Carlangonz Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I won't have numbers until Wednesday but Avatar is still looking promising. As people have mentioned from reports in US/CAN, UK and Brazil, here it's also looking exceptionally well from 3D and premium shows (incl VIP) but quite slow on 2D shows. Probably Thu and Fri will see the same proportion as Wed night previews but by Saturday and Sunday we might be seeing 3D shows taking a bigger share. People prefer to wait to see it in 3D rather than see it in 2D on opening night so it should be backloaded as well. I stand with mid $20M previews and low to mid $200M for full opening weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Carlangonz said: I stand with mid $20M previews and low to mid $200M for full opening weekend. $200M would be very bad. That's less than 2.5M admits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: $200M would be very bad. That's less than 2.5M admits. I'm leaning towards higher range. December may have "disappointing" openings but except for Star Wars it's always about legs. Aquaman had a meh opening compared to other titles and rest of OS but then was a legs monster. Mid-200s/3M admits for this one would lock above Multiverse of Madness and pending on wom; $1B as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Cinépolis Perisur The Way of Water (T-0 Days): 2,131/3,051 (69.85%) Comps: Wakanda Forever (T-0 Days): 1,901/2,820 (67.41%) Multiverse of Madness (T-0 Days): 2,867/3,136 (91.42%) Love & Thunder (T-0 Days): 2,431/3,970 (61.23%) Cinépolis Forum Buenavista The Way of Water (T-0 Days): 1,346/1,900 (70.84%) Comps: Wakanda Forever (T-0 Days): 1,594/1,942 (82.08%) Multiverse of Madness (T-0 Days): 2,754/2,895 (95.13%) Love & Thunder (T-0 Days) : 2,177/3,016 (72.18%) Quite interesting trajectory for both venues. Advantage for Perisur has been more flexibility to work around a higher percentage of 3D shows incl IMAX and VIP (Buenavista doesn't have VIP rooms). I'd say Buenavista is a perfect mirror for 2nd and 3rd tier markets and Perisur for 1st tier markets so mid to high 20s for previews. Able to top both Wakanda Forever and Love and Thunder in previews. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Argentina previews are pretty good at 35K. So I wonder if MEX can be around 400K for $32-35M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Cinépolis Perisur The Way of Water (T-0 Days) - 4,153/10,544 (39.39%) Comps: Love and Thunder (T-0 Days) - 3,274/16,790 (19.5%) Multiverse of Madness (T-0 Days) - 5,316/9,973 (53.3%) The Batman (T-1 Day) - 2,127/6,557 (32.44%) No Way Home (T-1 Day) - 8,463/9,156 (92.43%) Cinépolis Buenavista The Way of Water (T-0 Days) - 2,604/8,408 (30.97%) Comps: Love and Thunder (T-0 Days) - 3,238/10,082 (32.12%) Multiverse of Madness (T-0 Days) - 6,308/9,609 (65.65%) The Batman (T-1 Day) - 2,298/6,616 (34.73%) Comps combine both previews and Thursday sales; where Avatar outstands everything else is how strong sales are for both days which is on line with Wakanda Forever and points towards increases on day-to-day over the weekend. So $12M-$15M for 4-Day + Previews depending on how reception moves across the weekend. World Cup impact will be minimal as it starts at 08:30 AM and 06:30 AM on border cities at Northwest. Early shows will suffer but by afternoon should be ok. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 So $1.5M previews as per Deadline. Via BO pro Real 3D reports 30% of shows in the market are on the format. So yeah on the higher end of $12M-$15M expectation. Third best bow of the year below Multiverse of Madness and Dominion and saving grace for $1B+ total. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) Not even late night shows on a Thursday night are stopping walk-ins it like they did in Korea. So can't say anything but LET'S GO! Edited December 16, 2022 by Carlangonz 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Carlangonz said: Not even late night shows on a Thursday night are stopping walk-ins it like they did in Korea. So can't say anything but LET'S GO! Help us MexicObi-Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 So ~$30M previews. I imagine would have hit $325M normally but now may be $265M due to World Cup final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 $300M+ OW. Let's wait and see how close Sunday can take it to Dominion. Jimbo will really deliver the first non-Marvel/Pixar $1B flick. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 $3.7M total up to Thursday for A2, including $1.5M previews. $15M OW can be reached unless there is an impact from the WC - matches are too early but you never know. ER is also stable. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) 30 42 ~60 ~110 ~65 (instead of 110) ~305 (~3.8M admits) 15M+ admits full run, hopefully. Edited December 17, 2022 by charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danhjpn Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 51 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: 30 42 ~60 ~110 ~65 (instead of 110) ~305 (~3.8M admits) 15M+ admits full run, hopefully. How does 15M+ admits here translate into USD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 31 minutes ago, Danhjpn said: How does 15M+ admits here translate into USD? $50-55M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danhjpn Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 50 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said: $50-55M Sad 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 10 hours ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said: $50-55M Closer to $60M thanks to surcharges for 3D. I've been thinking exactly the same; 4th all time in lc and second title above 15M admits in pandemic times. Saw it last night on a 3D show at a theatre with laser projection and my audience received it pretty well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 $5.9M total for A2. I was expecting at least $2.5M on Friday... is it slowing down, or will it explode Sat/Sun? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Eh FRI in Mexico and Brazil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 Korea exploded Fri to Sat so I have a hunch it'll be similar here. Let's say 50% increase, Sun flat, that gives $12.5M OW. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...