Blue Beetle | August 18, 2023 | WB/DC | Director - Angel Manuel Soto | First DC Universe Character!

[ChipDerby]

3 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

It's all very simple. I'm not sure why so many people are struggling with understanding the DCU. The Suicide Squad characters are all IN but their shows and movies are OUT. Blue Beetle the movie is OUT but Blue Beetle the character is IN. Robert Pattinson is still Batman but not the DCU Batman who will be some other dude. Gal Gadot is OUT unless she's standing in the room with us in which case we pretend she's IN! Jason Mamoa is IN but...I guess as a different lesser known character? Anyway...this will all be explained in the pamphlet they hand out when you go see Superman Legacy. Just please, if you see Gal Gadot, have the decency to hide your pamphlet under your seat so she doesn't see.

 

OK now do the MCU. Not sure why people are throwing a fit about a movie universe that hasn't even started yet, when the MCU has been doing this stuff for 15 years

[Arlborn]

8 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

I question that after Shazam 2 results. Shazam's reception looks like fluke.

First movie was a good family movie with heart, the second movie wasn't, how is that so hard to understand?

 

They've made a bad sequel to a good movie because they misunderstood what made their movie good, that happens all the time but it doesn't mean the first becomes retroactively bad all of sudden.

 

 

 

Anyways, happy for BB's reviews! I wish it all the best.

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Arlborn

[ZeroHour]

5 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

OK now do the MCU. Not sure why people are throwing a fit about a movie universe that hasn't even started yet, when the MCU has been doing this stuff for 15 years

LOL how is making a joke throwing a fit? Maybe lighten up a little dude. I'm sure I'll jump at the chance to make fun of the MCU soon enough.

[HummingLemon]

24 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Elemental 2.0 on the cards? It's not getting to 500m but I can see it slowly grind its way to 300m with better than average CBM legs over the next few weeks

Shang-Chi with a 98% verified score only had 2.99x legs. Guardians 3 with a deflated opening and excellent word of mouth only did 3.03x legs. Even Across the Spider-Verse with The Dark Knight level reviews and universal acclaim only did 3.15x legs.

 

The max is probably 3x legs.

[HummingLemon]

Why is everyone suddenly on this "woohoo it's gonna outgross The Flash" train? Breaking it down I don't see how this breezes past The Flash or anything. Let's say this $4M previews, generous 7.5x IM, 3x legs, 40/60 DOM/OS split = $225M worldwide. That's still 16% away from outgrossing The Flash

Edited August 16, 2023 by HummingLemon

[Dragoncaine]

Man, I thought 70% RT would be a good result yesterday. Good for Blue Beetle! Very solid chance it dips into the 70s since top critics aren't liking it as much, but much better initial result than I expected.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

8 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

Shang-Chi with a 98% verified score only had 2.99x legs. Guardians 3 with a deflated opening and excellent word of mouth only did 3.03x legs. Even Across the Spider-Verse with The Dark Knight level reviews and universal acclaim only did 3.15x legs.

 

The max is probably 3x legs.

Those all opened huge though, it's much easier to get a big multiplier when you open small (e.g. Elemental) and when there is little competition. Not to mention most people are going in with low expectations so if it ends up being better than they expected that will lead to a good cinemascore and better legs. It doesn't have to be Dark Knight level for that, in fact ATSV is a prime example of a very well received movie having mediocre legs because expectations were dashed for many (by the cliffhanger).

 

Elemental similarly had low expectations by many as it was panned by critics and everyone was calling it a bomb before it even opened and it went on to do very well.

[Dragoncaine]

RT is down to 84% with 64 reviews, so this will continue fluctuating significantly for like another 100 reviews

[HummingLemon]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Those all opened huge though, it's much easier to get a big multiplier when you open small (e.g. Elemental) and when there is little competition. Not to mention most people are going in with low expectations so if it ends up being better than they expected that will lead to a good cinemascore and better legs. It doesn't have to be Dark Knight level for that, in fact ATSV is a prime example of a very well received movie having mediocre legs because expectations were dashed for many (by the cliffhanger).

 

Elemental similarly had low expectations by many as it was panned by critics and everyone was calling it a bomb before it even opened and it went on to do very well.

Elemental is an original animated film. Blue Beetle is a superhero film. One of these automatically has better legs than the other

 

Also a similar example, Shazam (2019) only had 2.62x legs despite positive reception. Yes it had to compete with the biggest movie ever but Endgame is not the difference between 2.62x legs and Elemental legs (which will end around 5x).

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

14 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

Elemental is an original animated film. Blue Beetle is a superhero film. One of these automatically has better legs than the other

 

Also a similar example, Shazam (2019) only had 2.62x legs despite positive reception. Yes it had to compete with the biggest movie ever but Endgame is not the difference between 2.62x legs and Elemental legs (which will end around 5x).

I'm not expecting 5x legs, but better than average CBM legs, 3.5-4x with the lack of competition is doable if the audience score is good.

