China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Olive]

If DOS was released on the day Monkey King opened, it may cross 1 billion yuan too.

Presales for Robocop picks up, could hit DOS this weekend.

[Poseidon]

You could exect Spider Man 2 to cross 100m, too, but you can bet it will open against X-Men or Godzilla or maybe even both.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

 My prediction for Robocop is 100m+ OW and winning weekend (not week), or at least $15m+. 30/45/35 seems good. WOM wont be excellent though.

 

About Hobbit 3 release date: 2015 Chinese New Year day falls Feb 19, almost the lastest on record. So Hobbit 3 either gets released around 1.20 or early March. Both case is about similar to current DoS one.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

You could exect Spider Man 2 to cross 100m, too, but you can bet it will open against X-Men or Godzilla or maybe even both.

TASM2 will open in April alone (maybe close to Transcendence date, but definitely not head to head). TASM2, Captain America 2, Transcendence, all will have premieres in China in later Mar and early April with stars Garfield, Emma Stone, Johnson, Depp attending.

 

2014 $100m-ish Hollywood releases I can come up with:

 

TASM 2 ---- April ---- should get close even if doesnot make it

TF3 ---- June 27 ---- $250m+ big nevertheless to say

Godzilla ---- possibly later July or early Aug ---- $100m literally a lock or maybe even 1B RMB if movie is epic

Interstellar ---- Nov (7) ---- should get close even if doesnot make it

 

400m+ is the target for other blockbusters. 300m for rest big releases. 200m for any quoted Hollywood release. And of course, a few quoted films wouldnot even cross 100m RMB.

Edited February 27, 2014 by firedeep

[Olive]

AUJ

Wed 14M---164M

Thur  13M---180M

Fri   13M-----193M

Sat   23M-----215M

Sun  18M----233M

Thur EST

DOS 19M 290M

Frozen 2.6m 258m

[Olive]

Friday showtimes(incomplete)

Robocop 25,593/35% 

DOS 16,256/22.2% 

BLS 9,961/13.6% 

Macau 6,773/9.3% 

Frozen 3,864/5.3% 

Robo midnights look decent so far.

And good news for Hobbit, most theaters still give  IMAX to it instead of Robo.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

It's actually close to 30000 shows for Robocop on Friday. All screening number about 15% higher. Around 90000 shows in total on weekday.

Edited February 28, 2014 by firedeep

[fmpro]

Are Hobbit 2 allready showing weaker legs than the first one?

[Olive]

Robocop is outpacing Smaug by  more than 50% on early shows...

DOS will drop harshly...

[fmpro]

Ouchh.. The first one only stayed flat on friday from thursday..Will the same happen here

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Are Hobbit 2 allready showing weaker legs than the first one?

Relatively, DoS first Thursday is a bit weaker than AUJ. 

 

Ouchh.. The first one only stayed flat on friday from thursday..Will the same happen here

Probably.

[fmpro]

Thanks. Cant wait for tonights numbers

[A Marvel Fanboy]

According to one of the box office observers: Friday, Cop 40m, DoS 16.5m, Frozen 2.8m

 

So yeah even 110m OW for Robocop was underestimated. On other hand, Smaug is totally swept by Robocop. Far worse Friday hold (and legs) than AUJ. $80m is gone if 16.5m is true, Target lows to $75m.

Edited February 28, 2014 by firedeep

[fmpro]

Yeah. Thats horrible for Smaug..Great for Robo though

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Another two sources: 

 

Cop 45m, DoS 19m, Frozen 2.6m; New, 310m, Frozen 261m; 

Cop 42.5m, DoS 17m, Frozen 2.5m; New, 308m, Frozen 261m; 

 

Neither good for DoS.

 

Cop opens excellent, maybe $25m OW.

 

Btw, other cumes to date: BLS 366m, Macau 506m, Monkey 1034m, Ex-file 124m (Macau already crossed 500m, insanest run since Avatar, topping even Inception)

 

In other news, Feb 2014 estimated around box office 3.21B RMB, 2 960 000 shows, 89.1M admissions. First month ever to cross 3B (with just 28 days) !

[fmpro]

Still. 19 mill would mean flat like the first right..And still 50% ahead

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Robocop first 5 days in US/CA: $26,627,042

 

China may reach or close to that number in 3 days.

 

Talking about nuts. 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Still. 19 mill would mean flat like the first right..And still 50% ahead

19m is 35% ahead of 14m. 17m probably is closer, as tracking indicates softer DoS business than Wednesday.

 

Friday to Friday drop: AUJ -62% (36 - 14), DoS -70% or 67% (57 - 17/19), 

[Olive]

Friday est

Robocop  45M new(45+60+50= 155M OW likely)

DOS 19M  310M( a possible 65% 2nd weekend drop)

Frozen 2.6M  261M

[Leyla]

well 70-75 mil is still better than my 40 mil total prediction 

lol you '1 Bil here we come' guys u totally jinxed it! boo