China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[sgchn40]

MH going to hold -30-33% today

It would have to fall 50% or more starting next week to miss $390m, and that aint going to happen

FF7 locked.

$400m likely, needs to hold -38% for 4 weeks for 2.5B

How about TMK? Any chance of it making ¥900m by tomorrow?

[POTUS 2020]

How about TMK? Any chance of it making ¥900m by tomorrow?

Yup. looking like 9-10m today down just 25%~, will do same tomorrow. be at 901-903. May take 4th today and get back to 3rd tomorrow

 

Tumor doesn't look like its going to bump much today, if so, it may slide a bit tomorrow and get hit Monday.  MH could be over 30m today, bump a little tomorrow like last week and take back #1 by Wednesday with the good weekday holds its been having

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Yes, Furious 7 is going down, it's almost locked to happen at this point. MH will get more bumps on Chinese Valentine Day (820) and then the Victory holidays in early Sep.

 

However, I think MH has already done too much ...  movie was overrated 

 

Mr. Tumor came bad timing. The Tianjin disaster must have depressed the marketing buzz and people's mode of going to the movies. The boss of Wanda Media, Ye Ning, firstly called 1B for it early last month. Still a big win finance-wise. Budget is not big. And the movie is pretty much being sold on Baihe's name alone.

 

Also, it looks none of the CVD openers will be particularly huge. August is still doing 3.5B+.  It's a notsmall but somewhat boring month at the box office.

Edited August 15, 2015 by firedeep

[sgchn40]

Yes, Furious 7 is going down, it's almost locked to happen at this point. MH will get more bumps on Chinese Valentine Day (820) and then the Victory holidays in early Sep.

However, I think MH has already done too much ... movie was overrated

Mr. Tumor came bad timing. The Tianjin disaster must have depressed the marketing buzz and people's mode of going to the movies. The boss of Wanda Media, Ye Ning, firstly called 1B for it early last month. Still a big win finance-wise. Budget is not big. And the movie is pretty much being sold on Baihe's name alone.

Also, it looks none of the CVD openers will be particularly huge. August is still doing 3.5B+. It's a notsmall but somewhat boring month at the box office.

I am pretty sure there will be reports on how the one month restriction curbs F7 and other foreign movies gross. If it is a playing field, MH would prob be just 2nd or 3rd

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Well, we can not practically prove otherwise. There were indeed a lot of major releases coming after MH but basically all of them under-performed to different extent. Sure MH wouldn't be catching F7 if Minions were on its nail——at the way it has been showing, probably only Minions can grab over the family audience from MH. But we can also say F7 wouldn't have reached its height if AOU were put closely.

 

After an already huge opening, MH having been constantly dropping less than 40% all its run says a lot. The WOM among family audience must be great. TMK is sneaking to 1B. But the two managed to co-exist very well.

 

But it doesnot matter. Really.

 

In such a quickly expanding market, any record is just temporary. I am very confident that, within a year, MH's record will be no more.

 

In three or four years, if we look back at today, it would be just bland numbers and we could be seeing a dozen of 2B movies everywhere. There will be MonsterHunts literally every month (on average).

Edited August 16, 2015 by firedeep

[Olive]

Saturday(8.15.2015) numbers

 

Daily total 136M yuan 

1). Mr. Tumor ￥53.4M/cume: 142M($22.9M) 

2). Monster Hunt ￥28.9M/cume: 2182M($341.5M) 

3)  Roco Kingdom 4  ￥10.4M/cume: 24.8M($3.9M) 

4). TMK : Hero is backSeer ￥8.7M/cume: 892M($140M) 

5). Detective Lady￥7.9M/cume: 25.4M($4M) 

6). To The Fore ￥6.8M/cume:121M($19M) 

7). JianBingMan  ￥5.5M/cume:1135M($177.6M)

[POTUS 2020]

Sunday

MH 28.8m  2210m/$355m

TMK 8.9  901m/$145m

[POTUS 2020]

