brazil Brazil Box Office Thread

[Flamengo81]

Just now, Bobzaruni said:

(what is the limit for this, Avengers record in threat? Does it have the showings for that?)

I started tracking this year, so no Endgame or NWH previews numbers. But with that level of occupancy and this number of showings, unless Salvador is overindexing like crazy and this is somehow even more frontloaded than both, I don't think it's impossible for this to become the highest opening of all time, it might sound madness to say that, but it is what it is.

[Bobzaruni]

1 minute ago, Flamengo81 said:

I started tracking this year, so no Endgame or NWH previews numbers. But with that level of occupancy and this number of showings, unless Salvador is overindexing like crazy and this is somehow even more frontloaded than both, I don't think it's impossible for this to become the highest opening of all time, it might sound madness to say that, but it is what it is.

🤯

[Bob-omb]

6 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

The trendline for Barbie search volume is doubling Mario's peak for the week before release in Brazil😲😲😲😲😲😲

Compare Mario Bros movie and Barbie movie. Otherwise, you get skewed results . But I get your point haha

[Flamengo81]

2 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

Compare Mario Bros movie and Barbie movie. Otherwise, you get skewed results . But I get your point haha

Whatever comparisons you make the results are the same, I did this too. If you just compare "Barbie" with "Mario" you get the same results too...

[Bob-omb]

Oh, I did it with Mario Bros Movie and Barbie Movie. But it seems that nobody uses "Barbie Movie" anywhere. XD

[JustLurking]

45 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-03

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
67	15079	8070	53.52%

 

SEATS SOLD IN THE PAST 2 DAYS

3817

 

COMPS T-03

The Little Mermaid – 24.234x

Into The Spiderverse – 21.293x (37.47M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 13.961x (43.46M)

Fast X – 14.65x (73.23M)

 

I mean... the numbers are the numbers. I don't even know what to say, what the numbers are suggesting is an opening for the ages. Are they "wrong" and this is actually an insane frontloaded movie? Don't know and won't even try to respond that question. 

 

Note 1: By the way, this is with one less Theater since Cinepolis Bela Vista closed this month.

Note 2: The Flash comp will return at T-01, I missed T-03 😕.

Amidst all the craziness, aren't these comps bound to hit a wall unless theaters really expand this? 53% sold at t-3 is ridiculous, doesn't leave a ton of space for walkups to be big at this rate even with how crazy ps are

[ThatWaluigiDude]

At the end of the day, it will indeed come down to allocation about how high this will go. I am afraid of giving a prediction and sounding stupid in 3 days or to give a hope that might be false. The Warner opening record is the only thing I say it feels locked (R$45M+). If we at least had a way to compare to NWH's pre sales life would be easier.

 

I'll say this: not even with NWH I saw midnight pre-releases selling out in my city like Barbie is doing.

[Flamengo81]

25 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Amidst all the craziness, aren't these comps bound to hit a wall unless theaters really expand this? 53% sold at t-3 is ridiculous, doesn't leave a ton of space for walkups to be big at this rate even with how crazy ps are

The thing is that I don't have the numbers of showings of movies like NWH to compare with. But 67 showings is already much higher than what Fast X had (52) with one less theater available (that would give an additional 10~ screens) and I don't know how much higher it could possibly be, it's already reaching the showings cap IMO. It would be interesting to see numbers in a city like São Paulo which has a gigarnomous number of theaters to see if that is a big issue.

[JustLurking]

14 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

The thing is that I don't have the numbers of showings of movies like NWH to compare with. But 67 showings is already much higher than what Fast X had (52) with one less theater available (that would give an additional 10~ screens) and I don't know how much higher it could possibly be, it's already reaching the showings cap IMO. It would be interesting to see numbers in a city like São Paulo which has a gigarnomous number of theaters to see if that is a big issue.

