Best Animated Feature - 2016: Zootopia, Moana, Kubo, Zucchini, Red Turtle

[Jason]

Something I'm not able to determine for certain is what voting system the animation branch members use to determine the list of nominees. All I can find in the Academy rule book is:

Quote

In the nominations voting, the marking and tabulation of all ballots shall be according to the preferential, weighted average, or reweighted range voting system.

 

I'm not sure what weighted average voting means in this context. Reweighted range voting is essentially scoring the films and then using their average scores to determine the nominees. That's a simplification, but the key point is that if that's the system being used, then there are a number of years where the animation branch members rated films quite differently than did critics. It's also a difficult system to "game" on purpose, making it hard to explain the "snubs" that have occurred.

 

On the other hand, if preferential voting is being used, then there's a very simple explanation for the "snubs": weak first choice support. (Typically, the order of elimination in preferential voting is based on weakest first choice support.) For example, imagine that in 2013, nearly all Disney/Pixar affiliates and some of the rest put Frozen as their first choice ahead of Monster's University. Imagine also that some portion of the Dreamworks affiliates put Croods as their first choice. Even if only a small number of members decide their first choice is Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, and The Wind Rises, it's very easy for Monster's University to have the weakest first choice support. It would therefore be eliminated, regardless of the strength of its second choice and third choice support.

 

This would also explain "snubs" such as Tangled (placed behind Toy Story 3) and The Lego Movie (lacking any contingent of members likely to put it as their first choice).

 

I don't think this necessarily means that any of Zootopia, Finding Dory, or Moana will miss a nomination this year, however. In the TS3/Tangled and Frozen/MU examples, there is a clear first choice. In 2012, both Brave and Wreck-It Ralph were nominated, and it's easy to imagine that neither of those would be consistently favoured over the other.

 

That being said, I suspect that it's much more likely for one of the three Disney releases to miss a nomination than either Kubo (there's definitely a first-choice stop motion contingent) or The Red Turtle (strongest indie/foreign contender).

Edited August 17, 2016 by Jason

[YM!]

If you ask me the nominees will most likely be:

Zootopia

Finding Dory/Moana (if this year there is 6 nominees it'll be both, but I'm guessing the former will probably be nominated rather than the latter)

Red Turtle

Kubo

The Little Prince

[Jason]

18 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Finding Dory/Moana (if this year there is 6 nominees it'll be both, but I'm guessing the former will probably be nominated rather than the latter)

Five nominees is the maximum.

Edited August 17, 2016 by Jason

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, Jason said:

Five nominees is the maximum.

Oh, must have been thinking about the Annies.

[WrathOfHan]

14 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

Cars itself missing in 2005 doesn't as much.

 

Cars got nominated though

[cannastop]

15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Cars got nominated though

Didn't win, which I guess was the point.

[BadAtGender]

21 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Didn't win, which I guess was the point.

 

No, he's right. I thought it had missed the nomination. 

[AniNate]

Sausage Party definitely isn't getting in if this animator controversy blows up

Edited August 18, 2016 by tribefan695

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Sausage Party definitely isn't getting in if this animator controversy blows up

Probably wasn't getting in anyways.

[AniNate]

The four popular picks at the beginning of the year still look like contenders, it's mainly a matter of how much traction the indies get at this point

[cannastop]

32 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

The four popular picks at the beginning of the year still look like contenders, it's mainly a matter of how much traction the indies get at this point

Four?

[BadAtGender]

4 hours ago, cannastop said:

Four?

 

Zoo, Dory, Moana, and Kubo, I'd guess.

[AniNate]

Kubo may have a shot at a win if it's a hit.

[cannastop]

On 8/18/2016 at 11:02 PM, tribefan695 said:

Kubo may have a shot at a win if it's a hit.

I'd say not really. Zootopia's not chopped liver, you know. Neither is Finding Dory. And we have no idea how people will receive Moana.

 

I have no idea how great Kubo is. But if we look at Rotten Tomatoes and box office returns as objective indicators, I'll take the position that it's not likely to win.

[AniNate]

Its RT is better than all those other films, and smaller movies have won on the strength of their critical reception before

[cannastop]

10 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Its RT is better than all those other films, and smaller movies have won on the strength of their critical reception before

It's not stronger by a huge amount, like Spirited Away's reception was.

[Jason]

1 hour ago, tribefan695 said:

Its RT is better than all those other films, and smaller movies have won on the strength of their critical reception before

 

51 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It's not stronger by a huge amount, like Spirited Away's reception was.

 

The other example that comes to mind, Wallace and Gromit (2005), was up against two other nominees (Corpse Bride, Howl's Moving Castle) that were also from smaller studios and not computer animated. The highest RT score of the computer animated films of that year was 64%, so it's unsurprising that none of them were nominated.

 

Also, I doubt that there's a Disney/Pixar voting bloc amongst the Academy at large that will split votes, it's more likely that the strength of the Disney releases of this year is likely to pull votes from the other nominees as well. However deserving it may be, I think it's very unlikely for Kubo to win.

Edited August 20, 2016 by Jason

[AniNate]

Just saying, don't count it out

[cannastop]

4 hours ago, Jason said:

 

 

The other example that comes to mind, Wallace and Gromit (2005), was up against two other nominees (Corpse Bride, Howl's Moving Castle) that were also from smaller studios and not computer animated. The highest RT score of the computer animated films of that year was 64%, so it's unsurprising that none of them were nominated.

 

Also, I doubt that there's a Disney/Pixar voting bloc amongst the Academy at large that will split votes, it's more likely that the strength of the Disney releases of this year is likely to pull votes from the other nominees as well. However deserving it may be, I think it's very unlikely for Kubo to win.

Yeah, the splitting the vote theory really makes no sense. It's not like politics where people will vote strategically: There's no such thing as a Theodore Roosevelt or Ross Perot like candidate that causes a spoiler effect.

[BadAtGender]

On 8/20/2016 at 6:44 AM, tribefan695 said:

Its RT is better than all those other films, and smaller movies have won on the strength of their critical reception before

 

It's not better than Zootopia, though?