IndustriousAngel Posted May 21, 2019 Author Share Posted May 21, 2019 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Pokémon Detectice Pikachu 254.743 625 408 784.166 6.935.762 -37 2 2 Avengers - Endgame 213.638 678 315 4.601.188 52.043.590 -49 4 3 The Hustle 115.402 481 240 356.296 2.963.663 -27 2 4 Miraculous 98.436 289 341 98.436 501.648 - 1 5 Der Fall Collini 45.695 622 73 601.862 5.277.008 -39 5 6 Qu'est-ce qu'on a encore fait au Bon Dieu ? 33.620 555 61 1.153.114 9.447.974 -49 7 7 The Queen's Corgi 23.383 508 46 160.497 1.096.047 -45 3 8 The Silence 19.699 285 69 19.699 170.747 - 1 9 After 18.234 407 45 981.349 8.008.505 -45 6 10 Greta 16.153 175 92 33.152 231.436 - 1 11 Wonder Park 15.887 536 30 454.611 3.190.116 -48 6 12 At Eternity's Gate 13.659 261 52 185.334 1.505.229 -38 5 13 Dumbo 9.768 410 24 688.663 5.274.813 -50 8 14 Pet Sematary 8.746 269 33 510.902 4.422.421 -42 7 15 Stan & Ollie 8.519 141 60 37.677 4.422.421 -40 2 16 Photo de Famille 8.461 91 93 13.623 99.722 - 1 17 Nur eine Frau 8.373 92 91 27.970 231.988 -31 2 - Bolshoi: Carmen Suite/Petrushka 6.436 135 48 6.436 145.108 - 1 18 Sayonara no asa ni yakusoku no hana o kazarô 4.973 128 39 4.973 59.777 - 19 The Curso of La Llorona 4.146 180 23 117.787 1.026.164 -48 5 20 La Dernière Folie de Claire Darling 4.126 129 32 49.227 385.599 -62 3 Among hard drops for most releases, those for Der Fall Collini and especially The Hustle look pretty impressive (in Austria, Hustle even was in front of the Avengers this weekend). Among openers, Miraculous surprised me with a fine PTA, should expand somewhat next weekend. Next weekend: Expext a good start for the 3rd John Wick film - the first parts are well remembered, it should take the #1 with ease, something like 300k for the weekend. Also opening: Aladdin, probably another so-so Disney result like Dumbo (or even worse) but should top 100k for the weekend. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 (edited) On 5/20/2019 at 12:23 AM, Taruseth said: So tomorrow the shows for the first week for Aladdin and John Wick will be up, that means you get a preview update tonight, I am just posting the whole thing. Reveal hidden contents Aladdin Pretty bad everywhere CineStar Bremen Preview on Wednesday 22ndMay 19:45 5th May 23:59(T-17): 3 / 572 -> 0.5% 6th May 23:59(T-16): 9 / 572 -> 1.6% (all 6 added probably by a group) 7th May 23:59(T-15): 9 / 572 -> 1.6% (+0) 8th May 23:59(T-14): 16 / 572 -> 2.8% (+7) 9th May 23:59(T-13): 19 / 572 -> 3.3% (+3) 10th May 23:59(T-12): 19 / 572 -> 3.3% (+0) 11th May 23:59(T-11): 21 / 572 -> 3.7% (+2) 12th May 23:59(T-10): ??? No showing available, changed the time from 19:40 to 19:45 13th May 23:59(T-9): 27 / 572 -> 4.7% (+6) 14th May 23:59(T-8): 33 / 572 -> 5.8% (+6) 15th May 23:59(T-7): 37 / 572 -> 6.4% (+4) 16th May 23:59(T-6): 46 / 572 -> 8% (+9) 17th May 23:59(T-5): 53 / 572 -> 9.3% (+7) 18th May 23:59(T-4): 53 / 572 -> 9.3% (+0) (alarm bells!) 19th May 23:59(T-3): 59 / 572 -> 10.3% (+6) (Just 40%! of Detective Pikachu!) CinemaxX Bremen Preview on Wednesday 22ndMay 20:20 14th May 23:59(T-8): 23 / 454 -> 5.1% 15th May 23:59(T-7): 25 / 454 -> 5.5% (+2) 16th May 23:59(T-6): 27 / 454 -> 5.9% (+2) 17th May 23:59(T-5): 27 / 454 -> 5.9% (+0) (WTF is wrong with this?) 18th May 23:59(T-4): 29 / 454 -> 6.4% (+2) 19th May 23:59(T-3): 38 / 454 -> 8-4% (+9) CineStar Metropolis Frankfurt Preview on Wednesday 22ndMay 19:45 11th May 23:59(T-11): 18 / 626 -> 2.9% 12th May 23:59(T-10): 20 / 626 -> 3.2% (+2) 13th May 23:59(T-9): 24 / 626 -> 3.8% (+4) 14th May 23:59(T-8): 39 / 626 -> 6.2% (+15) 15th May 23:59(T-7): 44 / 626 -> 7% (+5) 16th May 23:59(T-6): 54 / 626 -> 8.6% (+10) 17th May 23:59(T-5): 61 / 626 -> 9.7% (+7) 18th May 23:59(T-4): 66 / 626 -> 10.5% (+5) (this is dead) 18th May 23:59(T-4): 76 / 626 -> 10.5% (+10) John Wick 3 Looks good more towards the city centres CineStar Bremen Preview on Wednesday 22ndMay 20:15 5th May 23:59(T-17): 8 / 425 -> 1.9% 6th May 23:59(T-16): 8 / 425 -> 1.9% (+0) 7th May 23:59(T-15): 9 / 425 -> 1.9% (+1) 8th May 23:59(T-14): 9 / 425 -> 1.9% (+0) 9th May 23:59(T-13): 11 / 425 -> 2.6% (+2) 10th May 23:59(T-12): 15 / 425 -> 3.5% (+4) 11th May 23:59(T-11): 17 / 425 -> 4% (+2) 12th May 23:59(T-10): 19 / 425 -> 4.5% (+2) 13th May 23:59(T-9): 26 / 425 -> 6.1% (+7) 14th May 23:59(T-8): 29 / 425 -> 6.8% (+3) 15th May 23:59(T-7): 33 / 425 -> 7.8% (+4) 16th May 23:59(T-6): 39 / 425 -> 9.2% (+6) 17th May 23:59(T-5): 44 / 425 -> 10.4% (+5) 18th May 23:59(T-4): 62 / 425 -> 14.6% (+18) 19th May 23:59(T-3): 65 / 425 -> 15.3% (+3) (44.5% of Detective Pikachu) CinemaxX Bremen Preview on Wednesday 22ndMay 20:00 and 22:50 14th May 23:59(T-8): 20:00: 58 / 505 -> 11.5% 14th May 23:59(T-8): 22:50 3 / 505 -> 0.6% Total: 61 / 1010 -> 6% 15th May 23:59(T-7): 20:00: 75 / 505 -> 14.9% (+17) 15th May 23:59(T-7): 22:50 3 / 505 -> 0.6% Total: 78 / 1010 -> 7.7% (+17) 16th May 23:59(T-6): 20:00: 75 / 505 -> 14.9% (+0) 16th May 23:59(T-6): 22:50 3 / 505 -> 0.6% Total: 78 / 1010 -> 7.7% (+0) 17th May 23:59(T-5): 20:00: 88 / 505 -> 17.4% (+13) 17th May 23:59(T-5): 22:50 8 / 505 -> 1.6% (+5) Total: 96 / 1010 -> 9.5% (+18) 18th May 23:59(T-4): 20:00: 96 / 505 -> 17.4% (+8) 18th May 23:59(T-4): 22:50 9 / 505 -> 1.8% (+1) Total: 105 / 1010 -> 10.4% (+9) 19th May 23:59(T-3): 20:00: 105 / 505 -> 20.8% (+9) 19th May 23:59(T-3): 22:50 12 / 505 -> 2.4% (+3) Total: 117 / 1010 -> 11.6% (+12) CineStar Metropolis Frankfurt Preview on Wednesday 22ndMay 19:40 11th May 23:59(T-11): 66 / 642 -> 10.3% 12th May 23:59(T-10): 70 / 642 -> 10.9% (+4) 13th May 23:59(T-9): 72 / 642 -> 11.2% (+2) 14th May 23:59(T-8): 83 / 642 -> 12.9% (+11) 15th May 23:59(T-7): 93 / 642 -> 12.9% (+10) 16th May 23:59(T-6): 106 / 642 -> 16.5% (+13) 17th May 23:59(T-5): 121 / 642 -> 19% (+16) 18th May 23:59(T-4): 122 / 642 -> 19% (+1) (WTF) 19th May 23:59(T-3): 144 / 642 -> 22.4% (+22) (someone explain this) Godzilla CineStar Bremen Preview on Wednesday 29thMay 20:15 6th May 23:59 (T-23): 7 / 425 -> 1.6% 7th May 23:59 (T-22): 11 / 425 -> 2.6% (+4) 8th May 23:59 (T-21): 13 / 425 -> 3.1% (+2) 9th May 23:59 (T-20): 13 / 425 -> 3.1% (+0) 10th May 23:59 (T-19): 14 / 425 -> 3.3% (+1) 11th May 23:59 (T-18): 14 / 425 -> 3.3% (+0) 12th May 23:59 (T-17): 14 / 425 -> 3.3% (+0) 13th May 23:59 (T-16): 14 / 425 -> 3.3% (+0) 14th May 23:59 (T-15): 14 / 425 -> 3.3% (+0) 15th May 23:59 (T-14): 16 / 425 -> 3.8% (+2) 16th May 23:59 (T-13): 16 / 425 -> 3.8% (+0) 17th May 23:59 (T-12): 16 / 425 -> 3.8% (+0) 18th May 23:59 (T-11): 16 / 425 -> 3.8% (+0) 19th May 23:59 (T-10): 21 / 425 -> 4.9% (+5) (Slightly above John Wick)) CinemaxX Bremen Preview on Wednesday 29thMay 20:30 14th May 23:59(T-15): 8 / 348 -> 2.3% 15th May 23:59(T-14): 10 / 348 -> 2.9% (+2) 16th May 23:59(T-13): 10 / 348 -> 2.9% (+0) 17th May 23:59(T-12): 10 / 348 -> 2.9% (+0) 18th May 23:59(T-11): 11 / 348 -> 3.2% (+1) 18th May 23:59(T-10): 11 / 348 -> 3.2% (+1) (Probably around 2ß% of JW) CineStar Metropolis Frankfurt Preview on Wednesday 29thMay 20:15 11th May 23:59(T-18): 2 / 626 -> 0.3% 12th May 23:59(T-17): 2 / 626 -> 0.3% (+0) 13th May 23:59(T-16): 2 / 626 -> 0.3% (+0) 14th May 23:59(T-15): 4 / 626 -> 0.6% (+2) 15th May 23:59(T-14): 6 / 626 -> 1% (+2) 16th May 23:59(T-13): 8 / 626 -> 1.3% (+2) 17th May 23:59(T-12): 8 / 626 -> 1.3% (+0) 18th May 23:59(T-11): 8 / 626 -> 1.3% (+0) 19th May 23:59(T-10): 8 / 626 -> 1.3% (+0) (11.4% of John Wick) Rocketman CineStar Bremen Preview on Wednesday 29thMay 19:30 8th May 23:59(T-21): 3 / 322 -> 0.9% 9th May 23:59(T-20): 3 / 322 -> 0.9% (+0) 10th May 23:59(T-19): 5 / 322 -> 1.6% (+2) 11th May 23:59(T-18): 5 / 322 -> 1.6% (+0) 12th May 23:59(T-17): 5 / 322 -> 1.6% (+0) 13th May 23:59(T-16): 5 / 322 -> 1.6% (+0) 14th May 23:59(T-15): 5 / 322 -> 1.6% (+0) 15th May 23:59(T-14): 9 / 322 -> 1.6% (+4) The four seats are together, (2 love, 2 normal) 16th May 23:59(T-13): 11 / 322 -> 3.4% (+2) 17th May 23:59(T-12): 11 / 322 -> 3.4% (+0) 18th May 23:59(T-11): 13 / 322 -> 4% (+2) 19th May 23:59(T-10): 17 / 322 -> 4% (+4) (about 80% of Aladdin) CinemaxX Bremen Preview on Wednesday 29thMay 20:00 14th May 23:59(T-15): 10 / 454 -> 2.2% 15th May 23:59(T-14): 10 / 454 -> 2.2% (+0) 16th May 23:59(T-13): 12 / 454 -> 2.2% (+2) 17th May 23:59(T-12): 19 / 454 -> 4.2% (+7) 18th May 23:59(T-11): 21 / 454 -> 4.6% (+2) 19th May 23:59(T-10): 23 / 454 -> 5.1% (+2) (slightly above Aladdin) CineStar Metropolis Frankfurt Preview on Wednesday 29thMay 19:30 11th May 23:59(T-18): 0 / 642 -> 0% 12th May 23:59(T-17): 0 / 642 -> 0% (+0) 13th May 23:59(T-16): 0 / 642 -> 0% (+0) 14th May 23:59(T-15): 0 / 642 -> 0% (+0) 15th May 23:59(T-14): 0 / 642 -> 0% (+0) 16th May 23:59(T-13): 2 / 642 -> 0.3% (+2) 17th May 23:59(T-12): 5 / 642 -> 0.8% (+3) 18th May 23:59(T-11): 5 / 642 -> 0.8% (+0) 19th May 23:59(T-10): 5 / 642 -> 0.8% (+0) (a fourth of Alladin) Dark Phoenix CineStar Bremen Preview on Wednesday 5thJune 20:15 10th May 23:59(T-26): 0 / 425 -> 0.0% 11th May 23:59(T-25): 0 / 425 -> 0.0% (+0) 12th May 23:59(T-24): 0 / 425 -> 0.0% (+0) 13th May 23:59(T-23): 0 / 425 -> 0.0% (+0) 14th May 23:59(T-22): 0 / 425 -> 0.0% (+0) 15th May 23:59(T-21): 0 / 425 -> 0.0% (+0) 16th May 23:59(T-20): 0 / 425 -> 0.0% (+0) 17th May 23:59(T-19): 0 / 425 -> 0.0% (+0) 18th May 23:59(T-18): 0 / 425 -> 0.0% (+0) 19th May 23:59(T-17): 0 / 425 -> 0.0% (+0) (too early to tell) CinemaxX Bremen Preview on Wednesday 5thJune 20:00 14th May 23:59(T-22): 1 / 454 -> 0.0% 15th May 23:59(T-21): 1 / 454 -> 0.2% (+1) 16th May 23:59(T-20): 1 / 454 -> 0.2% (+0) 17th May 23:59(T-19): 1 / 454 -> 0.2% (+0) 18th May 23:59(T-18): 2 / 454 -> 0.4% (+1) 19th May 23:59(T-17): 2 / 454 -> 0.4% (+0) CineStar Metropolis Frankfurt Preview on Wednesday 5thJune 20:15 11th May 23:59(T-25): 4 / 642 -> 0.6% 12th May 23:59(T-24): 6 / 642 -> 0.9% (+2) 13th May 23:59(T-23): 6 / 642 -> 0.9% (+0) 14th May 23:59(T-22): 6 / 642 -> 0.9% (+0) 15th May 23:59(T-21): 6 / 642 -> 0.9% (+0) 16th May 23:59(T-20): 6 / 642 -> 0.9% (+0) 17th May 23:59(T-19): 6 / 642 -> 0.9% (+0) 18th May 23:59(T-18): 6 / 642 -> 0.9% (+0) 19th May 23:59(T-17): 6 / 642 -> 0.9% (+0) Drei Schritte zu dir CineStar Bremen Preview on Wednesday 19thJune 19:45 14th May 23:59(T-36): 4 / 572 -> 0.7% (WTF, this is early) 15th May 23:59(T-35): 4 / 572 -> 0.7% (+0) 16th May 23:59(T-34): 4 / 572 -> 0.7% (+0) 17th May 23:59(T-33): 4 / 572 -> 0.7% (+0) 18th May 23:59(T-32): 6 / 572 -> 1% (+2) 19th May 23:59(T-31): 6 / 572 -> 1% (+2) CinemaxX Bremen Preview on Wednesday 19thJune 17:00 16th May 23:59(T-34): 0 / 348 -> 0.0% 17th May 23:59(T-33): 1 / 348 -> 0.3% (+1) 18th May 23:59(T-32): 1 / 348 -> 0.3% (+0) 19th May 23:59(T-31): 1 / 348 -> 0.3% (+0) CineStar Metropolis Frankfurt Preview on Wednesday 19thJune 19:45 14th May 23:59(T-36): 1 / 273 -> 0.7% (WTF, this is early) 15th May 23:59(T-35): 4 / 273 -> 1.5% (+3) 16th May 23:59(T-34): 4 / 273 -> 1.5% (+0) 17th May 23:59(T-33): 4 / 273 -> 1.5% (+0) 18th May 23:59(T-32): 4 / 273 -> 1.5% (+0) 19th May 23:59(T-31): 4 / 273 -> 1.5% (+0) Pets 2 CinemaxX Bremen Preview on Sunday 23thJune 15:00 19th May 23:59(T-35): 1 / 505 -> 0.2% What I am getting from this: Aladdin performs really bad, John Wick does good. Godzilla does weirdly got at my local cinema. Rocketman most likely won't get close to BR. Dark Phoenix will crash epically. And they start presales 5 weeks ahead, that's so early. And selling for the shows of the first week starts the monday before, so basically three days before OD. Sorry for not posting yesterday evening but apparently Cinestar didn't put the shows on sale for this weekend - WTF, wasn't DP on sale on Monday before release. 3 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Among hard drops for most releases, those for Der Fall Collini and especially The Hustle look pretty impressive (in Austria, Hustle even was in front of the Avengers this weekend). Among openers, Miraculous surprised me with a fine PTA, should expand somewhat next weekend. Next weekend: Expext a good start for the 3rd John Wick film - the first parts are well remembered, it should take the #1 with ease, something like 300k for the weekend. Also opening: Aladdin, probably another so-so Disney result like Dumbo (or even worse) but should top 100k for the weekend. 