Yeah I mean, not trying to say it won't still crush all these films, just that those comps are bound to converge down big time without more shows because it looks like Barbie's just going to basically sellout and spillover onto the next days instead

[Flamengo81]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Yeah I mean, not trying to say it won't still crush all these films, just that those comps are bound to converge down big time without more shows because it looks like Barbie's just going to basically sellout and spillover onto the next days instead

We are on the same page, but even if the opening day get's limited by the allocation the spillover over the weekend will be insane.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Allocation worries aside, cannot say theaters aren't reacting. The amount of showings of Barbie in Natal for the release day went up from 31 to 61. One advantage above NWH, Endgame and Avatar is that Barbie is a lot shorter, easier to allocate.

 

Unrelated, but I have a coupon for R$10 off for Oppenheimer on ingresso.com that I ain't gonna use it. It is valid until tomorrow, if any brazilian over here wants it, go nuts

 

OPHR55HT6WUJ6DK

Edited July 18, 2023 by ThatWaluigiDude

[Gavin Feng]

What is the rating for Oppenheimer there? I saw both 10 & 16

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Barbie will be released in >2k screens tomorrow while Oppenheimer will release in >500 screens. The number of screens of Barbie will be similar to Guardians of the Galaxy 3.

[Flamengo81]

Updates later today. But a sneak peak: the showings went above 90 lol

[Flamengo81]

Unfortunately the two Cinepolis theaters are offline. Will try to access them later today, but we might not have T-01 numbers 😢

[ThatWaluigiDude]

On 7/17/2023 at 4:12 PM, ThatWaluigiDude said:

OPPENHEIMER, NATAL T-1

T-3 Cinemark: Not started

T-3 Cinepolis: 3 showings, 658 seats, 67 sold (10.2%)

T-3 Moviecom: 2 showings, 208 seats, 35 sold (16.8%)

T-3 Cineflix: 2 showings, 265 seat, 17 sold (6.4%)

T-3 Total: 7 showings, 1131 seats, 119 sold (10.5%)

OPPENHEIMER, NATAL T-1

T-1 Cinemark: 4 showings, 1056 seats, 146 sold (13.83%)

T-1 Cinepolis: 3 showings, 337 seats, 180 sold (53.4%)

T-1 Moviecom: 2 showings, 208 seats, 79 sold (38%)

T-1 Cineflix: 3 showings, 265 seat, 72 sold (27.17%)

T-1 Total: 12 showings, 1883 seats, 477 sold (25.33%)

 

Comps:

Indy (174%)

GotG 3 (92.4%)

 

Before the big fish, the smaller fish. Surprisingly enough, the first day is much better than Indy and almost as good as Guardians. However if you ask me, this movie will suffer from allocation more than Barbie and that is the thing that might cut the opening potential, they were not very kind to the amount of screenings and the rollout is much smaller than Indy (That might be the reason of why it sold well in advance actually).

 

My guess? Dunkirk opened with R$5.1M, my bet would be R$6M-8M, but that assuming it have the basic for the other regions. I hope they report the thursday for a better picture.

Edited July 20, 2023 by ThatWaluigiDude

[Flamengo81]

On 7/17/2023 at 9:42 PM, Flamengo81 said:

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-03

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
67	15079	8070	53.52%

 

SEATS SOLD IN THE PAST 2 DAYS

3817

 

COMPS T-03

The Little Mermaid – 24.234x

Into The Spiderverse – 21.293x (37.47M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 13.961x (43.46M)

Fast X – 14.65x (73.23M)

 

I mean... the numbers are the numbers. I don't even know what to say, what the numbers are suggesting is an opening for the ages. Are they "wrong" and this is actually an insane frontloaded movie? Don't know and won't even try to respond that question. 

 

Note 1: By the way, this is with one less Theater since Cinepolis Bela Vista closed this month.

Note 2: The Flash comp will return at T-01, I missed T-03 😕.

