mexico Mexico Box Office | Inside Out 2 close to $72M; will Day One create much noise?

[Purple Minion]

Transformers 6 OW: $7.3M, about 125M lc, still highest opening of the franchise in pesos but should be much lower in audience. It's all about the legs from now.

 

Other totals: Spider-Verse 2 $19.9M (OK hold), Little Mermaid $18.0M (legs are thinning), Fast X $35.7M (big drop). So many new releases is cannibalising the available screens.

[Carlangonz]

Crazy that probably there won't be a single release that touches half the highest grosser of the year. Last time it happened was 2010 when Alice in Wonderland finished just $3M shy of Toy Story 3's half run.

 

Pending on The Flash, The Marvels and Aquaman, gap this year between 1-2 is going to be even bigger than 2010's.

[Purple Minion]

$35.8M total for GOTG3. Will not pass Captain Marvel in lc. $1.5M total for The Bogeyman.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Ohana]

4 hours ago, Carlangonz said:

Crazy that probably there won't be a single release that touches half the highest grosser of the year. Last time it happened was 2010 when Alice in Wonderland finished just $3M shy of Toy Story 3's half run.

 

Pending on The Flash, The Marvels and Aquaman, gap this year between 1-2 is going to be even bigger than 2010's.

Any projections about The Flash in Mexico?

[Carlangonz]

6 hours ago, Ohana said:

Any projections about The Flash in Mexico?

I couldn't update on Friday but until Wednesday it was trending to open on par with Spiderverse.

 

We'll see if it has improved until Monday but previews will be deflated due to lack of premium formats so the most important thing for it is the IM. I'm expecting a stronger IM than both Guardians (x10) and Fast X (x8) but occupancy during previews may say something about it as well. 

[Carlangonz]

13 hours ago, Carlangonz said:

We'll see if it has improved until Monday

Yikes

[Purple Minion]

 

[Carlangonz]

In the meantime

 

1. Rise of Beasts - $133.6M - $9.2M from previews. A bit above comps

2. Across the Spiderverse - $90.2M / $346.9M

3. The Little Mermaid - $38M / $316.3M

4. Fast X - $25.7M / $632.6M

5. Sadako - $7.1M

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 - $6.9M / $633.9M 

7. The Boogeyman - $1.8M / $26.6M

8. Book Club: The Next Chapter - $1.8M / $10.2M

9. One True Loves - $1.7M

10. Super Mario Bros - $1M / $1,539.5M

 

Quite ugly for Spiderverse losing ground to Transformers; missing PLFs affected but also certainly is showing to be front loaded. 

 

Mermaid seems to remain on track to finish in between $370M-$380M. 

 

Fast X losing steam as well and looks like are definitely is missing $700M and instead finishing around $670M 

[Shanks]

lmao. We all posted at same time.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Shanks

[Carlangonz]

20 minutes ago, Carlangonz said:

Yikes

I want to do a deep dive because Metro Area is disastrous compared to the City itself and if it's a reflex of 2nd and 3rd cities then it needs even a better reception than Guardians.

 

Fast X comp at the same point now at $15.8M. Guardians at T-6 hours is at $11.2M with only two days to improve. 

[Carlangonz]

Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling coming on July 6th to Mexico City and hold a fan-event for Barbie.

 

So it begins

[Purple Minion]

That doll is our only hope for 800M+ lc!

[Carlangonz]

On 6/7/2023 at 1:45 PM, Carlangonz said:

THE FLASH PREVIEWS - T-7 DAYS

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9
The Flash	74	1924	12276	15.67%	19.35%

 

+3 shows/+594 seats across 2 locations.

 

From all locations:

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9	% of comp	Comp in lc
Fast X (T-7)	96	3970	17153	23.14%	30.38%	48.46%	$17.93M

 

From two locations only:

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9	% of comp	Comp in lc
Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (T-7)	17	1259	3314	37.99%	n/a	61%	$14.46M
The Flash (T-7)	19	768	2854	26.91%	15.14%

THE FLASH PREVIEWS - T-2 DAYS

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9
The Flash	75	2783	12348	22.54%	44.45%

 

+1 show / +72 seats in one location

 

From all locations at the same point before release

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9	% of comp	Comp in lc
Fast X	96	6500	17153	37.89%	63.72%	42.82%	$15.84M
Rise of the Beasts	38	1293	5407	23.91%	50.87%	215.23%	$19.8M

 

I won't do the Guardians comp at the same point because I didn't update on T-2 but rather T-1 so it'll take another day. However Guardians 3 (T-6 Hours) comp is indeed $11.28M.

 

Things actually got worst after the last update and only one out of eight locations actually improved against Fast X but it was by a mere 0.04% and as you can see there's anything where Flash shows some strenght against comps and indicates that may be somewhat of a breakout. Right now all it can expect is reception on par (hopefully) better than Guardians and pull x10 or more on its IM.

 

Occupancy is somewhat concerning because you can blame some backlog on sales by not getting premium formats on preview shows; however there are theatres in Metro Area (the ones overindexing but ultimately closer in actuals for Fast X) that doesn't have premium formats so any rush should be translating to sales for previews but these theatres are actually underindexing and sigaling sub-$10M previews in both Guardians and Fast X comps.

 

We'll see how pace goes across the final days; Fast X grew 56% and ROTB grew 67% but it's looking grim in all. If it actually follows FX with an adjusted ATP then is opening just below/on par with Spiderverse but if it goes even lower then I think numbers won't be far off from something like $170M.

