When will Secret Life of Pets OW ($104.4m) for an "original" movie be beaten?

[cannastop]

One might assume it would be another animated movie, because this record used to the the domain of Pixar. However, if an Avatar-sized original concept comes along... maybe?

 

However, inflation is inflation so perhaps this record can be beaten sooner rather than later. I think the soonest even possible candidate is Pixar's Elio, though there are many reasons to doubt that it can reach the same heights. It's completely unproven and Pixar (and the owner of Pixar, Disney) have stumbled. Still, my bet is on Pixar to claim this record again, sometime this decade.

 

note: for the purposes of this, an original movie is one that is not based on any previous IP, including sequels.

[AniNate]

I think we gotta be at least half a decade removed from COVID and the animation market in general in a healthy place before this is even like a 10% possibility. So whatever it is we probably don't know what it is yet, though I expect it would have to be a similarly high-concept idea boosted by Illumination's singular ability to promote it to multiple age demographics.

 

I don't see any kind of Pixar movie being able to achieve that kind of immediate mass interest in the foreseeable future, they're currently struggling to figure out how to get half that amount of people to show up opening weekend.

 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by AniNate

[Bob Train]

Perhaps a Christopher Nolan original could do it someday, with a few more years of inflation. Maybe if he ever joins forces with DiCaprio again. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

this thread was more interesting before someone mentioned Nolan; I thought this was asking about an original animation movie opening above Pets

Edited October 23, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[cannastop]

14 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Perhaps a Christopher Nolan original could do it someday, with a few more years of inflation. Maybe if he ever joins forces with DiCaprio again. 

True I didn't consider Nolan. Still if Oppenheimer couldn't do it... (I know it's not a true original though)

[JustLurking]

Secret life of pets stealing this record from Inside Out is fucking criminal.

 

Unfortunately I'm not really sure what could even beat it. Nolan seems like the most likely candidate as Cameron's blockbuster efforts will be focused on Avatar. I don't see an original animation ever beating this number.

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, JustLurking said:

I don't see an original animation ever beating this number.

strong words. Never ever?

[JustLurking]

17 minutes ago, cannastop said:

strong words. Never ever?

Original animation just seems to be on a descending path and it's hard to imagine it getting enough hype to beat this number, though I also still can't believe fucking life of pets got to such a number to begin with so maybe I'm just that out of touch.

[YM!]

Illumination original or Nolan original.

[Giorno]

Cameron if he ever decides to do another big scale movie that isn't avatar or nolan doing a big action flick could possibly do it but those chances are low 

[CJohn]

[cannastop]

If Nolan makes an original movie after Odyssey I think it has a shot.

 

For movies not based on any previously released material, opening weekends:

Adjusted figures based on general CPI data.
 

1. The Secret Life of Pets ($104m) ($139m adjusted from 2016)
2. Inside Out ($90m) ($122m adjusted from 2015)
3. Avatar ($77m) ($114m adjusted from 2009)
4.  Zootopia ($75m) ($101m adjusted from 2016)
5. Us ($71m) ($89m adjusted from 2019)
6. The Incredibles ($70m) ($118m adjusted from 2004)
7. Finding Nemo ($70m) ($123m adjusted from 2003)
8. Up ($68m) ($102m adjusted from 2009)
9. Bruce Almighty ($68m) ($118m adjusted from 2003)
10. Brave ($66m) ($92m adjusted from 2012)
11. 2012 ($65m) ($96m adjusted from 2009)
12. WALL-E ($63m) ($92m adjusted from 2008)
13. Inception ($63m) (92m adjusted from 2010)
14. Hancock ($63m) ($91m adjusted from 2008)
15. Monsters, Inc. ($63m) ($113m adjusted from 2001)
16. Kung Fu Panda ($60m) ($88m adjusted from 2008)
17. Cars (60m) ($95m adjusted from 2006)
18. Signs (60m) ($106m adjusted from 2002)
19. Monsters vs. Aliens ($59m) ($89m adjusted from 2009)
20. Pearl Harbor ($59m) ($106m adjusted from 2001)
21. Moana (3-day) ($57m) ($75m adjusted from 2016)
22. Despicable Me ($56m) ($83m adjusted from 2010)
23. Valentine's Day ($56m) ($83m adjusted from 2010)
24. Gravity ($56m) ($76m adjusted from 2013)
25. San Andreas ($55m) ($73m adjusted from 2015)
26. Ted ($54m) ($76m adjusted from 2012)
27. 8 Mile ($51m) ($90m adjusted from 2002)
28. Bohemian Rhapsody ($51m) ($65m adjusted from 2018)
29. Coco (3-day) ($51m) ($66m adjusted from 2017)
30. Dunkirk ($51m) ($66m adjusted from 2017)
31. Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($50m) ($83m adjusted from 2005)
32. Independence Day ($50m) ($102m adjusted from 1996)
33. A Quiet Place ($50m) ($63m adjusted from 2018)

 

That's all of them that made over $50m OW. As you can see, absolutely none are from the post-pandemic era (though Sinners came admirably close)

[Eric Olsen]

Never!

[Flip]

Eventually something will, might take over a decade

[cannastop]

7 minutes ago, Flip said:

Eventually something will, might take over a decade

Adjusted though, will be harder.

[AniNate]

Probably another animation studio doing an easily marketable premise

 

Maybe if James Cameron has another original movie left in him and scheduled it in the summer that might do it

[ChipDerby]

Pixar with 5 of the top ten!

[toutvabien]

While the trajectory on animation as a medium has been following an IP trend, I still kinda feel there might one day be a Pixar movie that does it haha.

 

Other than that, Nolan, Cameron and Coogler are all potential candidates to make the movie that does it.

[AniNate]

I can maybe see it as an optimal outcome for Hoppers, where Elio is a big critically acclaimed hit and the Pixar brand gets a boost based on that. Zootopia would adjust to close to Pets' real dollar opening if it came out now, and I'm sure it will get a big push with the Winter Olympics next year the way Moana 2 did with Paris.

[cannastop]

13 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I can maybe see it as an optimal outcome for Hoppers, where Elio is a big critically acclaimed hit and the Pixar brand gets a boost based on that. Zootopia would adjust to close to Pets' real dollar opening if it came out now, and I'm sure it will get a big push with the Winter Olympics next year the way Moana 2 did with Paris.

Hoppers will be interesting. We don't really have comps for an early March family movie weekend in the 2pm previews era, and especially not in the post-pandemic era. We don't know what its previews would be compared to the rest of the weekend.

 

Maybe we'd have a clearer idea if Turning Red went to theaters originally.

 

Closest thing we actually have would be Dog Man.

 

EDIT: Forgot Kung Fu Panda 4 existed.

Edited May 9 by cannastop