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Purple Minion

Mexico Box Office | Furiosa #1 with $2.4M, lower than Fury Road; Apes #2, $15.5M total; Garfield reaches $17.4M.

By Purple Minion, in International Box Office

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Carlangonz Box Office Gold

Carlangonz

Posted
Posted
On 11/6/2023 at 12:36 PM, Carlangonz said:

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-3 DAYS

 

Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-6 

The Marvels
 
717
 
25462
 
2.82%
 
+40,86%
 


Comps at the same point before release

 

Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth Comp in % Comp in lc
Little Mermaid 1949 17685 11.02% +39,91% 36.79% $8.68M
Spiderverse 9797 19284 50.8% +12.71% 7.32% $3.22M
Barbie 15226 23117 65.86% +21,26% 4.71% $4.99M
Indy 5 345 11086 3.11%   207.83% $12.89M

THE MARVELS (OPENING DAY INCL MIDNIGHTS) - T-7 HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHTS / T-18 HOURS BEFORE MATINEES

 

Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-3

The Marvels
 
1344
 
30227
 
4.45%
 
+87.45%
 

 

Comps at the same point before release

Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-3 Comp in % Comp in lc
Little Mermaid 3618 30163 11.99% +85,63% 37,15 $8.77M
Spiderverse 13954 33397 41.75% +42,43% 9,63 $4.24M
Barbie 23370 45283 51.61% +53,49% 5,75 $6.1M
Indy 5 601 14757 4.07% +74,2% 223,63 $13.87M

 

This is it. Depending how good or bad this goes this could be the lowest grossing opening weekend for a Marvel title since 2012's Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance and lowest ever for an MCU title.

Important to notice that on the last couple of days midnight shows at several locations have vanished after poor sales including 6 from this sample. Breakdown up next for sold, total and occupancy:
 

Midnights 187 4013 4.66%
Rest of day 1157 26214 4.41%


Midnights barely represent around 3% of Guardians 3's previews and 4% of those for The Flash so won't make much of a dent and barely add around $0.6M lc.

Fourtunately pace remains great and has able to finish just above Little Mermaid and well over Dial of Destiny preventing from further collapse. 

Growth has been the best from Metro Area where needed it the most and where pace had stalled after first few days of sales which along comps make it seem like walk-ins for opening day shall be good just as they were for Little Mermaid but need a good reception like that one so it can hold good internal multi.

What I'm afraid of is that just like Blue Beetle good reviews and reception won't completely save it entirely but could boost just a bit.

Opening weekend: $35M-$45M ($2M-$2.6M USD)

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Carlangonz Box Office Gold

Carlangonz

Posted
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On 11/6/2023 at 12:42 PM, Carlangonz said:

BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-9 DAYS

Title Sold Total Available Occupancy

Hunger Games
 
292
 
2324
 
12.56%
 

BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-7 DAYS

 

Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-9

 

Hunger Games

 

490 3414 14.35% +67.81%

 

Comps at the same point before release
 

Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-9 Comp in % Comp in lc
Transformers 857 5407 15.85%   57.18% $5.26M
MI7 965 6187 15.6% +20.93 50.78% $3.05M

 

It just had its best days so really amazing for it. MI7 comp is skewing due to the early access data but removing it is well ahead by 50% so I'll end up removing it or adjusting it. 

Don't have more comps for this one so will be tough to go with a prediction but those $5M+ from the Rise of Beasts comp bode well.

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Carlangonz Box Office Gold

Carlangonz

Posted
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On 11/8/2023 at 5:35 PM, Carlangonz said:

BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-7 DAYS

 

Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-9

 

Hunger Games

 

490 3414 14.35% +67.81%

 

Comps at the same point before release
 

Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-9 Comp in % Comp in lc
Transformers 857 5407 15.85%   57.18% $5.26M
MI7 965 6187 15.6% +20.93 50.78% $3.05M

BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-5 DAYS

 

Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-7

 

Hunger Games

 

675 3495 19.31% +37.76%

 

Comps at the same point before release
 

Title Seats sold Seats available Occupancy Growth from T-7 Comp in % Comp in lc
MI7 563 5274 10.68% +73.77% 19,89% $6.5M

 

I lost the Transformers comp because didn't take data for T-5 but will come back for T-2. I also adjusted MI7 comp to exclude early access in both seats and $.

