Tuesday #'s: TR: 2.0M | TFA: 1.57M | DG: 1.31M | RA2: 1.18M | 13H: 1.15M | 5W: 0.93M | TB: 0.89M

[mikeymichael]

Has Spizzer released an estimated tickets sold update for TFA. Figure it's probably around 85 million, right?

[druv10]

1 hour ago, mikeymichael said:

Has Spizzer released an estimated tickets sold update for TFA. Figure it's probably around 85 million, right?

It should be over 90M. I've it around 90-91M.

[terrestrial]

weekend prediction BO.com

 

Quote

Kung Fu Panda 3	Jan 29, 2016	Fox / DreamWorks	$51,000,000	$51,000,000
The Revenant (2015)	Dec 25, 2015	Fox	$11,200,000	$136,800,000
Star Wars 7	Dec 18, 2015	Disney	$10,000,000	$894,400,000
The Finest Hours	Jan 29, 2016	Disney	$9,200,000	$9,200,000
Fifty Shades of Black	Jan 29, 2016	Open Road	$8,500,000	$8,500,000
Ride Along 2	Jan 15, 2016	Universal	$7,000,000	$69,400,000
Dirty Grandpa	Jan 22, 2016	Lionsgate	$6,800,000	$22,000,000
The 5th Wave	Jan 22, 2016	Sony / Columbia	$5,900,000	$19,200,000
13 Hours... Benghazi	Jan 15, 2016	Paramount	$5,800,000	$42,300,000
The Boy	Jan 22, 2016	STX	$5,700,000	$19,300,000

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2016-01-weekend-forecast-kung-fu-panda-3-the-finest-hours-fifty-shades-of-black

[spizzer]

4 hours ago, mikeymichael said:

Has Spizzer released an estimated tickets sold update for TFA. Figure it's probably around 85 million, right?

 

We got a 120M domestic IMAX figure yesterday or Monday, so 13.6%.  3D was running pretty high even past the 3rd weekend (and then we got a weird report that suggested 3D share had jumped significantly since OW, I'm ignoring that), so given the relatively low share of gross done in the last couple of weeks, we're looking at 24-25% from RealD and 6-7% from PLF.  

 

That puts the tickets sold at 85-86M.  Every dollar from here on out basically increases the confidence that TPM attendance has been crossed.  Should cross 90M tickets once it hits the 915-920M range.

[tokila]

17 hours ago, spizzer said:

 

We got a 120M domestic IMAX figure yesterday or Monday, so 13.6%.  3D was running pretty high even past the 3rd weekend (and then we got a weird report that suggested 3D share had jumped significantly since OW, I'm ignoring that), so given the relatively low share of gross done in the last couple of weeks, we're looking at 24-25% from RealD and 6-7% from PLF.  

 

That puts the tickets sold at 85-86M.  Every dollar from here on out basically increases the confidence that TPM attendance has been crossed.  Should cross 90M tickets once it hits the 915-920M range.

I think one of your basic premises may be faulty. At least what I interpret your premise to be.

 

If IMAX is worth 13% of total gross, its % of total tickets would be much lower than that. TFA is also playing like a family film and even during the holidays it was disproportionately better during matinees. That is why we had much better than expected holds on both CMAS eve and NY eve (2 days where evening showing are stunted and  matinees are where the business is at). So while TFA has hadexceptional  business from IMAX, it still has around 750 million non IMAX.

 

I am not saying I think you are way off, but you could be low balling TFA's ticket sales by a few million. I think your estimate of 10.50 or so dollars a ticket is a bit high. You could be right, I just think you are weighting IMAX and evenings too heavily into the equation.

[spizzer]

20 hours ago, tokila said:

I think one of your basic premises may be faulty. At least what I interpret your premise to be.

 

If IMAX is worth 13% of total gross, its % of total tickets would be much lower than that. TFA is also playing like a family film and even during the holidays it was disproportionately better during matinees. That is why we had much better than expected holds on both CMAS eve and NY eve (2 days where evening showing are stunted and  matinees are where the business is at). So while TFA has hadexceptional  business from IMAX, it still has around 750 million non IMAX.

 

I am not saying I think you are way off, but you could be low balling TFA's ticket sales by a few million. I think your estimate of 10.50 or so dollars a ticket is a bit high. You could be right, I just think you are weighting IMAX and evenings too heavily into the equation.

 

I'm estimating % of IMAX tickets at 8.7% so I'm not sure what you mean?

[tokila]

3 hours ago, spizzer said:

 

I'm estimating % of IMAX tickets at 8.7% so I'm not sure what you mean?

ok, that is what I was wondering if what you are doing? What is your matinee split?

[spizzer]

32 minutes ago, tokila said:

ok, that is what I was wondering if what you are doing? What is your matinee split?

 

There's no feasible way to do a matinee split, we've never been provided the numbers outside of a few of the record-level opening days.

[tokila]

3 hours ago, spizzer said:

 

There's no feasible way to do a matinee split, we've never been provided the numbers outside of a few of the record-level opening days.

ya thats what I figured. I believe based on the daily trends TFA favors matinees compared to most movies. Thus the extremely good holds on NY Eve and CMas eve (2 days where evenings are weak).