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Tower

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Tower last won the day on January 31 2020

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  1. Weekend Estimates (04/09-10):01 (01) ¥265,000,000 ($2.4 million), -17%, ¥7,410,000,000 ($67.9 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK5 02 (04) ¥x94,000,000 ($860,000), -32%, ¥420,000,000 ($3.9 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) WK2 03 (03) ¥x89,000,000 ($815,000), -45%, ¥960,000,000 ($8.8 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK3 04 (02) ¥x64,000,000 ($585,000), -73%, ¥39,610,000,000 ($378.7 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK26 05 (06) ¥x48,000,000 ($440,000), -39%, ¥485,000,000 ($4.4 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK3 06 (05) ¥x48,000,000 ($440,000), -40%, ¥980,000,000 ($8.9 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK4 07 (07) ¥x33,000,000 ($300,000), -48%, ¥700,000,000 ($6.4 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK4 08 (08) ¥x32,000,000 ($295,000), -25%, ¥3,615,000,000 ($34.8 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK11 09 (11) ¥x31,000,000 ($285,000), -22%, ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), Ensemble Stars!! Music Garden Delay Viewing (Toho) WK210 (---) ¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), 0, ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million), 21 Bridges (Showgate) NEW 11 (09) ¥x23,000,000 ($210,000), -48%, ¥340,000,000 ($3.1 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK3A rough Sunday led to some sizable decline this weekend, which was already likely to have some bigger drops due to coming off of Spring Break.Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time held incredibly well due to sold out stage greetings on Sunday. It's earned over a whopping ¥2 billion more than its predecessor now and has a good bit left in the tank. I was projecting it'd finish around ¥8.5 billion, and I don't want to project any higher yet, but it is gradually increasing its chances of finishing a bit higher.
  2. Weekend Forecast (04/09-10):01 (01) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), -32%, ¥7,370,000,000 ($67.6 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK5 02 (03) ¥101,000,000 ($925,000), -38%, ¥970,000,000 ($8.9 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK3 03 (04) ¥x89,000,000 ($815,000), -35%, ¥415,000,000 ($3.8 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) WK2 04 (02) ¥x83,000,000 ($760,000), -65%, ¥39,630,000,000 ($378.9 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK26 05 (06) ¥x57,000,000 ($520,000), -28%, ¥495,000,000 ($4.5 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK3 06 (05) ¥x56,000,000 ($510,000), -30%, ¥990,000,000 ($9.0 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK4 07 (07) ¥x44,000,000 ($405,000), -31%, ¥710,000,000 ($6.5 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK4 08 (11) ¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), -10%, ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), Ensemble Stars!! Music Garden Delay Viewing (Toho) WK2 09 (08) ¥x33,000,000 ($300,000), -25%, ¥3,615,000,000 ($34.8 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK1110 (---) ¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), 0, ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million), 21 Bridges (Showgate) NEW 11 (09) ¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), -45%, ¥340,000,000 ($3.1 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK3Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time is starting to slow down, but will easily achieve a fifth weekend atop the box office. The numbers it's doing right now though are still good though. After Sunday, it'll have earned almost 40% more than the lifetime total of its predecessor.Demon Slayer: Mugen Train is going to experience a very large drop following two back-to-back weekend increases (big increases at 106% and 39% after that), but could still break the 26th Weekend Record as long as it drops less than 69.47%. Based on its Saturday pre-sales, they're on par with (slightly higher than) those from three weeks ago, so going with a weekend gross right around what it earned over its 23rd weekend.Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie will be right on the cusp of ¥1 billion after Sunday. My prediction is that it'll just barely be shy, but it'll be very close. Either way, it'll get there on either Sunday or Monday.Ensemble Stars!! is a bit of a shot in the dark. It held very well (sub-20%) on Friday-to-Friday, and its Saturday pre-sales are on par with last week, so it's *probably* in store for either a great hold (which I'm predicting) or a potential increase (too hard to say for limited releases like this). No numbers came out for it last weekend, but it came in 11th place in admissions, so it should get into the Top 10 in its second weekend. Went ahead and put Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 here since it could remain in the Top 10 if either it holds better, and/or 21 Bridges comes in a little lower. Also, Freaky has a slight chance of cracking the Top 10 in its debut, but it performed a bit worse than 21 Bridges on Friday, so I'm predicting it'll miss. Whatever happens, these three films should rank 10th-12th in some way. And as you can see, the market is slowing down a good bit right now, so expect Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet to take advantage of this next weekend as every theater (and it's opening in a record amount) is going to give it their largest screen (and probably second and/or third largest screens too) with as many showings as they can.
