2013 Best Picture Thread

[fishstick]

How's Dan Rad?

 

Saw Blue Jasmine and loved it! So funny and you could actually care about characters. This and TGG are my favorites this year so far. Cate should do more comedy where her caricature hammy acting pays off big time because comedic timing is perfect. Supporting cast was terrific, Hawkins should be shoe-in.

[riczhang]

How's Dan Rad?

 

Abso-fucking-lutely brilliant. He and DeHaan had a ridiculous amount of Chemistry. The Movie's also pretty good. 

[riczhang]

We might've just encountered our Foreign Language Winner. Hungary submitted The Notebook, a WWII film. AMPAS can never resist those films. 

[ChD]

Abso-fucking-lutely brilliant. He and DeHaan had a ridiculous amount of Chemistry. The Movie's also pretty good. 

 

Glad to hear that. Been looking forward for that movie for some time now.

[fishstick]

Abso-fucking-lutely brilliant. He and DeHaan had a ridiculous amount of Chemistry. The Movie's also pretty good. 

 

OMG! Thanks for the input. I hope they get great awards notices.

[riczhang]

I guess the season starts now, seeing as screeners have been sent out. A month earlier than usual. 

[fishstick]

And you'll see all the screeners! Or will talk to people who saw them, right? I want to know all about Gravity, Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle.

[riczhang]

And you'll see all the screeners! Or will talk to people who saw them, right? I want to know all about Gravity, Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle.

 

I'll see what I can do. THey've just started. 

[riczhang]

Current Predictions:

 

86^th Academy Award Nominations

Best Picture:

 

1. Inside Llewyn Davis

2. August: Osage County

3. The Wolf of Wall Street

4. American Hustle

5. The Monuments Men

6. Philomena

7. Gravity

8. Le Passé

9.       All is Lost

10.     Fruitvale Station

 

On the Outside: Blue Jasmine and Before Midnight

 

Best Director:

 

1. Joel and Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis

2. Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street

3.     Asghar Farhadi for Le Passé

4.      John Wells for August : Osage County

5.      J.C. Chandor for All is Lost 

 

On the Outside: Ryan Coogler and Stephen Frears

 

Best Actor:

 

1. Robert Redford for All is Lost

2. Oscar Isaac for Inside Llewyn Davis

3. Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street

4. Michael B. Jordan for Fruitvale Station

5. Colin Firth for The Railway Man

 

On the Outside: Matthew McConaughey and Chiwetel Ejiofor

 

Best Actress:

 

1. Judi Dench for Philomena

2. Meryl Streep for August: Osage County

3. Blanshitto for Blue Jasmine

4. Sandra Bullock for Gravity

5. Botox Bitch for Grace of Monaco

 

On the Outside: Berenice Bejo and Kate Winslet

 

Best Supporting Actor:

 

1. Bruce Dern for Nebraska

2. Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave

3. Steve Coogan for Philomena

4. Bradley Cooper for American Hustle

5. Tim Roth for Grace of Monaco

 

On the Outside: Jared Leto and Tom Hanks

 

Best Supporting Actress:

 

1. Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Stations

2. Julia Roberts for August: Osage County

3. Cameron Diaz for The Counsellor

4. Amy Adams for American Hustle

5. June Squibb for Nebraska

 

On the Outside: Jennifer Lawrence and Margo Martindale

 

Best Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. August: Osage County

2. The Wolf of Wall Street

3. Before Midnight

4. The Monuments Men

5. Philomena

 

On the Outside: Labor Day and 12 Years a Slave

 

Best Original Screenplay:

 

1. Inside Llewyn Davis

2. Le Passé

3. Fruitvale Station

4. American Hustle

5. Blue Jasmine

 

On the Outside: All is Lost and Gravity  

 

 

Quick Run Down: 

 

Picture: Decent re-shuffle from my last set of predictions. Dropped Philomena down a slot because people aren't too impressed by the trailer. I still stand by my prediction though. I debated dropping Monuments Men all the way out of the list or way down. I'm not feeling for the movie and it feels too light and Catch Me If You Can-esque to get in. But, with that being said, so did Argo at this point. However, that could also be its Achilles heel because the Academy won't like to award 2 of the same things consecutively. They dislike having a specific theme. Le Passé, I'm betting big on. It'll be one of those passion movies, and it is SPC. They almost got it with A Separation. I think they can do it this time. I wasn't buying Fruitvale, and I still don't. But considering I'm giving Octavia a win and MBJ a nomination, and considering how its current buzz, I can't justify leaving it out. 

 

Director: Reflective of the new-independent-auteur oriented Director's Branch. I think Llewyn Davis will strike a huge chord with them and so will Le Passé. They passed over Farhadi last time; I don't think they will this time. SPC will ensure that. Especially since DGA only announces with something like 30 hours to spare until AMPAS Voting Deadline. I don't think that there are enough directors who haven't voted at that point to bring AMPAS in line with the guilds. J.C. Chandor, I'm confident in his film. And, I've backed August for well over a year now. I'm not backing down. 

 

Actor: Redford's got this, locked and sealed. And Firth is a gut feeling. 

