Purple Minion Posted June 11, 2023 Author Share Posted June 11, 2023 Transformers 6 OW: $7.3M, about 125M lc, still highest opening of the franchise in pesos but should be much lower in audience. It's all about the legs from now. Other totals: Spider-Verse 2 $19.9M (OK hold), Little Mermaid $18.0M (legs are thinning), Fast X $35.7M (big drop). So many new releases is cannibalising the available screens. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Crazy that probably there won't be a single release that touches half the highest grosser of the year. Last time it happened was 2010 when Alice in Wonderland finished just $3M shy of Toy Story 3's half run. Pending on The Flash, The Marvels and Aquaman, gap this year between 1-2 is going to be even bigger than 2010's. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted June 11, 2023 Author Share Posted June 11, 2023 (edited) $35.8M total for GOTG3. Will not pass Captain Marvel in lc. $1.5M total for The Bogeyman. Edited June 11, 2023 by Purple Minion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohana Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 4 hours ago, Carlangonz said: Crazy that probably there won't be a single release that touches half the highest grosser of the year. Last time it happened was 2010 when Alice in Wonderland finished just $3M shy of Toy Story 3's half run. Pending on The Flash, The Marvels and Aquaman, gap this year between 1-2 is going to be even bigger than 2010's. Any projections about The Flash in Mexico? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 6 hours ago, Ohana said: Any projections about The Flash in Mexico? I couldn't update on Friday but until Wednesday it was trending to open on par with Spiderverse. We'll see if it has improved until Monday but previews will be deflated due to lack of premium formats so the most important thing for it is the IM. I'm expecting a stronger IM than both Guardians (x10) and Fast X (x8) but occupancy during previews may say something about it as well. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 13 hours ago, Carlangonz said: We'll see if it has improved until Monday Yikes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted June 12, 2023 Author Share Posted June 12, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 In the meantime 1. Rise of Beasts - $133.6M - $9.2M from previews. A bit above comps 2. Across the Spiderverse - $90.2M / $346.9M 3. The Little Mermaid - $38M / $316.3M 4. Fast X - $25.7M / $632.6M 5. Sadako - $7.1M 6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 - $6.9M / $633.9M 7. The Boogeyman - $1.8M / $26.6M 8. Book Club: The Next Chapter - $1.8M / $10.2M 9. One True Loves - $1.7M 10. Super Mario Bros - $1M / $1,539.5M Quite ugly for Spiderverse losing ground to Transformers; missing PLFs affected but also certainly is showing to be front loaded. Mermaid seems to remain on track to finish in between $370M-$380M. Fast X losing steam as well and looks like are definitely is missing $700M and instead finishing around $670M 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 (edited) lmao. We all posted at same time. Edited June 12, 2023 by Shanks 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, Carlangonz said: Yikes I want to do a deep dive because Metro Area is disastrous compared to the City itself and if it's a reflex of 2nd and 3rd cities then it needs even a better reception than Guardians. Fast X comp at the same point now at $15.8M. Guardians at T-6 hours is at $11.2M with only two days to improve. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling coming on July 6th to Mexico City and hold a fan-event for Barbie. So it begins 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted June 12, 2023 Author Share Posted June 12, 2023 That doll is our only hope for 800M+ lc! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 On 6/7/2023 at 1:45 PM, Carlangonz said: THE FLASH PREVIEWS - T-7 DAYS Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-9 The Flash 74 1924 12276 15.67% 19.35% +3 shows/+594 seats across 2 locations. From all locations: Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-9 % of comp Comp in lc Fast X (T-7) 96 3970 17153 23.14% 30.38% 48.46% $17.93M From two locations only: Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-9 % of comp Comp in lc Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (T-7) 17 1259 3314 37.99% n/a 61% $14.46M The Flash (T-7) 19 768 2854 26.91% 15.14% THE FLASH PREVIEWS - T-2 DAYS Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-9 The Flash 75 2783 12348 22.54% 44.45% +1 show / +72 seats in one location From all locations at the same point before release Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-9 % of comp Comp in lc Fast X 96 6500 17153 37.89% 63.72% 42.82% $15.84M Rise of the Beasts 38 1293 5407 23.91% 50.87% 215.23% $19.8M I won't do the Guardians comp at the same point because I didn't update on T-2 but rather T-1 so it'll take another day. However Guardians 3 (T-6 Hours) comp is indeed $11.28M. Things actually got worst after the last update and only one out of eight locations actually improved against Fast X but it was by a mere 0.04% and as you can see there's anything where Flash shows some strenght against comps and indicates that may be somewhat of a breakout. Right now all it can expect is reception on par (hopefully) better than Guardians and pull x10 or more on its IM. Occupancy is somewhat concerning because you can blame some backlog on sales by not getting premium formats on preview shows; however there are theatres in Metro Area (the ones overindexing but ultimately closer in actuals for Fast X) that doesn't have premium formats so any rush should be translating to sales for previews but these theatres are actually underindexing and sigaling sub-$10M previews in both Guardians and Fast X comps. We'll see how pace goes across the final days; Fast X grew 56% and ROTB grew 67% but it's looking grim in all. If it actually follows FX with an adjusted ATP then is opening just below/on par with Spiderverse but if it goes even lower then I think numbers won't be far off from something like $170M. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 No advance tickets for either Ruby Gillman or The Dial of Destiny. Mid-summer is looking really dry unless either Gillman or Elemental breakout; Death Reckoning and Insidious should be picking up some steam with $230M+ and $150M+ each. Oppenheimer hopefully performs on par with other Nolan's films and inflation takes it to $130M or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted June 13, 2023 Author Share Posted June 13, 2023 All Time Movies, lc 25 635,247,000 The Batman (2022) 26 633,800,000 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 (2023) 27 632,600,000 Fast X (2023) 28 630,814,940 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) Just to show how much ATP has increased, neither Groot nor La Familia are in the all time Top 50 ticket sales. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted June 13, 2023 Author Share Posted June 13, 2023 1.8M OW tickets for Rise of the Beasts, on par with The Last Knight and below Moon and Extinction. Goal should be 5M... may benefit from a weak-ish Flash OW in the currently crowded market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 (edited) On 6/7/2023 at 1:45 PM, Carlangonz said: From two locations only: Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-9 % of comp Comp in lc Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (T-7) 17 1259 3314 37.99% n/a 61% $14.46M The Flash (T-7) 19 768 2854 26.91% 15.14% Same two locations at T-1 Day Flash is up to 66% of the comp and $15.7M. 1790 for Guardians v 1187 for Flash and better growth from T-7 with 42.1% and 54.5% respectively. Occupancy is the one trending quite below for Flash: 40.5% compared to 54.01% of Rocket and Co. Seems like 1st tier markets are finally gaining some weight. We'll see tomorrow if lower tier markets are following suit or not. Edited June 13, 2023 by Carlangonz 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 (edited) On 6/12/2023 at 1:14 PM, Purple Minion said: That doll is our only hope for 800M+ lc! Not saying it'll happen or numbers will be the same but it may open in the same set of conditions as Super Mario Bros: holidays, long-time beloved property, nostalgia among 20s-30s demo and even older and mostly: a potential scenario where every underperforming release just keeps strengthening it with some adult exceptions (MI:DR-JW4). Only exception being its potential as a 4Q title but even so can manage it. Edited June 14, 2023 by Carlangonz 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted June 14, 2023 Author Share Posted June 14, 2023 DC Comics Movies Movie OW lc OW aud Total lc Total aud The Joker $ 264,963,334 4,333,465 $858,082,328 15,079,853 The Batman $ 245,770,000 $635,247,000 8,900,000 Batman vs. Superman $ 215,099,113 4,171,804 $630,814,940 13,261,158 Suicide Squad $ 194,509,296 3,412,790 $514,745,207 9,938,506 Justice League $ 184,324,944 3,331,474 $472,799,261 9,312,942 Wonder Woman $ 155,418,567 2,823,883 $420,056,396 8,429,701 Aquaman $ 134,886,765 2,341,979 $610,109,497 11,549,680 The Dark Knight Rises $ 130,497,507 2,719,399 $420,231,623 9,384,641 Shazam! $ 111,917,928 1,932,925 $298,652,650 5,640,667 The Flash OW tracking around Justice League levels. Goal is to reach Wonder Woman's lc total; audience-wise, it gotta pass Shazam! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 (edited) On 6/12/2023 at 8:38 PM, Carlangonz said: THE FLASH PREVIEWS - T-2 DAYS Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-9 The Flash 75 2783 12348 22.54% 44.45% +1 show / +72 seats in one location From all locations at the same point before release Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-9 % of comp Comp in lc Fast X 96 6500 17153 37.89% 63.72% 42.82% $15.84M Rise of the Beasts 38 1293 5407 23.91% 50.87% 215.23% $19.8M I won't do the Guardians comp at the same point because I didn't update on T-2 but rather T-1 so it'll take another day. However Guardians 3 (T-6 Hours) comp is indeed $11.28M THE FLASH - T-6 HOURS Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-2 The Flash 75 4127 12348 33.42% 48.29% No additional shows/seats Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-2 % of comp Comp in lc Adjusted Fast X 94 10139 16907 59.97% 55.98% 40.70% $15.06M $13M Transformers 38 2160 5407 39.65% 67.05% 191.06% $17.58M $16.3M Guardians of the Galaxy 3 64 5845 12606 46.36% na 70.61% $16.73M $14.3M Extraofficial comps from two-locations alone: Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Occupancy Growth from T-1 % of comp Comp in lc Adjusted The Flash 20 1485 2926 50.75% 25.10% Guardians of the Galaxy 3 17 2204 3386 65.09% 23.12% 67.37% $15.96M $13.8M The Way of Water na 3477 4951 70.22% na 42.70% $12.59M $10.1M Wakanda Forever na 3495 4762 73.39% na 42.48% $12.48M $10.8M Love & Thunder na 4608 6986 65.96% na 32.22% $13.35M $11.5M Not too bad ending. It didn't had an spectacular jump but it could've been worse after past week. It's still kinda sad to see how it started at 70% from Fast X and then just continue to drop and never pick up. I'm also adjusting all comps due to the lack of premium formats and 3D shows which all of the other titles had. That said its improvement over Guardians is great which may be the best comp and puts it o/u the $14.5M average of the three comps. Internal multi should be better than any of the Guardians/Fast X comp due to addition of IMAX, 4DX and PLFs from Thursday onwards so somewhere around $150M on opening weekend including previews which is similar to Quantumania. ER is at its best since December 2015 so bodes well for o/u $8.5M Edited June 14, 2023 by Carlangonz 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...