	TMK
	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
TH				0
FR	28			28	5
SA	28	0.0%		56	9
SU	40	42.9%		96	15
MO	40	0.0%		136	22
TU	58	45.0%		194	31
WE	66	13.8%		260	42
TH	49	-25.8%		309	50
FR	37	-24.5%	32.1%	346	56
SA	62	67.6%	121.4%	408	66
SU	61	-1.6%	52.5%	469	76
MO	30	-50.8%	-25.0%	499	80
TU	28	-6.7%	-51.7%	527	85
WE	25	-10.7%	-62.1%	552	89
TH	22	-12.0%	-55.1%	574	92
FR	21	-4.5%	-43.2%	595	96
SA	38	81.0%	-38.7%	633	102
SU	39	2.63%	-36.1%	672	108
MO	17	-56.4%	-43.3%	689	111
TU	16	-5.9%	-42.9%	705	114
WE	15	-6.3%	-40.0%	720	116
TH	10	-33.3%	-54.5%	730	118
FR	9.8	-2.0%	-53.3%	740	119
SA	20.5	109.2%	-46.1%	760	122
SU	20.5	0.00%	-47.4%	781	126
MO	10.2	-50.2%	-40.0%	791	127
TU	10.2	0.0%	-36.3%	801	129
WE	9.5	-6.9%	-36.7%	811	131
TH	8.0	-15.8%	-20.0%	819	132
FR	7.2	-10.0%	-26.5%	826	133
SA	12.7	76.4%	-38.0%	839	135
SU	15.0	18.11%	-26.8%	854	137
MO	7.2	-52.0%	-29.4%	861	139
TU	7.2	0.0%	-29.4%	868	140
WE	6.9	-4.2%	-27.4%	875	141
TH	4.1	-40.6%	-48.8%	879	142
FR	4.7	14.6%	-34.7%	884	142
SA	8.7	85.1%	-31.5%	892	144
SU	8.9	2.30%	-40.7%	901	145
MO	4.4	-50.6%	-38.9%	906	146	est
TU	4.0	-9.1%	-44.4%	910	146	proj
WE	4.0	0.0%	-42.0%	914	147	proj
TH	3.7	-7.5%	-9.8%	917	148	proj
			970	-1000	157

TMK needs to hold better than =30% this weekend to have a shot at 1B. Its market share has been equal to its showtimes after 5 weeks of always exceeding by 25% or more. small sign of it weakening, It may fall short w IO and Minions coming

Edited August 18, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[POTUS 2020]

