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Ezen Baklattan

CAYOM IV Actuals: The Last Hollow Darkness Beyond the Gauntlet of Homecoming

By Ezen Baklattan, in Create A Year Of Movies (CAYOM)

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

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Bold April predicts before tonight’s actuals:

 

Mass Effect does $100M-$115M OW

Can You Imagine has god like legs (it also falls between 20%-30% Easter weekend)

Earth Day has a $30M OW but misses a 2x multiple badly

Our City 2 does $40M/$135M

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Ezen Baklattan Global Phenomenon

Ezen Baklattan

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CHAPTER 4: WE'LL BANG, OKAY?

 

April 3-5: 'Imagine' A Better Hold

It didn't take a lot of imagination to think about what would be #1 this weekend, but the film's 32% drop is a very encouraging sign for the studio. We also saw legs stabilize for 'Pillars of Eternity' (how it holds next week will be a question) as well as 'One Piece' and 'Marked Up Time'. '...Spongebob...' actually beat tracking due to a high demand for theatrical shows in theatres, but it's unlikely that the film will have much in terms of legs due to theater fans likely running toward the theater opening weekend. (Indeed, the film dropped 12% on Saturday after being #2 on Friday) Because it was a filmed event, it did not have a Cinemascore. 'Bernarda Alba' had its final expansion, but with a B Cinemascore, it may not have really gotten enough to leg out strongly.

  1. Can You Imagine - $58,762,816 (2nd week) (-32.2%)
  2. Pillars of Eternity: The Hollow Vale - $11,550,653 (4th week) (-36.3%)
  3. Broadway Selects: The Spongebob Musical - $9,782,404 (NEW)
  4. Marked Up Time - $9,291,075 (3rd week) (-34.0%)
  5. Carnosaur - $7,032,101 (2nd week) (-44.8%)
  6. One Piece: The Journey Begins - $4,885,729 (5th week) (-34.3%)
  7. Khahn Bernarda Alba - $3,037,567 (4th week) (+3.1%)
  8. Blue and Gold - $2,189,913 (9th week) (-24.8%)
  9. The Female Man - $1,997,238 (6th week) (-31.7%)
  10. Pokemon: Rise of the Rockets - $1,843,711 (8th week) (-29.3%)

 

April 10-12: 'Mass Effect' Adept at Box Office (Easter Weekend)

While it's unlikely to match the numbers of the Space Opera trio in the game, probably because of light overexposure of the genre, 'Mass Effect' still managed a hell of a terrific opening weekend. The second biggest of the year so far, the film also earned an A Cinemascore with less families in attendance compared to 'Voltron' or 'Spark'. The film may stumble a bit in legs due to its fanbase, but should stabilize soon after. 'Safari Train' held decent numbers, but it should enjoy a nice hold in the weekend leading up to Earth Day. CYI continues to leg like a chamption, while POE held on fairly well against 'Mass Effect'.

  1. Mass Effect - $90,396,879 (NEW)
  2. Can You Imagine - $38,251,945 (3rd week) (-34.9%)
  3. Pillars of Eternity: The Hollow Vale - $7,197,419 (5th week) (-37.7%)
  4. Safari Trail - $6,032,641 (NEW)
  5. Marked Up Time - $5,520,739 (4th week) (-40.5%)
  6. Broadway Selects: The Spongebob Musical - $4,165,835 (2nd week) (-57.5%)
  7. Carnosaur - $3,329,905 (3rd week) (-52.6%)
  8. One Piece: The Journey Begins - $2,744,314 (6th week) (-43.8%)
  9. Khahn Bernarda Alba - $1,947,551 (4th week) (-35.9%)
  10. Blue and Gold - $1,288,231 (10th week) (-41.8%)

 

April 17-19: 'Earth Day' Grows Over Projections

While it did drop over 60%, 'Mass Effect' was still able to keep the weekend throne despite not being #1 on Friday. 'Earth Day', promising a fun, pulpy, and actually holiday based time, piqued interest and opened over $30m. With the titular holiday over the week and its C Cinemascore, don't expect it to hold that interest. 'Can You Imagine' had its best hold yet (as well as one of the top fourth weekends in CAYOM history) and could easily get over $350m at this point. 'Treasure Planet 2' also impressed with $1.7m from one show at select cities. It was enough to rank at #6 on Saturday.

