TylerDurden365

Reserved

Reserved

Best Picture: 1- La La Land 2- Moonlight 3- Manchester by the Sea 4- Hidden Figures 5- Lion 6- Arrival 7- Fences 8- Hacksaw Ridge 9- Hell or High Water Best Director: 1- Damian Chazelle for La La Land 2- Berry Jenkins for Moonlight 3- Kenneth Lonegran for Manchester by the Sea 4- Denis Villenevue for Arrival 5- Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge Best Actor: 1- Denzel Washington for Fences 2- Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea 3- Ryan Gosling for La La Land 4- Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge 5- Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic Best Actress: 1- Emma Stone for La La Land 2- Isabelle Huppert for Elle 3- Natalie Portman for Jackie 4- Ruth Negga for Loving 5- Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins Best Supporting Actor: 1- Mahershala Ali for Moonlight 2- Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals 3- Dev Patel for Lion 4- Jeff Bridges for Hell Or High Water 5- Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea Best Supporting Actress: 1- Viola Davis for Fences 2- Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea 3- Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures 4- Namoie Harris for Moonlight 5- Nicole Kidman for Lion Best Original Screenplay: 1- La La Land 2- Manchester by the Sea 3- Hell or High Water 4- 20th Century Women 5- The Lobster Best Adapted Screenplay: 1- Moonlight 2- Hidden Figures 3- Fences 4- Arrival 5- Lion Best Film Editing: 1- La La Land 2- Moonlight 3- Arrival 4- Hacksaw Ridge 5- Hell or High Water Best Cinematography: 1- La La Land 2- Moonlight 3- Arrival 4- Silence 5- Lion Best Production Design: 1- La La Land 2- Arrival 3- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 4- Hail, Caesar! 5- Passengers Best Costumes: 1- Jackie 2- La La Land 3- Allied 4- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 5- Florence Foster Jenkins Best Makeup: 1- Star Trek Beyond 2- Suicide Squad 3- A Man Called Ove Best Visual Effects: 1- The Jungle Book 2- Doctor Strange 3- Kubo and the Two Strings 4- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 5- Deepwater Horizon Best Sound: 1- La La Land 2- Hacksaw Ridge 3- Arrival 4- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 5- 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi Best Sound Editing: 1- La La Land 2- Hacksaw Ridge 3- Arrival 4- Deepwater Horizon 5- Sully Best Score: 1- La La Land 2- Moonlight 3- Jackie 4- Lion 5- Passengers Best Song: 1- "City of Stars" from La La Land 2- "How Far I'll Go" from Moana 3- "Audition" from La La Land 4- "Can't Stop the Feeling!" from Trolls 5- "The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story Best Animated Feature: 1- Zootopia 2- Kubo and the Two Strings 3- Moana 4- My Life as a Zucchini 5- The Red Turtle Best Foreign Language film: 1- The Salesman 2- Toni Erdmann 3- A Man Called Ove 4- Land of Mine 5- Tanna Best Documentary Feature: 1- O.J.: Made in America 2- 13th 3- I am Not Your Negro 4- Fire at Sea 5- Life, Animated Best Documentary Short: 1- Joe's Violin 2- Extremis 3- The White Helmet 4- Watani: My Homeland 5- 4.1 Miles Best Animated Short: 1- Piper 2- Blind Vaysha 3- Borrowed Time 4- Pear Cider and Cigarettes 5- Pearl Best Live Action Short: 1- Ennemis Inteieurs 2- Timecode 3- La Femme et le TGV 4- Silent Nights 5- Sing

Not 100% on this, but I know that Regal was doing a Film Festival of the Best Picture noms but they weren't showing all the movies on all the days. So those may have been the days they were showing Hacksaw and the drops were the days it was off the schedule.

I mean, I hate to be the hair splitter, but 50SD is a romance-drama budgeted at 55 million and rated R. That's the definition of mid-budget adult-aimed drama. You can hate the movie and think it's terrible, but that doesn't make it a different TYPE of movie. You can say you want "Good" versions of that type of movie, but I long ago learned not to try and foist my definition of taste as definitive. People dig what they dig, and studios make the movies that make money. This is the version of that type of movie that makes money (based on a pre-existing property, female-skewing [because women like to go to movies too and have stuff that isn't just dudes getting shot in the face]). And hey, if you want a version that might be more your boat, Hidden Figures and La La Land's runs say what up.

I'm with Baumer. 50SD is going to do around 400-450 WW off a 55 production budget. Universal is doing backflips at that profit margin, just like they did when they dropped the first one. Somewhat related note: all those think pieces about how we never get mid-range stuff for adults anymore? We had two dropped this weekend and both are going to be very successful for their studios (50SD and JW2)

Just to throw out an alternate viewpoint on why the number came in at 120: Perhaps people who hadn't done pre-sale tickets were deterred from coming out. They felt that all the shows would be super crowded and they could get out Saturday/Sunday after the opening day crazies had dissipated. I'm going to say it's about 15% bump today from non-preview Friday (which seems like it's become pretty standard for most of these tentpoles), so about 73, maybe 75 if it bumps big with families. And ultimately, this is all just insanity in terms of numbers so let's just enjoy the ride, ya?

Pure speculation but it was likely a combo of: 1) wanting to retire; 2) Disney offering 4 BILLION dollars; 3) Disney wanting to make sure that they had full creative control over where the franchise went in the future.

