The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3 Utah presale update. 
Thursday Oct 10 showings only. 
7 theaters. 
16 showings. 
 
T-21 was 177 tickets sold.  25.286 tickets per theater or 11.06 tickets per showing. 
  
T-17 is 245 tickets sold (+38.4%).  35.00 tickets per theater or 15.31 tickets per showing.  
 
T-13 (1:30pm EST) is 292 tickets sold (+19.18%).  41.71 tickets per theater or 18.25 tickets per showing.

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3 Kentucky presale update. 
Thursday Oct 10 showings only. 
11 theaters. 
24 showings. 
 
T-21 was 238 tickets sold.  21.636 tickets per theater or 9.92 tickets per showing. 
  
T-17 was 311 tickets sold (+30.67%).  28.27 tickets per theater or 12.958 tickets per showing. 
 
T-13 is 338 tickets sold (+8.68%).  30.73 tickets per theater or 14.08 tickets per showing.

[vafrow]

On 9/26/2024 at 6:18 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Wild Robot, T-1, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 117

New Sales : 30

Growth: 34%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 6.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 26/5

Early Evening: 73/7

Late Evening: 18/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular:  7/1

Regular 3D: 0/1

Dolby: 17/2

Dolby 3D: 72/8

IMAX: 21/4

 

Comps 

0.278x KFP4 for $1.3M

0.320x IO2 for $4.2M

3.900x Garfield for $7.5M

1.463x TFOne for $4.1M

2.786x IF for $4.9M

0.669x Wonka for $2.3M

 

Average: $4.1M

 

Growth didn't seem top bad, but it's falling against comps across the board.

 

Based on where it was trending a few days ago, I'm not as optimistic. But, I imagi this should be walk up friendly.

 

Regardless, as non sequel animation, hard to find any reason to complain here.

 

My estimates were pretty far off the mark. I did catch that walk ups were falling behind. But, kids films have been most erratic results.

 

One, it should serve as a warning on reading too much into individual results. Because of smaller volumes, i tend to post more frequently, as well as aiming for more readability. I think it tends to result in my tracks carrying more weight, especially as bigger trackers have stepped back recently. Mine might get weighed more than it should by people checking into this thread more infrequently.

 

But, I probably should try and look over results and figure out what's driving the differences. For anything kid related, status of school closures matters a lot. I probably need to do a better job of denoting key dates. Inside Out 2 ooene when Canadian schools were still running, but American schools were mainly closed. It makes sense that IO2 comp was off.

[CheeseWizard]

So what kind of opening weekend is Wild Robot aiming for?

[AniNate]

So it ultimately came out to around 60 admissions per theater assuming $10.78 ATP. Canton was at exactly half that at my T-1 take, might be useful info for future tracking.

 

 

Edited 21 hours ago by AniNate

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3 Colorado presale update. 
Thursday Oct 10 showings only. 
26 theaters. 
55 (+1 from T-17) showings

T-21 was 526 tickets sold.  20.23 tickets per theater or 9.74 tickets per showing. 
  
T-17 was 694 tickets sold (+31.94%).  26.69 tickets per theater or 12.85 tickets per showing.  
 
T-13 is 832 tickets sold (+19.85%).  32.00 tickets per theater or 15.13 tickets per showing.

Edited 15 hours ago by CompoundTheGains

[AniNate]

I do see there are over 220 sales for TWR at Canton tomorrow, so that's definitely a good sign. Not sure if it will have the same walkup pace though

[WebSurfer]

35 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

My estimates were pretty far off the mark. I did catch that walk ups were falling behind. But, kids films have been most erratic results.

 

One, it should serve as a warning on reading too much into individual results. Because of smaller volumes, i tend to post more frequently, as well as aiming for more readability. I think it tends to result in my tracks carrying more weight, especially as bigger trackers have stepped back recently. Mine might get weighed more than it should by people checking into this thread more infrequently.

 

But, I probably should try and look over results and figure out what's driving the differences. For anything kid related, status of school closures matters a lot. I probably need to do a better job of denoting key dates. Inside Out 2 ooene when Canadian schools were still running, but American schools were mainly closed. It makes sense that IO2 comp was off.

I guess the hurricane could be to be blame for some of the low numbers for TWR, but who knows…

 

To be honest, given how Transformers One and The Wild Robot have done/are doing, especially when compared to the trackers, I’m not sure if I can ever trust personal trackers on BOT ever again. These two movies deserved better.
 

I’m hoping for somewhere between 35-45 million for TWR at this point, but who the hell knows anymore.

Edited 20 hours ago by WebSurfer

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3 Rhode Island presale update. 
Thursday Oct 10 showings only. 
2 theaters. 
2 showings. 
  
T-16 was 46 tickets sold.  23 tickets per theater or 23 tickets per showing. 
 
T-13 is 66 (+43.48%) tickets sold.  33 tickets per theater or 33 tickets per showing. 
 
NEED more showings in Road Island as theaters are getting full for Thursday night!!!!

 

Terrifier 3 Delaware presale update. 
Thursday Oct 10 showings only. 
2 theaters. 
6 showings. 
  
T-16 was 105 tickets sold.  52.5 tickets per theater or 17.5 tickets per showing. 
 
T-13 is 106 (+0.95%) tickets sold.    53 tickets per theater or 17.67 tickets per showing.

 

OK, I’ve updated all of my tracked states and will update again Monday/Tuesday time permitting.

