Mexico Box Office | Garfield scratches great $8.4M 6-day OW; safe $2.5M start for The Fall Guy

[Carlangonz]

FEBRUARY 8-11 WEEKEND.

 

1. Anyone but You - $11.8M/$115.4M (-43.27%)
2. Poor Things - $9.8M/$69.5M (-40.61%)

3. Argylle - $8.8M/$43.3M (-60.89%)

4. Baghead - $8.4M 
5. Past Lives - $6.3M/$20.4M (-25.88%)

6. Freelance - $5.6M 

7. Turning Red - $5.2M

8. El Roomie - $5.2M/$74.8M (-48.51%)

9. May December - $4.7M

10. The Lost Kingdom - $4M/$389.8M (-44.45%)

Bigger drops than in previous weeks; perhaps a Super Bowl-related effect, deflation from Monday's holiday or maybe people feeling that they're running out of stuff to see.

Anyone but You becomes the first $100M grosser of the year with Valentine's Day around the corner and still feeling like it could crawl to $150M. Big hit for Sony.

Poor Things also sees its biggest drop yet but still going comfortable with Awards Season still going on and a potential bump after Oscars. Past Lives also enjoying a good WOM and is looking to do similarly as Priscilla; both of them grossing a nice amount for their distributors.

Red came higher than Soul but still a bit of a dissapointment for a wide re-issue. Aquaman is now leaving the Top 10 but it is doing so by surpassing The Nun II as Warner's second biggest hit of 2023.

 

[Carlangonz]

On 2/9/2024 at 9:51 PM, Carlangonz said:

QUICK PRE-SALES REPORT. OPENING DAY ONLY - NO PREVIEWS FOR NEITHER.
 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba (T-13) - 5,202/19,436 (26.76% occupancy)
Dune: Part II (T-20) - 374/15,419 (2.43% occupancy)

QUICK PRE-SALES REPORT. 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba (T-10) - 6,355/19,436 (32.71% occupancy) +22.16% from T-13
Dune: Part II (T-17) - 623/15,023 (4.15% occupancy) +66.58% from T-20

 

Great increase for both of them. Demon Slayer is now 3x of what The Boy and the Heron did until T-1 and 2x of Minus One but occupancy sandwiched between them but should eventually catch a 50%+. Day 1 shall be massive with a potential $20M+ but full opening weekend must be a careful forecast as it will be more front-loaded than any of the comps including the previous Demon Slayer entry which was held back by lack of screens and won't be the case this time.

Dune is having a good progress particularly on IMAX shows. Expecting a high ATP similarly to 007 titles that play big on big cities and formats but rather underperform on smaller ones.

[Purple Minion]

Top Movies 2023 lc

CANACINE numbers

 

05        497,030,288  Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

06        464,100,000  Wonka

07        395,900,097  Five Nights at Freddy's

08        390,300,000  Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

09        386,284,642  The Nun 2

[Carlangonz]

On 2/9/2024 at 9:51 PM, Carlangonz said:

QUICK PRE-SALES REPORT. OPENING DAY ONLY - NO PREVIEWS FOR NEITHER.

Madame Web (T-5) - 367/18,544 (1.98% occupancy) 

MADAME WEB (T-15 HOURS)

 

Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy
964	20996	4.59%

 

Comps at the same point before release

 

	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in $
The Marvels	1344	30227	4.45%	71.73%	$6.67M
Aquaman 2	2588	25882	10%	37.25%	$8.49M

 

I'm not seeing many group purchases but rather many for couples so Valentine's Day may give it the edge to have better walk-ins than The Marvels. Other comps like Little Mermaid or action-packed Dead Reckoning also indicate $8M which seems like a perfect opening day target.

Days after Valentine's Day will see a sizable drop and pending WOM we'll be seeing $35M-$45M across the 5-Day opening.

[Carlangonz]

On 2/12/2024 at 5:10 PM, Carlangonz said:

QUICK PRE-SALES REPORT. 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba (T-10) - 6,355/19,436 (32.71% occupancy) +22.16% from T-13

DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA - OPENING DAY (T-8 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Kimetsu No Yaiba	7270	19436	37.4%	+14.4%

 

I have no appropiate comps at this very same point but is still marching well for something that may well be front-loaded. Not going to use it as a comp but funny thing is that is running quite similar as Across the Spiderverse in net sales and even better in pace. Ultimately won't get the same capacity or walk-ins so won't get close to its opening day over $40M but $25M is boding well.

There's no way around to the fact that Dragon Ball has found a successor in here.
 

