China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[zackzack]

I'm hoping The White Storm and The Four II fall on their asses, but even if they do, it's still not a good environment for Gravity and other holdovers. Life of Pi only had to worry about Back to 1942 and The Last Supper on its second weekend—the first of which was a disappointment and the second of which bombed—then had a pretty much clear run until Lost in Thailand came out before its fourth weekend. The local studios noticed this and early December is much more crowded this year.

 

 

Good Box-Office is Impossible for GRAVITY in December. But then again, EP survived THOR2 and GRAVITY.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I doubt The White Storm will flop. It is no Control. TWS is Bona's biggest tent pole of 2013, with big cast (Louis Koo + Sean Lau + Nick Cheung) and big budget (rumored to be around 100M yuan). Saw the trailer twice in theaters, looks should be interesting to general audience. Should open big and play strong.

 

I think TWS might be even bigger than Firestorm, another big budget actioner which also unlikely to flop.

 

No Man Land is a wild cat. Could do medicro (sub 300m, comparing with the hype it's getting) or could be a blockbuster (well above 500m+ or more).

Edited November 26, 2013 by firedeep

[Bob Violence]

Good Box-Office is Impossible for GRAVITY in December. But then again, EP survived THOR2 and GRAVITY.

 

Saying EP survived Gravity seems a bit generous. It didn't come in too far under TDW (10.1m yuan vs. 14.7 Friday-Sunday), but really they both got hit hard by Gravity and CF. EP survived TDW and Red 2 but that's not comparable to what's coming in December.

 

Also I figured out what Lost is, but it's not coming out this weekend. It doesn't have a date yet and they haven't even really started marketing it (no trailer, no theatrical poster), which is why the title didn't ring a bell. I seriously doubt they'll risk a December release, so it'll be a 2014 movie. My big question marks are Rush (2014? Or maybe no release at all?) and Snowpiercer (which Douban is now listing as a January release).

Edited November 26, 2013 by Bob Violence

[A Marvel Fanboy]

What is LOST ?

 

Rush, Snowpiercer and maybe even DM2, all rumored for January release .... successfully replacing Jack Ryan and Hobbit 2, which could have a chance for Jan. Hobbit 2 now goes late Feb. Fate unclear for JR.

 

Olympus Has Fallen, set for 12.29, is rumored to turn into a box office sharing release .... genius way to waste a quota  .

 

CFGC/SARFT seem not keep the promise that all the 34 yearly quota will be released within corresponding calendar year ... (Both Rush and Snow were supposed to come out before 2014.1.1.

Edited November 26, 2013 by firedeep

[Bob Violence]

Lost is this...whatever this is.

 

Wanda put Olympus Has Fallen on the list of November releases they put out at the beginning of the month. I think they had it coming out on the same day as Red 2. They also had it on their lists of August releases, along with March and I think at least one other month. It's the movie that cannot be killed.

[HalloFromGermany]

The box office sharing is complicated. Differs across different distributors and movies and has changed a lot in the past years.

 

At the moment, a close pattern appears to be:

100% box office

5% for Special Funds (for all movies, no exception)

3.3% tax (sales) (for all movies, no exception)

52.27% for theaters and chains (chains get 1~7%, depends; there are now 45 different chains, big or small)

39.43% for distributors and producers (distributors get 5~15% fees, depending on agreements between D/P).

 

As you can see, theaters/chains and distributors/producers are sharing with the ratio of 57/43, after 8.3% funds and taxes.

52.27% = 57% x (1 - 5% - 3.3%)

39.43% = 43% x (1 - 5% - 3.3%)

 

If a distributor happens to be the producer, they get 39.43% of the movie box office. Excludes other expenses, a movie generally needs to make 3x its total budget at the box office to break even, under current Chinese film market situation.

 

Some local distributors/producers ask for lower shares, which can be as low 30%, to encourage theaters give their movies more shows. For example, Huayi lowed their share from 43% to 30% on Young Detective Dee after 4 weeks run.

 

Since the new tax rules national wide that begun on August 1 2013, some theaters need to pay 6.6% taxes, some still 3.3%, depending on their business size. Similar to producers.

