Cmasterclay

Jat was right about Color Purple missing 100 lol. Never should have brought it up!

Next year certainly looks much better than this year in September to December. I think summer looks a bit weaker but not exceedingly week. April and May are bleh. March is pretty alright. January and February are dire. Let's see what mid budget films get thrown back onto schedule in next few weeks. I also think that the immense economic and political factors of next year could have impacts in unanticipated directions (positive or negative).

Sure, there's something in the range of precedent, but Unbroken had a (likely) lower opening day, had a de facto pay it forward with church groups obsessing over it, and was a wet fart of a movie with no award buzz....and it still crossed 100 relatively easily?

Looking at next year, I think September to December looks exceedingly better than this year tbh, March to August looks maybe a bit weaker but not tragically so, and January/February could kill theaters dead before we even have a chance.

All very possible. I think there's a mathematical reason to doubt 100. Intuitively, though, I think that it's a good movie with a likely A Cinemascore that will possibly get nominated for some awards and it isn't going anywhere. I'm not incredible hopeful for the weekdays tbh but I am hopeful for the weekends going deep into January. It'd require 47 Ronin style to hit some of these lower numbers. But, like I was ranting about earlier, the intuition that has guided me for years of box office prediction is no longer anything worth much in the face of the advanced data collection we now have.

It's hard for me to square both capacity causing issues and it having horrible legs with no spillover boost tomorrow and Wednesday. Unless there's just a huge segment of people that wanted to see Color Purple, it was sold out, and now won't see it because it isn't Christmas.

I loved the Iron Claw, but I'm also a huge pro wrestling fan, a lover of both the Bear and Mindhunter, was in a production of High School Musical when I was young, and consider Lily James the hottest woman in Hollywood. So please don't take my review that seriously.

A couple people in the tracking thread did this week. But there's been some fairly odd rhetoric about it in that thread that isn't reflective of the general opinion of the boards, for sure.

Color Purple would still have to have historically bad holiday legs to miss 100. Think it ends somewhere between 120-150. Boat marketing was absolutely relentless the last two weeks. Couldn't watch a single down of football without seeing an ad it felt like. It paid off!

This number may seem bad, but it's actually every black person in Utah.

I don't think March to December look quite as bad as initially feared, but boy do January and February stink.

Weird how very well Ferrari is doing near me, seems totally contradictory to the numbers already reported and tracking but some markets in the tracking thread back me up.

I think it is fine to be excited and happy. I'm just searching for different things after all these years on the boards. With due respect to our trackers and numbers people, who are brilliant and add so much to the boards, it has eliminated the element of special surprise us old heads used to get. 99.99 percent of runs now we have exact tracking data for OD/preview and the mathematical savvy to extrapolate those numbers to their conclusion over the lifetime of a run. I've been posting here since 2008. Back in the day, if Color Purple opened to 17m OD, it would have been a stunning, mindblowing surprise that swept everyone off their feet. Now, 17m is somewhere between...expected and disappointing? We will never have a preview or opening day number truly surprise us again. We ain't waking up to find that something like the Hangover or Hunger Games did triple our predictions on a Friday like it used to be. We pretty much knew exactly what every single opener was gonna do this weekend. The excitement in following box office now comes from when a movie breaks from the extrapolation after that opening day with shocking numbers, like a Top Gun or Super Mario Bros or PIB2 did. Wonka is doing fine. But with all due respect to the trackers, not a single number has been remotely surprising or thrilling since the first day of presales. It's been completely and utterly predictable. That doesn't make it less good. But it's also not particularly special or fun. Anyway, Merry Christmas to you all - much love to my brothers and sisters on this wonderful place, even if I now sound like an old ass man yelling to get off my lawn.

I am fine saying it is doing well. Every day it feels like the vibe in the threads is that its the next Greatest Showman when the weekdays and weekend numbers have been normal amounts of good. I am waiting for these legs to carry it past what M37 and others had always projected to kick in, is all. For what it's worth, even though PIB2 will ultimately gross less than Wonka, I found that alot more exciting of a run. Every day was a banger in terms of how good the legs were. A movie can gross more money and still feel like a much less special run. Happens all the time.

The hype around Wonka's legs is like the BOT version of a pyramid scheme. It's doing fine. It could hit 200, it's probably about even odds if not better. But that's it. A nice enough total with solid legs from a solid opening. Nothing particularly special about this run or its legs.

Not hitting 100 and Wonka not hitting 200. We're the opposite of back.

Bad, bad, bad Saturday numbers. Definitely shifts perception of weekend for me tbh. Not sure Aquaman/Migration hit 100 from that. 30 mill gonna be tough for Anyone But You (and I assume Iron Claw) as well.

If Color Purple missed 100m domestic from a 20m OD in Christmas season, it'd be legitimately the worst legs ever. Even the dire Ali comparison thrown around in this thread (for both starring black people, I guess?) would get it to 114. Given that this is a woman-targeted musical that I bet gets an A Cinemascore given the triumphant nature of it, I would ballpark Les Mis numbers.

It's only one day so I don't want to extrapolate too far, but can't Iron Claw flirt with 35m? That's insane for a mega depressing A24 movie about the Von Erichs.

Based on my projections...... 300m movies 2023 - 5 2022- 8 2019- 10 100m movies 2023- 25 or 26 2022 - 18 2019 - 31 50m movies 2023- 49 2022 - 33 2019 - 56 10m movies 2023- 101 2022 - 72 2019 - 121 Pretty clear story - a rebuild from 2022, but still a long way to go from 2019. 2024 not looking quite as bad as I expected, but still probably not much better than this year.

With that slight drop from estimates for Wonka/Aquaman/Migration, it puts falling below last year's 93 million aggregate for the top 10 in danger. That'd be rough. That said, the total gross is going to soar above, because the 11th biggest movie this weekend would have been like the fourth last year. That's the story of this winter - great depth, no mega hits.

Keyser predicting 25 and Charlie predicting 11 is a pretty big gap in the two trackers.

Last couple months I was predicting a 25m breakout for Iron Claw due to unholy combination of A24 stans, wrestling people like me, and Efron girlies. Dropped it to 10m because of the shitty presales and tracking. Should have trusted my initial instinct!!

Felt alot about Poor Things like I did about EEAAO - a ton of great performances, good jokes, and impressive technical stuff all thrown together in a big bowl that didn't quite connect with me.

It's possible for this December to both suck and to be quite a bit better than the apocalyptic expectations during the big Thanksgiving thread, too.