Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Wrath

BOT User Tracking 8/26-28 Don't Breath, Hands of Stone, Mechanic: Resurrection, Southside with You

Recommended Posts

And I'm finally back in town (a little later than expected. Sorry I'm late this week, again), just in time for the fun times to finally end. But the predicting goes on, and we've got 4 wide opens this week (yes, really. A phrase which is going to come up a lot in the coming weeks), so lets get going.

 

Please provide your 8/26-28 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Don't Breath

Hands of Stone

Mechanic: Resurrection

Southside with You

 

Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Argh. I had this all typed up and ready on Friday but I forgot to actually click "Submit".

 

Welcome to the end of summer, where the movies suck and everyone takes a nap. Same thing happened last year.

 

Also, I'm dumping Southside because almost no one else predicted it thanks to the late decision to take it wide.

 

As usual, I totaled all predicts (9 for Don't Breathe and Mechanic, 5 for Southside and Hands of Stone. 5 is a new all-time record for fewest predicts for a movie, beating out "Meet the Blacks" at 7) and here are the results: 

 

Don't Breathe

Mean: 18.3M

Median: 18M

StnDev: 3.30M (revised StnDev: 3.46M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 18.32%

High: 24.5M

Low: 14.2M

 

BO.com 20M

Deadline 12.75M

MovieWeb 15.6M

ShowBuzzDaily 18.5M

Variety 12M

 

Hands of Stone

Mean: 1.2M

Median: 1M

StnDev: 0.43M (revised StnDev: 2.53)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 43.07%

High: 1.7M

Low: 0.75M

 

BO.com 2M 

Deadline 2.75M

MovieWeb 9.4M

ShowBuzzDaily 2.5M

Variety 3M

 

Mechanic: Ressurection

Mean: 5.8M

Median: 6M

StnDev: 1.43M (revised StnDev: 2.03)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.83%

High: 7.7M

Low: 3.3M

 

BO.com 6.75M 

Deadline 7M

MovieWeb 12.1M

ShowBuzzDaily 7.5M

Variety 7M

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As a fun trivia bit, we posted our worst-ever miss on Southside (6.04 standard deviations off), so its a good thing it got erased. Sadly, it was still a weak week for us.

 

Don't Breathe

Prediction: 18M +/- 3.3M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 26.41M (off by 8.4M, so 2.55 stndev)

Just terrible. On the bright side, no one was particularly close, and Deadline and Variety were catastrophically off whereas we were merely terrible. Best predict was Mahnamahna at 24.5M.

abcabcabcabc
abcabcabcabc

Hands of Stone

Prediction: 1M +/- 0.43M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 1.75M (off by 0.8M, so 1.74 stndev)

Not as terrible as Don't Breathe, but still pretty bad. On the bright side, we were actually the 2nd best predict because everyone else was too high. MovieWeb.com predicted 9.4M. I'm pretty sure they don't look at screen count at all when making their predicts. Our best predict was Arlborn at 1.7M

abcabc
abcabc
abcabc
abcabc

Mechanic: Resurrection

Prediction: 6M +/- 1.43M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 7.456M (off by 1.5M, so  1.02 stndev)

Almost, but not quite, an acceptably accurate predict. Sadly, we were the least accurate except for MovieWeb.com's 12.1M. Our best predict was DAJK at 7.7M.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.