[Carlangonz]

No advance tickets for either Ruby Gillman or The Dial of Destiny. Mid-summer is looking really dry unless either Gillman or Elemental breakout; Death Reckoning and Insidious should be picking up some steam with $230M+ and $150M+ each. Oppenheimer hopefully performs on par with other Nolan's films and inflation takes it to $130M or so.

[Purple Minion]

All Time Movies, lc

 

25    635,247,000    The Batman (2022)

26    633,800,000    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 (2023)

27    632,600,000    Fast X (2023)
28    630,814,940    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)

 

Just to show how much ATP has increased, neither Groot nor La Familia are in the all time Top 50 ticket sales.

[Purple Minion]

1.8M OW tickets for Rise of the Beasts, on par with The Last Knight and below Moon and Extinction. Goal should be 5M... may benefit from a weak-ish Flash OW in the currently crowded market.

[Carlangonz]

On 6/7/2023 at 1:45 PM, Carlangonz said:

From two locations only:

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9	% of comp	Comp in lc
Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (T-7)	17	1259	3314	37.99%	n/a	61%	$14.46M
The Flash (T-7)	19	768	2854	26.91%	15.14%

Same two locations at T-1 Day 

 

Flash is up to 66% of the comp and $15.7M. 

1790 for Guardians v 1187 for Flash and better growth from T-7 with 42.1% and 54.5% respectively. Occupancy is the one trending quite below for Flash: 40.5% compared to 54.01% of Rocket and Co.

 

Seems like 1st tier markets are finally gaining some weight. We'll see tomorrow if lower tier markets are following suit or not.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

On 6/12/2023 at 1:14 PM, Purple Minion said:

That doll is our only hope for 800M+ lc!

Not saying it'll happen or numbers will be the same but it may open in the same set of conditions as Super Mario Bros: holidays, long-time beloved property, nostalgia among 20s-30s demo and even older and mostly: a potential scenario where every underperforming release just keeps strengthening it with some adult exceptions (MI:DR-JW4). Only exception being its potential as a 4Q title but even so can manage it.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Purple Minion]

DC Comics Movies

 

Movie	OW lc	OW aud	Total lc	Total aud
The Joker	$     264,963,334	4,333,465	$858,082,328	15,079,853
The Batman	$     245,770,000		$635,247,000	8,900,000
Batman vs. Superman	$     215,099,113	4,171,804	$630,814,940	13,261,158
Suicide Squad	$     194,509,296	3,412,790	$514,745,207	9,938,506
Justice League	$     184,324,944	3,331,474	$472,799,261	9,312,942
Wonder Woman	$     155,418,567	2,823,883	$420,056,396	8,429,701
Aquaman	$     134,886,765	2,341,979	$610,109,497	11,549,680
The Dark Knight Rises	$     130,497,507	2,719,399	$420,231,623	9,384,641
Shazam!	$     111,917,928	1,932,925	$298,652,650	5,640,667

 

 The Flash OW tracking around Justice League levels. Goal is to reach Wonder Woman's lc total; audience-wise, it gotta pass Shazam!

[Carlangonz]

On 6/12/2023 at 8:38 PM, Carlangonz said:

THE FLASH PREVIEWS - T-2 DAYS

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9
The Flash	75	2783	12348	22.54%	44.45%

 

+1 show / +72 seats in one location

 

From all locations at the same point before release

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9	% of comp	Comp in lc
Fast X	96	6500	17153	37.89%	63.72%	42.82%	$15.84M
Rise of the Beasts	38	1293	5407	23.91%	50.87%	215.23%	$19.8M

 

I won't do the Guardians comp at the same point because I didn't update on T-2 but rather T-1 so it'll take another day. However Guardians 3 (T-6 Hours) comp is indeed $11.28M

THE FLASH - T-6 HOURS

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-2
The Flash	75	4127	12348	33.42%	48.29%

 

No additional shows/seats

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-2	% of comp	Comp in lc	Adjusted
Fast X	94	10139	16907	59.97%	55.98%	40.70%	$15.06M	$13M
Transformers	38	2160	5407	39.65%	67.05%	191.06%	$17.58M	$16.3M
Guardians of the Galaxy 3	64	5845	12606	46.36%	na	70.61%	$16.73M	$14.3M

 

Extraofficial comps from two-locations alone:

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-1	% of comp	Comp in lc	Adjusted
The Flash	20	1485	2926	50.75%	25.10%
Guardians of the Galaxy 3	17	2204	3386	65.09%	23.12%	67.37%	$15.96M	$13.8M
The Way of Water	na	3477	4951	70.22%	na	42.70%	$12.59M	$10.1M
Wakanda Forever	na	3495	4762	73.39%	na	42.48%	$12.48M	$10.8M
Love & Thunder	na	4608	6986	65.96%	na	32.22%	$13.35M	$11.5M

 

Not too bad ending. It didn't had an spectacular jump but it could've been worse after past week. It's still kinda sad to see how it started at 70% from Fast X and then just continue to drop and never pick up. 

 

I'm also adjusting all comps due to the lack of premium formats and 3D shows which all of the other titles had.

 

That said its improvement over Guardians is great which may be the best comp and puts it o/u the $14.5M average of the three comps.

 

Internal multi should be better than any of the Guardians/Fast X comp due to addition of IMAX, 4DX and PLFs from Thursday onwards so somewhere around $150M on opening weekend including previews which is similar to Quantumania. 

 

ER is at its best since December 2015 so bodes well for o/u $8.5M

Edited June 14, 2023 by Carlangonz