Juby
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Posts posted by Juby
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Deadline today:
"Everyone is waiting for Warner Bros. The Batman and many sources tell me it’s bound easily for a $100M+ opening, in fact $115M+, and the advance ticket sales are there to prove that. This despite the 3-hour running time, and from what I hear (I haven’t seen it yet) is a more noir, detective story by Matt Reeves than all the action set pieces in a Christopher Nolan movie. iSpot shows Warner Bros. having spent already $28M+ in U.S. TV spots (that’s even a big number from that data agency’s POV) across such shows as the Winter Olympics, NFL, Good Morning America, NBA games and Big Brother: Celebrity Edition. Note, Warners’ hasn’t weighed in on these industry projections at the time of writing, but note, they’ll safely lowball. That said, no one sees it below $100M."
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It's not the good time for social media reactions. I know in USA people might care about them, but many countries lives right now only one subject and won't care if the new Batman movie is good or not. Let's wait till Feb 28th when the situation calm down little bit (I hope).
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Another change in the last Long Range Forecast for The Batman:
3/4/2022 The Batman $130,000,000 – $170,000,000 -10% $330,000,000 – $475,000,000 -9% TBD xx Warner Bros. Pictures -
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Your predictions are still way too optimistic for me. BP2 won't increase overseas. OS-C over $540m for BP:WF will be a huge surprise, especially against so strong competition: The Flash, Aquaman and the Lost City and "Avatar 2". Domestic will also drop significantly. First BP was the first major blockbuster of 2018 and the last MCU-film before highly-anticipated Infinity War, BP2 will be 8th(!) superhero film of 2022 and one of the 3 big films with underwater action (if it is really Namor debut ?). Don't be shocked if BP2 finish under $450m domestic.
1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:Ragnarok Will be lucky to make 500 Dom
Thor: Ragnarok did $315m domestic. :P The sequel of the best recieved Thor film + one of the direct sequels to Endgame + Thor and Guardians team-up = Love & Thunder definitely have potential for +$400m domestic, but even this isn't locked.
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The Polish government has just announced dropping of almost all restrictions for cinemas (March 1st). Cinemas can again sell tickets for
30%100% seats and food/drinks for screenings. The only restriction will be wearing mask.
Great news for The Batman.
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17 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:
BP has the advantage on the domestic side.
BP - 1.4B
DS - 1.3 - 1.35B
TH4 - 1.15B
There's no chance BP2 will increase over the first one. Domestically it will drop as every sequel to a smashing superhero hit (Superman II, Batman Returns, Spider-Man 2, Age of Ultron, Deadpool 2) as well as overseas. The first Black Panther OS-C was "only" $542m. It was #1 movie of the year only in U.S. and some African markets. Everywhere else people wanted to see it mostly because it was the last MCU movie before Infinity War and it wasn't availble on streaming/DVD/Blu-ray/UHD befere Avengers realease. I'm still not sure if BP2 will join the billion-dollar-club ww.
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Presumably...
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TDKR was before covid (some markets still has 25/33/50% capacity limits in theaters) and was a sequel to goddamn TDK (1bn worldwide)! BvS four years later made 447.5m OS-C with higher tickets prices and 3D. JL (the last movie with Batman) ended with less than $323m OS-C +4 years ago. Anything over F9 OS-C for The Batman in those weird times will be a victory for WB.
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On 2/20/2022 at 1:04 PM, MG10 said:
Well that would be quite bad 😅
In the last 2 years, only 2 movies surpassed $400m overseas without China: No Way Home ($1.06bn) and No Time to Die ($549m). Batman has naver been as popular as Spidey or Bond outsite U.S.. Even F9 (one of the strongest franchise OS) made only $336m without China. Anything over $400m OS-China for The Batman will be a huge win.
On 2/20/2022 at 2:44 AM, charlie Jatinder said:$130M is the bare minimum it shall do.