  3. Weekend Actuals (04/02-03):01 (01) ¥320,547,250 ($2.9 million), -39%, ¥6,898,613,200 ($63.2 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK4 02 (03) ¥237,102,600 ($2.2 million), +39%, ¥39,436,585,950 ($377.1 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK25 03 (02) ¥161,869,400 ($1.5 million), -37%, ¥764,065,300 ($6.9 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK204 (---) ¥138,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥193,422,750 ($1.8 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) NEW 05 (05) ¥x79,650,400 ($720,000), -30%, ¥869,449,650 ($7.9 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK3 06 (04) ¥x78,898,530 ($714,000), -33%, ¥375,000,000 ($3.4 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK2 07 (07) ¥x63,998,080 ($579,000), -24%, ¥609,600,130 ($5.6 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK3 08 (09) ¥x45,120,000 ($408,000), -19%, ¥3,536,144,870 ($34.1 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK10 09 (06) ¥x44,965,500 ($407,000), -58%, ¥285,907,400 ($2.6 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK2 10 (08) ¥x43,413,490 ($393,000), -43%, ¥356,987,470 ($3.2 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK3Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time continues its very impressive reign atop the box office in its fourth weekend, avoiding a 40% drop despite coming off a boosted third weekend (giveaway event/stage greetings). The farewell to the classic series sold an additional 196,321 admissions over the weekend, and has sold 4,513,374 admissions after just 28 days in release. Its current total stands 29% above the final total of its predecessor, and 15% higher than the combined totals of the first two films in the Rebuild (Shin) series. I'm expecting a finish around ¥8.5 billion (~$85 million) on 5.5 million admissions, as long as no other events are planned. The nearly 10 year wait that was delayed by numerous delays every couple years, but the fans were certainly willing to wait as long as they needed in order to send the series off on the highest note in the series.Demon Slayer: Mugen Train managed to increase once again (selling 153,000 admissions) after already jumping over 100% last weekend. To my knowledge, excluding expanding/limited releases, this is the first time ever (1998-) that a film has managed an increase following a prior 100% increase (106%) the weekend prior. Its 25th weekend also broke the 25th Weekend Record by 181%. 171-day admissions are up to 28,576,157. It's a little over ¥500 million away from its ultimate milestone of ¥40 billion that this recent push was intended to get it over, and it most certainly will, probably by the end of April.Monster Hunter held pretty well, and has locked up a total above ¥1 billion (~$10 million). Depending on how it holds going into Golden Week at the end of the month, and what it can earn over Golden Week itself, it could still approach ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million). Due to the exchange rate creeping slightly more unfavorable in recent weeks, I don't think it'll be able to surpass the U.S. to become the film's #1 market, but it'll get fairly close.Signal: The Movie settled for third place, selling 101,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 315 screens, and sold 142,535 admissions over its first three-days in release. Nothing exciting here, maybe even perhaps on the lower-end of expectations given the solid TV ratings for the series, but it's fair enough (the theater count being closer to 300 than 350 may indicate Toho wasn't too confident in it either).Loved Like a Flower Bouquet was starting to slow down with some regular drops over the past couple of weeks, but it's back again in its tenth weekend with a sub-20% decline. Its run has been extraordinary, and it's now among the Top 10 Leggiest Films (or highest multipliers) for a wide release. And it probably has enough in the tank to add another ¥200 million or so to its cumulative total.
  4. Weekend Estimates (04/02-03):01 (01) ¥306,000,000 ($2.8 million), -42%, ¥6,880,000,000 ($63.0 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK4 02 (03) ¥235,000,000 ($2.1 million), +37%, ¥39,445,000,000 ($377.1 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK25 03 (02) ¥154,000,000 ($1.4 million), -40%, ¥745,000,000 ($6.7 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK204 (---) ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) NEW 05 (05) ¥x79,000,000 ($714,000), -30%, ¥850,000,000 ($7.7 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK3 06 (04) ¥x78,000,000 ($705,000), -34%, ¥355,000,000 ($3.2 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK2 07 (07) ¥x62,000,000 ($560,000), -26%, ¥610,000,000 ($5.6 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK3 08 (06) ¥x46,000,000 ($416,000), -57%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.2 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK2 09 (09) ¥x44,000,000 ($397,000), 0, ¥3,525,000,000 ($34.0 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK10 10 (08) ¥x41,000,000 ($371,000), -47%, ¥355,000,000 ($3.2 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK3Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time continues its very impressive reign atop the box office in its fourth weekend. Dropping over 40% is certainly rather high, but it's honestly pretty solid since it benefitted from both a giveaway event last week and, more importantly, stage greetings last Sunday. I believe its run will be normal from here on out, unless they decide on something later in its run or over Golden Week, so expect a finish around ¥8.5 billion (~$80 million). Such a total would be a whopping 60% higher than its predecessor. This was the meaning of a dream farewell for a long-running series.Demon Slayer: Mugen Train managed to increase once again after already jumping over 100% last weekend. I can't recall any film, excluding expanding limited releases, that's ever managed to increase again following a prior increase over 100%. Its 25th weekend broke the 25th Weekend Record by over 180% as well... [Insert continuously mind-blowing image here]. It's a little over ¥500 million away from its ultimate milestone of ¥40 billion that this recent push was intended to get it over, and it most certainly will. I want to see what the next few dailies look like, but I'm currently expecting it'll get there something during the third week of this month.Monster Hunter held decently, and has locked up a total above ¥1 billion (~$10 million). Depending on how it holds going into Golden Week at the end of the month, and what it can earn over Golden Week itself, it could still approach ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million). Finally, it's possible that Ensemble Stars!! cracked the Top 10. It's outside in admissions, by only a couple thousand admissions it seems, but it might have a very high average ticket price that gets it there in revenue. But without knowing that right now, I excluded it.
