mexico Mexico Box Office | Tough $5.5M opening for Joker 2

[Carlangonz]

On 9/27/2024 at 7:31 PM, Carlangonz said:

JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-7 DAYS

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9
Joker 2	2300	15354	14.98%	+30.9%

 

Comps at the same point before release:
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9	Comp in %	Comp in lc
The Flash	1924	12276	15.67%	+19.35%	119.54%	$19.13M
Fast X	3970	17153	23.14%	+30.38%	57.93%	$21.43M
FNAF	5144	7135	72.1%	+14.21%	44.71%	$11.18M
D&W	12604	20004	63.01%	+4.18%	18.25%	$10.04M

 

JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-5 DAYS
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-7
Joker 2	2860	15354	18.63%	+24.35%

Comps at the same point before release:

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-5	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X	5098	17153	29.72%	+28.41%	56.1%	$20.76M
FNAF	5611	7135	78.64%	+9.08%	50.97%	$12.74M
D&W	13193	20649	63.89%	+4.67%	21.68%	$11.92M

 

JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-2 DAYS

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-5
Joker 2	4024	15354	26.21%	+40.7%

Comps at the same point before release:

 

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-5	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X	6500	17153	37.89%	+27.5%	61.91%	$22.91M
FNAF	6189	7135	86.74%	+10.3%	65.02%	$16.26M
D&W	14504	20868	69.5%	+9.94%	27.74%	$15.26M
The Flash	2783	12348	22.54%	+44.65%*	144.59%	$23.13M

* Growth rate from T-7
 

Superb increase this final weekend; way bigger than any of the comps and close to what Flash grew from T-7 to T-2. Average is $19.4M which seems appropiate considering higher ATP than Fast X and Flash.

We'll see if it can mantain pace all through the end and may add some extra comps as well. Thursday sales seem down though; both Fredy and D&W comps point to $20M but will wait until T-1 to see how FX and Flash adjust because those comps are delayed by one day.

Pending on how front-loaded may be, seems like $180M opening weekend. Reception from spanish-speaking media is mixed so far, both from Spain and Latin America.

[Purple Minion]

No longer think Joker 2 will reach a billion, but hope it has a good run.

 

Updated totals by CANACINE, including Monday: Wild Robot 83M lc, 1.1M tickets; Beetlejuice 2 343M lc, 4.9M tickets; Substance 44.4M lc, 588K tickets; Speak No Evil 67.6M lc, 988K tickets.

[Carlangonz]

15 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

Updated totals by CANACINE, including Monday: Wild Robot 83M lc, 1.1M tickets; Beetlejuice 2 343M lc, 4.9M tickets; Substance 44.4M lc, 588K tickets; Speak No Evil 67.6M lc, 988K tickets.

Tuesday holiday will push them all to $100M, $350M, $50M and $70M respectively.

[Carlangonz]

On 9/30/2024 at 8:55 PM, Carlangonz said:

JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-2 DAYS

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-5
Joker 2	4024	15354	26.21%	+40.7%

Comps at the same point before release:

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-5	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X	6500	17153	37.89%	+27.5%	61.91%	$22.91M
FNAF	6189	7135	86.74%	+10.3%	65.02%	$16.26M
D&W	14504	20868	69.5%	+9.94%	27.74%	$15.26M
The Flash	2783	12348	22.54%	+44.65%*	144.59%	$23.13M

* Growth rate from T-7

JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX (WED NIGHT PREVIEWS) - T-0.5 HOURS

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-2
Joker 2	6640	15422	43.06%	+65.01%

 

Comps at the same point before release:

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-2	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X*	10139	16907	59.97%	+55.98%	65.49%	$24.23M
FNAF	7123	7411	96.11%	+15.09%	93.22%	$23.31M
D&W	17995	21120	85.2%	+24.07%	36.9%	$21.03M
The Flash	5353	12348	43.35%	+92.35%	24.04%	$19.85M
Godzilla & Kong	3069	4877	62.93%	N/A	216.36%	$33.54M
Guardians 3	6643	12606	52.7%	N/A	99.95%	$23.69M

* Info taken at T-6 hours

Strong end but still fell below The Flash and considering that Fast X number was 5.5 hours earlier than this one; surely pace finished behind that one too.

It grew good enough in the last week to ensure $20M in previews as most comps signal and even $25M may be on the table. Godzilla & Kong is an outlier given capacity constraints and had less fan-rush.

THURSDAY OPENING - T-15 HOURS

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy
Joker 2	2761	39369	7.01%

 

Comps at the same point before release:

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X	3639	46967	7.75%	75.87%	$28.22M
The Flash	2489	40141	6.2%	110.93%	$22.19M
FNAF	5512	30485	18.08%	50.09%	$15.03M
D&W	13232	54110	24.45%	20.87%	$13.36M

Sales are less impactful here and seem a bit tricky on which way the day will go; in the case of Deadpool & Wolverine there was the rating limitation which won't be the case for Folie a Deux because it got a B-15 rating (it's merely informative and anyone under 15 can still attend).

There's an elephant in the room for this one which is reception. First Joker was a WOM phenomenon from its very first day but so far reactions from local media have been mostly mixed to negative even from youtubers who usually go very easy on SH-related stuff. This reception has been more vocal and loud than that of titles like Quantumania, The Marvels, The Flash or Shazam 2.

While first public screenings are barely ending at the moment of this post; I don't think it will do better with audiences. Curiosity could lead to visibility over the weekend but if is really toxic there won't be much hope.

Opening day including previews shall do around $50M. We'll see how reception goes but 4-Day weekend looks like $140M-$150M.

Edited Thursday at 04:05 AM by Carlangonz

[charlie Jatinder]

I will take Flash comp. ~$40M OD. $135-145M weekend.

[Purple Minion]

Have a hunch Joker 2 will end in Quantumania territory

[Carlangonz]

Is looking tough with $34M to date but Thu slightly under Wed previews. Closer comp would be Quantumania which had an exact 50/50 split; that would take it to just over $115M.

 

With harsher audience reception looks like somewhere around $105M-$110M

 

Admissions-wise shall be barely over first Joker opening day.

Edited Friday at 07:25 PM by Carlangonz

[charlie Jatinder]

Wed was $15.5M on 906 locs last I checked. 95K admits. May be some locs missing. 

[Purple Minion]

$5.5M OW for Joker 2, about 106M lc. Tough audience.

 

The Wild Robot dropped just 22% for a $7.8M (150M-ish lc) total, #1 OS territory. Deadline reports it's higher than Bad Guys, Lego Movie, Angry Birds, and Encanto. Should overtake Migration and Trolls too.

 

Beetlejuice 2 reached $18.4M, becoming the #6 movie of the year.

 

Transformers One is now at a disappointing $3M.

 

Edited 47 minutes ago by Purple Minion

[Grand Cine]

7,8M$ for TWR. Around 145M lc . -22% drop , Deadline said. 18,4M$ for BeetleJuice 2 .

Edited 46 minutes ago by Grand Cine

[Grand Cine]

10 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

7,8M$ for TWR. Around 145M lc . -22% drop , Deadline said. 18,4M$ for BeetleJuice 2 .

I think about 300M lc total for TWR.

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:

$5.5M OW for Joker 2, about 106M lc. Tough audience.

WOM is definitely killing it; will end up grossing less than first one's opening weekend which still was a pure FSS.

 

8 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I think about 300M lc total for TWR.

That drop is too good considering the screen decrease but should gain some back on weekdays and has no direct competition for the whole month so does seem like it. Would finish not far off from Elemental.