The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

[A Marvel Fanboy]

SK 30MJP 35MChina 50M (bad release date + too long delay + overal weak receptions in other markets)HK+TW 20MThat is half of MI4 in these parts.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I think japan is looking at 50M decrease. UK, Germany and Sweden will probably decrease as well(I am talking just in $ gross). I am thinking the range of 650-800M at best at the moment. I definitely dont see this one breaking any records in latin america.

This.Latin America probably will be the worst parts for Hobbit IMO.

[peludo]

I don't see it getting as good legs as MI:GP. That one had a really out-of-world WOM in these parts.For opening it looks like 1m admissions 4-day for TH1 ($7.5M). For total I'd say around 30M.

For that reason I said that it is not a good method . Anyway it still would be an increase from ROTK. Do we know what has been the growth of SK market during this 9 years? I do not have SK in the group of expanding markets, but maybe I am wrong.

[John Marston]

Europe I think won't decrease as much as initially though. In France it looks like it is already starting make up lost ground

[Rovex]

Really ? I heard it is already dropping from ROTK in France and Germany.

How can it already have dropped, its only been out for a matter of hours! Its selling very well here, and it will have legs. Everyone is panicking because its not opening to TA levels. Its December.

[John Marston]

also, people need to stop assuming this will get bad WOM. Audience reception does not always equal critical reception (and even then critical reception is no where near as bad as being made out, 75% rating means majority postiive)

[peludo]

Really ? I heard it is already dropping from ROTK in France and Germany.

The first data from France was a 29% lower in admissions than ROTK. With inflation, 3D and better exchange rate (about 9%) it would suppose a (mere) increase from ROTK in $.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Really possibility is Hobbit is missing 1B WW benchmark.2012 WW top 5:1. TA2. SKYFALL3. TDKR4. Hobbit ?5. IA4

[John Marston]

The first data from France was a 29% lower in admissions than ROTK. With inflation, 3D and better exchange rate (about 9%) it would suppose a (mere) increase from ROTK in $.

29% is not terrible and far better than its opening day

[Neo]

How can it already have dropped, its only been out for a matter of hours! Its selling very well here, and it will have legs. Everyone is panicking because its not opening to TA levels. Its December.

Its all about the legs. Christmas plus New Years should should see a nice boost.

[Neo]

Really possibility is Hobbit is missing 1B WW benchmark.2012 WW top 5:1. TA2. SKYFALL3. TDKR4. Hobbit ?5. IA4

Come on? Really? This needs to stop. Not even 2 days and already saying under 1B. Hold on. til at least after the OW.

[Rovex]

also, people need to stop assuming this will get bad WOM. Audience reception does not always equal critical reception (and even then critical reception is no where near as bad as being made out, 75% rating means majority postiive)

And lets not forget that the top critics, who are furthest away from GA reality, have this lower. Without them its 81%

[peludo]

29% is not terrible and far better than its opening day

Just to point that it is not whole France, but just Paris. Lyanna posted this in the morning:

LE HOBBIT : 46 461FOTR : 54 616TTT : 65 292ROTK : 65 141France - Paris 12/12/12All shows were sold out at my theater (2D and 3D), and it seems to be the same for many other cities.

[Rovex]

Come on? Really? This needs to stop. Not even 2 days and already saying under 1B. Hold on. til at least after the OW.

I agree, this is virtually trolling right now. The idea its getting 1.7 or 2B is out now, but 'only' 1B is not happening either.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Horrible start from HK too, not boding well for expanding markets:

[John Marston]

Horrible start from HK too, not boding well for expanding markets:http://forums.boxoff...940#entry564653

already knew that and Bluebomb gave plenty of potential reasons. But still, why not wait to get a bigger picture?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I agree, this is virtually trolling right now. The idea its getting 1.7 or 2B is out now, but 'only' 1B is not happening either.

Trolling ?I was just projecting following the trend.Lots box office geeks are already lowing Hobbit WW predictions to the 800M~900M range in Chinese forums.Not saying 1B is dead but the possiblity it misses it, or barely makes it, is there.

[Rovex]

Trolling ?I was just projecting following the trend.Lots box office geeks are already lowing Hobbit WW predictions to the 800M~900M range in Chinese forums.Not saying 1B is dead but the possiblity it misses it, or barely makes it, is there.

Not a chance. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

[Fake]

Don't expect much from India. Was initially thinking it would do 5M easily here..... almost impossible at this point.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

already knew that and Bluebomb gave plenty of potential reasons. But still, why not wait to get a bigger picture?

Hobbit OD just half of Pi in admissions, no spin there.Not to mention BD2 is coming next week ..... Edited December 13, 2012 by firedeep