YM!

Don't get why people have Smurfs over 100m even with Rhianna, they haven't been relevant in a minute.

I’m a bit iffy on a week back only because it puts it a bit close to Jurassic to my likings but yeah. Think Disney needs to learn to be okay with blinking slightly with this one. If Beyond manages to be ready and take 6/27, I’d honestly do pre-Memorial Day weekend.

Going to also guess what rounds up the potential scale of what could make the top ten: Captain America: Brave New World - Feels like a number between Cap1 (~175m) and Shang-Chi (~225m) is right for it providing solid reception. Think the angle of Hulk shenanigans is an interesting sell but whilst Falcon doesn’t get same level of fandom vitriol from bigots (I mean it’ll still be there but probably more subdued) like when a girl enters the MCU, I don’t think he’s a kickstarter. There’s another potential issue but I want to wait a few months when the trailer drops to see if it pans out. Coogler’s new movie. Feels more like a Creed at the box office than a Black Panther but I think it could really surprise us. Snow White - The Snow White IP though belonging to a big name doesn’t feel much like a kickstarter and feels like it’ll end up on lower Disney remakes but I think mid 100s can happen due to lack of female appealing films Q1. Thunderbolts* - Personally feels like the weakest of the Marvel projects this year but has a pretty decent thirst for action films during the lead up. Feeling mid 100s again for it, but if The Bear crew manages to make something great - I’ll go a bit higher. Elio - Though I think IO2 will be a hit and Pixar has the least hurdles of all the Disney brands, I hate the spot for it as it’ll face competition it’s not ready to handle especially as sci-fi animation but can work as there’s lack of family films this summer until Bad Guys 2. Kendrick Musical - I think the pitch on paper sounds funny and Kendrick is a huge star, think it could be a potential sweeper given the dearth of comedies (Naked Gun remake too but I feel a bit more optimistic on Kendrick) The Bad Guys 2 - Though I don’t think it’ll break records with Universal’s strong marketing department and a beloved first, I could see a decent sized jump for this one. FNAF2 - Dislike the first one with a passion, it worked with its target audience as video game movies are the new live action remakes, copy the source fill with references watch box office explode. The Bride - Think the concept itself feels of interest and could be surprise. Wicked Part 2 - I said my piece on reception to Wicked 1 will determine this one’s performance as most of the good stuff in the musical happens in the first act. Did not include Fast Eleven and Blade because I think those movies are 2026.

Depending on how IO2/Moana 2 does, Zootopia can do it. Minecraft and Michael also seem like plausible candidates.

Did you know Infinity War had its first trailer about five months before release?

I have Wicked 1 blowing up and then Wicked 2 peterring off mainly because the great stuff people love in the musical happens in Part One.

I think Dog Man has potential to be the biggest of the January-February family films due to the book’s popularity.

Which is Grilled cheese?

Avatar 3 - $155m/$625m Minecraft - $130m/$415m Jurassic City - $145m/$400m Zootopia 2 - $100m five day/$370m Superman - $125m/$335m Passion 2 🤢 - $135m/$300m Michael - $95m/$280m How to Train Your Dragon - $75m/$250m Fantastic Four - $85m/$240m Mission Impossible 8 - $70m/$215m Behold my way too early top ten

Screw it, it’s been about a year since the 2024 one dropped, why not start early for 2025. Below is the calendar: https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/upcoming/2025

True but is FNAF a bigger brand than Marvel? I’m not saying that there’s not a budget difference but like both appeal to a similar audience. My point for the former is that while I do think a marketing campaign would’ve helped The Marvels from bombing as bad (probably moreso along the lines of Aquaman 2/Eternals), I can’t chalk up to just the performance as it solely being the strikes. The legs also fell apart and never really recovered.

Though I agree The Marvels was a death of a thousand cuts and strikes did effect it, FNAF opened to 80m two weeks prior which aimed for a similar demographic and a smaller fanbase than the Marvel brand. And on top of that both Hunger Games and Aquaman were able to pull it together.

I think it’s fair to think BNW behaves more like another Phase 1-2 origin than a Cap sequel less so because of The Marvels bombing and more so due it being Sam’s first lead movie. Same goes for Thunderbolts and Yelena. That said, I think BNW has some aces up its sleeves with the Hulk concept as a way to breathe new life and could benefit from BHM. However, think quality is going to be the make or break for it.

It’s almost like the Ninja Turtles brand is pretty big in merchandise but the Ninja Turtles toys being popular for kids doesn’t make sense? Who would want fun ninja toys and masks and costumes?