ChipDerby Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 1 glassfairy 95.816% 99.602% 95.396% 3.955% 13 10 2 IdahoJacket 94.087% 77.689% 95.909% 2.226% 12 10 3 TalismanRing 94.008% 79.681% 95.600% 2.146% 11 10 4 M37 93.714% 91.235% 93.989% 1.852% 10 10 5 Omni 93.174% 98.406% 92.593% 1.313% 9 10 6 Legion By Night 92.168% 75.697% 93.998% 0.306% 8 10 7 zubrolet 91.093% 49.801% 95.681% -0.769% 7 10 8 8wombi7 90.576% 73.705% 92.450% -1.286% 6 10 9 Sandy 90.442% 71.713% 92.523% -1.420% 5 10 10 In XXR We Trust 90.330% 67.729% 92.841% -1.532% 4 10 11 Grebacio 90.100% 67.331% 92.630% -1.761% 3 10 12 datpepper 90.057% 79.681% 91.210% -1.804% 2 10 13 katnisscinnaplex 88.636% 22.709% 95.961% -3.226% 1 10 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Places 8-12 were so close Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Wow, @glassfairy really separated from the pack in a high scoring week: 4 >98.5% and 8>95.3% Looking like this week should again be pretty high scoring, so will come down to precision ... and avoiding those landmines/poor scores that drag down the average ::glares at Bodies:: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 that's why I avoid predicting altogether Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, ChipDerby said: that's why I avoid predicting altogether 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 Have a feeling I’m playing the optimist again this week, with the top 10 over $60M, but those are my numbers. Confidence level: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 Surprised at some of the higher Bullet Train numbers (i.e over $7.5M). Coming off a 55% drop last weekend and losing most of its PLF I was tinkering with under $7M but hedged my bet at $7.2M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, In XXR We Trust said: Surprised at some of the higher Bullet Train numbers (i.e over $7.5M). Coming off a 55% drop last weekend and losing most of its PLF I was tinkering with under $7M but hedged my bet at $7.2M. Really solid Wednesday number, would have penciled in ~30% drop if not for PLF loss, and still believe it’s more casual/GA friendly and so drawing a smaller share of gross from those screens than say Nope (plus already lost some last week), so adjusted down by 10% rather than 15%, got me to -40% or around $8M FOLLOW-UP: Bullet Train Thursday estimate down 18% for Thursday (vs 26% for Nope when it lost PLF), and 42.6% week over week. Add in continuing effect of business being pushed to weekends, and that -40%/$8M looks plausible Edited August 19, 2022 by M37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Next wknd: Invitation DBS Train Beast 3000 Years TGM Pets Thor Minions Nope v Crawdads a legit fight for 10th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 5 hours ago, Legion By Night said: Next wknd: Invitation DBS Train Beast 3000 Years TGM Pets Thor Minions Nope v Crawdads a legit fight for 10th. Might be at least worth considering keeping both Nope & Crawdads and dropping DBS, due to the unreliability of foreign distributors in reporting grosses after the opening weekend. Jujutsu didn’t report at all that first Mon-Thur, and second weekend report was technically only an estimate, never final Otherwise, adios Crawdads 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandro Mazzola Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 I have Crawdads over Nope. The Invitation 6.6m Beast 5.4m Top Gun 5m Bullet Train 4.9m DC Pets 4.9m Dragon Ball 4.6m Thor4 3m 3000 years 2,9m Minions 2.6m Crawdads 2.6m Nope 2.3m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted August 22, 2022 Author Share Posted August 22, 2022 I will be keeping DBZ in there, as I see the last one (Broly) reported numbers for the weekend after. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 8 hours ago, M37 said: Might be at least worth considering keeping both Nope & Crawdads and dropping DBS, due to the unreliability of foreign distributors in reporting grosses after the opening weekend. Jujutsu didn’t report at all that first Mon-Thur, and second weekend report was technically only an estimate, never final Otherwise, adios Crawdads JJK wknd 2: 4,584,602 wknd3: 1,987,499 wknd4: 848,824 Not always as easy to find on the-numbers/mojo, but they do get reported by Tues or so as long as it’s in the top 10. I think it’ll last at least 3 weeks, maybe 4. Personally I give a slight edge to crawdads over nope but feels pretty coinflippy so I don’t mind either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
