Chasmmi's Winter Game - Discussion and Rules - SCORES ARE TALLIED RESULTS COUNTDOWN IN PROGRESS!!!

[chasmmi]

As the game is coming to an end, here is a nice easy SOTM for y'all to have a lil go at:

 

 

Between January 1st and the end of the game, what will be the 5 top grossing films? Films already in release are eligible but only there gross from January 1st onwards will count.

 

You must predict 5 films in order, no more no less and the scoring is as follows:

 

For each film in the correct position - 5000 points

 

For each film in the top 5 but in the wrong position - 2000 points

 

Get all 5 correct but not all in the correct spots - 5000 point bonus

 

Get all 5 correct and in the correct spots - 10000 bonus

 

A predicted film is not in the top 5 - lose 3000 points

 

A predicted film is not in the top 8 - lose 5000 points

 

 

Risk Free New Year Bonus!!!!

 

 

Predict the grosses of your 5 predicted films. (films must finish in the top 8 grosses to qualify for this bonus)

 

If you are correct within $5M for 5 out of the 5 films  get an extra 15k

 

If you are correct within $5M for 4 out of the 5 films  get an extra 10k

 

If you are correct within $5M for 3 out of the 5 films  get an extra 5k

 

 

Or you can abstain from everything for 3000 points.

 

 

TOP 5 GROSSERS ARE:

 

1. AMERICAN SNIPER 199.07

2. TAKEN 3 - 75.86

3. HOBBIT - 60

4. INTO THE WOODS - 57.43

5. UNBROKEN - 49.9

 

 

6. PADDINGTON 39.9

7. WEDDING RINGER 39.8

8. NATM 3 - 39.24

[chasmmi]

SOTM 11 ANSWER TIME (and I think where my own personal run of postive results comes to a screeching halt )

 

Another simpler question. SImply state yes or no whether the following films will reach the following targets by the end of the game:

 

1. Hobbit 3 - 265M  NO

 

2. NATM 3 - 110M  NO

 

3. Selma - 52.5M   NO

 

4. Big Hero 6 - 221M  NO

 

5. Mocking jay 337.5M  NO

 

6. Exodus 65.5M  NO

 

 

You can answer as many as you like and the scores are as follows (these are all total losses not cumulative - e.g. if you get two correct answers you get 5000 total positive points, not 2000 plus 5000)

 

1 correct answer 2000 points

2 correct answers 5000 points

3 correct answers 9000 points

4 correct answers 16000 points

5 correct answers 25000 points

6 correct answers 34000 points

 

1 incorrect answer: lose 1000 points

2 incorrect answers: lose 4000 points

3 incorrect answers lose 7000 points

4 incorrect answers lose 12000 points

5 incorrect answers lose 18000 points

6 incorrect answers lose 25000 points

 

 

If you get 100% of questions answered correct, you get a cumulative bonus of 1000 + 2000 + 3000 points and so on, up to the number of questions you answered.

 

(e.g. if you answer 4 questions and get 4 correct, you score 16000 points + 10000 bonus points (1+2+3+4 x 1000 points), but if you answer 5 and get 4 correct and 1 wrong then you score is 16000 - 1000 = 15000 points.

 

 

Deadline is the same as the weekly question deadline this week. You can abstain for 1000 points.

 

 

Good luck

Edited January 27, 2015 by chasmmi

[chasmmi]

And so the scores for those 3 SOTMs:

 

 

Name	SOTM 9	SOTM 10	SOTM 11
Geraldino	4000	3000	-12000
Dajk	2000	3000	-7000
Darkelf	6000	3000	-7000
Iceroll	-2000	3000	0
Laguy	0	0	1000
The Panda	0	0	0
Grim	12000	3000	-2000
Bcf26	2000	3000	8000
Wrath	8000	3000	-7000
Jajang	-50000	11000	2000
Grey Ghost	2000	3000	0
Blankments	6000	3000	1000
Spaghetti	16000	0	0
Telemachos	8000	18000	2000
Films	0	0	0
Chasmmi	2000	16000	-12000
Baumer	0	0	0
Punishment	0	0	0
Filmovie	0	0	0
Mahnamahna	0	0	0
CmasterClay	0	0	0
Alpha	0	0	0
Snoopy	0	0	0
Empire	-50000	3000	0
Avi	10000	13000	0

[Dementeleus]

Finally a decent result for me.

