IndustriousAngel Posted January 26, 2018 Author Share Posted January 26, 2018 First weekend estimates from insidekino.de - as expected: #1: Wonder - 150k admissions (actual weekend probably closer to 135) #2: HihmEg - 125k (-15%, great hold, might again reach 1mil total) #3/4: HotDog / DbH - 105k each (-30% / -20%) #5: Billboards - 100k (actual weekend about 80k) - nice! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 (edited) And the Friday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film): The new releases (obviously all had a lot of walk ups which is not too surprising with these target groups): Wonder: 15k/155k US$ Nur Gott kann mich richten: 9.1k/100k US$ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 10.5k/106k US$ – even better! Padamavati: 5k/83k US$ - playing in only 27 theaters! The holdovers (not much is reported this week, but both did well): Hot Dog: 9.3k (actuals last Thursday 12k)SW 8: 6.6k (actuals last Thursday 9.750) Darkest Hour: Thursday number not reported but will also have a very nice hold, better said increase, with 70k admissions this weekend according to the first trend (had 59k admissions last weekend/its release weekend). Edited January 26, 2018 by el sid 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 27, 2018 Author Share Posted January 27, 2018 Estimates are going up (in Wonder's case, by 30k ... that's a big difference, let's see but usually such a rise from Fri to Sat is also an indicator for a leggy run) - most other releases a bit up, too. Even StarWars is dropping less than 40%! The only thing missing is a really strong release ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 (edited) 3rd trend is up: #1 Wonder 185k #2 HihmEg 120k #3 Hot Dog 115k #4 Three Billboards 105k #5 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 95k #6 The Commuter 85k #7 Jumanji 85k #8 TLJ 67.5k #9 Nur Gott kann mich richten 70k #10 Darkest Hour 55k Wonder up slightly, most of the rest is down, with only #6 and #7 staying flat. Edited January 28, 2018 by George Parr 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 Monday numbers - Wonder at 200k (incl. previews) - that's up a lot from first estimates, a very good sign, saves the weekend a bit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Wonder 177.607 464 383 207.095 1.737.916 - 1 2 Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft 119.105 610 195 312.229 2.063.847 -19 2 3 Hot Dog 109.897 664 166 304.515 2.591.776 -27 2 4 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 97.480 686 142 1.780.197 14.747.571 -26 6 5 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 91.761 128 717 124.366 912.284 - 1 6 Jumanji 87.951 562 156 1.728.836 16.668.658 -22 6 7 The Commuter 86.147 497 173 487.625 4.243.270 -25 3 8 Star Wars 8 70.325 454 155 5.760.972 67.919.598 -36 7 9 The Darkest Hour 56.015 156 359 144.250 1.276.557 -5 2 10 The Greatest Showman 55.226 472 117 555.426 4.771.342 -28 4 11 Downsizing 50.044 296 169 163.059 1.425.129 -37 2 12 Nur Gott kann mich richten 47.451 158 300 66.207 539.076 - 1 13 Ferdinand 45.833 646 71 895.251 6.326.043 -15 7 14 Coco 32.351 528 61 1.226.895 9.377.940 -23 9 15 Insidious 4 30.328 399 76 411.292 3.652.056 -42 4 16 Aus dem Nichts 28.710 400 72 513.779 4.196.939 -30 10 17 Loving Vincent 19.922 201 99 223.546 1.746.912 -13 5 18 Deliha 2 18.854 67 281 49.167 438.199 -22 2 19 Pitch Perfect 3 16.960 309 55 980.411 8.049.252 -47 6 20 The Leisure Seeker 14.935 183 82 142.838 -16 4 Solid numbers - the openers were pretty good, and drops not too steep - the only thing missing (once more) are one or two hit releases (to say nothing of blockbusters). Which means that overall business is down >20% compared to last year … The way Wonder developed over the weekend, it should at least reach 1mil total. Three Billboards had an excellent PTA and with the Oscars drawing near should see excellent holds or even increases - 1mil total seems too optimistic but maybe 750k are possible. Next weekend: No blockbusters in sight, but some interesting releases: Maze Runner 3 (might win the weekend), french comedy wildcard Le Sens de la fête (probably not a big start but with those releases it's about the legs) and of course beloved children's book adaption Die kleine Hexe which should easily collect >1mil admissions total. Other interesting releases: Franco's The Disaster Artist and P.T.Anderson's Phantom Thread with Vicky Krieps as the female lead (best german actress of the last years imho, even if she's not german …). 