ChipDerby Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 Holy shit I got a top 3 score that's as good as winning for me! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 (edited) No idea what to expect this week. I think I'll be way off no matter what I put for each movie because of NCD. I'm half expecting Barbie to return to #1. Edited August 22, 2023 by Bob Train Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilts Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 1 hour ago, ChipDerby said: Holy shit I got a top 3 score that's as good as winning for me! Unfortunately too optimistic on BB, as I was on Strays. @TalismanRing simply unbeatable this time, insane score 👊 54 minutes ago, Bob Train said: No idea what to expect this week. I think I'll be way off no matter what I put for each movie because of NCD. I'm half expecting Barbie to return to #1. I just had a quick check on NCD 2022 scores and they weren't pretty! And similar methodology will be useless this year I guess given it's not falling on Labor Day weekend and Sun vs Sat 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 1:38 PM, Hilts said: Unfortunately too optimistic on BB, as I was on Strays. @TalismanRing simply unbeatable this time, insane score 👊 I just had a quick check on NCD 2022 scores and they weren't pretty! And similar methodology will be useless this year I guess given it's not falling on Labor Day weekend and Sun vs Sat Also $4 vs $3 tickets to take into account 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 (edited) Since tickets are $4 if admissions for Sunday are at 8m, then Sunday gross will be $32m, which would be up from Sunday's, although Gran Turismo and a few others are opening this week so I'm expecting most holdovers to be flat ish from last week on Sunday, some like Barbie increasing and some like Blue Beetle likely decrease Edited August 23, 2023 by Bob Train Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 (edited) @ChipDerby Do we no longer get Gold the week we win? I don't think I got it last time. Just wondering. Edited August 25, 2023 by TalismanRing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted August 25, 2023 Author Share Posted August 25, 2023 4 hours ago, TalismanRing said: @ChipDerby Do we no longer get Gold the week we win? I don't think I got it last time. Just wondering. That's a better question for @AndyLL since I just work here 😅 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Just out of curiosity, anyone want to share their process for estimating the NCD weekend? (And just winging it is always an option) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted August 26, 2023 Author Share Posted August 26, 2023 I took the drops from last weekend and made them less 😅 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 9 hours ago, M37 said: Just out of curiosity, anyone want to share their process for estimating the NCD weekend? (And just winging it is always an option) I did about 80% of the IMs for last time (adjusting for adult vs family/kids etc) since it's Sunday and no holiday Monday. 🤷♀️ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyLL Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 6:24 PM, TalismanRing said: @ChipDerby Do we no longer get Gold the week we win? I don't think I got it last time. Just wondering. Sorry... work has been killing me and I got behind. Everything is updated now 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 On 8/26/2023 at 8:09 PM, TalismanRing said: I did about 80% of the IMs for last time (adjusting for adult vs family/kids etc) since it's Sunday and no holiday Monday. 🤷♀️ My convoluted method: estimated Fri + Sat using typical % drops/IM method. Then cut 10% off estimate of that to account for some demand being pulled to NCD on Sunday. For NCD, started with a baseline 10% drop from last Sunday (for ~$25M aggregate and presuming there would be some correlation to day of week), then made adjustments for genre, like boosting family films up more, lowered some others Wasn't perfect, but seems to have mostly balanced out in the end 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 I would say it's quite impressive for admissions to be $500k above last years considering a) late night business is way weaker on Sunday b) Tix are $4 instead of $3 c) Announced on a quite short notice More appealing product probably helped. Last year it was movies everyone already watched like Top Gun or No Way Home. It could have been higher imo if theaters didn't waste so many screens on Mario/TLM which weren't so full. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