[Carlangonz]

On 2/12/2024 at 5:10 PM, Carlangonz said:

QUICK PRE-SALES REPORT. 

Dune: Part II (T-17) - 623/15,023 (4.15% occupancy) +66.58% from T-20

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-15 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Dune II	828	15023	5.51%	+32.91%

 

Like Kimetsu No Yaiba, I have no comps this far out for this one either but I'd say these ones are pretty good too and pointing towards a 3k+ final ticket count which is amazing.

I'm going cautious as growth in Metro Area theaters isn't as great as it is in Mexico City itself but a bit of a marketing push from Warner (kudos to what they've already done) and it could very well push $70M+ across the opening weekend. 

[Purple Minion]

$2.9M OW for Madame Web, about 50M lc; less than Morbius. Other totals: Wonka $27.3M, Anyone But You $7.5M.

Edited February 18 by Purple Minion

[Carlangonz]

FEBRUARY 14-18 WEEKEND.

 

1. Madame Web - $37.8M/$48.9M

2. One Love - $13.1M/$16.1M

3. Todas Menos Tú - $12.5M/$15M

4. Anyone but You - $8.2M/$129.2M (-30.51%)

5. Poor Things - $7.2M/$80.7M (-26.53%)

6. Baghead - $6.6M/$19.3M (-21.43%)

7. Past Lives - $4.8M/$28M (-23.81%)

8. Turning Red - $4.6M/$10.3M (-11.54%)

9. Argylle - $3.4M/$49.7M (-61.36%)

10. Wonka - $3.2M/$468.4M (-11.11%)

 

Decent start for Madame Web fueled by Valentine's Day where it surpassed The Marvels' opening day but underwhelming weekend overall. On par with the latest Marvel Studios' production and a bit above DC's Blue Beetle. As those two; it's under Morbius and even lower than underperformances like 2019's Dark Phoenix or 2015's F4ntastic.

One Love also delivers underwhelming results. Its distributor didn't bet on screens -just a third of those for Madame Web- and cracked a very similar Per-Screen Average. Musical biopics can enjoy very nice legs so it can be a medium-term bet if distributor doesn't drop the ball.

Anyone but You took a sizable drop after facing some competition but nevertheless nothing dramatic unlike local comedy Todas Menos Tú (it translates as Everyone but You, sigh) which -guess again- was the third underperformer of the week with even a higher screen count than One Love. The rom-com lead by Glen Powell and Sidney Sweeney is still clear from strong competition for another couple of weeks.

Audiences still catching up with Poor Things and Past Lives before Oscar ceremony with great holds particularly the latter which can be seen as a pleasant surprise. For Emma Stone, the former is now among her highest grossing features surpassing titles like Birdman and soon La La Land.

Wonka is still turning in the Top 10 and now it has surpassed San Andreas as Warner's 8th highest grossing title ever.

Edited February 20 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

On 2/15/2024 at 6:59 PM, Carlangonz said:

DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA - OPENING DAY (T-8 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Kimetsu No Yaiba	7270	19436	37.4%	+14.4%

DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA - OPENING DAY (T-6 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Kimetsu No Yaiba	8175	19436	42.06%	+12.45%

 

T-3 DAYS UPDATE

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Kimetsu No Yaiba	9465	19436	48.7%	+15.78%

 

Solid growth on its final weekend before opening. Both seats sold and occupancy shall finish above 10K and 50% respectively installing as the biggest pre-sales since Five Nights At Freddy's and probably until Godzilla & Kong or even Deadpool & Wolverine.

Holding reservations for how front-loaded this may be from OD but looking like a $50M+ opener across the 4-Day. The figure would be below To the Swordwith Village's first frame a year ago in lc but above in admissions as ticket pricing was higher that time.

[Carlangonz]

On 2/15/2024 at 7:08 PM, Carlangonz said:

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-15 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Dune II	828	15023	5.51%	+32.91%

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-13 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Dune II	1037	15023	6.9%	+25.24%

 

T-10 DAYS

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Dune II	1422	15023	9.47%	+37.13%

 

Impressive jump during the weekend especially as there's strong movement from Metro Area where it concerned me the most. Growth in premium formats -of course mostly IMAX but also PLFs- is significant as well and has no sign of slowing down. I'll keep an eye on traditional screens to see how much can gain there.

 

[Purple Minion]

8 hours ago, Carlangonz said:

One Love also delivers underwhelming results. Its distributor didn't bet on screens -just a third of those for Madame Web- and cracked a very similar Per-Screen Average. Musical biopics can enjoy very nice legs so it can be a medium-term bet if distributor doesn't drop the ball.

 

Missed opportunity, it even made $1.8M in Brazil.