[chasmmi]

And marching on to SOTM 12:

 

A simple task for this week. Predict the weekend gross for any film this weekend that grosses above 5M for the 3 day.  

 

If your prediction is correct to within 5% you score 5000 points

 

If your prediction is correct to within 10% you score 2000 points

 

If your prediction is correct to within 15% you score 0 points

 

If your prediction is within 15.01-20% you lose 3000 points

 

If your prediction is within 20.01-30% you lose 6000 points

 

If your prediction is more than 30% out, you lose 10000 points.

 

If your predicted film fails to gross more than $5M, you lose 4000 points on top of any accuracy deductions (you cannot gain points for accuracy).  

 

If you predict 100% of your films to within 10% you score 1000 bonus points per film 

 

If you predict 100% of your films to within 5% you score 1000 + 2000 + 3000 and so on bonus points to the number of films predicted.

 

 

Abstaining wins you 2000 points

 

 

So the scoring brackets for all qualifying films are:

 

AMERICAN SNIPER - 64.63M

 

If your prediction is correct to within 5% you score 5000 points  61.39 - 67.87

 

If your prediction is correct to within 10% you score 2000 points  58.16 - 71.10

 

If your prediction is correct to within 15% you score 0 points   54.94 - 74.32

 

If your prediction is within 15.01-20% you lose 3000 points   51.71 - 77.54

 

If your prediction is within 20.01-30% you lose 6000 points   45.23 - 84.03

 

If your prediction is more than 30% out, you lose 10000 points  OUTSIDE THE ABOVE NUMBERS

 

 

BOY NEXT DOOR - 14.91M

 

If your prediction is correct to within 5% you score 5000 points  14.16 - 15.65

 

If your prediction is correct to within 10% you score 2000 points  13.41 - 16.40

 

If your prediction is correct to within 15% you score 0 points   12.67 - 17.14

 

If your prediction is within 15.01-20% you lose 3000 points  11.92 - 17.89

 

If your prediction is within 20.01-30% you lose 6000 points   10.43 - 19.38

 

If your prediction is more than 30% out, you lose 10000 points  OUTSIDE THE ABOVE NUMBERS

 

 

PADDINGTON - 12.27M

 

If your prediction is correct to within 5% you score 5000 points  11.65 - 12.88

 

If your prediction is correct to within 10% you score 2000 points  11.04 - 13.49

 

If your prediction is correct to within 15% you score 0 points   10.42 - 14.11

 

If your prediction is within 15.01-20% you lose 3000 points  9.81 - 14.72

 

If your prediction is within 20.01-30% you lose 6000 points   8.59 - 15.95

 

If your prediction is more than 30% out, you lose 10000 points  OUTSIDE THE ABOVE NUMBERS

 

 

WEDDING RINGER - 11.31M

 

If your prediction is correct to within 5% you score 5000 points  10.74 - 11.87

 

If your prediction is correct to within 10% you score 2000 points  10.17 - 12.44

 

If your prediction is correct to within 15% you score 0 points   9.61 - 13.00

 

If your prediction is within 15.01-20% you lose 3000 points  9.04 - 13.57

 

If your prediction is within 20.01-30% you lose 6000 points   7.91 - 14.70

 

If your prediction is more than 30% out, you lose 10000 points  OUTSIDE THE ABOVE NUMBERS

 

 

TAKEN 3 - 7.41M

 

If your prediction is correct to within 5% you score 5000 points  7.03 - 7.78

 