1 I don't think Aladdin will perform below Dumbo and even that movie opened with 150k, so I expect Aladdin to probably open with a little more. But this worries me so much for TLK if all these fail so much, will TLK open to any significant number? I had hopes for this being the seonc movie to open to 1m adm this year and ROTS then being the third, but now... Looks like Endgame has a shot at 2nd place and if ROTS performs worse than TLJ, Frozen 2 doesn't increase it would be number 1. Edited May 21, 2019 by Taruseth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 12 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Among openers, Miraculous surprised me with a fine PTA, should expand somewhat next weekend. I think it was a Sunday event (which would make the PTA even crazier). I'm not totally sure though... 9 hours ago, Taruseth said: But this worries me so much for TLK if all these fail so much, will TLK open to any significant number? I had hopes for this being the seonc movie to open to 1m adm this year and ROTS then being the third, but now... Looks like Endgame has a shot at 2nd place and if ROTS performs worse than TLJ, Frozen 2 doesn't increase it would be number 1. I never really thought TLK would be huge here, though I'd love to be surprised like AEG did. But you really think AEG could be bigger than SW9? (I don't really like the acronym ROTS, to me that's SW3) AEG is on course for around 5M, SW8 had 5,9M so the 9th had to decrease another 15%! That seems highly unlikely to me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 37 minutes ago, Aristis said: I think it was a Sunday event (which would make the PTA even crazier). I'm not totally sure though... I never really thought TLK would be huge here, though I'd love to be surprised like AEG did. But you really think AEG could be bigger than SW9? (I don't really like the acronym ROTS, to me that's SW3) AEG is on course for around 5M, SW8 had 5,9M so the 9th had to decrease another 15%! That seems highly unlikely to me... 1 Yeah, it was a Sunday event. Sorry, the acronym is actually TROS for IX, cause the title is The Rise of Skywalker. I really hope TROS is able to get back over the 6m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 (edited) Cinestar chain finally started presales too: Aladdin: Spoiler Tuesday 21thMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-1) Cinestar Bremen 21thMay 23:59 MESZ (T-1) Previews: Wednesday 3D 20:00: 76 / 572 -> 13.7 % It started presales today and it’s getting six! Showings, damn… Thursday: 3D 14:30: 0 / 425 3D 17:30: 2 / 425 3D 19:15: 16 / 572 3D 22:10: 0 / 280 2D 14:00: 0 / 425 2D 16:50: 6 / 572 Total: 24 / 2699 -> 0.9% Friday: 3D 14:30: 2 / 425 3D 17:30: 0 / 425 3D 19:15: 17 / 572 3D 22:10: 2 / 280 2D 14:00: 0 / 425 2D 16:50: 14 / 572 Total: 35 / 2699 -> 1.3% Saturday: 3D 14:30: 4 / 425 3D 17:30: 3 / 425 3D 19:15: 5 / 572 3D 22:10: 2 / 280 2D 14:00: 0 / 425 2D 16:50: 0 / 572 Total: 14 / 2699 -> 0.5% (Ouch) Sunday: 3D 11:30: 0 / 425 3D 14:30: 11 / 425 3D 17:30: 0 / 425 3D 19:50: 0 / 572 2D 11:10: 4 / 322 2D 13:50: 0 / 425 2D 16:50: 0 / 572 Total: 15 / 3166 -> 0.5% (The capacity is just 18 seats less than for Endgame’s first Sunday!) Overall without previews: 88 / 11263 -> 0.8% Overall with Previews: 164 / 11835 -> 1.4% Detective Pika: 157 woP and 332 wP So it’s at 55.9% of Pika’s Weekend without Previews (Pika’s was on sale for two days, Aladdin only started today) and at 49.4% with Previews. Based on this Comp it would be: 225k (+17.5k Previews) for 242.5k – barely ahead of Alita and behind After Passion (by quite a bit) Endgame: Previews: 565 (Previews) and 1848 (4-day) So it’s at 4.8% of the Weekend and at 13.5% of the Previews. That would be a 80k OWend or a 225k if we use just the Previews an estimate the whole weekend by that percentage. This leads me to think that it might have a shot at 200k, so I wouldn’t bet on it. Tue to the late start it could go up tomorrow compared to the others and end higher but based on the lacklustre preview increases I wouldn’t bet on it. It also could go down. Tuesday 21thMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-1) CinemaxX Bremen Wednesday – Previews 2D 20:20: 70 / 454 -> 15.4% (+11) Thursday: OV 2D 19:00: 25 / 288 3D 14:40: 0 / 260 3D 16:30: 0 / 454 3D 19:40: 6 /454 3D 22:45: 0 /228 2D 14:10: 0 / 505 2D 16:45: 10 / 280 Total: 41 / 2469 -> 1.7% (+34) Friday: OV 2D 19:15: 2 / 280 3D 14:40: 0 / 260 3D 16:30: 2 / 454 3D 19:40: 6 /454 3D 22:45: 0 /228 2D 14:10: 0 / 505 2D 17:00: 0 / 228 Total: 10 / 2409 -> 0.4% (+10) Saturday: OV 2D 20:00: 2 / 280 3D 14:30: 0 / 260 3D 16:30: 0 / 454 3D 19:40: 4 /454 3D 22:20: 0 /228 2D 11:50: 0 / 288 2D 14:00: 0 / 505 2D 16:50: 0 / 228 Total: 6 / 2637 -> 0.2% (+6) Sunday: OV 2D 19:00: 2 / 288 3D 14:30: 0 / 260 3D 16:10: 0 / 454 3D 19:30: 0 /454 3D 22:20: 0 /228 2D 11:50: 0 / 288 2D 14:00: 3 / 505 2D 17:20: 0 / 228 Total: 5 / 2637 -> 0.2% (+5) Total without Previews: 62 / 10152 -> 0.6%(+55) Total with Previews: 132 / 10606 -> 1.2% (+66) Tuesday 21thMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-1) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt 21thMay 23:59 MESZ (T-1) Previews: Wednesday 3D 19:45: 130 / 624 -> 20.8 % It started presales today and it’s getting NINE! Showings, damn… three times the number compared to John Wick Thursday: OV 3D 17:20: 4 / 344 OV 3D 20:25: 9 / 344 3D 14:30: 0 / 351 3D 17:35: 0 / 351 3D 20:10: 6 / 642 3D 23:15: 0 / 642 2D 14:00: 2 / 642 2D 17:05: 3 / 642 OV 2D 14:15: 0 / 344 Total: 24 / 4302 -> 0.56% Friday: OV 3D 17:20: 0 / 344 OV 3D 20:25: 7 / 344 3D 14:30: 0 / 351 3D 17:35: 0 / 351 3D 20:10: 24 / 642 3D 23:15: 0 / 642 2D 14:00: 0 / 642 2D 17:05: 0 / 642 OV 2D 14:15: 0 / 344 Total: 31 / 4302 -> 0.72% Saturday: OV 3D 17:20: 0 / 344 OV 3D 20:25: 2 / 344 3D 14:30: 0 / 351 3D 17:35: 0 / 351 3D 20:10: 0 / 642 3D 23:15: 0 / 642 2D 11:00: 0 / 642 2D 14:00: 4 / 642 2D 17:05: 2 / 642 OV 2D 11:10: 0 / 624 OV 2D 14:15: 5 / 344 Total: 11 / 5568 -> 0.20% (this is ridiculous!) Sunday: OV 3D 17:20: 0 / 344 OV 3D 20:25: 2 / 344 3D 14:30: 3 / 351 3D 17:35: 