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Eric is Quiet

Weekend Thread (6/21-23)

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Moana 2: IO2 blowing up definitely has me more optimistic on its prospects. Pencil me in for $110m five day/$320m domestic/around $850m worldwide. Feel like Frozen 2 level reception is right but if it wasn’t for that fact this turned into a movie about 6 months ago when Wish died and they brought in actual songwriters from Broadway, I’d feel more optimistic from a quality perspective that could make it pull a Shrek 2/Across/DM2.

 

Zootopia 2: Feel a more modest increase for this. Still is popular but not to the heights of Frozen or Moana. Think similar jump as Frozen II for about $390m-400m domestic with enough increases in other countries to make up for China falling to put it about flat from the first. Domestic could go higher.

 

Toy Story 5: Fifthquels don’t really work as well but think it’ll do fine enough. Around 350m domestic and 900m worldwide, assuming quality is there.

 

Frozen 3: I have been saying since the first movie Jennifer Lee has screenwriting problems which has been seen in Wrinkle in Time, Frozen 2’s development cycle and Wish but think we’re underestimating this one. Frozen was like so big and this being the first of a two parter could draw in excitement and it also being a while since the second. Wouldn’t be surprised if the GA really likes it, topping IO2.

 

Shrek 5: If quality is there, think this could be animation’s first $700m domestic hit and maybe like $1.8B-$1.9B WW. Shrek is love, Shrek is life.

 

Incredibles 3: Probably could also top IO2’s record considering the right pitch. As much as we moan about it, the GA seemed to dug the second one. Only question is if it makes the OS jumps to reach IO2.

 

Mario 2: Feels like a Frozen II to me, won’t have the same nostalgia craze but the GA really loved. Expecting similar bumps puts it at $650m/$1650m.

 

Beyond: Though I don’t think it can’t top IO2 worldwide, could see potential of a big increase domestic as both the first and the second are really loved. Haven’t seen as consistent quality from an animated franchise since Toy Story. If Beyond delivers and makes an all timer, would not be surprised at Incredibles 2 numbers domestic.

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I feel like ZOOTOPIA II is being underestimated here. The original legged its way out to become one of the biggest movies of 2016. Its run, especially how it eventually outgrossed BVS: DAWN OF JUSTICE, was fun to watch.

 

The only problem I see that could affect part II in a way is Angel Studios' YOUNG DAVID.

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Just now, kayumanggi said:

The only problem I see that could affect part II in a way is Angel Studios' YOUNG DAVID.

Feel like that does about the same as The Star did against Coco.

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Couldn't help but be back for this phenomenal run at the box office. That being said, getting too much Top Gun Maverick deja vu from the '75M 3rd weekend predictions' from here and reddit. Sure, AQP is no JWD, but the loss of premium screens have gotta hurt, no matter how much of a leggy monster you are. Would be very, very happy with a 60M 3rd round. 

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Just now, YM! said:

Feel like that does about the same as The Star did against Coco.

Well I mean Angel Studios did say that they hoped Young David would be the most successful animated film of all time. And I trust Angel Studios with my life. Like Jesus!

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It's just as possible a sequel disappoints as it is a huge hit. People like to look for patterns in the box office and genres and studios and stuff but if anything this run has just gone to show that the truth is "it is until it isn't"

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1 minute ago, YM! said:

Feel like that does about the same as The Star did against Coco.

 

Fair enough. I just think Angel Studios will go all out for that since it's their first ever animated feature.

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INCREDIBLES III should focus on the children with Violet and Dash as Young adults and Jack-Jack, a teenager.

 

FROZEN III should have a legit villain this time.

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1 minute ago, Eric is Anxious said:

Zootopia II should have Nick and Judy be gay and do crimes.

It’s Disney Eric. Best you’ll get is a brief mention or hand hold that’ll be cut for China.

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14 minutes ago, AniNate said:

It's just as possible a sequel disappoints as it is a huge hit. People like to look for patterns in the box office and genres and studios and stuff but if anything this run has just gone to show that the truth is "it is until it isn't"

When was the last time a sequel didn't do gangbusters? Cars 3?

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