Both occupancy and pace still marching well towards $5M+. We just have to wait and see how front-loaded may be.

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Carlangonz Box Office Gold

Carlangonz

Posted
Posted
On 11/8/2023 at 5:30 PM, Carlangonz said:

Opening weekend: $35M-$45M ($2M-$2.6M USD)

As wom is a mystery on first days, first day went below $10M with $9M so walk-ins equally as meh as DOM.

 

A range right between Quantumania and Guardians points towards the lower end but I'm leaning towards high 30s. 

 

Still would below Blue Beetle and a drop o/u 85% from Captain Marvel.

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Purple Minion Blockbuster

Purple Minion

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Posted (edited)

As per Disney numbers, Marvel's OW is 53M lc. Higher than Hulk and Shang-Chi and about the same as Iron Man in lc, but audience-wise it's the lowest MCU opening. It is also one of the rare occasions in which Mexico is not in the Top 5 of a MCU OS OW. If it behaves like a normal super-hero movie, it will end below Hulk's 125.8M lc total.

 

Captain Marvel had a 246.8M OW, that'd be a 78% decrease. Opening numbers of other MCU's sequels as comparison:

 

157.3 GOTG 2

112.5 Captain America 2

108.6 Ant-Man 2

108.0 Thor 2

88.5 Iron Man 2

 

 

Edited by Purple Minion
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Carlangonz Box Office Gold

Carlangonz

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6 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

Hearing 52.7M lc OW for Marvels...

Way better Sat-Sun than expected. More surprising after that poor Fri increase so behaved more like a DC rather than an MCU title.

1. The Marvels - $52.6M

2. Five Nights at Freddy's - $26.9M/$351.8M (-64.79%)
3. Radical - $19.8M/$164.7M (-33%)
4. Trolls: World Tour - $14M/$84.7M (-49.82%)
5. All Fun and Games - $4.8M 
6. Confesiones - $4.8M/$15.6M (-28.36%)
7. Señora Influencer - $4.1M/$16.2M (-47.44%)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon - $3.7M/$43.8M (-43.94%)
9. The Jester - $2.5M/$15.7M (-70.24%)
10. Mavka - $2.5M 

There's a holiday coming next Monday so should benefit everything as Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is the only wide release. The Marvels avoided to go lower than Blue Beetle and it would requiere the worst legs of any CBM this year to not surpass Incredible Hulk but still a disaster for Marvel as it would go lower than any other Marvel release (sans New Mutants) of the last 10 years. 

At the end of its run, in admissions is very likely to end up below legacy Marvel releases such as all Fantastic Four releases, both Hulk movies, all X-Men titles excluding New Mutants, first Ghost Rider and maybe even Daredevil. Is indeed Marvel's Blue Bettle.

Best holds are coming from local releases including Radical which is ensuring to become the highest sleeper hit of the year surpassing Sound of Freedom. It is now to a 4x multi and still going on.

Killers of the Flower Moon also now surpassed a 3x multi despite its limited release and extensive runtime. Five Nights at Freddy's plummeted but is now Blumhouse biggest hit ever and looking closer of Nun II as highest grossing horror movie of the year.

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Purple Minion Blockbuster

Purple Minion

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Yikes, I hadn't even considered the non-Disney Marvel movies. It did open lower than all 3 Fantastic 4 and X-Men: First Class.

 

Movie OW lc OW Aud Total lc Total aud
Fantastic 4 (2015) $68,094,122  1,351,924 $171,298,179 3,817,982
Fantastic 4 (2005) $62,051,788  1,645,556 $236,955,367 7,102,674
Fantastic 4 and Silver Surfer $60,957,544  1,487,714 $179,031,175 4,810,795
X Men: First Class $55,634,628  1,179,171 $157,316,646 3,512,778
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Purple Minion Blockbuster

Purple Minion

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The Hunger Game sequels have been very consistent and a big jump from the first one. Ballad should fall somewhere in the middle.

 

Movie OW lc OW Aud Total lc Total aud
Hunger Games 3.1 $151,456,992     2,876,914 $336,355,929 7,085,531
Hunger Games 3.2 $127,313,242     2,489,832 $323,901,992 6,834,668
Hunger Games 2 $119,988,883     2,401,254 $327,422,691 7,224,131
Hunger Games $45,567,622        917,080 $180,022,102 3,925,025
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