3 / 351 3D 20:10: 0 / 642 3D 23:15: 0 / 642 2D 11:00: 5 / 642 2D 14:00: 4 / 642 2D 17:05: 0 / 642 OV 2D 11:10: 0 / 624 OV 2D 14:15: 2 / 344 Total: 19 / 5568 -> 0.34% Overall without previews: 85 / 19740 -> 0.43% Overall with Previews: 215 / 20364 -> 1.06% This is at 70.8% of John Wick for the Weekend, which is way better than in Bremen, where it’s at 50%. Total: 1 day out: Previews: 276 / 1650 -> 16.7% Wend: 235 / 41155 -> 0.6% John Wick 3: Spoiler Tuesday 21thMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-1) Cinestar Bremen 21thMay 23:59 MESZ (T-1) Previews: Wednesday 3D 20:15: 111 / 425 -> 13.7 % It started presales today and it’s only getting three! Showings, WTF, Aladdin gets 6, what’s wrong with them? And just a third of the available seats! Thursday: 2D 16:30: 7 / 296 2D 20:10: 33 / 425 2D 22:40: 4 / 175 Total: 44 / 896 -> 4.9% Friday: 2D 16:30: 2 / 296 2D 20:10: 48 / 425 2D 22:40: 14 / 175 Total: 64 / 896 -> 7.1% Saturday: 2D 16:30: 6 / 296 2D 20:10: 48 / 425 2D 22:40: 0 / 175 Total: 54 / 896 -> 6% Sunday: OV 2D 20:10: 2 / 170 2D 16:30: 2 / 296 2D 20:10: 9 / 425 Total: 13 / 891 -> 6% Overall without previews: 175 / 3579 -> 4.9% Overall with Previews: 286 / 4004 -> 7.1% Aladin: 88 woP and 164 wP So 198.8 without Previews of Aladin and 174.4% with Previews. Detective Pika: 157 woP and 332 wP So it’s at 111.5% of Pika’s Weekend without Previews (Pika’s was on sale for two days, Aladdin only started today) and at 86.1% with Previews. Based on this Comp it would be: 450k (+27.5k Previews) for 477.5k – 4thbiggest OWend of the year or if using the Preview number it would be at 385k with Previews and probably around 355k without the Previews. Endgame: Previews: 565 (Previews) and 1848 (4-day) (These are calculated slightly different due to Endgame opening one day earlier) So it’s at 4.8% of the Weekend and at 19.6% of the Previews. That would be a 160k OWend or a 330k if we use just the Previews an estimate the whole weekend by that percentage. So overall I think this might be able to get to an OWend of around 350k + 25k or so in Previews. Tuesday 21thMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-1) CinemaxX Bremen Wednesday – Previews 2D 20:00: 125 / 505 -> 24.8% (+13) 2D 20:20: 32 / 505 -> 6.3% (+10) Total: 157 / 1010 -> 15.5% (+23) Thursday: OV 2D 19:30: 27 / 228 2D 14:10: 5 / 135 2D 17:15: 0 / 505 2D 20:30: 32 / 505 2D 23:00: 2 / 454 Total: 66 / 1827 -> 0.7% Friday: 2D 14:10: 2 / 135 2D 17:15: 4 / 505 2D 20:30: 21 / 505 2D 23:00: 14 / 454 Total: 41 / 1599 -> 0.6% Saturday: OV 2D 22:45: 2 / 92 2D 14:10: 0 / 135 2D 17:15: 2 / 505 2D 19:00: 2 / 288 2D 20:30: 6 / 505 2D 23:00: 0 / 454 Total: 12 / 1982 -> 0.0% Sunday: 276 / 2D 17:15: 0 / 505 2D 20:30: 0 / 505 2D 23:00: 0 / 454 Total: 0 / 1464 -> 0.0% Total without Previews: 119 / 6872 -> 1.7% Total with Previews: 276 / 7882 -> 3.5% Tuesday 21thMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-1) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt 21thMay 23:59 MESZ (T-1) Previews: Wednesday 3D 20:15: 242 / 642 -> 37.7 % Thursday: 2D 16:50: 16 / 624 2D 20:00: 31 / 624 2D 23:10: 8 / 624 Total: 55 / 1872 -> 2.9% Friday: 2D 16:50: 6 / 624 2D 20:00: 20 / 624 2D 23:10: 6 / 624 Total: 32 / 1872 -> 1.7% Saturday: 2D 16:50: 5 / 624 2D 20:00: 21 / 624 2D 23:10: 6 / 624 Total: 32 / 1872 -> 1.7% Sunday: 2D 16:50: 1 / 624 2D 20:00: 0 / 624 2D 23:10: 0 / 624 Total: 1 / 1872 -> 0.05% Overall without previews: 120 / 7488 -> 1.6% Overall with Previews: 362 / 8130 -> 7.1% Really interesting that Previews are more than double the one in Bremen, but all the days apart from Thursday are smaller with Sunday basically non-existent. Total: 1 day out: Previews: 510 / 2077 (about 20% from Cinestar Bremen) Wend: 414 / 17939 (interestingly 40% from Cinestar Bremen) Predictions based on Cinestar Bremen Aladdin: 225k OWend John Wick: 350k OWend Also Cinemaxx started their presales for Spider-Man, it got 4! Preview shows in Bremen. Edited May 21, 2019 by Taruseth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted May 22, 2019 Author Share Posted May 22, 2019 8 hours ago, Aristis said: I think it was a Sunday event (which would make the PTA even crazier). I'm not totally sure though... Yeah I saw that later, was only a Sunday event - obviously near sellout everywhere. These events are a real treat for theaters, might see a lot more of them in the future (I made a thread here a few years ago about the MET live program - always a sellout, and mostly spenders too; there's extra catering plus the standard concession). I myself attended a worldcup game in 3D once (Germany-Argentina), that was not a complete sellout but very well attended. In a time when classic movie-going is obviously on the decline, such events may well prove the straw to help cinemas survive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted May 22, 2019 Author Share Posted May 22, 2019 7 hours ago, Taruseth said: Predictions based on Cinestar Bremen Aladdin: 225k OWend John Wick: 350k OWend that would be fine for both! kepping those fingers crossed ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 (edited) Update: Aladdin: Spoiler Wednesday 22thMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Bremen 21thMay 23:59 MESZ (T-1) Previews: Wednesday 3D 20:00: 76 / 572 -> 13.7 % Thursday: 3D 14:30: 0 / 425 3D 17:30: 4 / 425 3D 19: 50: 29 / 572 3D 22:10: 0 / 280 2D 14:00: 0 / 425 2D 16:50: 6 / 572 Total: 39 / 2699 -> 1.4% (+15) Friday: 3D 14:30: 2 / 425 3D 17:30: 0 / 425 3D 19:50: 27 / 572 3D 22:10: 2 / 280 2D 14:00: 0 / 425 2D 16:50: 18 / 572 Total: 49 / 2699 -> 1.8% (+14) Saturday: 3D 14:30: 4 / 425 3D 17:30: 3 / 425 3D 19:50: 17 / 572 3D 22:10: 8 / 280 2D 14:00: 0 / 425 2D 16:50: 4 / 572 Total: 36 / 2699 -> 1.3% (+22) Sunday: 3D 11:30: 0 / 425 3D 14:30: 13 / 425 3D 17:30: 0 / 425 3D 19:50: 2 / 572 2D 11:10: 12 / 322 2D 13:50: 0 / 425 2D 16:50: 3 / 572 Total: 30 / 3166 -> 0.9% (+15) Overall without previews: 154 / 11263 -> 1.4% (+66) Overall with Previews: 230+ / 11835 -> 1.9% Detective Pika: 322 woP and 497+ wP So it’s at 47.8% of Pika’s Weekend without Previews. Based on this