BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[altglascontainer]

12 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Lightyear presales haven't started yet - wanted to set up everything, so I only have to count, but nothing.

 

Also weather was good today and is predicted to be great tomorrow and on Sunday. I am not even completely sure anymore they can reach the trend.

And Saturday being 175k is pretty much impossible (kinda though the weather would only be good today and tomorrow).

 

Don't know if I will count Elvis, next after that will probably be Thor and after that no idea - will definitely, if possible try to count Avatar 2.

 

 

Yeah lightyear is really weird. This movie is coming Out next week, but Most chains Like Cineplex, Cinestar or Traumpalast dont have the movie scheduled with even one showing next Week. Cinemaxx is the only Chain with showings. 

 

Im doing massive Talent, black Phone, Elvis and lightyear, Just to have some comps for smaller movies or in case of black Phone a Horror Flick.

Edited June 11, 2022 by altglascontainer
Spelling

[altglascontainer]

2nd Trend:

JWD (525 T)

TGM (225 T)

DS2 (45 T)

Mia and Me (25 T)

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by altglascontainer

[Taruseth]

20 minutes ago, altglascontainer said:

2nd Trend:

JWD (525 T)

TGM (225 T)

DS2 (45 T)

Mia and Me (25 T)

 

feared the trend would go down.

Not looking good overall.

 

the cinemas really need some strong movies and a gigantic Avatar.

[Brainbug]

Weather is just too good. This is probably one of the best weekends of the year weather-wise so far.

[IndustriousAngel]

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Weather is just too good. This is probably one of the best weekends of the year weather-wise so far.

not only that - we've had about two weeks of absolutlely shitty weather, so now that the sun's coming out again, everybody is spending their time outdoors if possible!

[altglascontainer]

3rd Trend:

JWD (560 T)

TGM (225 T)

DS2 (45 T)

[Taruseth]

21 minutes ago, altglascontainer said:

3rd Trend:

JWD (560 T)

TGM (225 T)

DS2 (45 T)

Just 3 Movies above 25k - and if the current forecast for next weekend turns out true - I think JWD will drop more than 50 % and Lightyear might open to like 100k.

35 °C among parts of western and southern Germany; way too hot - not that weather forecast are reliable more than 3 days out - but it gives a general direction (that I don't like...).

 

If FB3 gets a lot of open air showings 3m might still be possible, if not, I think we have to bury the 3m - this and next weekend kill any chance outside of those.

 

[Taruseth]

It's raining... What?

Only in Schleswig-Holstein though (and probably parts of Northern Lower Saxony and Hamburg) - won't help the trends.

 

I still have some hope, that Sunday won't be as bad as predicted, so it gets to 475k+100k.

 

And it really doesn't look all that bad, so I could definitely see a slight increase with tomorrows numbers.

 

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Taruseth

[Taruseth]

Presales for Lightyear haven't started yet at the Cinestar cinemas.

 

They started a couple days ago at the cinemaxx cinemas:

 

CX Bremen: 4 tickets sold for the complete OWend (12 showings)

 

That is absolutely awful - even for a TS movie.

 

Will do a count once CS has posted their showtimes - but I wouldn't put much into it.

 

Elvis opening a week later, at sold 4 tickets for the preview showing (only show that is already up).

 

It doesn't look that awful in Hamburg, but as I have zero comps for Hamburg that means nothing.

 

None the less, I think that spells trouble for Lightyear (together with the weather, I am a bit more confident in it opening to just 100k) - Toy Story 4 did 238k (if I remember correctly). This will surely come in way below that. Total probably being below 500k.

 

So in Germany the next weekends look pretty weak - TG2 is preforming weaker here than in the US, UK etc, JW is performing weaker, Lightyear will most likely be smaller, don't know about Elvis, Minions might be the next big movie (still hoping that at least will be big).

 

At the UCI cinemas there are four hours left until you can buy tickets to Thor, but nothing about when you can do it for Lightyear.

 

 

But we shouldn't worry "Die Geschichte der Menschheit - leicht gekürzt" doesn't have presales yet either and that is also starting on Thursday.

Edited June 12, 2022 by Taruseth

[titanic2187]

6 hours ago, Taruseth said:

It's raining... What?

Only in Schleswig-Holstein though (and probably parts of Northern Lower Saxony and Hamburg) - won't help the trends.

 

I still have some hope, that Sunday won't be as bad as predicted, so it gets to 475k+100k.

 

And it really doesn't look all that bad, so I could definitely see a slight increase with tomorrows numbers.

 

 

At least 225k 3rd weekend for TGM was in line with your earlier projection which means 2.5m finish total still on track.