I hope You're right. <fingers crossed>
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7 hours ago, Dragoncaine said:
I'm seeing this in 9 days. I am more than comfortable skipping this trailer and I'm sure I'm not the only one lol
I haven't seen any trailer since the very first teaser in August 2020. :) I try to avoid as much as possible to see this "old way" (pre-Internet). And I am Batman fan since 1997, this is the most anticipated movie of the year for me, so it's been extremely hard year and a half. Thanks God the wait is over next Friday (I'll see the film on March 4th, 2:30 p.m. GTM+1).
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On 2/21/2022 at 9:31 AM, Shanks said:
Oh, Corrected.
Still wrong -
28 minutes ago, Shanks said:
Reality:
No Way Home - 780m+
No Way Home - $573m (in 2021)
Avatar 2 prediction is also only for 15 days of 2022.
48 minutes ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:Hmmm… How good were they at predicting before this?
the-numbers has always been overcautious in their... well, numbers.
I think Mr. Nash will be very surprised when The Batman hits theaters.
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Bruce Nash's (the-numebrs.com) predictions for 2022:
🤔
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Updated Long Range Forecast:
3/4/2022 The Batman $135,000,000 – $175,000,000 -2% $340,000,000 – $490,000,000 -6% 4,300 Warner Bros. Pictures -
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For me:
1. Batman Begins
2. The Dark Knight
3. Batman (1989)
4. Batman Returns
5. Batman: Mask of the Phantasm
6. The Dark Knight Rises
7. The LEGO Batman Movie
8. Batman Forever
9. Batman & Robin
10. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (Ultimate Edition is better version of this sh**y film)
11. Batman: The Movie (1966) - I'm not a fan of this camp version although I love Adam West as Batman
The best SH films are Begins, TDK and Infinity War.
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My 2022 Summer forecast:
1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Opening weekend: $181 million / Domestic: $442 million
2. Thor: Love & Thunder
Opening weekend: $155 million / Domestic: $430 million
3. Jurassic World: Dominion
Opening weekend: $121 million / Domestic: $339 million
4. Lightyear
Opening weekend: $91 million / Domestic: $325 million
5. Minions 2: The Rise of Gru
Opening weekend: $70 million / Domestic: $208 million
6. Top Gun: Maverick
Opening weekend: $75 million / Domestic: $203 million
7. Black Adam
Opening weekend: $64 million / Domestic: $185 million
8. Nope
Opening weekend: $65 million / Domestic: $165 million
I've no idea what might be 9th and 10th. Maybe this Elvis movie? Idk, I don't see any +100 million this summer.
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17 hours ago, Saul Goodman said:
BvS hype was easily the highest ever for a DC movie and it did that much. Not to forget The Trinity being on live action for the first time. The Batman isn't even close to it.
I remember it completely differently. The hype for the film get smaller and smaller when Snyder added to it Wonder Woman, Aquaman, Cyborg and The Flash, and even smaller when they push it to May 2016 just tu change it again for March 2016. Marketing was also not-so-good, every poster/trailer was released one day / a few days before or after trailers /posters to Civil War / The Force Awakens. TDK and TDKR were easily the most anticipated movies of their seasons, BvS was maybe the third.
I think the hype for The Batman is one of the biggest for the DC film ever and the marketing is a waaaaay better than BvS.
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Great news!
TDKR was 10 years ago, without 3D and released the very same day as The Amazing Spider-Man in China. I believe The Batman can beat TDKR during its opening weekend.
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25 minutes ago, Caesar said:
It had all the big DC Superheroes together for the first time on the big screen and couldn't even get past $100 million OW.
The Batman is just one of those superheroes coming off two bad films in a row, so it stands to reason that this would suggest a sub $100 million OW. If it manages to over perform and either hit or go over $100 million OW then that's a success.
JL floped because of many reasons and none of them was Batman. Joker did great and was just 3 years after Jared Leto in Suicide Squad << people knew it's something new without any connection to the "DCEU". The same happens with the new Batman. If You want to compare The Batman with BvS and JL than You should consider one thing - the hype for The Batman is bigger than for any of 'em.