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum: New Releases: Die kleine Hexe / The Little Witch: ?k (released in 636 theaters) Maze Runner 3: 16.5k (527) – not too good and the reservations also looked a bit muted today Den of Thieves / Criminal Squad: 8k (333) - the prediction for the weekend from insidekino.de is only 50-55k but if this Thursday estimate holds that's too low; reservations for tomorrow look good too Das Leben ist ein Fest / Le Sens de la fête: 3.5k (181) Phantom Thread: 2.5k (95) The Disaster Artist: ?k (ca. 50 theaters only today despite the buzz) Holdovers (please remember that most titles were very underestimated last Thursday): Wonder: 9.5k (actuals last Thursday 15k) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 9.5k (expands from 128 to nearly 200 theaters this weekend, 10.5k last Thursday) – even if underestimated that's already a nice number The Commuter: 4.5k Hot Dog: 4.5k (9.3k) Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 4.5k Darkest Hour: 3k Jumanji: 3k Nur Gott kann mich richten: 2k (9.1k) – looks low but this film also had a lot of walk ups last week 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 First weekend estimates from insidekino.de: #1: Die kleine Hexe - 325k admissions (contains about 60k previews I think) #2: Wonder - 175k (flat from last week!) #3: MazeRunner3 - 175k (good, no drop from 1and 2) #4: Hilfe, ich habe ... - 126k (+5%) #5: Three billboards - 90k (flat despite expansion - I expected better) Well, that's much better for "Die kleine Hexe" than I expected; I thought this was good for 1mil total but with this opening, 2mil seem easily possible! Finally a really good number, and one more weekend win for a domestic production. Maybe, if overall business goes down from 2017, we can at least see 2018 as the year of the German film! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 The Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt: Film): New Releases (all new releases start above the expectations ): Maze Runner 3: 25k Die kleine Hexe / The Little Witch: 20k – a really good number on a Thursday Den of Thieves / Criminal Squad: 11k → 85k OW predicted in the first trend Das Leben ist ein Fest / Le Sens de la fête: 6k → 75k OW Phantom Thread: 3.6k → 32.5k OW Holdovers (both increased from last week): Wonder: 20k (actuals last Thursday 15k) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 11.5k (10.5k) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2nd trend is up: #1: Die kleine Hexe - 325k #2: MazeRunner3 - 180k #3: Wonder - 175k #4: HihdEg - 125k #5: Three Billboards - 85k #6 Criminal Squad 85k #7 Das Leben ist ein Fest 75k #8 Hot Dog 70k #9 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 60k #10 Jumanji 50k 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 (edited) Family releases go down with final estimates but overall still an ok weekend! Edited February 4, 2018 by IndustriousAngel 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The Monday update from insidekino.de: #1 Die kleine Hexe 262.5k/310k #2 The Maze Runner 3 185k/190k #3 Wonder 167.5k/430k #4 Hilfe 102.5k/435k #5 Billboards 85k/235k #6 Den of Thieves 75k/85k #7 Hot Dog 70k/400k #8 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 65k/1.875M #9 Jumanji 62.5k/1.81M #10 Das Leben ist ein Fest 55k/82.5k #11 The Commuter 45k/535k #12 Darkest Hour 45k/210k #13 Star Wars 8 40k/5.818M #14 The Greatest Showman 37.5k/610k #15 Ferdinand 35k/935k #16 Phantom Thread 32.5k/35k #17 Coco 25k/1.255M #18 Nur Gott kann mich richten 25k/105k #19 Downsizing 25k/200k 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Die kleine Hexe 265.117 642 413 313.816 2.128.856 - 1 2 Maze Runner 3 185.496 527 352 190.578 2.098.358 - 1 3 Wonder 169.749 487 349 436.488 3.590.262 -4 2 4 Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft 103.188 640 161 434.309 2.860.766 -13 3 5 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 85.888 196 438 248.923 1.949.308 -6 2 6 Den of Thieves 76.076 333 228 84.614 786.643 - 1 7 Hot Dog 71.656 671 107 400.383 3.386.248 -35 3 8 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 65.071 662 98 1.874.274 15.517.993 -33 7 9 Jumanji 63.240 488 130 1.808.942 17.407.922 -28 7 10 Le Sens de la Fête 54.848 180 305 81.955 639.270 - 1 11 The Commuter 45.939 441 104 555.204 4.829.662 -47 4 12 The Darkest Hour 45.917 185 248 213.412 1.880.011 -18 3 13 Star Wars Ep.8 41.618 327 127 5.821.780 68.630.342 -41 8 14 The Greatest Showmman 38.536 356 108 613.316 5.260.748 -30 5 15 Ferdinand 35.905 568 63 936.568 6.604.014 -22 8 16 Phantom Thread 34.222 94 364 37.482 327.881 - 1 17 Coco 25.640 431 59 1.256.425 9.585.813 -21 10 18 Nur Gott kann mich richten 25.493 161 158 104.894 879.977 -46 2 19 Downsizing 25.398 295 86 201.135 1.761.600 -49 3 20 Insidious 4 17.446 351 50 434.110 3.855.642 -42 5 Finally a good weekend (okay, at least decent, still a bit below the corresponding one last year) - all openers did at least what was expected from them; Die kleine Hexe even more. With an opening that big, the book adaption should easily reach 1,5mil total; depending on WOM 2mil might be possible. Holdovers were mostly good, too - but Star Wars 8 still dropped >40%, 6mil total are impossible by now (upon initial release - might well crawl over that bar with Ep.9 triple features). Anyway, a great year for the German movie so far, four releases in the Top8! Next weekend: Fifty Shades Of Grey 3 is the big opener; and since it's taking all the big screens, distributors kept everything else away from that weekend. But will the softporn flick really go that high? The franchise showed signs of fatigue, and it's questionable if nr.3 can repeat the >1mil opening weekends of ist predecessors. Family and arthouse stuff should see good holds thanks to little to no new competition. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 Austria's January numbers are online and it's as feared - the worst Jan ever, more than 10% down from 2017 (which was already the worst one until now ...) - Austria is far worse off than Germany which, while weak, still profits from strong domestic releases - but in Austria, those German movies don't do nearly as well (Die kleine Hexe was only #3 on OW; The run of "Dieses bescheuerte Herz" is already over). With the Winter Olympics now and the 2018 FIFA WorldCup as competition, and no real blockbusters on the horizon, I'ts pretty guaranteed 2018 will become the worst year ever for Austrian theaters :((( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 First weekend estimates from insidekino.de : #1: 50SoG 3 - 975k admissions (contains the strong Wednesday, WE actual probably around 830k) #2; Die kleine Hexe - 250k (-6%) #3: Wonder - 140k (-18%) #4: Maze3 - 110k (-41%) #5: Hilfe, ich ... - 100k (-3%) Rather good opening for 50Sog 3 (better than many estimates) and spectacular holds for family releases - yay! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Cant say im happy for Fifty Shades (i hate that garbage), but for the cinemas this is really good news 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 (edited) The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film: New releases: Fifty Shades Freed: 135k and nearly 1.6M US$ (released in 725 theaters which is on par with part 1 and 2, some bad and some mediocre reviews; Fifty Shades of Grey saw 1.353.030 admissions OW (4.41M total), Fifty Shades Darker 847.356 admissions OW (3.45M total) – 135k OD is on par with part 2 Wind River: 2.7k (86, good and very good reviews) The (pretty nice) holdovers: Die kleine Hexe: 27.1k (actuals last Thursday 20k) – more states with school holidays, still great Wonder: 17k (20k) Maze Runner 3: 14k (25k) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 9k (11.5k) Edited February 9, 2018 by el sid 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 (edited) Because the Friday estimates look nice and the Thursday estimates were pretty reliable for 50 Shades Freed I'll post them: 50 Shades Freed: 265k Wonder: 30k Maze Runner 3: 26.5k Three Billboards: 18k Den of Thieves: 16k – seems to have a good hold too Das Leben ist ein Fest: 12.5k Hot Dog: 10.5k Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 9.5k Phantom Thread: 7.5k – also not bad at all Edited February 9, 2018 by el sid 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 2nd trend is up, 50SoG, Wonder and HihmEg are down a bit, Maze Runner is up: #1: 50SoG 3 - 950k #2; Die kleine Hexe - 250k #3: Wonder - 130k #4: Maze Runner- 120k #5: HihmEg - 85k #6 Three Billboards 72.5k #7 Jumanji 52.5k #8 Criminal Squad 52.5k #9 Das Leben ist ein Fest 45k #10 Wind River 42.5k 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 3rd trend is up at insidekino, drops all around, only Maze Runner stayed flat. Die kleine Hexe down by 40k from the last trend! #1: 50SoG 3 - 925k #2; Die kleine Hexe - 210k #3: Wonder - 125k #4: Maze Runner- 120k #5: HihmEg - 75k #6 Three Billboards 70k #7 Criminal Squad 50k #8 Jumanji 45k #9 Das Leben ist ein Fest 42.5k #10 Wind River 40k 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...