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ChipDerby

KamehameDerby | Week 34

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1 glassfairy 95.816% 99.602% 95.396% 3.955% 13 10
2 IdahoJacket 94.087% 77.689% 95.909% 2.226% 12 10
3 TalismanRing 94.008% 79.681% 95.600% 2.146% 11 10
4 M37 93.714% 91.235% 93.989% 1.852% 10 10
5 Omni 93.174% 98.406% 92.593% 1.313% 9 10
6 Legion By Night 92.168% 75.697% 93.998% 0.306% 8 10
7 zubrolet 91.093% 49.801% 95.681% -0.769% 7 10
8 8wombi7 90.576% 73.705% 92.450% -1.286% 6 10
9 Sandy 90.442% 71.713% 92.523% -1.420% 5 10
10 In XXR We Trust 90.330% 67.729% 92.841% -1.532% 4 10
11 Grebacio 90.100% 67.331% 92.630% -1.761% 3 10
12 datpepper 90.057% 79.681% 91.210% -1.804% 2 10
13 katnisscinnaplex 88.636% 22.709% 95.961% -3.226% 1 10
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Wow, @glassfairy really separated from the pack in a high scoring week: 4 >98.5% and 8>95.3%

 

Looking like this week should again be pretty high scoring, so will come down to precision ... and avoiding those landmines/poor scores that drag down the average ::glares at Bodies::

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Have a feeling I’m playing the optimist again this week, with the top 10 over $60M, but those are my numbers. Confidence level:

Nervous Schitts Creek GIF by CBC

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1 hour ago, In XXR We Trust said:

Surprised at some of the higher Bullet Train numbers (i.e over $7.5M). Coming off a 55% drop last weekend and losing most of its PLF I was tinkering with under $7M but hedged my bet at $7.2M.

Really solid Wednesday number, would have penciled in ~30% drop if not for PLF loss, and still believe it’s more casual/GA friendly and so drawing a smaller share of gross from those screens than say Nope (plus already lost some last week), so adjusted down by 10% rather than 15%, got me to -40% or around $8M

 

FOLLOW-UP: Bullet Train Thursday estimate down 18% for Thursday (vs 26% for Nope when it lost PLF), and 42.6% week over week. Add in continuing effect of business being pushed to weekends, and that -40%/$8M looks plausible

Edited by M37
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5 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

Next wknd: 

Invitation

DBS

Train

Beast

3000 Years

TGM

Pets

Thor

Minions  

 

Nope v Crawdads a legit fight for 10th.

Might be at least worth considering keeping both Nope & Crawdads and dropping DBS, due to the unreliability of foreign distributors in reporting grosses after the opening weekend. Jujutsu didn’t report at all that first Mon-Thur, and second weekend report was technically only an estimate, never final 

 

Otherwise, adios Crawdads

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8 hours ago, M37 said:

Might be at least worth considering keeping both Nope & Crawdads and dropping DBS, due to the unreliability of foreign distributors in reporting grosses after the opening weekend. Jujutsu didn’t report at all that first Mon-Thur, and second weekend report was technically only an estimate, never final 

 

Otherwise, adios Crawdads

JJK wknd 2: 4,584,602

wknd3: 1,987,499

wknd4: 848,824

 

Not always as easy to find on the-numbers/mojo, but they do get reported by Tues or so as long as it’s in the top 10. I think it’ll last at least 3 weeks, maybe 4.  
 

Personally I give a slight edge to crawdads over nope but feels pretty coinflippy so I don’t mind either way.

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