Comp it would be: 195k (+15k Previews) for 210k, basically the OWend of MPR. Sorry, but this is a trainwreck. Endgame: Previews: 1848 (4-day) (one more day out, estimates for same time 2500) So it’s at 6.2% of the Weekend. That would be a 110k OWend. This leads me to think that it might have a shot at 200k, so I wouldn’t bet on it. It really increased less than Pika today, this is going to fail epically. Wednesday 22ndMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) CinemaxX Bremen Wednesday – Previews 2D 20:20: 70 / 454 -> 15.4% (+11) Thursday: OV 2D 19:00: 38 / 288 3D 14:40: 1 / 260 3D 16:30: 0 / 454 3D 19:40: 19 /454 3D 22:45: 2 /228 2D 14:10: 0 / 505 2D 16:45: 13 / 280 Total: 73 / 2469 -> 3% (+32) Friday: OV 2D 19:15: 10 / 280 3D 14:40: 0 / 260 3D 16:30: 0 / 454 3D 19:40: 14 /454 3D 22:45: 0 /228 2D 14:10: 0 / 505 2D 17:00: 0 / 228 Total: 24 / 2409 -> 1% (+14) Saturday: OV 2D 20:00: 6 / 280 3D 14:30: 2 / 260 3D 16:30: 0 / 454 3D 19:40: 7 /454 3D 22:20: 5 /228 2D 11:50: 0 / 288 2D 14:00: 0 / 505 2D 16:50: 6 / 228 Total: 26 / 2637 -> 1% (+20) Sunday: OV 2D 19:00: 2 / 288 3D 14:30: 0 / 260 3D 16:10: 0 / 454 3D 19:30: 0 /454 3D 22:20: 0 /228 2D 11:50: 0 / 288 2D 14:00: 9 / 505 2D 17:20: 0 / 228 Total: 11 / 2637 -> 0.4% (+6) Total without Previews: 134 / 10152 -> 1.3%(+72) Total with Previews: 204 / 10606 -> 1.9% (+72) Wednesday 22ndMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt 22ndMay 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Previews: Wednesday 3D 19:45: 130 / 624 -> 20.8 % Thursday: OV 3D 17:20: 13 / 344 OV 3D 20:25: 22 / 344 3D 14:30: 0 / 351 3D 17:35: 2 / 351 3D 20:10: 11 / 642 3D 23:15: 0 / 642 2D 14:00: 7 / 642 2D 17:05: 14 / 642 OV 2D 14:15: 1 / 344 Total: 70 / 4302 -> 1.6% (+46) Friday: OV 3D 17:20: 4 / 344 OV 3D 20:25: 19 / 344 3D 14:30: 0 / 351 3D 17:35: 0 / 351 3D 20:10: 41 / 642 3D 23:15: 0 / 642 2D 14:00: 0 / 642 2D 17:05: 3 / 642 OV 2D 14:15: 2 / 344 Total: 69 / 4302 -> 1.6% (+38) Saturday: OV 3D 17:20: 2 / 344 OV 3D 20:25: 10 / 344 3D 14:30: 0 / 351 3D 17:35: 2 / 351 3D 20:10: 7 / 642 3D 23:15: 0 / 642 2D 11:00: 2 / 642 2D 14:00: 8 / 642 2D 17:05: 4 / 642 OV 2D 11:10: 0 / 624 OV 2D 14:15: 9 / 344 Total: 32 / 5568 -> 0.6% (+21) Sunday: OV 3D 17:20: 6 / 344 OV 3D 20:25: 2 / 344 3D 14:30: 3 / 351 3D 17:35: 9 / 351 3D 20:10: 0 / 642 3D 23:15: 0 / 642 2D 11:00: 5 / 642 2D 14:00: 4 / 642 2D 17:05: 0 / 642 OV 2D 11:10: 0 / 624 OV 2D 14:15: 5 / 344 Total: 34 / 5568 -> 0.6% (+15) Overall without previews: 205 / 19740 -> 1% (+120) Overall with Previews: 355+ / 20364 -> 1.76% This is at 70.7% of John Wick for the Weekend (compared to 70.8% yesterday), so in total contrast to Bremen were Aladdin totally lost every drive compared to John Wick here both increase pretty similar. 0 days out: Wend: 493 / 41155 -> 1.2% (+258) John Wick 3 Spoiler Wednesday 22ndMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Bremen 22ndMay 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Previews: Wednesday (counted at 20:15) – no comparison as I forgot Aladdin and DP 3D 20:15: 175 / 425 -> 41.2 % (+64) Thursday: 2D 16:30: 19 / 296 2D 20:10: 97 / 425 2D 22:40: 6 / 175 Total: 122 / 896 -> 13.6% (+78) Friday: 2D 16:30: 4 / 296 2D 20:10: 129 / 425 2D 22:40: 14 / 175 Total: 147 / 896 -> 16.4% (+83) Saturday: 2D 16:30: 32 / 296 2D 20:10: 103 / 425 2D 22:40: 6 / 175 Total: 141 / 896 -> 15.7% (+87) Sunday: OV 2D 20:10: 4 / 170 2D 16:30: 15 / 296 2D 20:10: 16 / 425 Total: 35 / 891 -> 3.9% (+22) Overall without previews: 445 / 3579 -> 12.4% (+270) Overall with Previews: 620 / 4004 -> 15.5% (+334) Aladin: 154 woP and 164 wP So 289% without Previews of Aladin (compared to 198% yesterday!!!!!!!!!) Detective Pika: 322 woP and 497+ wP So it’s at 138% of Pika’s Weekend without Previews and at <124% with Previews (forgot to count the final previews for Pika, so won’t use this). Based on this Comp it would be: 560k (+40k Previews) for 600k – 4thbiggest OWend of the year or if using the Preview number it would be at <550k with Previews and probably around <510k without the Previews. Endgame: Previews: 565 (Previews – final numbers) and 1848 (4-day) (one more day out, so maybe around 2500 or so at the same time) So it’s at 18% of the Weekend and at 31% of the Previews. That would translate to a 300k OWend or a 545k OWend. Damn, this looks really impressive. Wednesday 22ndMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) CinemaxX Bremen Wednesday – Previews 2D 20:00: 125 / 505 -> 24.8% (+13) 2D 20:20: 32 / 505 -> 6.3% (+10) Total: 157 / 1010 -> 15.5% (+23) Thursday: OV 2D 19:30: 54 / 228 2D 14:10: 5 / 135 2D 17:15: 6 / 505 2D 20:30: 56 / 505 2D 23:00: 8 / 454 Total: 129 / 1827 -> 7.1% (+63) Friday: 2D 14:10: 2 / 135 2D 17:15: 4 / 505 2D 20:30: 45 / 505 2D 23:00: 17 / 454 Total: 68 / 1599 -> 4.3% (+27) Saturday: OV 2D 22:45: 5 / 92 2D 14:10: 3 / 135 2D 17:15: 4 / 505 2D 19:00: 2 / 288 2D 20:30: 9 / 505 2D 23:00: 2 / 454 Total: 25 / 1982 -> 1.3% (+13) Sunday: 2D 17:15: 0 / 505 2D 20:30: 5 / 505 2D 23:00: 5 / 454 Total: 10 / 1464 -> 0.7% (+10) Total without Previews: 232 / 6872 -> 1.7% (+113) Wednesday 22thMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt 22thMay 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Previews: Wednesday 3D 20:15: 365 / 642 -> 56.9 % (+123) Thursday: 2D 16:50: 21 / 624 2D 20:00: 55 / 624 2D 23:10: 12 / 624 OV 2D 20:15: 11 / 283 (NEW) OV 2D 23:25: 2 / 283 (NEW) Total: 101 / 2438 -> 4.1% (+ 46 / 566) Friday: 2D 16:50: 16 / 624 2D 20:00: 64 / 624 2D 23:10: 12 / 624 OV 2D 20:15: 20 / 283 (NEW) OV 2D 23:25: 0 / 283 (NEW) Total: 112 / 2438 -> 4.6% (+ 80 / 566) Saturday: 2D 16:50: 12 / 624 2D 20:00: 47 / 624 2D 23:10: 8 / 624 OV 2D 20:15: 6 / 283 (NEW) OV 2D 23:25: 0 / 283 (NEW) Total: 73 / 2438 -> 3% (+ 41 / 566) Sunday: 2D 16:50: 1 / 624 2D 20:00: 0 / 624 2D 23:10: 1 / 624 OV 2D 20:15: 2 / 283 (NEW) OV 2D 23:25: 0 / 283 (NEW) Total: 4 / 2438 -> 0.2% (+3 / 566) Overall without previews: 290 / 7488 -> 1.6% (+170) Overall with Previews: 655 / 8130 -> 8.1% (+293) Really interesting that Previews are more than double the one in Bremen, but all the days apart from Thursday are smaller with Sunday basically non-existent. 