[Carlangonz]

4 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

Missed opportunity, it even made $1.8M in Brazil.

Indeed. I was seeing better walk-ins on Wednesday than for any of the other two openers but sadly lack of shows crippled it; can't tell what happened over Paramount people's heads.

Way too early but speaking of biopics: Universal handling Michael Jackson's biopic and releasing it on 2025's Easter weekend is genius. Will be the Super Mario/Endgame of musical biopics.

[Carlangonz]

On 2/19/2024 at 8:38 PM, Carlangonz said:

DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA - OPENING DAY (T-6 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Kimetsu No Yaiba	8175	19436	42.06%	+12.45%

 

T-3 DAYS UPDATE

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Kimetsu No Yaiba	9465	19436	48.7%	+15.78%

DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA - TO THE HASHIRA TRAINING (T-15 HOURS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Kimetsu No Yaiba	10818	24246	44.62%	+14.29%

 

Decent finish but nothing particularly outstanding. Occupancy decreased because more shows were added across Metro Area during the final hours but some theaters still pulled an astonishing 80%+ occupancy rate.

Healthy sales across premium formats particularly IMAX and 4DX; easily a record for a Japanese release in both formats even above Dragon Ball installments. Unlike To the Swordsmith Village; there's a bigger spread among people wanting to see it dubbed and those looking for a subtitled version.

Sticking to a massive opening day ranging from $25M to $30M and overall opening weekend blowing past $60M+

[Carlangonz]

On 2/19/2024 at 8:44 PM, Carlangonz said:

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-13 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Dune II	1037	15023	6.9%	+25.24%

 

T-10 DAYS

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Dune II	1422	15023	9.47%	+37.13%

 

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-8 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Dune II	1668	15230	10.95%	+17.3%

 

Lower increase than what we were seeing so far but remains fairly normal as ATSV and Barbie went through a similar stage at the same point. 

I come back once again with a concern related to a single theater in the Metro Area where there was no single seat sold throught these two days which is the second time it happens during this run. Growth is steady in premium formats skewing heavily into IMAX and VIPs but traditional screens are stalling.

Embargo was already lifted and there are lot of raves out there so hopefully they'll translate to bigger interest from GA.

[Carlangonz]

On 2/22/2024 at 11:24 AM, Carlangonz said:

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-8 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Dune II	1668	15230	10.95%	+17.3%

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-6 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Dune II	2015	15230	13.23%	+20.8%

 

Comps at the same point before release:

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Barbie	12557	23117	54.32%	+20.09%	16.05%	$17.01M
Oppenheimer	2275	9716	23.41%	+28,39%*	88.57%	$13.37M
Spiderverse	8692	19284	45.07%	+15	23.18%	$10.2M

* Oppenheimer only had a week of advanced sales so growth is compared from T-7.
 

Healthy enough increase during the past two days. Premium shows at IMAX screens are quickly filling up with good seats (4th row upwards) almost gone.

Comps added! Not the best ones I could hope for but the most appropiate for release or presales cycles as all of them didn't hold previews nor early access and in Barbie's case it was a 3-week window too. 

Unlike Oppenheimer and Spiververse don't think this one is going to face accomodations issues as will get two times as many seats as the former and occupancy won't get as high as it was for the latter on non-IMAX/VIP screens. As for Barbie I'm just not confident this will get the same attention from GA and that won't reflect on advanced sales but rather walk-ins.

Oppy also had a very short 7-Day presales cycle which created a massive surge on the weekend that will likely take down that comp a bit by T-3 but at the same time I'm expecting better growth rate than Spiderverse at that point so I'm going to go for a $12M or so opening day and an o/u $65M opening weekend across the 4-Day.

[Issac Newton]

Sony reported $4.5M for Demon Slayer!

 

I.e. above Mex$75M+ Debut

[Purple Minion]

Anyone But You 5th highest grossing romantic comedy of all time in Mexico, $7.9M total. 

[Carlangonz]

FEBRUARY 22-25 WEEKEND. 

 

1. Demon Slayer: To the Hashira Training - $75.7M

2. Ferrari - $17.2M

3. Madame Web - $13.9M/$72M (-63.23%)

4. Todas Menos Tú - $7.8M/$28.4M (-37.6%)

5. One Love - $6.7M/$27M (-48.45%)

6. 57 Seconds - $5.6M

7. The Chosen - $4.7M

8. Poor Things - $4.5M/$87.8M (-37.5%)

9. Anyone but You - $4.4M/$136.2M (-46.34%)

10. Baghead - $3.8M/25.2M (-42.42%)

 

A year later, Demon Slayer blows expectations once again with the highest grossing opening of the year and the first one with 1M+ admissions. It'll likely remain with the title until either Kung Fu Panda 4 or Kong & Zilla dethrone it but nevertheless a wonderful result for the new entry of the saga: +20% from To The Swordsmith Village in lc and a whopping 40% increase in admissions!