  5. Weekend Forecast (04/02-03):01 (01) ¥338,000,000 ($3.1 million), -36%, ¥6,910,000,000 ($63.3 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK4 02 (03) ¥265,000,000 ($2.4 million), +55%, ¥39,475,000,000 ($377.4 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK25 03 (02) ¥159,000,000 ($1.4 million), -38%, ¥745,000,000 ($6.7 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK204 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) NEW 05 (04) ¥x84,000,000 ($760,000), -29%, ¥355,000,000 ($3.2 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK2 06 (05) ¥x82,000,000 ($740,000), -27%, ¥850,000,000 ($7.7 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK3 07 (07) ¥x72,000,000 ($650,000), -15%, ¥620,000,000 ($5.7 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK3 08 (06) ¥x51,000,000 ($460,000), -52%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.2 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK209 (---) ¥x50,000,000 ($450,000), 0, ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million), Ensemble Stars!! Music Garden Delay Viewing (Toho) NEW 10 (08) ¥x46,000,000 ($415,000), -40%, ¥360,000,000 ($3.3 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK3So unlike last weekend, I thoroughly tracked Demon Slayer's ticket sales going into the weekend, and have looked over Sunday's, and I'm very confident this forecast will be much closer than last weekend. It's on track to sell up to 50% of all its available tickets nationwide on Saturday (which I mentioned as attainable in my post above tracking it), which will get it right around 100,000 admissions for the day for ~¥150 million or a bit higher for Saturday alone. And if it does come in below the forecast this weekend, it's going to be like a regular prediction just falling a bit short. It's also going to beat Evangelion on Saturday at take #1 for one final day. And this will be by far the Biggest 25th Weekend ever, adding another record to its list. I'll have that chart up later tonight, but I'm pretty sure it's only going to have Demon Slayer and Your Name. on it. Everything else had either finished their runs already, or have fallen well outside the Top 10 (well outside) and likely don't even come in at ¥5/¥10 million. I also think Spirited Away fell out of the Top 10 in its 25th week (it'd return several weeks later following its Oscar win), so its weekend gross is unavailable for several weeks.
  6. This will be my first time trying this one, so it will be quite of work getting a list together. Looking at the previous list though, I can see an obvious omission of the fantastic score in Gremlins 2:
  7. Weekend Actuals (03/27-28):01 (01) ¥528,017,500 ($4.8 million), -22%, ¥6,078,211,750 ($55.6 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK302 (---) ¥256,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥358,467,350 ($3.2 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) NEW 03 (07) ¥170,040,650 ($1.6 million), +106%, ¥39,038,746,700 ($373.4 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK2404 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥159,000,000 ($1.5 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) NEW 05 (02) ¥113,386,650 ($1.0 million), -49%, ¥636,793,450 ($5.8 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK206 (---) ¥x90,000,000 ($823,000), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) NEW 07 (03) ¥x84,373,330 ($769,000), -44%, ¥405,591,700 ($3.7 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK2 08 (04) ¥x76,485,740 ($698,000), -34%, ¥250,274,930 ($2.3 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK2 09 (06) ¥x55,000,000 ($503,000), -29%, ¥3,400,000,000 ($32.9 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK9 10 (05) ¥x49,679,800 ($453,000), -47%, ¥622,446,700 ($5.7 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) WK3Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time holds strong in first place for a third-consecutive weekend, and achieved the 10th highest three-week total ever in the process. The series finale sold 329,999 admissions in its third outing, and has now sold a very impressive 3,961,480 admissions after 21 days in release. Spring Break is already being kind to it, so we should expect a finish perhaps near ¥9 billion ($80/85 million) which will certainly be among the biggest films of the year (likely top 3 position).Monster Hunter enjoyed a solid debut in second place, selling 162,000 admissions over the weekend on 472 screens, and sold 230,872 admissions over its first three-days of release. Given the size of the fanbase, several million strong, this opening isn't anything to write home about, but it's a pretty good start and actually the biggest opening weekend it's had worldwide. It's also the biggest opening weekend for a Hollywood film since Tenet way back in September. And furthermore... add this to the ever-growing list of Milla Jovovich hits in Japan, as the market is already its highest grossing international market after just three days, giving Jovovich 9 films now with Japan as its best intl. market.Demon Slayer: Mugen Train took big advantage of its Dolby Cinema expansion and fifth giveaway event, rising back into the Top 3 in its 24th week of release. Its 24th weekend also broke the 24th weekend record by 68%. The final countdown to ¥40 billion has begun now that it's less than ¥1 billion away, and with Spring Break this week and its sixth (and presumably final) giveaway event starting on April 3rd, it should get there a lot sooner than originally expected.Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction was a nice surprise over the weekend. it sold 88,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 343 screens, and sold 119,000 admissions over its first three-days of release. Reaching ¥1 billion (~$10 million) will be a challenge, but this is a good enough start to get it there if it develops legs just a bit above average. And the box office can always use more of these mid-level sort of performers.Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 remains an estimate. I'll update it when/if its actual figures come in. I'm pretty sure its 3-day numbers will be released, and if the estimate is close, it'll have more or less earned the same amount as its predecessors did over their first 2-days. Had this film opened on Saturday like its predecessors, its 3-day likely would have been very close to the 2-day given how fanbase-driven the series is. Also, interestingly, Loved Like a Flower Bouquet remains an estimate. I'm not really sure why it wasn't included in the initial reporting this morning, as it's a wide holdover still in the top 10, but I'll update it when it becomes available.
  8. Weekend Forecast (03/27-28):01 (01) ¥543,000,000 ($5.0 million), -20%, ¥6,050,000,000 ($55.6 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK3 02 (07) ¥330,000,000 ($3.0 million), +300%, ¥39,195,000,000 ($374.9 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK2403 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) NEW04 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) NEW 05 (02) ¥121,000,000 ($1.1 million), -45%, ¥610,000,000 ($5.6 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK206 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($915,000), 0, ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) NEW 07 (03) ¥x94,000,000 ($860,000), -38%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.7 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK2 08 (04) ¥x68,000,000 ($620,000), -41%, ¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK2 09 (06) ¥x64,000,000 ($585,000), -29%, ¥3,410,000,000 ($33.0 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK9 10 (05) ¥x59,000,000 ($540,000), -36%, ¥620,000,000 ($5.7 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) WK3Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time will threepeat atop the box office, and should deliver a great hold. It has a giveaway event starting today (although it's an illustration of the poster, so not too appealing), but perhaps more importantly, it has stage greetings on Sunday that were previously delayed due to restrictions in Tokyo when it opened. Those showings are largely sold out. Saturday is likely going to look a bit deceiving (possibly off 30-40%) since business will be more focused on Sunday than normal.Demon Slayer: Mugen Train is heading for a massive increase, thanks to its fifth giveaway event beginning today, in addition to its Dolby Cinema expansion. It's also been given more premium format showings, and some bigger screens at many locations. It's difficult to really predict an increase given the circumstances, only that it's going to be several hundred percent based on the data currently available. Its average ticket price is also likely to see a bump from the additional premium format showings and expensive Dolby Cinema tickets, so the increase in revenue will be a bit higher than that in admissions. Also, if it wasn't pretty clear, this will break the Biggest 24th Weekend Record by a significant amount.Monster Hunter looks like it may settle for a third place debut, but it seems on track to break ¥200 million, and if it does, I'd consider it a mild success given it could have outright bombed. As mentioned, Hollywood adaptations of domestic material is frequently ignored by audiences. If it does open around the forecast above, it should safely get above the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone and might (big might) be able to approach ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million) if Spring Break is kind to it. Japan will be its biggest international market, of course, and it could approach the U.S. tally (if Spring Break is kind).Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 did well on Friday, and has good Saturday pre-sales, so I'm just going with a similar debut as both of its predecessors. It's on a few less screens than the last film, and might be hindered a bit from fewer night showings since theaters in and around Tokyo are still largely closing early (8/9PM), so it might come in a little below them.Nomadland also opens this weekend, but it might not crack the Top 10. It was borderline on Friday, coming in tenth place based on estimated admissions, and it'll probably be borderline over the weekend, too. So if it does make the Top 10, bumping Brave: Gunjyo Senki out, look for a debut around what Brave makes over the weekend. And lastly, since this is a weekend before a holiday period (Spring Break), Sunday could be stronger than it usually is since evening showings are typically stronger than normal.
