BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[George Parr]

On 5/5/2022 at 3:29 PM, SupermanLego said:

Tbf i'm sure Europe prefers street level Heroes etc.....HP is the only key magical franchise they take ?

I'd say that is the exact opposite of how the situation really looks like.

 

Europe loves fantasy. Lord of The Rings, Harry Potter, The Hobbit, Star Wars, Pirates of the Carribbean, those were all big players in the recent past, far more so than anything else apart from James Bond, which is kind of the only other big brand that play a role.

 

Marvel has been a big rise lately, but that is a fairly recent thing. Both it and DC had some successes in the past that went way beyond the norm (e.g. 2002 Spiderman), but were generally not that big of a deal outside of that. That has more to do with those being very americanized heroes though, and less so with the magical element.

 

Overall, fantasy elements have worked the best when looking at Europe as a whole, outside of maybe animation. You may see local movies from other genres that are really big in some parts of Europe, but those tend to have a hard time being a big hit everywhere, often due to language barriers.

[Taruseth]

On 5/5/2022 at 10:33 AM, Taruseth said:

So might go something like this:

160k

100k

170k

250k

200k

would be 880k 5-day. Should get to 2M from this.

If it goes more like this:

160k

100k

200k

300k

240k

for 1000k 5-day, I'd say it has a shot at 3m total (so doubling the first)

Still sticking with my prediction for 880k 5-day. From this it obviously should get way further than 2M more like 2.5M.

 

Saturday trend:

DSMOM: 850k (New; so 690k 4-day Wend)

FB3: 115k (-39% for roughly 2480k)

Lost City: 70k (-32 % for 400k total)

Downton Abbey II: 50k (-17% / -28% if including Previews)

Biene Maja 3: 50k (New)

Northman: 30k (-36% for 175k total)

Sonic 2: 25k (-54 % for roughly 860k total)

 

Second highest 4-day opening this year for DSMOM behind only FB3 (723k)  and fourth highest corona-opening / this decade.

 

I

Edited May 7, 2022 by Taruseth

[Taruseth]

23 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Still sticking with my prediction for 880k 5-day. From this it obviously should get way further than 2M more like 2.5M.

 

Saturday trend:

DSMOM: 850k (New; so 690k 4-day Wend)

FB3: 115k (-39% for roughly 2480k)

Lost City: 70k (-32 % for 400k total)

Downton Abbey II: 50k (-17% / -28% if including Previews)

Biene Maja 3: 50k (New)

Northman: 30k (-36% for 175k total)

Sonic 2: 25k (-54 % for roughly 860k total)

 

Second highest 4-day opening this year for DSMOM behind only FB3 (723k)  and fourth highest corona-opening / this decade.

 

I

I don't think it will get that high, probably will end up around the first trend so 800k, yesterday evening the shows looked less full than I expected when I looked through them.
I don't think Saturday increased as much and Sunday might drop more, it's not exactly a mothers day movie and weather seems to be good overall, aside from some rain in Bavaria and some clouds of the middle of Germany (but warm especially in the middle and the south).

 

160k

100k

170k

210k

160k

 

Would get it to 800k. Hoping it can hit that. Could maybe get to around 2.25-2.4m with this.

So it will most definitely end up behind FB3 at the end of the year.

 

So we have JW3, Minions and Avatar left with a chance for a "goldene Leinwand" (3m admissions) and maybe Liebesdings. I really hope Avatar will be an amazing movie, so we get a movie that hopefully gets above 9m admissions (even though I expect 4-6m).

[charlie Jatinder]

Around 675K till SAT. SUN Mark think may drop big. I am thinking 150-160K.

Edited May 8, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Brainbug]

24 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Would get it to 800k. Hoping it can hit that. Could maybe get to around 2.25-2.4m with this.

So it will most definitely end up behind FB3 at the end of the year.

 

So we have JW3, Minions and Avatar left with a chance for a "goldene Leinwand" (3m admissions) and maybe Liebesdings. I really hope Avatar will be an amazing movie, so we get a movie that hopefully gets above 9m admissions (even though I expect 4-6m).

 

Weather is amazing here, which is bad ofc. I could see it seriously impacting Sat and Sun holds.

 

Also, dont hope foolishly for something like 9M for Avatar 2 please. This is not 2002. This 2022, where everything sucks.

[charlie Jatinder]

I hope Avatar is around 7M so that gives India good chance to beat Germany, though likely will be around 8M I guess.