“Barbie” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-01

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
91	19088	10144	53.14%

 

SEATS SOLD IN THE PAST 2 DAYS

2074

 

COMPS T-01

The Little Mermaid – 11.258x

The Flash – 16.308x (29.19M)

Into The Spiderverse – 15.727x (27.68M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 10.123x (31.51M)

Fast X – 14.65x (51.97M)

 

Here are the insane final numbers. But this comes with a little caveat: the biggest theater basically reseted the showings and so the numbers are lower than what it should be with the previous showings. But it might be a bug (probably is?), so the numbers in reality could actually be a lot bigger. How much bigger? Well, if we use the numbers from these showings at T-03 the total tickets solds would be at 11.214, that is a pretty big difference and it would be even more at T-01. But I decided to use the numbers I am seeing right now and not conjectures, so these are the final results. I will TRY to track tomorrow before shows starts, but it's a tiny possibility. I will definitely take a look to see if the showings remains the same though, just out of curiosity.

 

Analyzing the numbers we have, the only thing I could say is that anything could happen. I could definitely see actual numbers being much lower than what comps suggests, but I would no be chocked with the comps turning out to be accurate either (except for Fast X), Barbie is simply a phenomenom here in Brazil and you can hear it being talked about everywhere, so no matter what the actuals turns out to be, this will 100% be a performance for the ages regardless.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Flamengo81

[Flamengo81]

“Oppenheimer” Greater Salvador Region tracking: T-01

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS	SEATS SOLD	PCT. SOLD
23	4481	1195	26.67%

 

TOTAL SEATS SOLD

1195

 

COMPS T-01

The Little Mermaid – 1.326x

The Flash – 1.921x (3.44M)

Into The Spiderverse – 1.853x (3.26M)

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3. – 1.192x (3.71M)

Fast X – 1.224x (6.12M)

 

Absolutely crazy numbers for Oppenheimer too!
The ATP is going to be much higher than everyone else too as this is getting more than half of it's shows at premium screens, the 3 IMAX sessions are absolutely packed. I took a look at the weekend sales and it's also very good. This is going to be an all-time great weekend over here for sure.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

On 7/13/2023 at 10:56 AM, ThatWaluigiDude said:

BARBIE, NATAL T-7

 

T-7 Cinemark: 7 showings, 2129 seats, 1237sold (58.1%)

T-7 Cinepolis: 14 showings, 2386 seats, 862 sold (36.12%)

T-7 Moviecom: 4 showings, 700 seats, 209 sold (20.86%)

T-7 Cineflix: 6 showings, 2994 seat, 542 sold (18.1%)

T-7 Total: 31 showings, 8209 seats, 2807 sold (34.19%)

BARBIE, NATAL T-1

 

T-1 Cinemark: 18 showings, 5212 seats, 2708 sold (51.96%)

T-1 Cinepolis: 22 showings, 3308 seats, <862 sold (?%)

T-1 Moviecom: 11 showings, 1589 seats, 1235 sold (77.7%)

T-1 Cineflix: 12 showings, 5015 seat, 2290 sold (45.66%)

T-1 Total: 63 showings, 15121 seats, 7095 sold (?%)

 

COMPS:

Fast X (578.24%)

GotG 3 (1375%)

Spiderverse (2130%)

 

I cannot BELIEVE I spend one hour and half doing this only to glitch out after I counted only 6 sections of Cinepolis. Feel like shooting myself lol. But yeah, even missing all those showtimes, it massively oversold every other movie I've tracked by a not even funny margin. Sky is the limit now guys.

 

[Flamengo81]

So guys... I actually managed to track it 😁

 

The theater that reseted the showings and seemed to be bugged came back to normal today, so the T-0 numbers are the real accurate numbers.

Unfortunately, I don't have the comps right now since I am not at home, but I will post the complete final numbers and comps tonight. 

But to the numbers: Barbie sold 13.502 tickets at 103 showings. I don't see any scenario where this is not a top-3 opening of all time and honestly: I am not saying it will happen, but I won't be shocked if this beats Endgame. This is going to be a mind-blowing weekend for sure!