Hong Kong Hong Kong Box Office

[Bluebomb]

5m is locked for LOP, right?

5M is Very likely'

5m for Life of Pi is not assured. 4.5m is but 5m is not because Life of Pi will lose at least 60% of screens to The Hobbit. It could be 75% in some theaters if they schedule both 2D and 3D for The Hobbit and depending on individual theater chains. Ex: Cold War will likely get the nod over Life of Pi in EDKO theaters. December 20 will knock down Life of Pi again despite Christmas weekend. It should lose another round of screens that weekend and could be knocked out completely if Jack Reacher and Breaking Dawn Part 2 remain competitive.

[Bluebomb]

Life of Pi is actually losing showings to My Sassy Hubby which is a surprise. Didn't expect that to happen. Could be close to 70% screen loss for Life of Pi now since My Sassy Hubby is getting the last 7 PM showtime over it at 2 theater chains which is weird. I definitely don't understand the rationale on that one. Will check again tomorrow to see if UA reflects this or gives Life of Pi the last 7 PM showtime.

Monday admissions

My Sassy Hubby actually increased from Thursday and built a bigger gap between itself and Life of Pi. Life of Pi fell 28% from last Monday.

[Bluebomb]

The Hobbit will take up 3-4 screens this weekend while Life of Pi, My Sassy Hubby, Cold War, Back to 1942 and other extraneous films will share the remaining 1-2 screens. Full schedules will be up later.

[Bluebomb]

December 6 Weekend Actuals

1. Life of Pi - $4,044,322

2. My Sassy Hubby - $413,705/$417,376 (weekend actual)

3. Cold War - $5,300,082

4. Back to 1942 - $159,616 (weekend actual)

5. Seal Team Six: The Raid on Osama Bin Laden (Code Name Geronimo) - $65,895 (weekend actual)

Others

Skyfall - $4,759,979

Red Dawn - $180,987

Rise of the Guardians - $307,267

Love in Time - $273,602

Killing Them Softly - $124,117

Life of Pi and My Sassy Hubby were adjusted up from estimates. Despite the upward adjustment for Life of Pi, 5m is still uncertain. My Sassy Hubby had a very good weekend. Cold War slid about 52% from last weekend. 5.5m is up in the air. Back to 1942 posted a decent gross. Seal Team 6 struck out.

Skyfall will hit 4.8m before leaving theaters.

[Olive]

The Hobbit seems to have much more expensive tickets!

[Bluebomb]

The Hobbit seems to have much more expensive tickets!

Did you see this post?

Ticket prices for The Hobbit have been set and in 3D, one ticket is $30-$60 HKD more than a regular-priced 3D ticket.For example, at Broadway's Palace IFC (the most expensive theater in HK),

Movies	Theater	Ticket Prices (HKD)	Ticket Prices (USD)
The Hobbit Avatar The Avengers Life of Pi (regular)	Palace IFC	$180 $150 $135 $120	$23 $19 $17.50 $15.50

there's a $4 difference from Avatar, $5.50 from Avengers and $7.50 difference from Life of Pi and regular 3D movies like Rise of the Guardians. At cheaper theaters, the difference is not as big but one ticket is still $2-$3 more expensive than a ticket to see The Avengers. Hobbit is seeing a $20-$35 HK increase at UA theaters. Not as outrageous but still a family of four would have to pay about $400.But one thing that these crazy ticket prices means is that it ensures The Hobbit passes 10m. It should also become the #1 film of the year. Honestly, if The Hobbit doesn't beat The Avengers with these ticket prices, it will be a disappointment in my eyes. 15m is possible.

 

 

 

[Olive]

That's so expensive!When will you go to see it? Bluebomb

[Bluebomb]

That's so expensive!When will you go to see it? Bluebomb

Probably not in theaters. It's too expensive. Even regular 3D (non-HFR 3D) is the same price as HFR 3D. Crazy.I think this is why it's having really poor pre-sales so far. I'm surprised at how lackluster the ticket sales have been but pricing could be a factor. People don't want to pay $30-$60 HK more for a movie. Edited December 11, 2012 by Bluebomb

[Olive]

So this may affect its BO?

Edited December 11, 2012 by Olive

[Bluebomb]

So this may affect its BO?

Yes. My guess is people will decide when they're walking up to the theater. People will want to see the latest blockbuster but will they pay extra to see it in regular 3D (or even HFR 3D?)? We'll know more on Thursday but it's not looking good right now. Still, The Hobbit has a huge advantage with these ticket prices and there's going to be a wave of people who will not care about the price. There could be the slight issue of the prequel stigma as well. TASM had it. I won't be surprised if this has it.Mainlander effect may happen here with it delayed until February in China. Will need to monitor this more closely.