If your prediction is correct to within 10% you score 2000 points  6.67 - 8.15

 

If your prediction is correct to within 15% you score 0 points   6.29 - 8.52

 

If your prediction is within 15.01-20% you lose 3000 points  5.92 - 8.89

 

If your prediction is within 20.01-30% you lose 6000 points   5.18 - 9.63

 

If your prediction is more than 30% out, you lose 10000 points  OUTSIDE THE ABOVE NUMBERS

 

 

IMITATION GAME - 6.95M

 

If your prediction is correct to within 5% you score 5000 points  6.60 - 7.30

 

If your prediction is correct to within 10% you score 2000 points  6.25 - 7.65

 

If your prediction is correct to within 15% you score 0 points   5.90 - 7.99

 

If your prediction is within 15.01-20% you lose 3000 points  5.56 - 8.34

 

If your prediction is within 20.01-30% you lose 6000 points   4.86 - 9.04

 

If your prediction is more than 30% out, you lose 10000 points  OUTSIDE THE ABOVE NUMBERS

 

 

SELMA - 5.41M

 

If your prediction is correct to within 5% you score 5000 points  5.13 - 5.68

 

If your prediction is correct to within 10% you score 2000 points  4.86 - 5.95

 

If your prediction is correct to within 15% you score 0 points   4.59 - 6.22

 

If your prediction is within 15.01-20% you lose 3000 points  4.32 - 6.49

 

If your prediction is within 20.01-30% you lose 6000 points   3.78 - 7.03

 

If your prediction is more than 30% out, you lose 10000 points  OUTSIDE THE ABOVE NUMBERS

[chasmmi]

And finally the answers for SOTM 13:

 

Here we have it, the final SOTM

 

This is a happy little bonus for you all. No points can be lost, no abstaining, no risks. Just 8 happy questions for you all to predict and one happy little concept

 

There are 8 questions below, for each one you make a numerical prediction. the closer to the answer you are, the more points you win.

 

HOWEVER, if your prediction is higher than the correct answer, you score nothing for that question.

 

Scores are as follows:

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer score 100 (yes one hundred) points

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 50% score 250 points

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 25% score 1000 points

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 10% score 2000 points

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and is the 2nd or 3rd closest prediction (excluding high predictions) score 2000 bonus points (on top of the above)

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and is the closest prediction (excluding high predictions) score 4000 bonus points (on top of the above)

 

- If your prediction is higher than the correct answer score zero.

 

Your score will be rounded up to the nearest 1000 points for ease of scoring.

 

 

So the questions...

 

1. Predict American Sniper's 3 day weekend gross.  64.63M

 

 If your prediction is lower than the correct answer score 100 (yes one hundred) points

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 50% score 250 points  32.315M

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 25% score 1000 points  48.47M

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 10% score 2000 points  58.16M

 

 

2. Predict Mortdecai's Opening Saturday gross  1.74M

 

 If your prediction is lower than the correct answer score 100 (yes one hundred) points

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 50% score 250 points  0.87M

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 25% score 1000 points  1.30M

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 10% score 2000 points  1.56M

 

 

3. Predict Tak3n's weekend PTA. $2,548

 

 If your prediction is lower than the correct answer score 100 (yes one hundred) points

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 50% score 250 points  $1,274

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 25% score 1000 points  $1,911

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 10% score 2000 points  $2,293

 

 

4. Predict Blackhat's weekend drop. 57.3

 

 If your prediction is lower than the correct answer score 100 (yes one hundred) points

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 50% score 250 points  28.65%

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 25% score 1000 points  42.97%

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 10% score 2000 points  51.57%

 

 

5. Predict the difference in gross between Imitation Game this weekend and next weekend.  145K

 

 If your prediction is lower than the correct answer score 100 (yes one hundred) points

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 50% score 250 points  72.5K

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 25% score 1000 points  108.75K