  1. Mass Effect - $35,504,479 (2nd week) (-60.7%)
  2. Earth Day - $32,931,577 (NEW)
  3. Can You Imagine - $27,820,412 (4th week) (-27.3%)
  4. Safari Trail - $4,856,449 (2nd week) (-19.5%)
  5. Pillars of Eternity: The Hollow Vale - $4,829,300 (6th week) (-32.9%)
  6. Marked Up Time - $3,493,660 (5th week) (-36.6%)
  7. Broadway Selects: The Spongebob Musical - $2,210,389 (3rd week) (-46.9%)
  8. Carnosaur - $2,004,956 (4th week) (-39.8%)
  9. One Piece: The Journey Begins - $1,839,045 (7th week) (-33.0%)
  10. Treasure Planet: The Gauntlet of Midas - $1,672,371 (Amazon Prime Showing)

 

April 24-26: More Like 'Our City: Decline'

With a mix of mixed reviews, lack of buzz, and the hype of 'Can You Imagine' sweeping the family market, 'Our City: Growth' failed to match the heights of its predecessor with a relatively weak $37.5m opening weekend. However, the film did at least get an A- Cinemascore, so the families that did see it still enjoyed it. Mass Effect began to recover quickly, preparing for another Sci-Fi flick next week, while 'Can You Imagine' did face some damage from the new family film, but held on reasonably well. The film really is becoming something of a phenomenon. After the celebration of nature ended, 'Earth Day' and 'Safari Trail' stubled greatly. However, Some of the blockbusters from march began to show some fairly strong legs. Let's see how they hold into May.

  1. Our City: Growth - $37,529,830 (NEW)
  2. Mass Effect - $19,512,875 (3rd week) (-45.0%)
  3. Can You Imagine - $16,213,504 (5th week) (-41.8%)
  4. Earth Day - $10,416,868 (2nd week) (-68.4%)
  5. Pillars of Eternity: The Hollow Vale - $3,355,012 (7th week) (-30.5%)
  6. Safari Trail - $2,275,168 (3rd week) (-53.1%)
  7. Marked Up Time - $2,328,641 (6th week) (-33.3%)
  8. Broadway Selects: The Spongebob Musical - $1,274,435 (4th week) (-42.2%)
  9. Carnosaur - $1,222,795 (5th week) (-39.0%)
  10. One Piece: The Journey Begins - $1,169,745 (8th week) (-36.4%)
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4815162342 Global Phenomenon

4815162342

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*gets excited from all the Mission Impossible comparisons for Mass Effect since it bodes well for legs*

 

*Spaghetti gives it a very anti MI 2nd weekend drop*

 

:kitschjob:

 

 

Frakkin' Earth Day doing far better than it had any right to

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Ezen Baklattan Global Phenomenon

Ezen Baklattan

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12 hours ago, 4815162342 said:

*gets excited from all the Mission Impossible comparisons for Mass Effect since it bodes well for legs*

 

*Spaghetti gives it a very anti MI 2nd weekend drop*

 

:kitschjob:

 

 

Frakkin' Earth Day doing far better than it had any right to

It had a better third weekend hold than Fallout. :redcapes:

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

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7 minutes ago, cookie said:

The freshman sci-fi entries have had remarkably consistent debuts:

 

Spark 1: $94m

TSW: $91m

ME1: $90m

 

Voltron’s the only outlier with $108m.

When the lowest is Treasure Planet at $66M, you know the genre is strong.

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

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Projected Totals as of April 30th:

 

 

Mass Effect: $180M+

Can You Imagine: $300M+

Pillars: ~$210M

One Piece: ~$140M

Marked Up Time: $80M+

Blue and Gold: ~$245M

RoTR: ~$270M

The Female Man: ~$80M

 

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, cookie said:

AmDrag 2 underperforms?

My guess is either one of the two or both:

1.) Treasure Planet 2 underperforms

2.) Earthsong and/or Cabana Boys breaks out

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord
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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

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Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

My guess is either one of the two or both:

1.) Treasure Planet 2 underperforms

2.) Earthsong and/or breaks out

Third option: Treasure Planet 2 pulls a Dead Man’s Chest and increases exponentially.

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