Pypa94 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 50 Shades of Grey - what I predicted has happend - we have a new opening record. Now it will drop hard over next few weeks but it should reach at least multiplier of 2 ( it's still a terrible multiplier for Polish Box Office ) I hope that after shitty reviews and WOM 50 shades of crap will do not more than 150k (at least 80% drop) I will be satisfied seeing that xd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pypa94 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Which movie had best multiplier? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chimpo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I last 15 years? I have no idea but there were many with at least 7x multiplier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norbar Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I hope that after shitty reviews and WOM 50 shades of crap will do not more than 150k (at least 80% drop) I will be satisfied seeing that xd The reviews are not as bad as you think. Around 1/3 of them are ok. Some people like the movie. The drop will be steep because the movie was very frontloaded but 80% is not realistic. Last year a polish comedy went -81% but that movie was a huge marketing lie and people wanted their money back in large groups. I'd say you should expect Twilight drops so the movie should be at 250-300 next weekend. If you adjust for valentines it can go in the low 200s but lower would be really strange. Which movie had best multiplier? A few of the good ones in recent years: The best offer - close to 10x (8.4k opening, 81k total) La Grande Belazza over 20x (4.1k opening 83k total) Cristiada 30x (4.1k opening 122k total) But those were small ones. From the big ones: Now you see me was 6.5x (87 to 557) Intouchables was over 10x (68 to over 760) Bogowie was also slightly below 10x Overall good liked movies do between 6-10 depending on the competition and dates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pypa94 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 The reviews are not as bad as you think. Around 1/3 of them are ok. Some people like the movie. The drop will be steep because the movie was very frontloaded but 80% is not realistic. Last year a polish comedy went -81% but that movie was a huge marketing lie and people wanted their money back in large groups. I'd say you should expect Twilight drops so the movie should be at 250-300 next weekend. If you adjust for valentines it can go in the low 200s but lower would be really strange. A few of the good ones in recent years: The best offer - close to 10x (8.4k opening, 81k total) La Grande Belazza over 20x (4.1k opening 83k total) Cristiada 30x (4.1k opening 122k total) But those were small ones. From the big ones: Now you see me was 6.5x (87 to 557) Intouchables was over 10x (68 to over 760) Bogowie was also slightly below 10x Overall good liked movies do between 6-10 depending on the competition and dates. Thanks for info if only BOTFA had that Bogowie multiplier haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norbar Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Thanks for info if only BOTFA had that Bogowie multiplier haha The movie wasn't liked enough. Also the market has changed and making any significant number over 2mil is hard because there is much more competition and higher ticket prices also price out some viewers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norbar Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 (edited) Looking at tommorow reservations and the onees during the week 50 shades may pass 1.5mil after the weekend. The drop won't be as big as some here hope Edited February 19, 2015 by norbar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pypa94 Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looking at tommorow reservations and the onees during the week 50 shades may pass 1.5mil after the weekend. The drop won't be as big as some here hope mehhh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chimpo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Pypa94 have some faith. More people in cinemas is good thing. We are talking Box Office here. I know that 50 Shades of Grey is crap but I'm actually happy that it broke records because that's what Box Office is all about If last years up in attendence will change into a growing trend then FSOG records could be broken very fast because more tickets sold will mean that more 500k or more 1M+ movies will have to happen each year. Looks like we will already have two 1.5 milion+ admission movies in 2 months and I have a feeling that Disco Polo will make over 1 milion admissions too ( unless it's a huge crap ). And look at opening weekends in last few years and just this year. We already had 2 huge openings and we at least have 3 more to come this year ( Spectre, SW:Episode VII and Mocking Jay p2.) that should do 300k+ just on OW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norbar Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Pypa94 have some faith. More people in cinemas is good thing. We are talking Box Office here. I know that 50 Shades of Grey is crap but I'm actually happy that it broke records because that's what Box Office is all about If last years up in attendence will change into a growing trend then FSOG records could be broken very fast because more tickets sold will mean that more 500k or more 1M+ movies will have to happen each year. Looks like we will already have two 1.5 milion+ admission movies in 2 months and I have a feeling that Disco Polo will make over 1 milion admissions too ( unless it's a huge crap ). And look at opening weekends in last few years and just this year. We already had 2 huge openings and we at least have 3 more to come this year ( Spectre, SW:Episode VII and Mocking Jay p2.) that should do 300k+ just on OW. The movie (DIsco Polo) is good but you may be overexaggerating. Look at presales for this weekend. 750k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chimpo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So far Disco Polo previews have similar popularity as Bogowie in the cinemas I checked. Next weekend will be crucial, this one could only help spread WOM if the movie is good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norbar Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So far Disco Polo previews have similar popularity as Bogowie in the cinemas I checked. Next weekend will be crucial, this one could only help spread WOM if the movie is good. Yes but there is far less of them. Also you also assume the movie has great legs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pypa94 Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Deadline reports 7,8M $ after 2nd weekend here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pypa94 Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 How much did BOTFA gross in USD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norbar Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 They had 4.6m$ after first weekend so that's less than double. Still it should be around 1.5m viewers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chimpo Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It should be above 1.4 milion admissions that's for sure. I think we can say that 2 milion admissions is a lock for this movie. 3 movies with 2 milion+ admissions in 6 months Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pypa94 Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 They had 4.6m$ after first weekend so that's less than double. Still it should be around 1.5m viewers So what drop from wknd? 55%? I'm curious how did it manage at weekdays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norbar Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So what drop from wknd? 55%? I'm curious how did it manage at weekdays It's 70 and the movie is a tad below 1.4m viewers. Deadline is as often inaccurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chimpo Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 (edited) Weekend numbers (20-22 February 2015 ) 50 Shades of Grey 242 044 / 1 388 491 The SpongeBob Movie:SOOW 105 953 / 105 953 (new) American Sniper 102 844 / 103 473 (new) Pinguins of Madagascar 97 835 / 1 429 997 Shaun the Sheep 40 571 / 122 937 Wkreceni 2 24 502 / 718 514 Kingsman: The Secret Service 20 847 / 85 739 Barbie in Princess Power 15 139 / 100 577 The Loft 13 593 / 13 593 ( new ) Ziarno Prawdy 12 851 / 251 956 Total admissions : 767 869 admissions 50 Shades of Grey - huge drop as expected. If it will managed to cut those drops to 40-50's then it should reach 2 milion admissions, but at this point I'm not sure if it will manage to do it, at least not after this 72% drop. SpongeBob Movie - very good opening with a very good avg per copy. This should do 500k+ since it's a kids movie based on popular character and kids movie always have good legs. American Sniper - also a very good opening. This will be only Oscar contender that will actually have a decent box office result. Pinguins of Madagascar - another good hold. If it will manage to keep those good holds then I think finish should be somewhere between 1.8-2.0 milion admissions. Edited February 25, 2015 by chimpo 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norbar Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Friends who have seen Disco Polo on yesterdays premiere claim it's very good. x7 multiplier may be the minimum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