0 days out: Wend: 967 / 20203 (+553 / 2264)) (interestingly 46% from Cinestar Bremen) should be around 1/3 each, maybe Metropolis a little higher. Initially I had planned to add more cinemas (maybe some of the other big ones for CinemaxX and Cinestar) but this takes quite some time, so I won't, some movies also might only get the Cinestar Bremen. Updated predictions: Aladdin: 200k (insidekino says 425k) John Wick: 400k (insidekino says 375k) Will upadte Previews for the others probably Sunday (for all including Spider-Man and Pets 2 in CinemaxX Bremen) Edited May 23, 2019 by Taruseth 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 I hope my theater isnt an indication of how well Aladdin will be doing. Sales are diabolical. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brainbug said: I hope my theater isnt an indication of how well Aladdin will be doing. Sales are diabolical. I am wondering what you mean with that... Could it could mean hasn't sold a single ticket or it could mean that it is basically selling out every show... I kinda think it's not the later... Today I counted the numbers at all three theaters for all showings around the time they started and will do so for the 3 shows for Aladdin after 22pm and for the 4 shows for John Wick 3. I haven't added up any numbers till now, so I don't really have an idea where they are heading but I'd say that John wick looks pretty good and Aladdin is somewhat in line with what I thought. I am really intersted if insidekino in the end will be correct, he is way better at this than I am and probably has way more info than I do. And his predictions is so different from mine. honestly hops his turns out true and not mine, would give me some hope for TLK, cause if you would have asked me two years ago, I would have asked TLK's number will probably will be around double of Aladdin... If Aladdin really opens with 200k, that would mean 400k for TLK, so a little less than half of B&tB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, Taruseth said: I am wondering what you mean with that... I have a friend who works at the theater and he told me that the sales are very comparable ... ... to Pet Sematary. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 @Taruseth my theater must be an outlier. I checked some other theaters in Frankfurt and Wiesbaden and there Aladdin looks alright. Strange, really. Normally my theater overperformrs for nearly everything lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 (edited) At my theaters (mathäser, Cinemaxx), Aladdin is doing ok but also not overwhelming. The biggest problem for the film is probably the predicted mixed to sunny weather for the weekend after a - at least where I live - so far miserable cold and grey May. According to the Thursday estimates John Wick 3 had a fine day with ca. 73k admissions, Aladdin had 35k (but evening only). In the South-West-report it looks pretty similar: John Wick 3 had ca. twice as many admissions as Aladdin. Edited May 23, 2019 by el sid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 (edited) So I apparently had too much time today so I counted all but one show around the time they started ±15 minutes. Aladdin: Spoiler Thursday 23rdMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-(-1)) Cinestar Bremen[SK1] 21thMay 23:59 MESZ (T-1) Previews: Wednesday 3D 20:00: 76 / 572 -> 13.7 % Thursday: 3D 14:30: 5 / 425 3D 17:30: 37 / 425 3D 19:50: 75 / 572 3D 22:10: 22 / 280 2D 14:00: 3 / 425 2D 16:50: 30 / 572 Total: 172 / 2699 -> 6.4% (+133 / +341%) Friday: 3D 14:30: 2 / 425 3D 17:30: 2 / 425 3D 19:50: 59 / 572 3D 22:10: 6 / 280 2D 14:00: 2 / 425 2D 16:50: 27 / 572 Total: 98 / 2699 -> 3.6% (+49) Saturday: 3D 14:30: 4 / 425 3D 17:30: 3 / 425 3D 19:50: 28 / 572 3D 22:10: 11 / 280 2D 14:00: 2 / 425 2D 16:50: 12 / 572 Total: 60 / 2699 -> 2.2% (+24) Sunday: 3D 11:30: 2 / 425 3D 14:30: 17 / 425 3D 17:30: 2 / 425 3D 19:50: 7 / 572 2D 11:10: 12 / 322 2D 13:50: 7 / 425 2D 16:50: 3 / 572 Total: 50 / 3166 -> 1.6% (+20) Overall without previews: 380 / 11263 -> 3.4% (+226) So Friday is 151% above the points Thursday was at the same time before (so midnight / 24 h ago). Saturday is 22% above Friday and Sunday is 39% above Saturday. With a 40k Friday this would mean: 40k 100k 120k 165k For a 425k, sorry, but this is not happening. Thursday 23rdMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-(-1)) CinemaxX Bremen[SK1] Wednesday – Previews 2D 20:20: 70 / 454 -> 15.4% (+11) Thursday: OV 2D 19:00: 47 / 288 3D 14:40: 2 / 260 3D 16:30: 0 / 454 3D 19:40: 37 /454 3D 22:45: 8 /228 2D 14:10: 0 / 505 2D 16:45: 20 / 280 Total: 114 / 2469 -> 4.6% (+41 / +56%) Friday: OV 2D 19:15: 24 / 280 3D 14:40: 0 / 260 3D 16:30: 0 / 454 3D 19:40: 30 /454 3D 22:45: 2 /228 2D 14:10: 0 / 505 2D 17:00: 3 / 228 Total: 59 / 2409 -> 2.4% (+35) Saturday: OV 2D 20:00: 13 / 280 3D 14:30: 2 / 260 3D 16:30: 0 / 454 3D 19:40: 14 /454 3D 22:20: 7 /228 2D 11:50: 0 / 288 2D 14:00: 0 / 505 2D 16:50: 12 / 228 Total: 48 / 2637 -> 1.8% (+22) Sunday: OV 2D 19:00: 6 / 288 3D 14:30: 0 / 260 3D 16:10: 1 / 454 3D 19:30: 0 /454 3D 22:20: 0 /228 2D 11:50: 0 / 288 2D 14:00: 12 / 505 2D 17:20: 6 / 228 Total: 25 / 2637 -> 0.9% (+14) Total without Previews: 246 / 10152 -> 2.4%(+112) Thursday 23rdMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-(-1)) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt[SK1] 22ndMay 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Previews: Wednesday 3D 19:45: 130 / 624 -> 20.8 % Thursday: OV 3D 17:20: 20 / 344 OV 3D 20:25: 22 / 344 3D 14:30: 5 / 351 3D 17:35: 18 / 351 3D 20:10: 46 / 642 3D 23:15: 12 / 642 (all seats sold are love seats, lol) 2D 14:00: 3 / 642 2D 17:05: 43 / 642 OV 2D 14:15: 10 / 344 Total: 179 / 4302 -> 1.6% (+109 / +156%) Friday: OV 3D 17:20: 6 / 344 OV 3D 20:25: 49 / 344 3D 14:30: 0 / 351 3D 17:35: 2 / 351 3D 20:10: 54 / 642 3D 23:15: 2 / 642 2D 14:00: 2 / 642 2D 17:05: 9 / 642 OV 2D 14:15: 4 / 344 Total: 124 / 4302 -> 2.9% (+55) Saturday: OV 3D 17:20: 10 / 344 OV 3D 20:25: 22 / 344 3D 14:30: 0 / 351 3D 17:35: 4 / 351 3D 