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BOT User Tracking 8/26-28 Don't Breath, Hands of Stone, Mechanic: Resurrection, Southside with You

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And I'm finally back in town (a little later than expected. Sorry I'm late this week, again), just in time for the fun times to finally end. But the predicting goes on, and we've got 4 wide opens this week (yes, really. A phrase which is going to come up a lot in the coming weeks), so lets get going.


Please provide your 8/26-28 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Don't Breath

Hands of Stone

Mechanic: Resurrection

Southside with You


Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

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Argh. I had this all typed up and ready on Friday but I forgot to actually click "Submit".


Welcome to the end of summer, where the movies suck and everyone takes a nap. Same thing happened last year.


Also, I'm dumping Southside because almost no one else predicted it thanks to the late decision to take it wide.


As usual, I totaled all predicts (9 for Don't Breathe and Mechanic, 5 for Southside and Hands of Stone. 5 is a new all-time record for fewest predicts for a movie, beating out "Meet the Blacks" at 7) and here are the results: 


Don't Breathe

Mean: 18.3M

Median: 18M

StnDev: 3.30M (revised StnDev: 3.46M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 18.32%

High: 24.5M

Low: 14.2M


BO.com 20M

Deadline 12.75M

MovieWeb 15.6M

ShowBuzzDaily 18.5M

Variety 12M


Hands of Stone

Mean: 1.2M

Median: 1M

StnDev: 0.43M (revised StnDev: 2.53)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 43.07%

High: 1.7M

Low: 0.75M


BO.com 2M 

Deadline 2.75M

MovieWeb 9.4M

ShowBuzzDaily 2.5M

Variety 3M


Mechanic: Ressurection

Mean: 5.8M

Median: 6M

StnDev: 1.43M (revised StnDev: 2.03)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.83%

High: 7.7M

Low: 3.3M


BO.com 6.75M 

Deadline 7M

MovieWeb 12.1M

ShowBuzzDaily 7.5M

Variety 7M

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As a fun trivia bit, we posted our worst-ever miss on Southside (6.04 standard deviations off), so its a good thing it got erased. Sadly, it was still a weak week for us.


Don't Breathe

Prediction: 18M +/- 3.3M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 26.41M (off by 8.4M, so 2.55 stndev)

Just terrible. On the bright side, no one was particularly close, and Deadline and Variety were catastrophically off whereas we were merely terrible. Best predict was Mahnamahna at 24.5M.


Hands of Stone

Prediction: 1M +/- 0.43M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 1.75M (off by 0.8M, so 1.74 stndev)

Not as terrible as Don't Breathe, but still pretty bad. On the bright side, we were actually the 2nd best predict because everyone else was too high. MovieWeb.com predicted 9.4M. I'm pretty sure they don't look at screen count at all when making their predicts. Our best predict was Arlborn at 1.7M


Mechanic: Resurrection

Prediction: 6M +/- 1.43M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 7.456M (off by 1.5M, so  1.02 stndev)

Almost, but not quite, an acceptably accurate predict. Sadly, we were the least accurate except for MovieWeb.com's 12.1M. Our best predict was DAJK at 7.7M.

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