  9. Weekend Actuals (03/20-21):01 (01) ¥679,390,200 ($6.2 million), -42%, ¥4,934,996,800 ($45.3 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK202 (---) ¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥295,703,350 ($2.7 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) NEW03 (---) ¥151,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥193,293,620 ($1.8 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) NEW04 (---) ¥115,351,700 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥115,351,700 ($1.1 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) NEW 05 (02) ¥x92,945,350 ($853,000), -35%, ¥464,036,850 ($4.3 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) WK2 06 (03) ¥x89,967,470 ($826,000), -24%, ¥3,219,382,840 ($31.3 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK8 07 (04) ¥x82,748,000 ($760,000), -05%, ¥38,780,137,650 ($371.1 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK23 08 (06) ¥x36,128,300 ($332,000), -32%, ¥1,122,403,350 ($10.4 million), Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi (Toho) WK6 09 (07) ¥x33,037,200 ($303,000), -25%, ¥221,958,850 ($2.1 million), Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) WK310 (---) ¥x32,200,000 ($296,000), 0, ¥x44,617,200 ($0.4 million), Minari (Gaga) NEWVery solid weekend, and now seeing some of the drops of the bottom half of the Top 10, it's quite good considering Saturday was weakened just a bit. >Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time easily retained its #1 position atop the box office, selling an additional 423,398 admissions over the weekend, bringing its 14-day admissions up to a remarkable 3,222,873. Its two-week total, boosted by the Monday opening, is the second highest ever recorded in the market. And its 14-day total is only ¥395 million away from surpassing its predecessor's lifetime total to become the highest-grossing film in the franchise. Talk about a proper sendoff to a series! Expect a total between ¥7-8 billion (~$65-75 million), though it's still early enough to change that projection a bit higher if Spring Break boosts it enough. >Caution, Hazardous Wife debuted well in second place, selling 166,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 335 screens, and 225,938 admissions over its first three-days in release. This is good, especially ahead of a big holiday period. Spring Break is one of the more demographic-bias holiday periods (targeting children/teens/young adults), so this one may not benefit as much, but any benefit could be the difference it settling around ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million), or possibly aiming for ¥2 billion (~$20 million). >Tom & Jerry comes in third place, selling 119,000 admissions on 354 screens over the weekend, and sold 153,478 admissions over its first three-days in release. Now, this opening might look low, but anyone who follows this market should know that non-Disney animated films, especially a hybrid-animated film targeting children or families, almost always bombs. There just isn't much of a market, or demographic, for such releases here. So this start is quite good (and 140% higher than Raya...) and could get it to ¥1 billion (~$10 million) since it should do well over the holiday period next week. >Healin' Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams settled for fourth place, selling 96,114 admissions over the weekend across 237 screens. This series (which produces 3 films a year) has its up and down trends, and it's been on a down for a couple years now, but this opening is 9.5% higher than the previous entry late last year. Perhaps it's the start of it going on an upward trend again soon. >Loved Like a Flower Bouquet! I tell you what, this is one surprising release, and it's going to belong on any list of top performing films in the future. It already became Tokyo Theater Co.'s highest grossing film ever, and its multiplier is approaching 17 now with plenty left in the tank. Romance films also play very well over Spring Break, so we can expect a very strong performance next week. It may be a challenge, but ¥4 billion (~$40 million) is in play. Only 8 films (on record) have achieved multipliers over 20, and this one could become the 9th. >Demon Slayer: Mugen Train enjoys the best hold in the Top 10, but what's new? I've probably made the same or similar mention over a dozen times now in these weekly updates. After 23 weeks in release, it has sold 28,124,311 admissions. The film has several big events coming up in the next two weeks, the first two happening this Saturday when it opens in Dolby Cinema theaters and begins its 5th giveaway event. So don't expect to see this one slowing down for at least a couple more weeks. >Minari rounded out the Top 10. Its weekend admissions aren't available, but it sold 33,081 admissions over its first three-days of release on 143 screens.
  10. Glad to see Nomadland come away with nothing, it's so boring and a was a chore to get through, easily the worst of the best picture nominees. As for the winner, while I voted for Promising Young Woman, but Wolfwalkers is very good and a worthy winner.