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 10% score 2000 points  130.05K

 

 

6. Predict the gross difference between Selma and Into the woods  1.53M

 

 If your prediction is lower than the correct answer score 100 (yes one hundred) points

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 50% score 250 points  0.765M

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 25% score 1000 points  1.15M

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 10% score 2000 points  1.37M

 

 

7. Predict Mr. Turner's Weekend gross  162K

 

 If your prediction is lower than the correct answer score 100 (yes one hundred) points

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 50% score 250 points  81K

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 25% score 1000 points  121.5K

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 10% score 2000 points  145.8K

 

 

8. Predict Annie's Sunday gross. 395K

 

 If your prediction is lower than the correct answer score 100 (yes one hundred) points

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 50% score 250 points  197.5K

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 25% score 1000 points  298.75K

 

- If your prediction is lower than the correct answer and within 10% score 2000 points  355.5K

[chasmmi]

And the scores for those two SOTMs:

 

 

Name	SOTM 12	SOTM 13
Grim	9000	11000
Darkelf	12000	17000
Bcf26	2000	6000
Spaghetti	0	0
Wrath	2000	0
Iceroll	-3000	4000
Chasmmi	4000	13000
Laguy	2000	7000
Dajk	2000	9000
Grey Ghost	0	0
Geraldino	5000	11000
Telemachos	0	0
The Panda	0	0
Blankments	2000	8000
Filmovie	0	0
Films	0	0
Jajang	-1000	13000
Baumer	0	0
Punishment	0	0
Mahnamahna	0	0
CmasterClay	0	0
Alpha	0	0
Snoopy	0	0
Avi	2000	7000
Empire	0	0

[chasmmi]

And the table for all SOTM questions looks like:  (SOTM 1-7)

 

 

Name	SOTM 1	SOTM 2	SOTM 3	SOTM 4	SOTM 5	SOTM 6	SOTM 7
Darkelf	-7000	4000	1000	24000	14000	4000	-24000
Grim	8000	4000	18000	1000	1000	2000	-1000
Bcf26	-7000	6000	9000	4000	1000	2000	-4000
Chasmmi	-10000	5000	5000	7000	9000	16000	-12000
Laguy	2000	-10000	1000	16000	1000	2000	-2000
Dajk	8000	4000	-4000	13000	1000	2000	-8000
Geraldino	3000	4000	12000	10000	1000	-18000	-1000
Wrath	-10000	3000	6000	16000	3000	2000	0
Spaghetti	-7000	-12000	0	0	-3000	16000	-8000
Iceroll	-15000	4000	3000	6000	1000	2000	-2000
Grey Ghost	-15000	6000	1000	10000	6000	2000	-4000
Blankments	-10000	6000	-8000	10000	1000	2000	-12000
Telemachos	-15000	4000	1000	0	-3000	-12000	-4000
The Panda	8000	8000	-9000	0	-1000	2000	0
Filmovie	-15000	-10000	18000	0	0	2000	0
Films	3000	-10000	-5000	0	0	2000	0
Jajang	2000	5000	9000	7000	-10000	2000	-16000
Baumer	-15000	-10000	-5000	0	0	2000	0
Punishment	-15000	-10000	-5000	0	0	2000	0
Mahnamahna	-15000	-10000	-5000	0	0	2000	0
CmasterClay	-15000	-10000	-5000	0	0	2000	0
Alpha	-25000	-40000	-5000	0	0	2000	0
Snoopy	-15000	4000	-13000	-2000	3000	2000	-64000
Avi	-25000	4000	-2000	-30000	3000	-23000	-64000
Empire	-25000	-12000	-2000	5000	-6000	-11000	-64000

[chasmmi]

And SOTM 8-13 and totals:

 