[Bob Train]

54 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

Shang-Chi with a 98% verified score only had 2.99x legs. Guardians 3 with a deflated opening and excellent word of mouth only did 3.03x legs. Even Across the Spider-Verse with The Dark Knight level reviews and universal acclaim only did 3.15x legs.

 

The max is probably 3x legs.

No because it has Cinema day on the 2nd weekend and Labor day weekend as the third weekend. 3.5x-4x legs doable imo, if reception is good.

Edited August 16, 2023 by Bob Train

[HummingLemon]

13 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

I'm not expecting 5x legs, but better than average CBM legs, 3.5-4x with the lack of competition is doable if the audience score is good.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think only MCU/DCEU films to achieve a multiplier like that are Black Panther, Wonder Woman, and Guardians of the Galaxy 1 (Far From Home and Aquaman don't count). Two of those were cultural phenomenons and the other one is notorious for excellent word of mouth.

 

Not saying it's impossible to achieve a multiplier like that, but I doubt it

[El Gato]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Why is THIS the movie Latinos have chosen to get behind like with buying out theater screen showings? I mean I doubt we are getting a sequel.

 

Seems this should have happened with Encanto. More likely for an Encanto 2.

Because we already got behind Coco and now we need a live action win! Hasn’t gone good for us so far in live action 

[Bob Train]

50 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Those all opened huge though, it's much easier to get a big multiplier when you open small (e.g. Elemental) and when there is little competition. Not to mention most people are going in with low expectations so if it ends up being better than they expected that will lead to a good cinemascore and better legs. It doesn't have to be Dark Knight level for that, in fact ATSV is a prime example of a very well received movie having mediocre legs because expectations were dashed for many (by the cliffhanger).

 

Elemental similarly had low expectations by many as it was panned by critics and everyone was calling it a bomb before it even opened and it went on to do very well.

ATSV had very good legs actually. I’m pretty sure it’s the leggiest CBM sequel every, only behind The Dark Knight obviously. Not counting pre-2000 CBMs or midweek openers.  CBMs just inherently have a level of frontload that other movies don’t.

 

And that’s despite ITSV being the 2nd most frontloaded December-released animated movie ever behind Beavis and Butthead. ATSV had very impressive legs.

Edited August 16, 2023 by Bob Train

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

4 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think only MCU/DCEU films to achieve a multiplier like that are Black Panther, Wonder Woman, and Guardians of the Galaxy 1 (Far From Home and Aquaman don't count). Two of those were cultural phenomenons and the other one is notorious for excellent word of mouth.

 

Not saying it's impossible to achieve a multiplier like that, but I doubt it

Again, all of those opened huge so were capped by how much they could grow.

 

We know there is an audience out there for decent DC movies. Recently Black Adam (far from decent but probably the best DC movie recently) did $168m. If Blue Beetle is good enough to draw back in that audience then it will slowly get there, maybe not $168m for a 5x+ multi but certainly 3.5-4x is on the table.

 

Elemental similarly had everyone write off 4x multi or better after the OW because "only a couple Pixar movies have legged out that well" but very few Pixar movies had the advantage of opening super small. The only CBM to open (in recent times) to what BB is tracking to do is Shazam 2 and from the looks of things this looks to be far better received so it's not gonna have a sub-2x multi, just like how Elemental didn't follow Lightyear's trajectory.

[HummingLemon]

Domestic total over or under DS2's opening day ($90.1M)?

[HummingLemon]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Again, all of those opened huge so were capped by how much they could grow.

 

We know there is an audience out there for decent DC movies. Recently Black Adam (far from decent but probably the best DC movie recently) did $168m. If Blue Beetle is good enough to draw back in that audience then it will slowly get there, maybe not $168m for a 5x+ multi but certainly 3.5-4x is on the table.

 

Elemental similarly had everyone write off 4x multi or better after the OW because "only a couple Pixar movies have legged out that well" but very few Pixar movies had the advantage of opening super small. The only CBM to open (in recent times) to what BB is tracking to do is Shazam 2 and from the looks of things this looks to be far better received so it's not gonna have a sub-2x multi, just like how Elemental didn't follow Lightyear's trajectory.

Ok fine. $30M opening, 3.75x legs, $112.5M domestic total. 40/60 split assuming it's not DOA overseas. $281M worldwide. Still $19M short of breakeven point

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon said:

Ok fine. $30M opening, 3.75x legs, $112.5M domestic total. 40/60 split assuming it's not DOA overseas. $281M worldwide. Still $19M short of breakeven point

That's sorta what I'm thinking with a possible breakout in a LATAM country pushing it close to $300m, it'll have to crawl there IMO.

[HummingLemon]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

That's sorta what I'm thinking with a possible breakout in a LATAM country pushing it close to $300m, it'll have to crawl there IMO.

K I copied the link to this comment and set reminder in Reddit, I'm coming back to this after the second weekend drop

[ChipDerby]

5 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

K I copied the link to this comment and set reminder in Reddit, I'm coming back to this after the second weekend drop

 

You really don't have to