All newcomers dissapoint during a weekend that was already depressed for holdovers; Ferrari's numbers would've been decent if not for the fact that it released on a sizable numbers of screens (1,200+) and its PSA is quite mediocre. At this point what matters are legs.

Poor Things still doing some good numbers as it already became the biggest hit for a C-Rated title since 2019's John Wick: Parabellum. Not bad for Disney. 

Local comedy Todas Menos Tú holds good enough to top One Love which couldn't spread a good WOM at the end and will fade away rather quickly.

Anyone But You couldn't recover after its weekend 4 drop but can't argue it wasn't a pleasant surprise having surpassed even local rom-coms that came out in recent years.

[Carlangonz]

On 2/24/2024 at 11:17 AM, Carlangonz said:

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-6 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Dune II	2015	15230	13.23%	+20.8%

 

Comps at the same point before release:

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Barbie	12557	23117	54.32%	+20.09%	16.05%	$17.01M
Oppenheimer	2275	9716	23.41%	+28,39%*	88.57%	$13.37M
Spiderverse	8692	19284	45.07%	+15	23.18%	$10.2M

* Oppenheimer only had a week of advanced sales so growth is compared from T-7.

DUNE: PART II - OPENING DAY (T-3 DAYS)

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Dune II	2556	15230	16.78%	+26.85%

 

Comps at the same point before release:

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Barbie	15226	23117	65.86%	+21.26	16.79%	$17.8M
Oppenheimer	3285	9716	33.81%	+44.4%	77.81%	$11.75M
Spiderverse	9797	19284	50.8%	+12.71%	26.09%	$11.48M

 

Wonderful pace throughout the weekend. At this rate is likely to increase over 50% from this point until Wednesday and seeing a final figure o/u 3.9k as expected to is good to see it didn't collapse or evolved as front-loaded as Spiderverse.

 

I remain skeptical on how big walk-ups can be and we won't know until we finally get actuals but seeing Oppy and Spidey comps coverging seems to be locking $10M+. I know numbers point to a couple of millions above but I'm considering complexes with PLFs and IMAX are doing a lot of heavylifting and looking at individual numbers by location things vary a lot for those without those formats.
 

Still thinking opening weekend o/u $65M but there's definitely a case for $70M+ and even a challenge for Demon Slayer numbers.

[HowSway]

3 hours ago, Carlangonz said:

FEBRUARY 22-25 WEEKEND. 

 

1. Demon Slayer: To the Hashira Training - $75.7M

2. Ferrari - $17.2M

3. Madame Web - $13.9M/$72M (-63.23%)

4. Todas Menos Tú - $7.8M/$28.4M (-37.6%)

5. One Love - $6.7M/$27M (-48.45%)

6. 57 Seconds - $5.6M

7. The Chosen - $4.7M

8. Poor Things - $4.5M/$87.8M (-37.5%)

9. Anyone but You - $4.4M/$136.2M (-46.34%)

10. Baghead - $3.8M/25.2M (-42.42%)

 

A year later, Demon Slayer blows expectations once again with the highest grossing opening of the year and the first one with 1M+ admissions. It'll likely remain with the title until either Kung Fu Panda 4 or Kong & Zilla dethrone it but nevertheless a wonderful result for the new entry of the saga: +20% from To The Swordsmith Village in lc and a whopping 40% increase in admissions!

All newcomers dissapoint during a weekend that was already depressed for holdovers; Ferrari's numbers would've been decent if not for the fact that it released on a sizable numbers of screens (1,200+) and its PSA is quite mediocre. At this point what matters are legs.

Poor Things still doing some good numbers as it already became the biggest hit for a C-Rated title since 2019's John Wick: Parabellum. Not bad for Disney. 

Local comedy Todas Menos Tú holds good enough to top One Love which couldn't spread a good WOM at the end and will fade away rather quickly.

Anyone But You couldn't recover after its weekend 4 drop but can't argue it wasn't a pleasant surprise having surpassed even local rom-coms that came out in recent years.

How is the anime scene in Mexico? I remember in the early 2000s Canal 5 used to show DBZ every weekday at prime time. You also had stuff like Inuyasha and Super Campeones that were big in their own right too.

 

Do they still show stuff over the air like at Canal 5 or has it moved to behind a paywall?