People underestimate / underpredicted TDK in 2007-2008. Don't be like those folks, don't underestimate another Batman, cause...
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9 minutes ago, Caesar said:
I mean it's basically TDK but longer and with a trash bag wearing Riddler taking Joker's place from what I've seen.
I've seen only the first teaser trailer and it looks compleatly different from any Batman film so far.
10 minutes ago, Caesar said:Joker did a $96 million OW so I agree that it's a good comparison.
With who do You agree with? Joker did it with lower ATP. without 3D, 2,5 years ago. The Batman will be over $96M on Saturday. It is not good comparison.
12 minutes ago, Caesar said:Batman v Superman was a Batman film, if I had to watch the Wayne's die again during it (complete with Thomas Wayne throwing a punch for some reason) then it's a Batman film.
Majority of the film took place outside Gotham City, except Batman and Alfred there are no Batman characters in it, there's also zero Batman villains. But even if we consider BvS as a "Batman film" - it was 6 years ago (like SR 7 years before MoS), it's enough time to forget about it. But even if not x2 BvS isn't as hated film as B&R was before BB release. I remind You that BvS had $166M OW.
7 minutes ago, Caesar said:They're not making over $100 million on OW though.
It (2017) says hi.
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46 minutes ago, Caesar said:
It was a big deal at the time because it was advertised using Nolan's name (at the height of his popularity), plus it looked like it was going to do something new and different with Superman.
The Batman also looks like it's going to do something new and different with Batman character (true detective story that many fans were waiting for for years).
46 minutes ago, Caesar said:The Batman is the second reboot of Batman in 6 years after the first reboot crashed and burned.
Civil War/Homecoming were only 2-3 years after the TASM2 - the least successful Spider-Man live-action movie! Besides, Batffleck in DCEU never got his own film. The Batman will be the first BATMAN MOVIE since TDKR (almost 10 years). MoS was the first Superman movie since SR (7 years).
46 minutes ago, Caesar said:The fourth actress to be a live action movie Catwoman in the past 30 years. The sixth actor to be a live action movie Batman in the past 30 years.
Phoenix was the third actor to play Joker in 11 years. Do you remember how this turned out? If people love these characters, they don't give a damn how many actors in how many movies played it before.
46 minutes ago, Caesar said:It's a 3 hour long dark noir film being released at a time when people are hesitant to spend too long in an enclosed space
Like people didn't want to spend 2,5 hours watching Spider-Man: No Way Home, right?🙄
46 minutes ago, Caesar said:WB should honestly celebrate if this makes a $100 m OW, that should be the benchmark for success.
Nope, nope and nope. As I wrote before, Batman Begins today would have around $106.5M opening - with much smaller hype (demaged reputation after B&R in '97), less theaters (3858), no 3D, no ScreenX, less IMAXes, and when superhero movies weren't as popular as today. Anything under $110 mln would be a big sad surprise for Battinson's fans.
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It's not. Completely different release conditions (TASM was between The Avengers and TDKR, and was released on Tuesday), and different hype level (much lower). The better example is Man of Steel - highly anticipated return of the DC icon (I rememeber the hype, it was a big deal that summer). Opening weekend with Thursday previews - $128.68 mln, with today ATP. around $148.3 million. So, it's still in $110-150M range. With great reviews and +4400 theaters, I believe The Batman might open over $150 million (even being dark, nearly 3 hours movie).
There are only 4 wide releases in March after that and non of them is the direct competition for Batman. Legs should be fine, maybe better than last Planet of the Apes film and Nolan's TDKR.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Juby
🤦♂️
The last 3 DC films were box office flops (BoP, WW84, TSS). Warner Bros. will be a huge winner if all of their four films in 2022 will do +$500m ww. Demanding $1bn from The Flash and $800m from Black Adam is ridiculous.
The Batman is headin' for $115m opening weekend. That would be great(!) start. With almost empty March and April $300m domestic shouldn't be a problem.