[Taruseth]

Monday trend by insidekino:

 

JWD: 492.5k+100k

TGM: 240k (total 1620k

DSMOM 47.5k (Total 2097.5k)

Belle 30k

 

[IndustriousAngel]

3 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Monday trend by insidekino:

 

JWD: 492.5k+100k

TGM: 240k (total 1620k

DSMOM 47.5k (Total 2097.5k)

Belle 30k

 

that's much better than early estimates, nice to see!

[Taruseth]

On 6/9/2022 at 12:47 AM, Taruseth said:

T-0 for the weekend - Counted Wednesday 8th June 2022 23:59

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		135	1461	47343	3,09

 

Increased by 41,3 % today (TG:M was around 36 %).

 

John Wick 3 => 431k

Godzilla => 624k

Dark Phoenix => 544k

Spider-Man FFH => 308k

TLK => 489k

TG:M => 582k

 

On the one hand I'd got with TG:M as the others are pre pandemic, but I feel like Sunday won't be pretty (weather is predicted to be really good), so I am going with 545k for the true weekend (full well knowing that its optimistic and TLk inching down suggest an opening around 475k is more likely). (JWFK opened with 574.7k).

 

 

 

The realistic one was quite close  and I should definitely reign in my optimism 

[Brainbug]

Nearly 600k 5-Day opening is solid. I hoped for more, but its not that bad.

[Brainbug]

But next weekend will probably a total massacre for all movies. Weather forecast has 36 - 38 degress Celsius over 3 days.

[Aristis]

 

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

But next weekend will probably a total massacre for all movies. Weather forecast has 36 - 38 degress Celsius over 3 days.

I really don't understand why weather like that wouldn't let people flock to the cinemas. What else could you do if it's that hot? 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Aristis said:

 

I really don't understand why weather like that wouldn't let people flock to the cinemas. What else could you do if it's that hot? 

 

I would think so as well, but maybe when its so hot people just like to stay at home and not do anything?

[Taruseth]

T-2  - Counted Monday 13th June 2022 22:58

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		70	20	27695	0,07

 

 

No comps - as most of them are utterly useless - only will post comps Wednesday evening.

 

Won't do the German movie this evening, might try to get a final count of it on Wednesday.

[altglascontainer]

Massive Talent (June 15th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-1

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	29	149	4884	3,05%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 23

 

No Comp

 

Lightyear (June 16th) Ba-Wü OD Seat Report T-2

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	122	186	23672	0,79%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 146

 

No Comp

 

Black Phone (June 22nd) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-8

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	11	13	2398	0,54%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: -4

 

No Comp

 

Elvis (June 22nd) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-8

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	34	85	7628	1,11%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 25

 

No Comp

 

Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-22

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	37	293	9327	3,14%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 244

 

Comp

0.094x of DS2 T-22 (0.16M€/15.000 Adm. OD)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top14 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Jurassic World 3	492.536	641	768	593.171	6.950.152	-	1
2	Top Gun 2	240.037	722	332	1.620.506	16.833.949	-41	3
3	Doctor Strange 2	47.240	424	111	2.097.815	22.318.583	-59	6
4	Ryu to Sobakasu no Hime	28.417	319	89	28.534	354.122	-	1
5	Mia and Me	22.189	574	39	198.454	1.450.405	-46	3
6	Fantastic Beasts 3	21.299	405	53	2.881.334	29.057.526	-54	10
7	Paw Patrol: Jet to the Rescue	19.887	528	38	95.640	508.924	-56	2
8	Immenhof	19.051	608	31	177.951	1.326.906	-47	3
9	Dog	17.403	420	41	230.923	2.010.336	-57	4
10	The Lost City	12.486	293	43	611.874	5.514.175	-60	8
11	The Bad Boys	12.362	325	38	820.983	6.052.717	-37	13
12	Sonic the Hedgehog 2	8.021	295	27	1.000.180	8.070.756	-50	11
13	Everything Everywhere All at Once	6.493	146	44	120.960	1.092.397	-32	7
14	Verdens verste menneske	6.457	94	69	28.282	238.735	-35	2

Steep drops, but with the ok opening of Jurrasic World 3 there was even a slight uptick in overall admissions. Also good: Anime event Ryu to Sobakasu no Hime (Belle); the PTA is misleading here because there were only very few slots; I suspect that in per-show-average, it would top the chart! And looking a bit farther down, The Bad Boys is showing excellent staying power, it was never a big hit but very stable numbers week after week.

Next weekend: The biggest opener should be Lightyear; however, the franchise is not as popular as in the US - only Toy Story 2 came near to 3mil total, TS3 dropped to 1,6mil - and beautiful weather will drive families outdoors (plus, many are still travelling); I'd be surprised if it can reach a 300k OW under these conditions. Also opening: The Unbearable Weight Of Massive Talent (poor presales) - expect a horrible weekend.