Juby
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Posts posted by Juby
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18 hours ago, TheDude391 said:
Wasn't this rumored at only being 100-120 prior?
£90-110 million. £, not dollars.
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3 hours ago, Brainbug said:
Lower than Fallen Kingdom is pretty unrealistic in my opinion. 500 Million for Dominion seems more safe. People tend to underestimate the power of dinosaur appeal. It happened with Jurassic World when people said that it will gross about 250M or 300M, it happened again with FK, when many here said that it would top out at 350M.
Fallen Kingdom did very well after good will from the first JW. Dominion is direct sequel to not-so-good JW:FK. It will drop as The Rise of Skywalker did after The Last Jedi. $500M is not gonna happen. $400M will be a big surprise. $330-350M is were I see it now. Strange2 will crush the dinosaurs this summer, Thor probably too.
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19 hours ago, Eric Poirot said:
Okay but....nobody's underpredicting this?
I see $120-125 mln OW / $335 mln domestic
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39 minutes ago, Tarintino said:
No sorry, but It is a fact that Heaths death boosted TDK's gross.
No one ever deny it. NO ONE! EVER!! We only say it's impossible to say how much. By 2%? 12%? 25%? 50%? You can't tell! Maybe TDK without Heath's death would have gross 110ow/360dom/700ww, maybe 150/500/950. We will never know.
End of offtopic.
$80M tracking for The Batman is a joke. As Scott Mendelson noticed, Batman Begins 5-day opening was $72 mln. In 2005! Today, with 3D, 4DX, more screens, and higher average tickets price, new Batman film suppose to open on the same level? Impossible. Especially if we consider this will be not only a weekend, but in a way 6-day opening (Tue-Thu previews). Any tracking under Justice League (2017) opening is ridiculous.
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5 hours ago, Tarintino said:
TDK was great but its gross was massively inflated due to Heath's death, especially considering his death was a direct result of trying to perfect his joker role.
Another bulls*it. Heath died three months after he finishes his work on TDK. He has insomnia problem after divorce. And he was barely known actor in 2008 when he died. People would have show up for his Joker no matter what.
5 hours ago, Tarintino said:The WW gross tripled from BB.
As other sequels has. And BB box office run was only solid because. . . I won't repeat it again.
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6 hours ago, excel1 said:
What was your age demo in 2008 and how closely were you following the film industry?
I was 16 and this was the very first film I followed day by day. I remember this case very clearly, especially viral marketing and big hype (even in my country).
6 hours ago, excel1 said:Before I even get into, the good news here is the internet existed in 2008 and there are tons of resources which will back up my claim that average predictions pre-Ledger death were dramatically lower then final predictions and of the course final result.
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=20436&hilit=the+dark+knight
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=37513&hilit=summer+2008
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=37467&hilit=summer+2008
After Heath's death predictions still were low. Much lower than final results, sometimes lower than Iron Man's gross. EW forecast gave TDK $255 mln, The Weekend Warrior $305-310 mln if I remember correctly (4-5 months after Ledger died). Your argument is invalid here. Predictions are always only predictions, it means nothing. If not Shrek 2, I'll give You another example - Jurassic World predictions were max. $400 mln even 2 weeks pre-release and JW did $652M domestically. Can You tell me reasons why? Why no one saw this is going to be so huge? I'll tell You - because such things happens!
6 hours ago, excel1 said:Batman Begins was not a popular a Shrek as is obvious by BB's box office performance compared to Shreks.
I already explain why Begins had only "solid" box office run, and that reception of the film - even with smaller B.O. succes - was even better than Shrek's + Batman was bigger name after regaining reputation with Begins.
6 hours ago, excel1 said:All of your reasons explain why TDK was expected to open in the $110-115m range, which was HUGE at the time. It would have been one of the top 5 opening weekends ever had it hit $120m. Hype was huge indeed. Before Ledger's death, TDK was part of the summers "big 3" with Indy and Narnia. By mid June, it was obvious TDK had become the big 1.