  11. Weekend Forecast (03/20-21):01 (01) ¥706,000,000 ($6.5 million), -40%, ¥4,850,000,000 ($44.5 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK202 (---) ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥245,000,000 ($2.2 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) NEW03 (---) ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) NEW04 (---) ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), Healin' Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) NEW 05 (04) ¥x99,000,000 ($905,000), +15%, ¥38,805,000,000 ($371.3 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK23 06 (02) ¥x94,000,000 ($860,000), -34%, ¥440,000,000 ($4.1 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) WK2 07 (03) ¥x87,000,000 ($800,000), -26%, ¥3,105,000,000 ($30.2 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK8 08 (06) ¥x36,000,000 ($330,000), -32%, ¥1,115,000,000 ($10.4 million), Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi (Toho) WK6 09 (05) ¥x32,000,000 ($295,000), -41%, ¥375,000,000 ($3.5 million), The Sun Does Not Move (Warner Bros.) WK310 (---) ¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), 0, ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million), Minari (Gaga) NEWShould be a pretty solid weekend ahead. Not only is Evangelion 3.0+1.0 still posting big numbers (should be just ¥500 million or so shy of becoming the highest film in the franchise already after Sunday!), but all the openers are looking at pretty solid starts based on Friday and Saturday pre-sales. Also note: Saturday may be bigger than Sunday this weekend since it's Vernal Equinox Day and Movix Cinema Day. When a national holidays lands on a Saturday, it doesn't typically provide too much of a boost, but they can assist with keeping some films from dropping too much if they were looking at a noticeable decline. Similar situation with Movix Cinema Day. They're the third busiest chain, so their discount day (every 20th) provides a small boost to admissions across the board, but any benefit in revenue is generally quite small since it's mostly cancelled out by the discounted tickets. However, with both a national holiday and a chain discount day, I wouldn't be too surprised if a few films take particular advantage and have stronger than expected Saturdays.
  12. Weekend Actuals (03/13-14):01 (---) ¥1,177,445,400 ($10.8 million), 0, ¥3,338,422,400 ($30.6 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) NEW02 (---) ¥143,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥203,333,000 ($1.9 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) NEW 03 (02) ¥117,742,290 ($1.1 million), -25%, ¥2,963,923,020 ($28.0 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK7 04 (01) ¥x86,848,300 ($796,000), -47%, ¥38,612,613,550 ($369.5 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK22 05 (03) ¥x54,225,510 ($497,000), -50%, ¥301,541,660 ($2.8 million), The Sun Does Not Move (Warner Bros.) WK2 06 (04) ¥x53,569,200 ($491,000), -37%, ¥1,035,823,150 ($9.7 million), Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi (Toho) WK5 07 (05) ¥x44,303,400 ($406,000), -30%, ¥153,393,750 ($1.4 million), Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) WK2 08 (06) ¥x40,073,460 ($367,000), -34%, ¥687,982,300 ($6.5 million), Liar x Liar (Asmik Ace) WK4 09 (09) ¥x16,466,300 ($151,000), -46%, ¥2,360,693,100 ($22.7 million), Poupelle of Chimney Town (Toho) WK12 10 (12) ¥x15,200,120 ($139,000), -42%, ¥512,744,200 ($4.8 million), Under the Open Sky (Warner Bros.) WK5>Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time kicks the Spring box-office season off with a record start, setting a NEW March Opening Weekend Record, a record that hasn't been broken in 15-years! What's even more impressive is that due to multiple scheduling delays, it was decided to release the film on March 8th, last Monday, yet it claimed the March OW record and opened 4% higher than its predecessor. This strategy and first seven days couldn't have gone any better. The final film of the franchise sold a very impressive 760,882 admissions over the weekend frame across 466 screens, and over its first seven-days in release, reached a whopping 2,194,533 admissions. It will begin to slow down, likely sooner rather than later, but the hype surrounding its debut, as well as the finale factor, could result in a higher than expected finish. As it stands, assuming it slows down now, I think the goal (besides outgrossing its predecessor's 5.33 billion to become the #1 film in the franchise) is ¥7 billion (~$65 million) and 4.5 million admissions. >Brave: Gunjyo Senki enjoyed a fair debut in second place, selling 111,000 admissions over the weekend on 333 screens, and sold 156,687 admissions over its first three-days in release. I don't think this is quite good enough to get it to ¥1 billion ($10 million), but a lucrative Spring Break period could help it get there. >Loved Like a Flower Bouquet achieved a major milestone this weekend--becoming Tokyo Theater, Co.'s highest grossing film ever! The WOM hit surpassed In This Corner of the World to become the distributor's top grossing film, and is far from finished. It's going to exceed ¥3 billion in just a couple days, and is easily on track to reach ¥3.5 billion (~$33 million) at least. And depending on how it performs over Spring Break, I wouldn't even rule out ¥4 billion (~$38 million) with how incredibly well it's been performing since day one. >Demon Slayer: Mugen Train slipped to fourth place after reclaiming the #1 spot in its 21st weekend last week, dropping a pretty heavy 47%, largely from the loss of its 4DX showings. The drop was closer to 35% in admissions though, clearly an indication audiences haven't had enough of this one just yet. And Aniplex/ufotable are responding once again to the demand, having just announced two more giveaway events (on March 27th and April 3rd) to thank moviegoers. Also, fans will get to reexperience the film once again if they choose at Dolby Cinema locations when it opens there on March 27th as well. This is usually the time when even the leggiest of films begin to exit the stage, but Demon Slayer is far from finished. >Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi broke the ¥1 billion milestone over its fifth-weekend of release, becoming the first compilation film to ever accomplish this feat. Expect big, big things when the next film, Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet, opens next month (spoiler: Evangelion won't hold the biggest OW of 2021 for long). >Raya and the Last Dragon held decently, but if it was going to recuperate from its awful opening weekend, it needed to do much, much better than this. It's likely going to stall out around ¥250 million ($2.5 million). The market is open for Disney to return to the box office proper, without a same-day Disney+ release and higher asking prices to show their films (this weekend is further proof Toho Cinemas and others aren't going to go along with that and will refuse to play them), so hopefully having the title of Biggest Bomb Ever under their banner will make them think twice with their future films.