That number is ridiculous, but it looks like the spillover is helping everything including the holdovers. So everyone wins this weekend.

I don't know, I always figured the rough floor for IO was like 70-75 (in line with the adjusted numbers for Wall-E/Up). I certainly never saw anything below 65 (Brave/Cars 2 level). With the preview numbers, I'd say something between 75-85 is a safe bet, with 90-95 possible (Incredibles kind of success). For the record, though, JW will still probably win the weekend by coming in somewhere between 95-100 depending on the Father's Day hold.

To attempt to move the conversation back to numbers, I'd say the 2.7 for digital previews is good. Interstellar is going to suffer from the fact that, due to its length, it will be hard for theaters to get in a ton of showings. I know that at my local theater last night Big Hero 6 had around 5 or 6 preview screenings while Interstellar only had 4. Still, all around these are good numbers to start with and I'm excited to see a weekend that delivers on its promise for both openers.

1) Will November Man drop more than 35% on Thursday? No 2) Will Above So Below open to more than 15 MILLION? No 3) Will GOTG be number one? Yes 4) Will both GOTG and Turtles increase for the 4 day? Yes 5) Will more than 5 films drop less than 10%? Yes 6) Will Turtles have a Sat increase of more than 58%? Yes 7) Will any film make more than 18 mill for the 4 day? Yes 8) Will any film increase more than 10% on Sunday? Yes 9) Will more than 2 films decrease on Sunday? No 10) Will Turtles fall less than 5% on Monday? No 11) Will Into the Storm finish higher than Lucy? No 12) Will Expendables make more than Sin City? Yes 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in slots: 4 As Above, So Below 5 The November Man 8 When the Game Stood Tall 9 The Hundred Foot Journey 11 Sin City 2 12 Lucy 2000 each bonus of 10,000 if all 6 correct No individual bonus this week as I will have enough to calculate. MAKE UP QUESTIONS All questions also pertain to the 3 day unless otherwise specified. The first 6 questions will be worth 1000 points, the last 7 will be worth 2000 1) Will Turtles finish in second? Yes 2) Will GOTG make more for its three day than Turtles does for the 4 day? No 3) Will Above/So Below open to more than 5 mill on Friday? No 4) Will any film fall less than 3% on Thurs? Yes 5) Will November Man make more than 12 million for the 5 day? Yes 6) Will Expendables open to more than 20 million in China? Yes 7) Will Expendables 3 fall less than 35%? No 8) Will If I Stay increase more than 80% on Friday? Yes 9) Will any film increase more than 145% on Friday? Yes 10) Will any film increase more than 60% on Saturday? Yes 11) Will any film increase more than 10% on Sunday? Yes 12) Will Let's Be Cops fall less than 20% for the three day? Yes 13) Will Sin City be in the top 10? No 10/13 3000 11/13 5000 12/13 7000 13/13 10,000 Bonus: What will GOTG gross for the 4 day? 7000 21.586

1) Will any new release make more than 20 mill? No 2) Will GOTG or TMNT finish first? No 3) Will Expendables 3 drop more than 55%? Yes 4) Will Let's Be Cops fall more than 45%? No 5) Will When The Game Stands Tall open to more than 12 million? No 6) Will If I Stay increase more than 11% on Saturday? No 7) Will any film increase more than 8.5% on Thursday? No 8) Will any film increase less than 55% on Friday? No 9) Will any film increase more than 60% on Saturday? Yes 10) Will Expendables 3 open to more than 20 million in China? Yes 11) Will GOTG drop less than 39%? No 12) Will One Hundred Foot Journey make more than Into the Storrm? Yes 13) Will Giver increase more than 65% on Friday? No 14) Will any new release have a preview number of more than 1 million? Yes 12/14 3000 13/14 5000 14/14 8000 What finishes is spots 2 Guardians of the Galaxy 4 Sin City: A Dame to Kill For 5 When the Game Stands Tall 6 Let's Be Cops 7 The Expendables 3 2000 each and 3000 bonus for all five right. Bonus 1: What will GOTG gross on Saturday? 5000 Bonus 2: What will Turtles gross on Saturday? 5000 Bonus 3: What will Expendables gross on Thursday? 5000 Individuals: Those of you who have not had them yet, can choose ONE of the three sets of questions below. Set 1: Will If I Stay open to more than 15 million? Yes Will Lucy fall more than 40%? Yes Will The Giver fall more than 45%? Yes

I guess I don't understand the need for the back and forth on respective quality. I mean, I can identify why I didn't enjoy Turtles and the issues I have with it on a storytelling level. But it's making money because a certain audience has responded to it. On the flip side I could rattle off why I thought GOTG was awesome, but I thought Scott Pilgrim was equally awesome and that made no money so clearly my opinion is not some be-all end-all powerful force that makes things a hit. Let us all just be happy that there are movies doing well at the back end of this summer because otherwise everything has underperformed.

Will GOTG drop less than 7.5% on Labour Day weekend (3 day only)? Abstain Will GOTG pass Transformers before LD weekend? (so counting August 28th numbers) No Will GOTG have a drop of less than 35% in the next two weekends? Abstain Will GOTG have a Thursday drop of less than 7.5% in the next two weeks? Yes Will GOTG have a worldwide gross of more than 450 million by the end of the game (only Sunday estimates will count, so in other words, LD Monday is not part of this equation).? Yes