 

Above is for local films. for foreign box office sharing films:

100% box office

5% for Special Funds (for all movies, no exception)

3.3% tax (sales) (for all movies, no exception)

52.27% for theaters and chains (chains get 1~7%, depends; there are now 45 different chains, big or small)

25% for producers  (IE. foreign studios, mostly Hollywood big six)

14.43% for distributors (IE, China Film, Huaxia)

 

Co-productions are anothe thing.

 

Money is paid through China Film Import & Export. 

 

See ? The only possible improvement for foreign studios shares comes from CFGC and HXDC, otherwise there is little room to grow. Though both are state-owned distributors, Huaxia is pretty much controlled by CFGC. So eventually it comes to CFGC VS Foreign studios.

 

Question is, are CFGC taking a too high share ? 

 

The 2% proportion dispute between CFGC and Hollywood studios happened earlier this year was due to the new tax rule, which mentioned above.

 

Before the 218 agreement (the one signed by Xi and Biden on 2012, Feb 18), CFGC took share as high as 21~26% from foreign revenue sharing releases. Now they only get 14.43%. Exclude distribution fees, ads expenses, taxes and other enpenses, literally they make no money for distributing foreign box office sharing movies. Under some condictions, they even lose money for doing the distibutions (they can blame their rough operations). That's why earlier CFGC very much wanted Hollywood (foreign) studios to take the 2% taxes caused by China's tax rules in Aug. Of course, they didnt successed since that was considered against WTO rules.

 

Anyway, as a state-owned policy company, making money is not the primary pursuit of CFGC. They are there to oversee the China film market. CFGC import and distribute foreign box office sharing movies because they have to, not really because they want. Here is China's public ownership economy to blame ... so ... Point is CFGC plays a big and unreplacable role in protecting local films industry.

 

Another result of the 218 agreement is that CFGC are becoming ever more keen to produce and co-produce films on their own. They have all the resources, why not .... the market is booming.

 

Back to the ratio. 25% pure share for foreign studios, adding modest 8% distribution fee, equals about 33% for local producers+distributors, not as much as they usually get (39%). But again, they get 39%, because they are local companies.

 

And we can not take the 40~50% share of Hollywood getting from other countries seriously, since that number didnt consider any kind of taxes. Europe countries, for example, collect very high taxes from box office. And many countries, Russia, South Korea, France, etc, have similar funds to China's special funds as a way to protect their own film industry. So actual shares are lower.

 

By my understanding, the problem for Hollywood and foriegn studios in China at the moment is not they are not getting a bigger share of box office. But are:

 

1. There are quota limitations. Only 34 box office sharing films can get through every year, adding another dozens of buyout ones. The quota system is said to be lifted or even canceled post 2015. But again, there will always be censorship .... for SARFT, studios can submit all the movies all they want, how many movies eventually get approved, all depends on SARFT (and maybe studio PR).

 

2. Foreign studios can not distribute movies (freely) in China. As long as they can not distribute films in the Middle Kingdom, they can never become really big and powerful player in the market.

 

It is unclear if someday sino-foreign joint ventures can distribute coproductions in the future. 

 

My thoughts.

Thanks for this information!

I would like to know how this works on an example:

Let's take Escape Plan.

The movie will gross around $40 million in China.

What is the $-share for the US studio (I guess it is Lionsgate) that sold the film to China?

Edited November 26, 2013 by GermanStallion

[Bob Violence]

Escape Plan was a buyout film, not a quota release. There is such a thing as revenue-shared buyouts, but it depends on the particular deal the rightsholder cut with the Chinese distributor. It isn't based on a rigid formula the way quota releases are.

[zackzack]

Thanks for this information!

I would like to know how this works on an example:

Let's take Escape Plan.

The movie will gross around $40 million in China.

What is the $-share for the US studio (I guess it is Lionsgate) that sold the film to China?

 

It's not that simple for some deals. For example, Lionsgate or some studio may get an up-front pre-sale deal

If Lionsgate sold EP to the Chinese for $10M, it is not bad. But if they sold it for $1M they may be banging their head against 

the wall now.