20:10: 14 / 642 3D 23:15: 0 / 642 2D 11:00: 2 / 642 2D 14:00: 10 / 642 2D 17:05: 4 / 642 OV 2D 11:10: 0 / 624 OV 2D 14:15: 13 / 344 Total: 79 / 5568 -> 1.4% (+47) Sunday: OV 3D 17:20: 6 / 344 OV 3D 20:25: 2 / 344 3D 14:30: 3 / 351 3D 17:35: 9 / 351 3D 20:10: 0 / 642 3D 23:15: 0 / 642 2D 11:00: 5 / 642 2D 14:00: 9 / 642 2D 17:05: 0 / 642 OV 2D 11:10: 1 / 624 OV 2D 14:15: 7 / 344 Total: 42 / 5568 -> 0.8% (+8) Overall without previews: 424 / 19740 -> 2.1% (+219) FSS: 245 / 15438 -> 1.6% Friday is just 77% higher than Thursday was at the same point, Saturday is 15% higher than Friday and Sunday is 31% higher than Saturday was 24h ago, though this appears to be an outliner. Using a 40k Thursday: 40k 70k 80k 104k / 70k 294k / 260k, the former number won’t happen because an increase like that on Sunday is unlikely for this movie. Total: Thursday: 465 (counted at the time the showing started – 24h ago: 182) Friday: 281 (24h ago: 142) Saturday: 187 (24h ago: 94) Sunday: 117 So Friday is 54% bigger, Saturday is 31% bigger than Friday and Sunday is 24% bigger than Saturday, that with the 40k Thursday (estimates): 40k 60k 80k 100k for a 280k weekend, with a more reasonable 60-70k Sunday this would still be a 240-250k weekend. Not sold on that yet, still being cautious about this one and I’ll stay close to my 200k prediction from yesterday as I fear that Thursday might be overestimated a little bit. If you look into the detailed one, this is a mess that's all over the place, if it follows the cinemaxx than welp it's opening to basically nothing. John Wick 3: Spoiler Thursday 23rdMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-(-1)) Cinestar Bremen[SK1] 23rdMay 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Previews: Wednesday (counted at 20:15) – no comparison as I forgot Aladdin and DP 3D 20:15: 175 / 425 -> 41.2 % (+64) Thursday: 2D 16:30: 36 / 296 2D 20:10: 155 / 425 2D 22:40: 51 / 175 Total: 242 / 896 -> 27% (+120 / +98.3%) Friday: 2D 16:30: 9 / 296 2D 20:10: 150 / 425 2D 20:10: 18 / 170 (NEW) 2D 22:40: 37 / 175 Total: 214 / 1066 -> 20% (+67) Saturday: 2D 16:30: 49 / 296 2D 20:10: 125 / 425 2D 20:10: 16 / 170 (NEW) 2D 22:40: 21 / 175 Total: 211 / 1066 -> 19.8% (+70) Sunday: OV 2D 20:10: 24 / 170 2D 16:30: 17 / 296 2D 20:10: 20 / 425 Total: 61 / 891 -> 6.8% (+26) Overall without previews: 728 / 3919 -> 12.4% (+283) Friday is right now 75% bigger than Thursday was 24h ago, that ratio is 44% bigger for Saturday compared to Friday and Sunday is 57% smaller right now compared to Saturday So with a 70k Thursday: 70k 120k 185k 80k For a 455k OWend without Previews, which would honestly be really good, so right now I’d still say 400k is where this is headed with a significant potential to perform above that and reach something closer to 500k than 400k. Thursday 23rdMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-(-1)) CinemaxX Bremen[SK1] Wednesday – Previews 2D 20:00: 125 / 505 -> 24.8% (+13) 2D 20:20: 32 / 505 -> 6.3% (+10) Total: 157 / 1010 -> 15.5% (+23) Thursday: OV 2D 19:30: 70 / 228 2D 14:10: 5 / 135 2D 17:15: 22 / 505 2D 20:30: 145 / 505 2D 23:00: 48 / 454 Total: 290 / 1827 -> 15.9% (+161 / +125%) Friday: 2D 14:10: 2 / 135 2D 17:15: 4 / 505 2D 20:30: 68 / 505 2D 23:00: 24 / 454 Total: 98 / 1599 -> 4.3% (+27) Saturday: OV 2D 22:45: 9 / 92 2D 14:10: 3 / 135 2D 17:15: 4 / 505 2D 19:00: 16 / 288 2D 20:30: 14 / 505 2D 23:00: 5 / 454 Total: 51 / 1982 -> 1.3% (+26) Sunday: OV 2D: 19:20: 3 / 288 (NEW) 2D 17:15: 8 / 505 2D 20:30: 5 / 505 2D 23:00: 7 / 454 Total: 23 / 1752 -> 0.7% (+10) Total without Previews: 232 / 6872 -> 1.7% (+113) Thursday 23rdMay 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-(-1)) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt[SK1] 22thMay 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Previews: Wednesday 3D 20:15: 365 / 642 -> 56.9 % (+123) Thursday: 2D 16:50: 51 / 624 2D 20:00: 140 / 624 (this is just a rough guess) 2D 23:10: 69 / 624 OV 2D 20:15: 86 / 283 OV 2D 23:25: 17 / 283 Total: 363 / 2438 -> 14.9% (+262 / +260%) Friday: 2D 16:50: 16 / 624 2D 20:00: 131 / 624 2D 23:10: 26 / 624 OV 2D 20:15: 59 / 283 OV 2D 23:25: 2 / 283 Total: 234 / 2438 -> 9.6% (+ 122) Saturday: 2D 16:50: 18 / 624 2D 20:00: 60 / 624 2D 23:10: 13 / 624 OV 2D 20:15: 39 / 283 OV 2D 23:25: 0 / 283 Total: 130 / 2438 -> 5.3% (+ 57) Sunday: 2D 16:50: 5 / 624 2D 20:00: 3 / 624 2D 23:10: 1 / 624 OV 2D 20:15: 9 / 283 OV 2D 23:25: 0 / 283 Total: 18 / 2438 -> 0.2% (+14) Overall without previews: 745 / 7488 -> 9.9% (+455) Overall with Previews: 1110 / 8130 -> 13.7% (+455) FSS: 380 / 7314 -> 5.2% Sunday is still severely lacking, Friday is right now 2.3x as large as Thursday was 24h ago and Saturday is 16% larger. Sunday right now is at 24.7% of Saturday at the same point in time. Based on a 70k Thursday this would lead too: 70k 160k 185k 50k / 125k So a 465k / 540k Weekend, both things look somewhat high. Cinestar Bremen seems to be really presales heavy as it accounts for 54 / 60% of the presales for Saturday / Sunday while making up just 27% of the adm. On Thursday. Total: Thursday: 895 (counted at the time the showing started – 24h ago: 352) Friday: 546 (24h ago: 327) Saturday: 392 (24h ago: 239) Sunday: 102 So Friday is 55% bigger, Saturday is 20% bigger than Friday and Sunday is 57% smallerr than Saturday, that with the 70k Thursday (estimates): 70k 110k 130k 55k for a 365k weekend, with a more reasonable 90-110k Sunday be a 400-410k weekend. Or maybe Sunday will really drop that much. So overall I am going to stay with 200k for Aladdin and 400k for John Wick, on the other hand if those 40k and 70k turn out true, than Aladdin as a family friendly movie should have comparable stronger Saturdays and Sundays and should end up closer over the whole weekend than it was today. Also, I feel like those jumps for the total ones are to small compared to the single ones, but I am too tired to look over these numbers again. Edited May 23, 2019 by Taruseth 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted May 24, 2019 Author Share Posted May 24, 2019 (edited) insidekino.de estimates Wick3 and