[Bluebomb]

Thursday schedules

Pacific Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 15 showings	Back to 1942 - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Code Name Geronimo
	Jan Dara: The Beginning - 1 showing (▼ 2)	Iron Sky
	Killing Them Softly - 1 showing (▼ 3)	Red Dawn
	Life of Pi 3D - 4 showings (▼ 6)
	Rise of the Guardians (3D Eng.) - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	Cold War - 2 showings (▼ 4)
	Skyfall - 1 showing (▼ 4)

Palace APM
New	Holdovers	Leaving
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 17 showings	My Sassy Hubby - 7 showings (▼ 12)	The Unbelievable 2: Channeling the Spirits
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 1 showing	Rurouni Kenshin - 1 showing (▼ 4)	Jan Dara: The Beginning
	Life of Pi 3D - 6 showings (-)	Life of Pi
	Cold War - 4 showings (▼ 7)	Love in Time
		Skyfall

Festival Walk
New	Holdovers	Leaving
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 15 showings	My Sassy Hubby - 4 showings (▼ 6)	Caught in the Web
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 4 showings	Back to 1942 - 3 showings (▼ 5)	Code Name Geronimo
	Killing Them Softly - 1 showing (-)	Iron Sky
	Life of Pi 3D - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Red Dawn
	Rise of the Guardians (3D Eng.) - 1 showing (-)	Life of Pi
	Argo - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	Cold War - 2 showings (▼ 6)
	Skyfall - 1 showing (▼ 2)

Cityplaza
New	Holdovers	Leaving
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 11 showings	My Sassy Hubby - 3 showings (▼ 5)	Rurouni Kenshin
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 3 showings	Back to 1942 - 4 showings (▼ 5)	Killing Them Softly
	Life of Pi 3D - 5 showings (-)	Happiness Never Comes Alone
	Cold War - 1 showing (▼ 3)	Skyfall

The Hobbit doesn't make it to the 20 showings benchmark. Its extremely long runtime may have something to do with that. It'll make over 2m at least with these types of showtimes and ticket prices. 3-3.5m will depend on how well it does with walk-ups. My Sassy Hubby is the big winner this week. It not only supplanted Life of Pi to get the remaining 7 PM showtime this week but theaters have also given it more showtimes over Life of Pi. The biggest losers are Code Name Geronimo, Rurouni Kenshin, Killing Them Softly and Skyfall. All of them are getting squashed in at least 40% of theaters.

Now, introducing HFR 3D...

Langham Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey HFR 3D - 6 showings	My Sassy Hubby - 7 showings (▼ 10)	A Ghost of A Chance
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 10 showings	Back to 1942 - 4 showings (▼ 5)	The Unbelievable 2: Channeling the Spirits
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 2 showings	Code Name Geronimo - 2 showings (▼ 4)	Red Dawn
	Life of Pi 3D - 5 showings (▼ 7)	Love in Time
	Cold War - 2 showings (▼ 4)	Sinister
		Skyfall

HFR won't get a lot of showtimes because it's being marketed as a special promotion. It's new and people might not want to see it so the majority of showings will still go to the regular 3D version. Theaters want to give viewers the chance to see it in regular 3D if they wish. That's why only a handful of theaters have picked up the HFR version even though 90% of HK theaters are digital. All of them can play HFR but they would rather stick with the known than the unknown.

Pre-sales for The Hobbit are depressing. They are worse than TASM and every other blockbuster that has come out in the past couple of years. Reasons could be several including high ticket prices, prequel factor, big November and big competition next weekend. The Hobbit remains the biggest threat to everyone but there will be something for everyone next weekend when a chick flick, action movie, cartoon, movie musical and Chinese action movie all come out. Also, let us not forget that November 2012 is the only November in all of history to gross more than 2m total every weekend and it broke the biggest November weekend twice in the same month. It's also the biggest November on record with almost 12.5m in the piggy bank. Moviegoers might not be as willing to part with their cash after watching Skyfall, Cold War and Life of Pi last month.

 

[Bluebomb]

The Hobbit is looking at 30,000-35,000 admissions on opening day.

[Fake]

The Hobbit is looking at 30,000-35,000 admissions on opening day.

How does that compare to ROTK and how much for the entire weekend?

[Olive]

8,766 first day presale tickets, absolutely disaterLess than Pi, half of Pi?

[Bluebomb]

8,766 first day presale tickets, absolutely disaterLess than Pi, half of Pi?

Not a disaster.

[Fake]

8,766 first day presale tickets, absolutely disaterLess than Pi, half of Pi?

Half of Pi?

[Olive]

Any excuse?

[Bluebomb]

Half of Pi?

It's going to make more than Life of Pi. Don't worry.

Any excuse?

I can think of several. Very long runtime, very high ticket prices (don't forget that HK has one of the highest prices for The Hobbit), Christmas. It's not a terrible thing that The Hobbit won't have one of the biggest opening days of all time. It still has a lot of time to make money.

How does that compare to ROTK and how much for the entire weekend?

No data for ROTK. I will get to that later.

[Bluebomb]

And so it begins...

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		December 13
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	--	8,719	--
2	Life of Pi	3,486	1,547	-55.6%
3	My Sassy Hubby	2,016	1,267	-37.2%
4	Back to 1942	990	382	-61.4%
5	Cold War	1,048	350	-66.6%

The low start isn't an encouraging sign for The Hobbit, however, it still has very high ticket prices to offset any low admissions. I'm not too worried about the slightly disappointing admissions just yet.

Not a great hold for Life of Pi. It will fall about 55-60% for the day. It'll drop even harder this weekend. My Sassy Hubby had a good hold and could fall about 45% today. Back to 1942 and Cold War had poor holds although it is notable that Back to 1942 held a bit better than Cold War.

 

[Bluebomb]

Ok, so after a few more hours of seeing where The Hobbit will finish on Thursday, I think I can confidently predict what will happen this weekend.

Thu: $300,000 (25,000 admissions)

Fri: $450,000 (+50%)

Sat: $950,000 (+111%)

Sun: $850,000 (-11%)

Total: $2,550,000 (+45% from ROTK's 7-day week)

The Hobbit should start off lower on Thursday but will pick up on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Saturday should see an enormous jump over 100% and weekend pre-sales are backing this scenario.

Christmas weekend should see a very strong hold, still in the 2m+ range.