[AniNate]

Just for research/fun I counted up TWR Saturday admissions:

 

BISTRO NORTH CANTON	27
CUYAHOGA FALLS	62
MONROEVILLE MALL	20
NORTH HILLS	346
ROBINSON TOWNSHIP	201
STRONGSVILLE	76
TINSELTOWN BOARDMAN	63
TINSELTOWN NORTH CANTON	226
TOWNSHIP MARKETPLACE	26
VALLEY VIEW	63
WOOSTER	34

 

 

Total: 1144, average: 104

 

Thursday T-2 average: 12.8

Thursday T-1 average: 17.8

 

 

 

Edited 19 hours ago by AniNate

[The Wild Eric]

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-wicked-vs-gladiator-ii-a-november-22nd-battle-is-taking-shape/

 

[The Wild Eric]

Quorum Updates

Saturday Night T-15: 20.83% Awareness, 41.91% Interest

Better Man T-120: 17.72% Awareness, 32.15% Interest

The Monkey T-148: 26.7% Awareness, 43.1% Interest

 

Bagman T-1: 20.99% Awareness, 38.94% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 27% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 20% chance of 10M

 

Megalopolis T-1: 28.09% Awareness, 37.95% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

The Wild Robot T-1: 44.23% Awareness, 46.15% Interest

Final Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Interest: 82% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 18% chance of 30M

 

Joker: Folie a Deux T-8: 70.29% Awareness, 61.13% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 86% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 90% chance of 70M, 80% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 100M

 

White Bird T-8: 19.2% Awareness, 36.31% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 9% chance of 20M

 

Gladiator II T-57: 41.75% Awareness, 47.94% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 82% chance of 40M, 64% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 36% chance of 70M, 27% chance of 80M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 62% chance of 60M, 37% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 80M

T-60 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M, 18% chance of 30M, 11% chance of 40M, 7% chance of 50M, 6% chance of 70M, 4% chance of 80M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 86% chance of 20M, 57% chance of 30M, 43% chance of 40M, 29% chance of 50M, 14% chance of 80M

 

Wicked T-57: 50.07% Awareness, 50.22% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 87% chance of 50M, 69% chance of 60M, 62% chance of 70M, 56% chance of 90M, 50% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 33% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 83% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 40M, 58% chance of 50M, 41% chance of 60M, 32% chance of 70M, 27% chance of 80M, 24% chance of 90M, 22% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 92% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 42% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M

[Caption Action 3]

After seeing the buzz about TWR, looked at TWR for Saturday/Sunday open caption screenings at AMC/Cinemark. Several AMCs not having OC screenings of TWR Saturday/Sunday.  50 screenings checked, NYC skewing the data, so far a 5.60 ticket to screentime ratio. Not great, but better than Joker is doing right now - that one has 213 screentimes so far, only 133 tickets sold, (including New York City) a dismal ticket to screentime ratio of 0.62.  This is being posted very early Saturday morning, so final ratio will be higher for TWR.

[vafrow]

On 9/27/2024 at 6:55 AM, vafrow said:

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-7, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 170

New Sales since T-12: 54

Growth since T-12: 47%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 7.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 11/4

Early Evening: 115/9

Late Evening: 44/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 67/7

VIP: 67/6

IMAX: 36/6

 

Comps

1.405x Beetlejuice² for $13.8M

0.752x GxK for $7.5M

0.279x Dune 2 for $2.8M

0.810x BB:RoD for $4.7M

0.389x The Marvels for $2.6M

1.056x Alien Romulus for $6.9M

Average: $6.4M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total:240

New sales since T-12: 92

Growth: 62%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.455x Dune 2 for $0.7M

2.667x Twisters for $7.2M

4.444x The Fall Guy for $3.6M

 

Average: $3.9M

 

It's been a busy week for me so I haven't been able to post updates.

 

I don't have time to really try and interpret what's going on, but growth rate was slower at tje beginning of the week and is speeding up the last couple of days, but that's expected one week out.

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-6, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 190

New Sales : 20

Growth: 12%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 26

Tickets per Showtime: 7.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 11/6

Early Evening: 135/11

Late Evening: 44/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 74/7

VIP: 75/7

IMAX: 37/6

Regular: 4/3

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

1.473x Beetlejuice² for $14.4M

0.766x GxK for $7.7M

0.290x Dune 2 for $2.9M

0.833x BB:RoD for $4.8M

2.159x Aquaman 2 for $9.7M

0.416x The Marvels for $2.7M

1.152x Alien Romulus for $7.5M

Average: $6.4M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total:271

New sales: 31

Growth: 13%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.477x Dune 2 for $1.0M

2.357x Twisters for $7.2M

4.672x The Fall Guy for $3.7M

 

Average: $3.7M

 

I had some clean up to do as I hadn't updated some of the numbers around showings. I've added Aquaman 2 as a comp, but it's actually not serving as a great comp because of the short sales cycle.

 

Looking at comps, the ones that have been the most stable are probably GxK, HG: BoSS and Romulus.

 

GxK had great walk ups due to Easter weekend and Friday being a holiday, so it's probably overstating. HG: BoSS might have over performed as Joker isn't faring that well. Romulus probably is the best option.

 

I'm really surprised that Beetlejuice seems to be serving as such a poor comp. It didn't feel like it grossly underindexed in my market when it was going through. 

 

The EA shows are actually getting closer to capacity. There's still lots of seats, but for those that like quality seats for an imax showing, the logical move is to wait a few days and watch it Thursday. EA shows are so difficult to predict based on historical, that I wouldn't put any faith in those numbers. It's just data gathering for me at this stage.