  13. Weekend Actuals (03/06-07):01 (02) ¥162,614,700 ($1.5 million), +04%, ¥38,446,447,150 ($368.0 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK21 02 (01) ¥156,172,270 ($1.5 million), -11%, ¥2,648,856,990 ($25.1 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK603 (---) ¥109,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥145,167,030 ($1.3 million), The Sun Does Not Move (Warner Bros.) NEW 04 (03) ¥x84,561,550 ($780,000), -14%, ¥916,953,550 ($8.6 million), Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi (Toho) WK405 (---) ¥x63,000,000 ($581,000), 0, ¥x70,277,600 ($0.7 million), Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) NEW 06 (04) ¥x60,564,540 ($560,000), -24%, ¥584,529,860 ($5.5 million), Liar x Liar (Asmik Ace) WK307 (---) ¥x35,000,000 ($323,000), 0, ¥x50,000,000 ($0.5 million), Aria the Crepuscolo (Shochiku) NEW 08 (10) ¥x33,989,600 ($313,000), -02%, ¥1,738,598,150 ($16.8 million), Pokémon: Coco (Toho) WK11 09 (06) ¥x30,538,700 ($280,000), -27%, ¥2,325,558,250 ($22.4 million), Poupelle of Chimney Town (Toho) WK11 10 (05) ¥x27,115,480 ($251,000), -49%, ¥1,817,636,340 ($17.6 million), Gintama: The Final (Warner Bros.) WK9 11 (08) ¥x26,543,020 ($244,000), -34%, ¥604,821,600 ($5.7 million), Jukai Village (Toei) WK4 12 (09) ¥x26,110,260 ($241,000), -34%, ¥470,844,820 ($4.4 million), Under the Open Sky (Warner Bros.) WK4>Demon Slayer: Mugen Train retakes the #1 spot in its 21st week of release after being knocked off six weeks ago. This is its third consecutive weekend increase as well, giving it the second biggest 21st weekend ever, only behind Your Name. by a small margin. It has now sold 27,879,659 admissions after 143-days in release. ¥40 billion and 30 million admissions are both still in play, though with Evangelion taking its 4DX screens on Monday, it's going to be a slow, slow crawl. >Loved Like a Flower Bouquet was dethroned after five weeks atop the box office, but it continues to have stellar holds. Its sixth weekend here is only down 19% versus its opening weekend. A truly incredible performance here, and it will become Tokyo Theater, Co.'s highest grossing film ever next week. >The Sun Does Not Move managed to come in above ¥100 million, so fair enough start. It sold 79,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 355 screens, and sold 107,444 admissions over its first three days in release. >Raya and the Last Dragon has an estimated weekend gross based on its 3-day total, but it appears to have just made the Top 5! That's obviously a much better ranking than it was possibly looking at going into the weekend, but this opening is still terrible in every regard and only looks "good" now since I lowballed it. Over its first three days in release, it sold 55,395 admissions on 253 screens. As mentioned, Toho Cinemas and Movix Cinemas decided not to show the film, likely from a dispute with Disney over its release. It's frustrating since Disney is such a reliably strong market for Disney and it should have opened much higher than this. Worst-case should have been a Brave (WDA and Pixar's worst performing film in the market prior to this, or since the 90s) type of opening and performance, but its opening is almost 60% below Brave. I guess it'll be aiming for ¥500 million ($5 million), but March is crowded and it's likely going to suffer from consecutive screen/showtime cuts now given its poor opening and it could gross much less.