FF7						TF4					MH
Day	Yn	% +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
Thur											165			165	27
Fri						195			195	32	132			297	48
Sat	51	- MN				223	14.4%		418	69	188	42.4%		485	78
Sun	347			398	64	213	-4.6%		631	103	184	-2.1%		669	108
Mon	185	-46.7%		583	94	123	-42.1%		754	124	110	-40.2%		779	125
Tues	167	-9.7%		750	121	112	-8.9%		866	142	103	-6.4%		882	142
Wed	137	-18.0%		887	143	95	-15.7%		961	157	85	-17.5%		967	156
Thur	115	-16.1%		1002	162	84	-11.0%		1045	171	83	-2.4%	-49.7%	1050	169
Fri	142	23.8%		1144	185	87	3.4%	-55.3%	1132	186	81	-2.4%	-38.6%	1131	182
Sat	226	59.0%		1371	221	130	48.8%	-41.9%	1262	207	121	49.4%	-35.6%	1252	202
Sun	185	-18.1%	-46.6%	1556	251	118	-9.0%	-44.6%	1379	226	125	3.3%	-32.1%	1377	222
Mon	73	-60.6%	-60.5%	1629	263	54	-58.3%	-56.1%	1433	235	64	-48.8%	-41.8%	1441	232
Tue	65	-11.0%	-61.1%	1694	273	53	-1.9%	-52.8%	1486	244	62	-3.1%	-39.8%	1503	242
Wed	52	-19.4%	-61.8%	1747	282	43	-18.9%	-54.5%	1529	251	57	-8.1%	-32.9%	1560	251
Thu	45	-14.1%	-60.9%	1792	289	39	-9.3%	-53.7%	1568	257	44	-22.8%	-47.0%	1604	258
Fri	59	31.1%	-58.6%	1851	298	42	7.7%	-51.8%	1610	264	47	6.8%	-42.0%	1651	266
Sat	92	55.1%	-59.6%	1942	313	62	47.6%	-52.2%	1672	274	78	66.0%	-35.5%	1729	278
Sun	69	-24.2%	-62.6%	2012	324	58	-6.45%	-50.8%	1730	284	72	-7.69%	-42.4%	1801	290
Mon	27	-61.4%	-63.3%	2038	329	26	-55.2%	-51.9%	1756	288	38	-47.2%	-40.6%	1839	296
Tue	26	-1.5%	-59.4%	2065	334	28	7.7%	-47.2%	1784	293	36	-5.3%	-41.9%	1875	302
Wed	24	-10.2%	-54.8%	2088	337	23	-17.9%	-46.5%	1807	296	30	-16.7%	-47.4%	1905	307
Thu	31	32.5%	-30.2%	2120	342	18	-21.7%	-53.8%	1825	299	27	-10.0%	-38.6%	1932	311
Fri	67	114.6%	14.2%	2187	353	18	0.0%	-57.1%	1843	302	28	3.7%	-40.4%	1960	316
Sat	67	-0.6%	-26.8%	2254	364	24	33.3%	-61.3%	1867	306	44	57.1%	-43.6%	2004	323
Sun	39	-41.8%	-43.8%	2293	370	20	-16.67%	-65.5%	1887	309	46.5	5.68%	-35.4%	2051	330
Mon	15	-61.3%	-43.7%	2308	373	10	-50.0%	-61.5%	1897	311	23	-50.5%	-39.5%	2074	334
Tue	14	-9.3%	-48.1%	2322	375	10	0.0%	-64.3%	1907	313	24	4.3%	-33.3%	2098	338
Wed	12	-13.9%	-50.2%	2334	377	10	0.0%	-56.5%	1917	314	20.8	-13.3%	-30.7%	2118	341
Thu	10	-11.9%	-66.9%	2344	379	9	-10.0%	-50.0%	1926	316	16	-23.1%	-40.7%	2134	343
Fri	14	31.7%	-79.7%	2358	381	11	22.2%	-38.9%	1937	318	18	12.5%	-35.7%	2152	346
Sat	24	71.5%	-64.9%	2381	385	11	0.0%	-54.2%	1948	319	28.5	58.3%	-35.2%	2181	351
Sun	20	-15.3%	-49.0%	2401	388						28.8	1.05%	-38.1%	2210	355
Mon	10	-49.7%	-33.8%	2411	390						14.5	-49.7%	-37.0%	2224	357	est
Tue											14	-3.4%	-41.7%	2238	360	proj
				2411	390				1948	319	13	-7.1%	-37.5%	2251	362	proj
											11.5	-11.5%	-28.1%	2263	363	proj
											12.5	8.7%	-30.6%	2275	365	proj
											19.5	56.0%	-31.6%	2295	368	proj
											19.5	0.00%	-32.3%	2314	371	proj
											9.9	-49.2%	-31.7%	2324	373	proj
											9.7	-2.0%	-30.7%	2334	375	proj
											9.2	-5.2%	-29.2%	2343	376	proj
											8.3	-9.8%	-27.8%	2351	377	proj
													2450	2525	390	-404

 

MH still looking good for $390m, $400m possible. its daily market share remains 25% above its showtime share 16%/20% and continues to hold better than -40%

[sgchn40]

Looks like no local film can challenge this for a while?

[Olive]

Minions has so many Ads on TV now, haven't seen any for T5 or MI5.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

It is logical of big family flicks like Minions running some ads on TV I suppose while the target audience for T5 or MI5 don't watch TV often.

Edited August 19, 2015 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Monday and Tuesday BO were both less than 70m; very poor. Market is cooling down in a big way with MH/TMK slowly running out of steam and openers keeping under-performing in the past few weeks.

 

T5 just can't come sooner, save the box office ...

 

Next year CV Day falls on August 9 so we can hope the blackout ends earlier than 2015. In 2016, Dragon Boat Festival is June 9th. So 2016's summer blackout should be middle June to middle August.

[sgchn40]

So Aug will be a slow month y-o-y?

[POTUS 2020]

So Aug will be a slow month y-o-y?

Last year was 2550yen.

Current pace is 3000yen +17.5%. T5 could take it higher

[MinaTakla]

Am expecting big numbers for T5 in China. 100-120m+ USD by the end of its run.

[fmpro]

When does T5 open and how are presales?

[POTUS 2020]

When does T5 open and how are presales?

Sunday. Presales IDK

Anybody, over or under 100m yen OD?

Over or under domestic gross?

 

I say under on both. Didn't do great anywhere else, but then again China is a wild card

[Quigley]

I must admit I'm looking forward to Furious 7's record going down. Will be celebrating for days.

[peludo]

Sunday. Presales IDK

Anybody, over or under 100m yen OD?

Over or under domestic gross?

I say under on both. Didn't do great anywhere else, but then again China is a wild card

I say over. It seems the kind of movie that Chinese audience could like.