Name	SOTM 8	SOTM 9	SOTM 10	SOTM 11	SOTM 12	SOTM 13	TOTAL
Darkelf	25000	6000	3000	-7000	12000	17000	72000
Grim	4000	12000	3000	-2000	9000	11000	70000
Bcf26	13000	2000	3000	8000	2000	6000	45000
Chasmmi	-1000	2000	16000	-12000	4000	13000	42000
Laguy	12000	0	0	1000	2000	7000	32000
Dajk	6000	2000	3000	-7000	2000	9000	31000
Geraldino	9000	4000	3000	-12000	5000	11000	31000
Wrath	2000	8000	3000	-7000	2000	0	28000
Spaghetti	25000	16000	0	0	0	0	27000
Iceroll	25000	-2000	3000	0	-3000	4000	26000
Grey Ghost	9000	2000	3000	0	0	0	20000
Blankments	9000	6000	3000	1000	2000	8000	18000
Telemachos	10000	8000	18000	2000	0	0	9000
The Panda	0	0	0	0	0	0	8000
Filmovie	0	0	0	0	0	0	-5000
Films	0	0	0	0	0	0	-10000
Jajang	11000	-50000	11000	2000	-1000	13000	-15000
Baumer	0	0	0	0	0	0	-28000
Punishment	0	0	0	0	0	0	-28000
Mahnamahna	0	0	0	0	0	0	-28000
CmasterClay	0	0	0	0	0	0	-28000
Alpha	0	0	0	0	0	0	-68000
Snoopy	0	0	0	0	0	0	-85000
Avi	0	10000	13000	0	2000	7000	-105000
Empire	11000	-50000	3000	0	0	0	-151000

 

Edited January 27, 2015 by chasmmi

[chasmmi]

So this is the final table you will see of anything until the final scores are announced. This is the current standings with just the big 4 Sections to go

 

(please note those sections have values worth up to the millions so even being 200k behind at this point means you are not out of the running. Once again i ask you not to make public how you or anybody else did if you have been tallying up yourself, I will aim to reveal all in about 22 hours time)

 

 

 

Position	Name	Weekly Scores	SOTM	Pre-Season	Total
1	Darkelf	428000	72000	100000	600000
2	Grim	464000	70000	60000	594000
3	Laguy	432000	32000	89000	553000
4	Iceroll	371000	26000	142000	539000
5	Chasmmi	365000	42000	125000	532000
6	Dajk	384000	31000	83000	498000
7	Geraldino	371000	31000	84000	486000
8	Bcf26	368000	45000	36000	449000
9	Blankments	347000	18000	80000	445000
10	Grey Ghost	282000	20000	140000	442000
11	Wrath	344000	28000	35000	407000
12	Spaghetti	336000	27000	40000	403000
13	Jajang	365000	-15000	5000	355000
14	Telemachos	106000	9000	78000	193000
15	Avi	239000	-105000	10000	144000
16	The Panda	50000	8000	65000	123000
17	Filmovie	23000	-5000	100000	118000
18	Empire	232000	-151000	10000	91000
19	Punishment	21000	-28000	90000	83000
20	Snoopy	142000	-85000	25000	82000
21	Alpha	52000	-68000	80000	64000
22	Mahnamahna	10000	-28000	50000	32000
23	Baumer	21000	-28000	-180000	-187000
24	Films	0	-10000	-180000	-190000
25	CmasterClay	10000	-28000	-180000	-198000

[Empire]

I am shocked I am not in last.

[chasmmi]

Not going to show the scores now, but this answer is now official for the Hunger Games Question:

 

 

1 - UK - $46.77M

2 - Germany - $39.0M 

3 - Australia - $28.6M

4 - France - $25.5M

5 - Mexico - $23.6M

 

 

POINT SYSTEM:

For each correctly predicted country, regardless of order you receive 15,000 points
For each country in the exact spot you receive 5,000 bonus points (so 20,000 total)
Call 3 of the top 5 correctly (any order) receive 15,000 bonus points
Call 4 of the top 5 (any order) receive 30,000 bonus points
Call top 5 (any order) receive 50,000 bonus points

For every incorrect film lose 10,000 points

 

 

Am double checking as much as I can right now

[darkelf]

Well, there's nowhere to go but down

[grim22]

I think everyone had China as one of the countries for the THG question. The China release date screwed everyone up for the question.