[The Toymaker]

I think The White Storm looks awesome and I will definitely see it. I hope it doesn't bomb. I hope it's another Drug War, which was great. I'm pretty much a Louis Koo fan now.

[Bob Violence]

No doubt that The White Storm has a great cast. The difference between Drug War and The White Storm is that one has Johnnie To and the other has Benny Chan. And Benny Chan movies should be covered somewhere in the Geneva Conventions.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

It's not that simple for some deals. For example, Lionsgate or some studio may get an up-front pre-sale deal

If Lionsgate sold EP to the Chinese for $10M, it is not bad. But if they sold it for $1M they may be banging their head against 

the wall now.

We dont know how much it cost China Film to buy the China release right for EP from the producers (Summit or what). But it of course should be more than $1 million, much more. Not sure about #10m though. Maybe something around $5~10m ... who knows. Good deal for both anyway.

 

Maybe small films with no-name actors can be done for $1m at this day, but big ones like EP ? ...  at least several millions. Expendables 3 was rumored to be sold at $15 million. As long as your film has any one of Schwarzenegger/Stallone/Statham/NicolasCage starring, you would easily find a buyer in China at a good price.

 

It is Catching Fire that seems a bit troublesome. CF probably will do around $27m, just as much as what the first one did. Lionsgate sold the rights of all three sequels (CF, Mockingjay 1 & 2) as a pack to Han Sanping's company. If the deal was any expensive, they probably wouldnt make much. But again, who knows. It is also said that CF is a revenue-shared buyout. That would be better for both.

 

Noted: buyout is not specificly restricted to Chinese releases. Most of films produced in the World are being released in foreign markets through buyout forms. Movies get shopped at different film markets (AFM, the biggest one) and festivals. Only Hollywood big six have distribution networks across the world. Even though sometimes Big Six sell rights to foreign distributors. Co-distribution is more common.

Edited November 26, 2013 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

No doubt that The White Storm has a great cast. The difference between Drug War and The White Storm is that one has Johnnie To and the other has Benny Chan. And Benny Chan movies should be covered somewhere in the Geneva Conventions.

Not a fan of Johnnie To ... Tsui Hark probably is the only Hong Kong director that makes interesting movies to me.

 

Saw only Blind Detective, which annoyed me. 

 

Sure Benny Chan (Who Am I ?) is an average director and no match to Johnnie To but he knows what he is doing when it comes to actions.

[Bob Violence]

Jackie co-directed Who Am I, though. Not to mention that at some point within the last decade Benny apparently decided he was a serious filmmaker and began piling on more and more heavy-handed drama (or DRAMA!!!) that he doesn't know how to handle. The fact The White Storm apparently runs around 135 minutes (come on) does not have me expecting a balls-to-the-wall action film. I will give him this: City Under Siege was so amazingly inept that it went all the way around and became...still inept, but inept in a "what the fuck am I watching" way. It's a movie I would watch while completely blazed if I were into that sort of thing.

Edited November 26, 2013 by Bob Violence

[Olive]

Only Dec movie I want to see is NML.But can't see it st the movies.Wait for BD for all December movies, I won't go to cinema until Hobbit 2.

[zackzack]

Not a fan of Johnnie To ... Tsui Hark probably is the only Hong Kong director that makes interesting movies to me.

 

Saw only Blind Detective, which annoyed me. 

 

Sure Benny Chan (Who Am I ?) is an average director and no match to Johnnie To but he knows what he is doing when it comes to actions.

 

Benny Chan is rather, you know, I don't want to be too direct. But WHO AM I has some of the best Jackie Chan action ever. The movie looks expensive & polished but the story/plotting is one of the worst. 

[Olive]

Gravity 17.5m 254mCF 9.0m 97.5mTues est

[zackzack]

Gravity 17.5m 254mCF 9.0m 97.5mTues est

 

GRAVITY is already $40M in China?

[alee7915]

GRAVITY is already $40M in China?

 yes, darling....

[alee7915]

CHINA: 'Gravity' Puts Out 'Catching Fire' in Head-to-Head Battle

China Box Office 18th-24th November 2013

[#ED]

I haven't been keeping up with China. Someone give me a brief update of what has happened since Pacific Rim.

 

Please.