 

Actress: Dench's got the performance, the film, and the narrative. I think she's winning. But, Goddess Meryl could still steal Dame's wig with her Performance of the Ages in the Role of the Ages. It's her Lion in the Winter and that spells Oscar Gold. Goddess Meryl gets to do it all: be physical, be mental, cry, laugh, and everything you can think of. Blanshitto's film was released too early. Buzz won't survive until the Guilds really start. Remember, since 2000 only Julia Roberts and Marion Cotillard have won in a movie released before September and the Official Start of the season. Cotillard was a special case and Robert's movie was a huge movie both at the awards and at the BO. It made something like close to 300 million dollars and it was Soderbergh's banner year. 2 Director nominations and it hit every major category. Screenplay, Leading, Supporting, Directing, and Picture. Blue Jasmiine, most likely not getting close to that. Picture maybe. Director is unlikely. Maybe if the Critics revive her, but I think not. NYFCC will go Streep. They always do. She could narrate a film on the history of toilets and still win. NSFC and LAFCC will reliably go Exarchopoulos and/or Bejo. And NBR will go to Dench, methinks. She could win at SouthWestern, but that'll probably go to Meryl. I guess she'll have to settle with competing for the Central Ohio Online Critic's Circle win with Nanny. Bullock, because she's a one woman show. And Botox because I couldn't justify putting Bejo in. I don't think the Acting branch will go for her. Nope. Not quite on Legend Riva's level yet. Hopefully, I'm wrong though. 

 

Supporting Actor: I don't think there is much to explain. Life Time Achievement, here we go. 

 

Supporting Actress: I put Octavia at number one for three reaons: 

[*]Piss of Numbers   [*]I refuse to rank Roberts #1 on Principle. I do think she'll win, but the thought of putting #1 beside her name is revolting [*]I like the historical aspect of it. No female Black actress has ever been nominated after a win, and have never won more than once. This would be history making. And it would placate Crone for a while.

Everything else is a shit-show. I put Lawrence and Martingdale in Outside Looking In because I don't think either are strong enough to get in. But, I do have a feeling that there will be a double nomination this year. 

Edited August 10, 2013 by riczhang

[Blankments]

Sorry ric, but after seeing the movie, I don't see how Spencer will even be nominated, let alone win. She was good, yes, but I can't see it being one of the top five (or even eight) supporting actress performances of the year. You also have a noticeable lack of the two contenders I'm rooting for.

[riczhang]

Sorry ric, but after seeing the movie, I don't see how Spencer will even be nominated, let alone win. She was good, yes, but I can't see it being one of the top five (or even eight) supporting actress performances of the year. You also have a noticeable lack of the two contenders I'm rooting for.

 

Foxcatcher is dead. As far as I know, even 2013 is in doubt. And I have no doubt that Spencer will be nominated. She may loose to Roberts, but she is absolutely in. Hers is a quieter performance, but emotionally resonant. That nomination is locked. (and I know it's early to say that, but with Harvey on her side, I do think that term is appropriate)

[Blankments]

Foxcatcher is dead. As far as I know, even 2013 is in doubt. And I have no doubt that Spencer will be nominated. She may loose to Roberts, but she is absolutely in. Hers is a quieter performance, but emotionally resonant. That nomination is locked. (and I know it's early to say that, but with Harvey on her side, I do think that term is appropriate)

 

I wasn't referring to Foxcatcher at all. The two contenders I like are Banks and Mitty. Eh, I don't really see it as a possibility even though it was emotionally resonant. She didn't have that much to do except for the ending and the flashback in the middle.

[riczhang]

I wasn't referring to Foxcatcher at all. The two contenders I like are Banks and Mitty. Eh, I don't really see it as a possibility even though it was emotionally resonant. She didn't have that much to do except for the ending and the flashback in the middle.

 

There's a few scenes. And those are honestly enough. This is supporting, not leading. And those scenes are extremely emotionally resonant, at least amongst everyone else I've talked to. And I'm not big on Banks. Mitty, I don't know what's going on with that. I'm not bullish on that either. 

[The Futurist]

I have a feeling this is gonna be Oscar : Minority Edition Palooza.

[Michael Gary Scott]

Yeah Spencer really doesn't deserve a nom in my opinion I thought Diaz was better than her but she will go ignored

[pieman]

Yeah Spencer really doesn't deserve a nom in my opinion I thought Diaz was better than her but she will go ignored

 

How was The Counselor?

[CoolioD1]

How was The Counselor?

Melonie Diaz, he means.

[Michael Gary Scott]

Yes sorry meant melonie Diaz from Fruitvale Station

[fishstick]

Blanshitto :rofl: ;rfol: That right there is a proof that she is winning.

 

Councelor isn't happening. It's too similar to WoWS and AH which look better and are released later.

 

Jonah Hill is happening.

[Blankments]

There's a few scenes. And those are honestly enough. This is supporting, not leading. And those scenes are extremely emotionally resonant, at least amongst everyone else I've talked to. And I'm not big on Banks. Mitty, I don't know what's going on with that. I'm not bullish on that either. 

 

Banks has a fantastic script, and I have faith that Emma Thompson will give a great performance despite the mediocre director. And I honestly believe Mitty will be this year's Life of Pi and get a lot of noms.

 

And as MGS said, I actually thought Diaz was better than Spencer, but the thing is that if anyone's nominated, Spencer will be nominated just because she's known.