We are not debating whether it was or was not a monster, we are debating the extent to which it was a monster. You do know TDK would have another $8-10m more on opening weekend had theaters been more prepared, right? Pre-Ledger death, everyone saw $100-115m, post death, they all jumped to $135ish, reality SHOULD have been $170m had theaters been prepared.
I don't care what everyone saw before Ledger's death and after that, it was still only predicting!! Before no one died everyone expected $80-120 mln opening weekend for Jurassic World, and after still no one died everyone start to thinking about $120-160 mln for Jurassic World. And finally the film opened with $209 mln which no one ever expected. No one expected JW will defeat Age of Ultron, no one knew Spider-Man will defeat Attack of the Clones, no one expected that Black Panther will break over $450 mln, but he become the third $700M-grosser. Such things happens all the time, films break-out over our predictions. What people predicted for TDK (especially after B&R and Batman Begins's runs, forgeting how big Batman name was and how many tickets were sold for the first Tim Burton's film + current tickets prices) is no argument here.
6 hours ago, excel1 said:Cant prove anyone right or wrong, but can absolutely say that some logic and reason I more sound than others - there is zero reason to think it would have performed better than Pirates 2, which is what your numbers shows.
There's planty of reasons to think that TDK would have performed better than Pirates 2, and even if there's zero like U said, sometimes even without reason films make a surprise. Wildest things happened in box office.
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But I'm not trying to prove he's wrong. I'm saying everyone who's tryin' to do so is wrong, including me.
+65% from Shrek 2 is just one example. John Wick 3 did +86% of the JW2 (and Keanu didn't die 7 months before the release date
). Terminator 2 did +500% of the first Terminator run. My point is - such things happens in Box Office all the time. I don't see anything unbeliveble with +260% growth for a Batman seauel. Maybe TDK without Heath's death still could break OW record and gross over $500M domestically, we will never know.
The same thing might happen to The Batman. The "right" Batman film could be a break-out hit no matter what.
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11 hours ago, excel1 said:
Ahem.
A someone who followed the production of both films, from the day Nolan was announced as director, and is basically a box office expert on the time period given how closely I followed/worked with it...
THE DARK KNIGHT, with Ledger alive throughout the release, is no doubt a big hit from day 1, before WOM had spread. The expectations were for an opening in the $100m range, which would probably would have increased to $115-120m with actuals. BATMAN BEGINS, though very popular, was not THAT popular. Hell, for summer 2005, Mr. and Mrs. Smith & Charlie & the Chocolate Factory had decidedly better legs than BEGINS. But let use a basic comparison:
Pirates 1: $45m weekend/$70m 5-day/$306m total = ELITE legs
Batman 1: $45m weekend/$72m 5-day/$205m total = QUITE GOOD legs
Pirates 2: $136m ow/$435m total
Batman 2: $115m/$325-350m would be a logical, reasonable prediction. WOM would have obviously pushed the total further in reality.
Going into 2008, many analysts expected Indiana Jones 4 to be the biggest film of the summer, with Narnia 2 and Batman to battle it out for 2nd. Obviously that went very differently because Heath Ledger dying changed everything. That was a HUGE pop culture news story, and every single article mentioned his role as The Joker in the upcoming Batman film. Ledger was one of the biggest young stars in the world circa 2000-2001, his star faded dramatically 2002-2005. Brokeback Mountain was already viewed as a "comeback film" for him, and the internet was legendarily outraged (I remember this very well) when his casting announced. His death meant public awareness for the film was basically 100% 6 months before release. It gave WB the unprecedented position of being able to focus solely on building "definite interest". Further, nearly every piece of coverage mentioned Ledger's supposedly unforgettable performance as Joker. With it being his final mainstream film, people were predisposed to view it favorably. That the films quality delivered to the extent that it did was icing on the cake.
It is morbid but also 100% true - Ledger's death was the difference between a $115/120m opener/$360/$380m finisher and the $158m/530m run the film had. For anyone to deny it is ignorant to the facts of the time.