[Taruseth]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Around 675K till SAT. SUN Mark think may drop big. I am thinking 150-160K.

Oh, so Saturday was not as bad as I feared.

That means something like

160k

100k

170k

245k (or maybe a bit lower and a bit better Friday).

150k

Would at least get it to 825k - a Sunday drop of 50% would get it to a bit below 800k

 

13 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Weather is amazing here, which is bad ofc. I could see it seriously impacting Sat and Sun holds.

 

Also, dont hope foolishly for something like 9M for Avatar 2 please. This is not 2002. This 2022, where everything sucks.

Really great in Schleswig-Holstein too.

 

What do we have left without hope?
But no, honestly I think this might turn out to be 2016 / 2018 2.0: meaning biggest movie (Avatar 2) gets around 4m (as much as Rouge One or Bohemian Rhapsody), with the difference that 2018 had FB2 and Der Junge muss an die frische Luft with 3.90m and 3.88m and two more above 3m, while 2016 had Finding Dory (3.92m), Pets (3.85m), Zootopia (3.85m), Willkommen bei den Hartmanns (3.84m) and FB1 (3.54m) - damn that was a close place 2-4.

And JW and Minions might end up at barely 3m - I don't think Thor will get to 3m - I am thinking barely above DS2 if weather plays along.

 

Still hoping it will turn out to be an amazing movie.

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I hope Avatar is around 7M so that gives India good chance to beat Germany, though likely will be around 8M I guess.

8m would be a great performance. I am not certain those numbers are still possible.

In admissions India will beat Germany easily.

 

[Taruseth]

Sunday trend:

DSMOM: 800k (New; so 640k 4-day Wend)

FB3: 115k (-39% for roughly 2480k)

Lost City: 70k (-32 % for 400k total)

Biene Maja 3: 50k (New)

Downton Abbey II: 45k (-25% / -35% if including Previews)

Sonic 2: 35k (-36 % for roughly 870k total - way nicer drop)

Northman: 27.5k (-42% for 170k total)

Bad Guys 25k (-29% for total of around 680k total) 

 

I am think FB3 might get to 2800k (still 200k short of the target)-

Edited May 8, 2022 by Taruseth

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

or maybe a bit lower and a bit better Friday

yep. 180 230.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

8m would be a great performance. I am not certain those numbers are still possible.

In admissions India will beat Germany easily.

Yeah admissions is easy but need to beat in $ to make it worthwhile.

Germany at 7M will be around $95M mostly, that will need India likely 23-24M admits. 

 

You seem to be going very low on Avatar. I think worst case should do TLK 2019 numbers.

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah admissions is easy but need to beat in $ to make it worthwhile.

Germany at 7M will be around $95M mostly, that will need India likely 23-24M admits. 

 

You seem to be going very low on Avatar. I think worst case should do TLK 2019 numbers.

 

Following the german box office just makes you a pessimist, thats all

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Following the german box office just makes you a pessimist, thats all

Yes. BO is in really bad shape. For a Western rich economy having around 5k screens, 83M population and a big film opening just 1-1.5M weekend admits isn't good at all. 

 

UK in comparison has 3.5M+ 4-days weekend (4500 screens, 64M population).

Edited May 8, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Taruseth]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah admissions is easy but need to beat in $ to make it worthwhile.

Germany at 7M will be around $95M mostly, that will need India likely 23-24M admits. 

 

You seem to be going very low on Avatar. I think worst case should do TLK 2019 numbers.

With current ER 7m will probably be more like €80-81M so $85M.

 

I am just not certain, on the one hand we have NTTD which did 6m (down from 7m for Spectre) so actually not down by much, on the other hand are people really wanting an A2? And Germany isn't exactly the most cinema friendly market. And it has gotten worse in the last 15 years (even before COVID-19 a trend towards less than 100m admissions was obvious) - will 3D etc. really be a selling point this time around? That's why I am thinking something between 4 and 6m - no real idea right now.
I am more optimistic about it in other markets, but: If the movie is actually really amazing visually and has a compelling story it might have great legs here.

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yes. BO is in really bad shape. For a Western rich economy having around 5k screens, 83M population and a big film opening just 1-1.5M weekend admits isn't good at all. 

 

A big reason for this i think are the kind of movies that are big blockbusters now worldwide (or for the last 10 years that is). Germans love fantasy adventure movies like LOTR, Harry Potter, POTC and Star Wars, but Superhero movies (apart from some outliers) didnt really catch on here like in most of the other western mature markets. The MCU has ofc built a big fanbase here, but ordinary german cinemagoers (a dying race) dont really care for them.