  14. Weekend Forecast (03/06-07):01 (02) ¥163,000,000 ($1.5 million), +05%, ¥38,435,000,000 ($367.9 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK21 02 (01) ¥158,000,000 ($1.5 million), -10%, ¥2,640,000,000 ($25.0 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK603 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), The Sun Does Not Move (Warner Bros.) NEW 04 (03) ¥x69,000,000 ($640,000), -30%, ¥895,000,000 ($8.3 million), Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi (Toho) WK4 05 (04) ¥x62,000,000 ($575,000), -22%, ¥575,000,000 ($5.4 million), Liar x Liar (Asmik Ace) WK306 (---) ¥x40,000,000 ($370,000), 0, ¥x55,000,000 ($0.5 million), Aria the Crepuscolo (Shochiku) NEW 07 (06) ¥x34,000,000 ($315,000), -18%, ¥2,320,000,000 ($22.3 million), Poupelle of Chimney Town (Toho) WK11 08 (08) ¥x30,000,000 ($280,000), -24%, ¥605,000,000 ($5.7 million), Jukai Village (Toei) WK4 09 (05) ¥x29,000,000 ($270,000), -45%, ¥1,815,000,000 ($17.6 million), Gintama: The Final (Warner Bros.) WK9 10 (09) ¥x28,000,000 ($260,000), -30%, ¥470,000,000 ($4.4 million), Under the Open Sky (Warner Bros.) WK4 11 (07) ¥x27,000,000 ($250,000), -33%, ¥565,000,000 ($5.3 million), First Love (Kadokawa) WK4 12 (10) ¥x27,000,000 ($250,000), -20%, ¥1,730,000,000 ($16.7 million), Pokémon: Coco (Toho) WK1113 (---) ¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), 0, ¥x30,000,000 ($0.3 million), Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) NEWWell, well, well... First, I expanded the Top 10 since the bottom half and a couple films below is very contested and could go many ways in terms of positions, but also to include Raya. And second... new #1?Demon Slayer: Mugen Train is eyeing a possible return to the #1 spot this weekend, having been dethroned by Loved Like a Flower Bouquet six-weeks ago. I'm "predicting" it to happen, at least in revenue, but don't take this forecast to mean it definitely will. A weekend increase, its third in a row, is looking good (not guaranteed, so don't be disappointed if it would drop) following more prefectures having their restrictions lifted and resuming evening/night showings again. But it's going to be a very close race between these two films.The Sun Does Not Move should have a decent enough start. If it can open above ¥100 million, which I believe it can, I think Warner Bros. will be mostly satisfied. Hoping it can get close to ¥150 million though, which would make the battle for #1 this weekend even more interesting.Raya and the Last Dragon is going to struggle to debut in the Top 10. The bottom of the top 10 is really contested this weekend, so it can still make it, but the fact that it may just barely make it there, much less miss entirely, is horrendous. This is definitely one of the biggest bombs that I can recall. Disney animated features have been easy money for almost a decade now (and Pixar for 20+ years), with Japan very often being their best international markets, or at least one of them, so to see this fall so far is sad. Hopefully Disney rethinks their strategy with Disney+ in the market for future releases, because Toho Cinemas (as well as Movix Cinemas) sent them a pretty big message this weekend by not showing Raya. Of course, the decision to not show the film might have more to do with Disney possibly requesting a higher share of revenue than normal. Either way, if it's one or both reasons, rethink this for future releases, please. Disney+ makes them so much money though, I wouldn't expect a sudden change.
  15. March 2021 Release Schedule:03/05:[355] - The Sun Does Not Move (Warner Bros.) [244] - Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) [156] - Baseball Girl (Long Ride) [x76] - Aria the Crepuscolo (Shochiku) [x61] - Raiders of the Lost Ark (United Cinema) *4DX re-release*03/08: (Any remaining restrictions lifted) [346] - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara)03/12:[332] - Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) [144] - Shimajiro and the Flying Ship (Toho Video Division) [x96] - Love, Life and Goldfish (Giggly Box) [x53] - The Outpost (Klockworx)03/19:[335] - Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) [334] - Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) [123] - Minari (Gaga) [119] - You're Not Normal, Either (Avex Pictures)03/20: National Holiday - Vernal Equinox Day03/20:[238] - Healin' Good Pretty Cure The Movie: GoGo! Big Transformation! At the Town of Dreams (Toei)03/25-04/06: Holiday Period - Spring Break 2021 (exact dates may vary)03/26:[348] - Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) [325] - Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) [182] - Nomadland (Disney) [125] - Thomas & Friends: Marvelous Machinery! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) [x64] - Girls und Panzer The Finale: Chapter 3 (Showgate)_______________________________Note: Preliminary theater counts in [brackets] are subject-to-change, but rarely do. Note (2): Release schedule posting excludes most very limited releases (<50 locations) unless from a notable distributor. Note (3): Holidays and holiday periods bolded in red.General Theater Count Key: <100: Limited / 101-149: Wide / 150-199: Below Average / 200-249: Average / 250-299: Above Average / 300-349: Very Wide / >350: Optimal.
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