Hmmm.... Bullshit. Every year I hear the same bs.
If the second Shrek could have done +65% of the first Shrek domestic run, why Batman couldn't add even more? Batman Begins box office run was only "solid" because: 1) people didn't care about the Batman after Schumacher's B&R; 2) There was no famous villain in it. But!! After the best reviews from any Batman film so far, fantastic grades from the audience (Begins was in Top100 on IMDb) and a cliffhanger, hype for the sequel was huge. Begins DVD-sales was the second biggest from any 2005-film right after Revenge of the Sith, people just stopped carying about the Joel Schumacher's Batman films and wanted new Batman again, and the new Joker (the sequel had the most famous Batman's villain). The very first Batman from 1989 adjusted gross in July 2008 was $445.7 mln - why the new "Batman vs. Joker" showdown with even stronger marketing, better reception and IMAXes couldn't do the same or even more? I remember hype for TDK even in August 2007, or in December 2007 (after the film's prologue before I am Legend and the first trailer) - it was a monster already! Ofc Heath's death add a lot of attention to TDK, but the movie became gigantic succes not due to the fact everyone have heard he's dead, but because the film was fantastic and everyone have heard Heath's performance as the Joker is fenomenal. Anyone tryin' to give specific numbers how much his death add to the film's box office run is wrong. You say 120/380, I can say +140/470. Prove me wrong.
*Also, 4 years later TDKR with smaller hype, lesser-known villain and worse reception, than TDK did $448 mln DOM even after the tragedy from midnight screening and all the problems it caused to the box office that summer.
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7 hours ago, dudalb said:
I like Robert Patttinson and he is giving every sign of being a great Batman but when I saw this my reaction was "Guess he never saw Batman and Robin".
I saw B&R multiple times and I agree with Robert. The only Batman film I don't like / I think is bad, is Zack Snyder's BvS. B&R is overheated, it is fast-paced, full of action superhero extravaganza, with good score, good production design, good costumes (yes! even with the bat-nipples), good make-up, great Arnold puns and some good director work.
Back to The Batman, my current wide-range prediction:
Opening weekend: $115-155 mlnDomestic: $300-400 mln
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Let's forget about Spider-Man: No Way Home for one second. . .
The biggest opening weekend of the last two years is $90.03 mln (Venom 2), the biggest domestic is $224.5 mln (Shang-Chi), and the biggest overseas for Warner Bros. is $367.3 mln (Godzilla vs. Kong). Everything bigger than mentioned numbers will be a huge win for The Batman - 3hours reboot released during the global pandemic & made for very reasenable production budget ($110-160 mln). I think $100 mln OW, $250 mln DOM and $600 mln WW is the floor, but I'm hoping for another +$750 mln grosser.
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10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Part One
worldwide: $600 mln / domestic: $270 mln9. Top Gun: Maverick
worldwide: $620 mln / domestic: $210 mln8. "Mission: Impossible 7"
worldwide: $690 mln / domestic: $190 mln7. The Batman
worldwide: $780 mln / domestic: $310 mln6. Lightyear
worldwide: $850 mln / domestic: $325 mln5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
worldwide: $940 mln / domestic: $450 mln4. Thor: Love and Thunder
worldwide: $1.05b / domestic: $410 mln3. Jurassic World: Dominion
worldwide: $1.15b / domestic: $335 mln2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
worldwide: $1.25b / domestic: $430 mln1. "Avatar 2"
worldwide: $1.85-3.7b / domestic: $500 mln-1.1b+ Probably 1-2 china films with $600-900 mln (99% gross from China).
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On 12/5/2021 at 9:49 PM, Multiverse of XXR said:
Who's expecting that? The biggest true Friday number I've seen floated around is like $77M but most are in the $60-70M range.
The Avengers did $80,8M on its premiere day. This movie has no Thursday previews (it was before TDKR shooting), the first screenings began one minute after midnight. Same with the last Harry Potter film - it did over $91M on Friday, July 15th 2011. I guess this was the biggest true Friday.