[chasmmi]

THE FIVE LOWEST (QUALIFYING) FILMS OF THE WINTER GAME WERE:
 

1. LAGGIES - 1.06M

2. PYRAMID - 2.75M

3. BEFORE I GO TO SLEEP 3.24M

4. INTERVIEW - 6.1M

5. LEFT BEHIND - 14.1M

 

For each correctly predicted film, regardless of order you receive 10,000 points
 

Call 3 of the top 5 correctly (any order) receive 50,000 bonus points
Call 4 of the top 5 (any order) receive 75,000 bonus points
Call top 5 (any order) receive 100,000 bonus points

 

•  

[chasmmi]

I think everyone had China as one of the countries for the THG question. The China release date screwed everyone up for the question.

 

As China never happened, the 6th choices got counted.

 

If China had announced a release date of Jan 22nd, that would have been spicy.

[Dementeleus]

Excellente.

[grim22]

As China never happened, the 6th choices got counted.

 

If China had announced a release date of Jan 22nd, that would have been spicy.

 

But the official question didn't define any backups. Letter of the law vs. Spirit of the Law, like the OW of American Sniper and the January OW record. And of course The Interview never going wide. We took the letter of the law for both of those.

 

What I mean by that is simple. This is how the question was phrased:

 

Predict the top 5 Overseas (so not USA/Canada) territories for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay over the duration of the game. 

 

Compare to the questions with backups counted

 

1. Predict the 15 films you believe will gross the highest over the course of the winter game. You may choose any film for this list so long as it receives a US cinematic release between the dates of October 3^rd and January 25^th. (So if you think some indie film, currently down for being released in 7 cinemas nationwide, is going to go on to break 200M, go ahead and predict it). 

You should also predict a backup 16^th and 17^th placed film which will be used in the event that one of your top 15 gets moved outside of the qualifying period. Therefore your top 15 predictions should look something like the following: 

 

 

 

2. So it’s simple predict the top 7 OW of winter (plus a backup 8^th OW in case of Calendar change) along with the predicted gross for the weekend. 

 

 

3. Predict the top 10 grossing films of the Winter (Plus 1 back up again)

 

 

There was no mention of a backup in case of the Hunger Games question.

Edited January 27, 2015 by grim22

[Blankments]

Nice, I might make top 10

[Dementeleus]

But the official question didn't define any backups. Letter of the law vs. Spirit of the Law, like the OW of American Sniper and the January OW record. And of course The Interview never going wide. We took the letter of the law for both of those.

 

What I mean by that is simple. This is how the question was phrased:

 

Predict the top 5 Overseas (so not USA/Canada) territories for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay over the duration of the game. 

 

Compare to the questions with backups counted

 

1. Predict the 15 films you believe will gross the highest over the course of the winter game. You may choose any film for this list so long as it receives a US cinematic release between the dates of October 3^rd and January 25^th. (So if you think some indie film, currently down for being released in 7 cinemas nationwide, is going to go on to break 200M, go ahead and predict it). You should also predict a backup 16^th and 17^th placed film which will be used in the event that one of your top 15 gets moved outside of the qualifying period. Therefore your top 15 predictions should look something like the following: 

 

 

 

2. So it’s simple predict the top 7 OW of winter (plus a backup 8^th OW in case of Calendar change) along with the predicted gross for the weekend. 

 

 

3. Predict the top 10 grossing films of the Winter (Plus 1 back up again)

 

 

There was no mention of a backup in case of the Hunger Games question.

The odd thing is I *have* a backup for that question, and I have no idea why I would've put it there if I hadn't been told to do it.