ChipDerby Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Maybe I’m just the pessimist this week, but I have the Derby list/T10 at ~$30M, the lowest of post-pandemic (overall BO should be higher than current floor of 1/28 weekend of $34.9M though). CD/LD really mucked up the math, so could just be that my method to correct for it is way off 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 1 hour ago, M37 said: Maybe I’m just the pessimist this week, but I have the Derby list/T10 at ~$30M, the lowest of post-pandemic (overall BO should be higher than current floor of 1/28 weekend of $34.9M though). CD/LD really mucked up the math, so could just be that my method to correct for it is way off Lowest prediction for: TGM, Super Pets and Minions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) 59 minutes ago, M37 said: Lowest prediction for: TGM, Super Pets and Minions Haha, I thought I might have the lowest for pets and minions. Hedged a bit towards pros last minute, but… seems like they should both be really low! Edited September 9, 2022 by Legion By Night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, Legion By Night said: Haha, I thought I might have the lowest for pets and minions. Hedged a bit towards pros last minute, but… seems like they should both be really low! Based on past post-LD weeks, around a 12x Wed seems reasonable, which were $129K and $98K respectively. I even bumped SP up a bit based on how well it’s been holding last couple of weeks and still only landed at $1.73 (-65%) … and now it has a $105K Thursday (-19%) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 +378 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 3 hours ago, Legion By Night said: +378 🤣 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandro Mazzola Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 I couldnt log into Derby for some reason, i sent my predictions to @ChipDerby Here is what I sent Brahmastra Part One: Shiva $3.84Barbarian $13.79Top Gun: Maverick $3.52Bullet Train $2.99Spider-Man: No Way Home $1.85DC League of Super-Pets $2.59The Invitation $3.05Beast $1.68Minions: The Rise of Gru $1.82Thor: Love and Thunder $0.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Updated the spreadsheet. Not sure about the math I extrapolated based on Friday so if anyone thinks different, edit the estimates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Cinema day taketh and cinema day giveth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, The More Fun XXR said: Updated the spreadsheet. Not sure about the math I extrapolated based on Friday so if anyone thinks different, edit the estimates. Not sure who made those edits but some of those are delusional 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, The More Fun XXR said: Not sure who made those edits but some of those are delusional 🤣 Me. No, those are all quite reasonable. I would say some of the previous nums I found were quite eyebrow raising 😛 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Just now, Legion By Night said: Me. No, those are all quite reasonable. I would say some of the previous nums I found were quite eyebrow raising 😛 Brahmastra nearly +150% from full Friday? Why would Barbarian get to nearly 11M off of 3.8M with that previews/true Friday ratio (weaker than Beasts but your FF to Wknd ratio is stronger?) Looks like you're only giving SP a 75% Sat increase after 378% Friday? Paw Patrol did 2.3M off a weaker Friday total and jump during the same weekend last year. Minions and NWH nearly the same Friday total but Minions went up 240% and NWH only 86% but you're giving them nearly the same Sat/Sunday though family films will be much heavier today? I guess we will see but I think 4-5 of these will be closer to my predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 I would just use ~3.6x Fri for the adult movies, ~4.3x for the 2 animated movies, and whatever math works out to for new releases (9-something and like 4-something?). It’s all just guesswork at this point anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, The More Fun XXR said: Brahmastra nearly +150% from full Friday? Yeah. From 1.3 True Friday Sat should go at least 1.5 and then sun 1+. 11 minutes ago, The More Fun XXR said: Why would Barbarian get to nearly 11M off of 3.8M with that previews/true Friday ratio (weaker than Beasts but your FF to Wknd ratio is stronger?) Frankly I am deferring a little to @Sandro Mazzola with that one who is well versed in horror. I think more like 10-10.3 maybe. It will have a modestly better true IM than some summer comparables because it’s schooltime now. Might be a little too low on kids Sats, but the difference in pre-labor Sat and post-labor sat was it that dramatic in the few years I checked. Edited September 11, 2022 by Legion By Night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, M37 said: I would just use ~3.6x Fri for the adult movies, ~4.3x for the 2 animated movies, and whatever math works out to for new releases (9-something and like 4-something?). It’s all just guesswork at this point anyway 2 minutes ago, Legion By Night said: Yeah. From 1.3 True Friday Sat should go at least 1.5 and then sun 1+. Frankly I am deferring a little to @Sandro Mazzola with that one who is well versed in horror. I think more like 10-10.3 maybe. It will have a modestly better true IM than some summer comparables because it’s schooltime now. Might be a little too low on kids Sats, but the difference in pre-labor Sat and post-labor sat was it that dramatic in the few years I checked. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 15 hours ago, M37 said: I would just use ~3.6x Fri for the adult movies, ~4.3x for the 2 animated movies, and whatever math works out to for new releases (9-something and like 4-something?). It’s all just guesswork at this point anyway Based on estimates: Adults movies: 3.83, 3.69, 3.94, 3.70, 3.89, 3.75 [3.8x avg] Kids Movies: 5.16, 5.67* (*over estimated for Sun) $10.0 $4.4 Family movies way out performed last year's comps for Sat (and Fri too), adult films marginally so, so maybe we see larger drops on Sunday We will not discuss the 20x Wed (27x Thursday!) for Super Pets though ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 What movies should we include in next derby? Out of the new releases, The Woman King is a lock, but what about Clerks 3, See How They Run, Pearl and Running the Bases? Are all of them opening wide too and derby worthy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Grebacio said: What movies should we include in next derby? Out of the new releases, The Woman King is a lock, but what about Clerks 3, See How They Run, Pearl and Running the Bases? Are all of them opening wide too and derby worthy? Add Woman King and maybe Pearl?, drop NHW and Brahmastra (or Minions or Beast). Wouldn’t bother with the others Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 None of them have a bop long range num. The numbers thinks they're all wide but they're sometimes wrong. Maybe @katnisscinnaplex will be able to run a check today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