Aladdin at 400k each, really excellent! Pikachu drops 41%, Avengers 53% Edited May 24, 2019 by IndustriousAngel 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said: insidekino.de estimates Wick3 and Aladdin at 400k each, really excellent! Pikachu drops 41%, Avengers 53% For the 4-day weekend he estimates Aladdin at 375k and John Wick 3 at 355k (which would be somewhat close to the total number with the weak Sunday (drop of more than 50%). Would be good, especially for Aladdin. Also I feel more and more like I fucked up the total calculations and need to go over them again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 (edited) And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film): The new releases: John Wick 3 (released in 546 theaters; the first movie of this series had 141.537 admissions OW, the second one had 227.790): 50k/502k US$ Aladdin (released in 665 theaters): 30k - with that Thursday number and the sunshine I think the first trend is rather optimistic but normally Mark_G is right Edie (88): 1.5k All My Loving (56): 1k Die rote Linie (?): 620 The holdovers: Avengers: Endgame: 11k (actuals last Thursday 30k) → 100k admissions OW in the first trend Pika: 11.5k (30k) → 150k admissions OW The Hustle: 8k (17k) → 70k admissions OW Edited May 24, 2019 by el sid 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 21 minutes ago, el sid said: And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film): The new releases: John Wick 3 (released in 546 theaters; the first movie of this series had 141.537 admissions OW, the second one had 227.790): 50k/502k US$ Aladdin (released in 665 theaters): 30k - with that Thursday number and the sunshine I think the first trend is rather optimistic but normally Mark_G is right Edie (88): 1.5k All My Loving (56): 1k Die rote Linie (?): 620 The holdovers: Avengers: Endgame: 11k (actuals last Thursday 30k) → 100k admissions OW in the first trend Pika: 11.5k (30k) → 150k admissions OW The Hustle: 8k (17k) → 70k admissions OW So both were overestimated yesterday, that's not really good. I agree with you, his outlook looks reall optimistic. Endgame won't get to 5m now, think it will end the run around 4.95m or so: This is what I thought with first estimates for 3rd Weekend: On 5/10/2019 at 11:47 AM, Taruseth said: Endgame slightly worse than I thought: Reveal hidden contents Endgame vs TLJ (In brackets are the totals) - Final for TLJ was 5906k Before Weekend: 462k vs 0k -> +462k OWend: 1672k (2134k) vs 1627k -> +45k (+507k) OWdays: 707k (2841k) vs 490k (2117k) ->+217k (+724k) 2nd Wend: 871k (3712k) vs 721k (2838k) -> +150k (+874k) 2nd Wdays: 163k (3875k) vs 706k (3544k) -> -548k (+326k) 3rd Wend: 425k (4300k) vs 849k (4393k) -> -424k (+93k) 3rd Wdays: 90k (4390k) vs 351k (4744k) -> -261k (-354k) 4th Wend: 275k (4665k) vs 467k (5211k) -> -192k (-546k) 4th Wdays: 60k (4725k) vs 91k (5302k) -> -31k (-577k) 5th Wend: 150k (4875k) vs 202k (5504k) -> -52k (-629k) 5th Wdays: 35k (4910k) vs 49k (5553k) -> -14k (-643k) 6th Wend: 90k (5000k) vs 110k (5663k) -> -20k (-663k) 6th Wdays: 25k (5025k) vs 28k (5691k) -> -3k (-666k) TLJ had 215k more admissions after that, if Endgame would add that it would get to 5240k, which is probably the highest it could go, would mean a little below €60m, translating to ~$67m. It would also mean that it would beat Spider-Man 1 (5186k) in adm. More realistic would probably a finish closer to 5m adm and with that slightly below Spider-Man 1. Now this changes to: Endgame vs TLJ (In brackets are the totals) - Final for TLJ was 5906k Before Weekend: 462k vs 0k -> +462k OWend: 1672k (2134k) vs 1627k -> +45k (+507k) OWdays: 707k (2841k) vs 490k (2117k) ->+217k (+724k) 2nd Wend: 871k (3712k) vs 721k (2838k) -> +150k (+874k) 2nd Wdays: 162k (3874k) vs 706k (3544k) -> -544k (+330k) 3rd Wend: 419k (4293k) vs 849k (4393k) -> -430k (+100k) 3rd Wdays: 94k (4387k) vs 351k (4744k) -> -257k (-357k) 4th Wend: 214k (4601k) vs 467k (5211k) -> -253k (-610k) 4th Wdays: 44k (4645k) vs 91k (5302k) -> -47k (-657k) 5th Wend: 100k (4745k) vs 202k (5504k) -> -102k (-759k) 5th Wdays: 25k (4770k) vs 49k (5553k) -> -14k (-643k) 6th Wend: 60k (4830k) vs 110k (5663k) -> -20k (-663k) 6th Wdays: 15k (4845k) vs 28k (5691k) -> -3k (-666k) Reason for the rather good 6th Weekend drop is that next Thursday is Christi Himmelfart (Ascension of Jesus) and that is a nation wide holiday that also should help Wednesday evening so the drops for the weekdays will also be a little less. None the less it would be 180k behind what I initially thought with a weekend that is just 2/3 of what I predicted and optimistic back than was 5240k as final (using TLJ which would have had a higher weekend by quite a bit) now that is basically impossible (if something doesn't add up it's because of rounding problems, appears during th 10th Wdays of TLJ witch were 2589 adm and before it the movie was at 5876772 so the wdays would be rounded up to 3k but adding the true number the total would be 5879361 which rounded would be just 2k more) 7th Wend: 30k (4875k) vs 70k (5761k) 7th Wdays: 8k (4883k) vs 19k (5780k) 8th Wend: 20k (4903k) vs 42k (5822k) 8th Wdays: 5k (4908k) vs 11k (5833k) 9th Wend: 15k (4923k) vs 24k (5857k) 9th Wdays: 4k (4927k) vs 9k (5866k) 10th Wend: 8k (4935k) vs 11k (5877k) 10th Wdays: 2k (4937k) vs 3k (5879k) It maybe will add around 10-20k more after that, so it would finish aroun 4.95m adm ≈ €56m ≈ $62.5m. Which still would be +45% / + 46% / + 39% compared to IW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danhtruong5 Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 (edited) Thanks for your information. So after the 10th week, it still can add 20k ads more. Nice to hear that. Edited May 24, 2019 by danhtruong5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 13 hours ago, danhtruong5 said: Thanks for your information. So after the 10th week, it still can add 20k ads more. Nice to hear that. it could especially if it gets some small bost from Spider-Man, if that doesn't happen it also could be below 10k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...