 

The other big reason i think is that german movies themselves are embarrassingly, hilariously awful and BAD. German cinema is a joke. We only make BAD comedys and BAD dramas and most people realized that years ago and dont care for the cinema anymore. Yes, sometimes we do make a good movie, but thats always some little niche release that gets like 80k admissions. Look at France, they make a huge domestic blockbuster every 3 to 4 years. What do we make? BAD movies.

[Brainbug]

On the other hand, thinking about it, Avatar 2 probably has a better chance at breaking out in a really big way than im giving it credit for here. It can be very much seen as a Sci-Fi-Fantasy adventure movie.

[Taruseth]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yes. BO is in really bad shape. For a Western rich economy having around 5k screens, 83M population and a big film opening just 1-1.5M weekend admits isn't good at all. 

 

UK in comparison has 3.5M+ 4-days weekend (4500 screens, 64M population).

Germany only ever had one opening Weekend above 2.5m and that was the first Harry Potter movie with 2.59m, HP missed it by around 10k.

And only 10 opening above 2m (with them being HP1 (2.59m), HP2 (2.49m), HP4 (2.4m), Ice Age 2 (2.40m), (T)raumschiff Surprise (2.16m), SW:TFA (2.14m), Fack Ju Göthe 2 (2.12m), LoTR 3 (2.05m), Finding Nemo (2.03m), LoTR 2 (2.02m).

8 of them from 2001-2006 and the two others from within a couple month in 2015.

[Taruseth]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

A big reason for this i think are the kind of movies that are big blockbusters now worldwide (or for the last 10 years that is). Germans love fantasy adventure movies like LOTR, Harry Potter, POTC and Star Wars, but Superhero movies (apart from some outliers) didnt really catch on here like in most of the other western mature markets. The MCU has ofc built a big fanbase here, but ordinary german cinemagoers (a dying race) dont really care for them.

 

The other big reason i think is that german movies themselves are embarrassingly, hilariously awful and BAD. German cinema is a joke. We only make BAD comedys and BAD dramas and most people realized that years ago and dont care for the cinema anymore. Yes, sometimes we do make a good movie, but thats always some little niche release that gets like 80k admissions. Look at France, they make a huge domestic blockbuster every 3 to 4 years. What do we make? BAD movies.

And those French blockbusters tend to do as good or better than their German counter part:

Most successful movie of the last decade was intouchables (9.17m admissions around 100k more than TFA) was a French movie.

 

Honestly, I don't care about superheroes that much either.

 

4 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

On the other hand, thinking about it, Avatar 2 probably has a better chance at breaking out in a really big way than im giving it credit for here. It can be very much seen as a Sci-Fi-Fantasy adventure movie.

Yeah, if one breaks out it can be Avatar 2. If it hits the Zeitgeist in December.

But even then I'd expect a leggy movie rather than a big Opening Weekend.

Deep down I want it to completely blow everything away and maybe make a LoTR run or something like this.

 

But right now I have to assume that it won't do it. A trailer might make the picture a bit clearer and I will definitely try to get a look at resales for it in December.

[charlie Jatinder]

28 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

The other big reason i think is that german movies themselves are embarrassingly, hilariously awful and BAD. German cinema is a joke. We only make BAD comedys and BAD dramas and most people realized that years ago and dont care for the cinema anymore. Yes, sometimes we do make a good movie, but thats always some little niche release that gets like 80k admissions. Look at France, they make a huge domestic blockbuster every 3 to 4 years. What do we make? BAD movies.

Yeah local films should be leading the markets. Local comedies seems to do well in other markets, simply HUGE in Italy and I don't think they are great going by online ratings. 

[Taruseth]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah local films should be leading the markets. Local comedies seems to do well in other markets, simply HUGE in Italy and I don't think they are great going by online ratings. 

German movies haven't lead the market since 1970 (before 1970 they had a share of 40 % quite often more than 50 %.

 

And hilariously the last decade was way better than the 90s, which had around a 9% share. 00s and 10s decade were both around 20 % at least.

 

Still not good and the movies responsible for that Fack Ju Göthe 1-3 weren't exactly great...

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Still not good and the movies responsible for that Fack Ju Göthe 1-3 weren't exactly great...

 

Thanks a lot (not) for writing this, i had actually succeded in forgetting these movies existed