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Almost everyone I know have already seen the film from.... alternative free sources (there's no HBO Max here in Poland). I think WW84 is gonna drop hard this weekend everywhere.
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This is not Joker topic, folks!
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So the bad scenario is around $290 million OS. Still nice all things consider. The good scenario is even $315-320 million - very good for a first major movie released during pandemic.
It seems the fate of the film completely depends on US theaters. With barely $30 mln after almost 2 weeks, this movie has no profit. Warner must keep it in cinemas as long as possible and push it over $100 million no matter what, even if the California and NY theaters opens as late as in December, and even if they decide to not release Tenet on UHD/Blu-ray/DVD for a whole year.
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So $300 million overseas is dead, or we can't be sure yet?
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Damn! I hate this news. I wanna punch somebody right now...
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Sow it yesterday. For me it's the weakest from all Christopher Nolan's films. Visually great, action and tension are fine, but the characters (excepts amazing Pattinson and good Debicki) are weak, the story is too convoluted, and the sci-fi concept is very confusing. Watching fights and chases scenes was great, but all the rest very tiresome (even dialog scene, like with Michael Caine). I also don't like the music (or whatever this sounds are). 6/10
I don't think it would be a huge hit. Even pre-pandemic i can't imagine Inception numbers. Incetpion was larger, more entertaining, more satisfying. I don't think people would wont to see it for the second, third time, as they did with Inception.
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19 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:
He's literally vibing Gordon left, right and centre in that trailer. Why do some of ya'll insist on going out of your way to expose yourselves like this? 🙄
Sorry, but what's your problem here? I didn't like the idea of Jeffrey Wright being cast as Gordon just because he was(is) Felix in Bond films, which for me was always some kind of Gordon-like character in the Bond franchise. And the new Bond film and the new Batman are separated less than a year in release calendar. But after this teaser, I'll give him a chance (he looks fine).
Stop assuming that everyone are racists.
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The best movie trailer since the second Infinity War trailer (march 2018) for me!
Love it (I'll give a chance even this awful Bat-cowl and Wright as Gordon). Finally Batman non-action film, but a detective movie! It looks like a Batman I've been waiting for, for a long time. Easily most anticipated film of 2021 for me. Fingers crossed.
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James, my message to You...
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For all these years I was sure it will beat the first Avatar results, but now... even if the covid will be only a bad memory, a the cinemas will be open, I'm afraid this hole pandemic time will have effect on A2 bo run. I'm not sure if $2B are possible anymore :/
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It's so funny, cause the movie initial release date was December and later November 2019. Warner pushed it to June 2020 and now they've lost potential $1 billion grosser (I don't think now WW84 will get that).
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This discussion is pointless. You're arguing which poop smells better. The correct answer: Both stinks! Genisys is more MCU-wanna-be, kids-friendly 10s' blockbuster than a "Terminator movie", and Dark Fate is just stupid, boring, unnecessary sequel which trashes beautiful T2 ending and all the stakes from T1 and T2. These are two awful Terminator movies.
All in all, Genisys at least not tried to be "a true Terminator 3" (LOL) and was better sci-fi, so in my opinion it's smaller evil.
The Batman | March 4, 2022 | Warner Bros. | Certified Fresh on RT | 7th Most Profitable Movie of 2023
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Some numbers:
Batman Begins (previous Batman reboot) 5-day opening was $72.9 mln (atp. in 2005 = $6.41). With the 2021 average ticket price ($9.37) that would be around $106.5 mln.
Spider-Man: Homecoming (the most successful superhero reboot so far) opening weekend was $117 million. Today it would be around $122.25 mln.
Suicide Squad (the biggest opening for a DC film after BvS) opening weekend was $133.7 mln = around $144.81 mln today.
Ofc. it's all based on average prices, but The Batman might have much more theaters, screens, IMAXes, ScreenX, etc. so the differance would be bigger. $110-150 mln OW is the reasonable target Imho, and with the very positive reviews from the critics maybe more.