Jump to content

ChipDerby

Doldrums of Derby | Week 37

Recommended Posts



Maybe I’m just the pessimist this week, but I have the Derby list/T10 at ~$30M, the lowest of post-pandemic (overall BO should be higher than current floor of 1/28 weekend of $34.9M though). CD/LD really mucked up the math, so could just be that my method to correct for it is way off

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Maybe I’m just the pessimist this week, but I have the Derby list/T10 at ~$30M, the lowest of post-pandemic (overall BO should be higher than current floor of 1/28 weekend of $34.9M though). CD/LD really mucked up the math, so could just be that my method to correct for it is way off

Lowest prediction for: TGM, Super Pets and Minions 

Comedy Central Ok GIF by The Jim Jefferies Show

Link to comment
Share on other sites



59 minutes ago, M37 said:

Lowest prediction for: TGM, Super Pets and Minions 

Comedy Central Ok GIF by The Jim Jefferies Show

Haha, I thought I might have the lowest for pets and minions. Hedged a bit towards pros last minute, but… seems like they should both be really low!

Edited by Legion By Night
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Haha, I thought I might have the lowest for pets and minions. Hedged a bit towards pros last minute, but… seems like they should both be really low!

Based on past post-LD weeks, around a 12x Wed seems reasonable, which were $129K and $98K respectively. I even bumped SP up a bit based on how well it’s been holding last couple of weeks and still only landed at $1.73 (-65%) … and now it has a $105K Thursday (-19%)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites





I couldnt log into Derby for some reason, i sent my predictions to @ChipDerby 

Here is what I sent

 

Brahmastra Part One: Shiva    $3.84
Barbarian    $13.79
Top Gun: Maverick    $3.52
Bullet Train    $2.99
Spider-Man: No Way Home    $1.85
DC League of Super-Pets    $2.59
The Invitation    $3.05
Beast    $1.68
Minions: The Rise of Gru    $1.82
Thor: Love and Thunder    $0.84

Link to comment
Share on other sites





17 minutes ago, The More Fun XXR said:

 

Not sure who made those edits but some of those are delusional 🤣

Me.  
 

No, those are all quite reasonable. I would say some of the previous nums I found were quite eyebrow raising 😛 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Legion By Night said:

Me.  
 

No, those are all quite reasonable. I would say some of the previous nums I found were quite eyebrow raising 😛 

 

Brahmastra nearly +150% from full Friday? Why would Barbarian get to nearly 11M off of 3.8M with that previews/true Friday ratio (weaker than Beasts but your FF to Wknd ratio is stronger?)

 

Looks like you're only giving SP a 75% Sat increase after 378% Friday? Paw Patrol did 2.3M off a weaker Friday total and jump during the same weekend last year. Minions and NWH nearly the same Friday total but Minions went up 240% and NWH only 86% but you're giving them nearly the same Sat/Sunday though family films will be much heavier today? 

 

I guess we will see but I think 4-5 of these will be closer to my predictions. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



I would just use ~3.6x Fri for the adult movies, ~4.3x for the 2 animated movies, and whatever math works out to for new releases (9-something and like 4-something?). It’s all just guesswork at this point anyway 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



11 minutes ago, The More Fun XXR said:

Brahmastra nearly +150% from full Friday?

Yeah. From 1.3 True Friday Sat should go at least 1.5 and then sun 1+.

 

11 minutes ago, The More Fun XXR said:

Why would Barbarian get to nearly 11M off of 3.8M with that previews/true Friday ratio (weaker than Beasts but your FF to Wknd ratio is stronger?)

Frankly I am deferring a little to @Sandro Mazzola with that one who is well versed in horror. I think more like 10-10.3 maybe. It will have a modestly better true IM than some summer comparables because it’s schooltime now.  
 

Might be a little too low on kids Sats, but the difference in pre-labor Sat and post-labor sat was it that dramatic in the few years I checked.

Edited by Legion By Night
Link to comment
Share on other sites



4 minutes ago, M37 said:

I would just use ~3.6x Fri for the adult movies, ~4.3x for the 2 animated movies, and whatever math works out to for new releases (9-something and like 4-something?). It’s all just guesswork at this point anyway 

 

2 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Yeah. From 1.3 True Friday Sat should go at least 1.5 and then sun 1+.

 

Frankly I am deferring a little to @Sandro Mazzola with that one who is well versed in horror. I think more like 10-10.3 maybe. It will have a modestly better true IM than some summer comparables because it’s schooltime now.  
 

Might be a little too low on kids Sats, but the difference in pre-labor Sat and post-labor sat was it that dramatic in the few years I checked.

 

homer simpson GIF

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



15 hours ago, M37 said:

I would just use ~3.6x Fri for the adult movies, ~4.3x for the 2 animated movies, and whatever math works out to for new releases (9-something and like 4-something?). It’s all just guesswork at this point anyway 

Based on estimates:

Adults movies: 3.83, 3.69, 3.94, 3.70, 3.89, 3.75 [3.8x avg]

Kids Movies: 5.16, 5.67* (*over estimated for Sun)

$10.0

$4.4

Satisfying Rose Mciver GIF by CBS

 

Family movies way out performed last year's comps for Sat (and Fri too), adult films marginally so, so maybe we see larger drops on Sunday

 

We will not discuss the 20x Wed (27x Thursday!) for Super Pets though ...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites





1 hour ago, Grebacio said:

What movies should we include in next derby?

Out of the new releases, The Woman King is a lock, but what about Clerks 3, See How They Run, Pearl and Running the Bases? Are all of them opening wide too and derby worthy?

Add Woman King and maybe Pearl?, drop NHW and Brahmastra (or Minions or Beast). Wouldn’t bother with the others

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites





Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.