Weekday Thread | September 30-October 3

[wattage]

Also I don't believe it lost any PLF Wednesday, the Joker fan screening that took IMAX for a showing was on Monday. PLF loss is gonna be felt a bit today and fully on Friday. 

Edited Thursday at 04:17 PM by wattage
wrong date

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

There was also the VP debate. Yes I know I will get the who was watching that thing.  In a contested close election probably a lot more than you would think.

It had 43.15 million viewers...

Edited Thursday at 04:19 PM by efialtes76

[AniNate]

TWR has been slightly lowballed in initial estimates the last few days, though 35%+ Wednesday drops haven't been that uncommon recently. Happened to Bad Guys, IF, and Panda 4 on their first Wednesdays too.

[CheeseWizard]

could there be a legitimate chance of wild robot suffering a somewhat harsh drop next weekend? 

Edited Thursday at 04:44 PM by CheeseWizard

[AnthonyJPHer]

This Wednesday wasn’t really indicating amazing WOM that will get it to 150m. It’s too early to say at this point but I could see a slightly harsher drop for The Wild Robot this weekend than many people expect. 

[CheeseWizard]

5 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

This Wednesday wasn’t really indicating amazing WOM that will get it to 150m. It’s too early to say at this point but I could see a slightly harsher drop for The Wild Robot this weekend than many people expect. 

Something does feel off. It’s doing better than TFOne, but TFOne had a 78% Monday drop, a 60% Tuesday increase and a 43% Wednesday drop. Wild robot so far has had a 77% Monday drop, a 35% increase for Tuesday and then 42% drop for Wednesday? This could potentially indicate something if I was smarter. 
 

TFOne had a 25% drop for Thursday so ig Wild Robot would be fine if it doesn’t have something similar. 
 

Though honestly it would kind of make sense if it did below expectations here. I mean no animated movie in September has crossed 500mil before, so maybe it stands to reason that even combined, both of them might not make that number

[AniNate]

At this point TWR still has a better true weekend multiplier than Cloudy 1 (1.21x to 1.13x). The reality is there's just no way to be certain until the weekend.

 

 

Edited Thursday at 05:03 PM by AniNate

[wattage]

37 minutes ago, AniNate said:

TWR has been slightly lowballed in initial estimates the last few days, though 35%+ Wednesday drops haven't been that uncommon recently. Happened to Bad Guys, IF, and Panda 4 on their first Wednesdays too.

I'm not concerned with this drop off Tuesday, depending on how big the jumps are on Tuesday it's not really a useful piece of information, bigger the increase the bigger the decrease and all that. It's drop off Monday is what's concerning. Kung Fu Panda 4 and Bad Guys both stayed within that ~10% range. IF did worse but Garfield was coming out that weekend so it made sense to have a weaker hold. 

Edited Thursday at 05:04 PM by wattage

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Hiccup23 said:

Hoping TWR can stay flat today but I am thinking $1.6 million. That should give it the following.

 

Friday- $5.2 million

Saturday- $9.2 million

Sunday- $6.1 million

 

2nd weekend- $20.5 million (-42.7%)

Total- $65.1 million

 

With some major public school districts taking off today and tomorrow for the Jewish holidays, I would expect TWR to do better than flat today...

[Eric Quinn]

I mean, a mid to low 40s second weekend drop seems fine for Wild Robot? Hard to find a lot of late September comparables post-COVID, but that's better than Paw Patrol 2, and it's still a better hold than most movies when they lose their PLFs. And it'll probably stabilize once the PLF effect is gone and out of the way like most movies do. I don't really see the point in all this handwringing IMO.

[AniNate]

10 minutes ago, wattage said:

I'm not concerned with this drop off Tuesday, depending on how big the jumps are on Tuesday it's not really a useful piece of information, bigger the increase the bigger the decrease and all that. It's drop off Monday is what's concerning. Kung Fu Panda 4 and Bad Guys both stayed within that sub 10% range. IF did worse but Garfield was coming out that weekend so it made sense to have a weaker hold. 

 

Wasn't there a theory that the hurricane may have pushed some business to later in the weekend or Monday? That might have been a factor in wonky weekday holds, especially since many theaters were still closed on Friday.

 

Idk, I'll wait for the Thursday # before panicking. That ended up being the first big harbinger of TFOne's drop.

 

 

Edited Thursday at 05:14 PM by AniNate

[wattage]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Wasn't there a theory that the hurricane may have pushed some business to later in the weekend or Monday? That might have been a factor in wonky weekday holds, especially since many theaters were still closed on Friday.

 

Possible. We'll figure out more with more weekly data. Apparently there's some holidays some schools are taking off that TwoMisfits mentioned so that might effect things too. But we'll get there when we get there. Also possible that ERC is wildly off, wouldn't be the first time lol. 

 

I'm not panicking really, the movie will do what it's gonna do and I can't control it. But if we need to adjust down on weekend expectations that's the first sign. Thursday will be the other sign positive or negative since we'll get a real feel for the PLF loss then. I just like going in the weekend not facing any big surprises if I can avoid it. Like with Transformers the Thursday drop like you said, when I saw that I knew it was gonna be trouble. 

[AniNate]

The WR Wednesday is still 50% ahead of Cloudy. It may very well ultimately just be more of a weekend performer the same way.

[Eric Quinn]

 

[Eric Quinn]