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Cmasterclay

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Everything posted by Cmasterclay

  1. Cmasterclay
    I mean last summer I said it was going below The Meg 2, I've been the main one beating the drum that this franchise has a hard ceiling with the general audience. I did begin to buy that the empty marketplace and masterful marketing might pay off to a bigger breakout.
  2. Cmasterclay
    To be clear I predicted 65-70 for months, but that would be shitty relative to the last two weeks of reasonable explanations where it looked more like 75-85 was the range. Box office really needs it to go over John Wick numbers.
  3. Cmasterclay
    Jesus, from talking about 100m to talking under 70m since Monday is pretty wild.
  4. Cmasterclay
    I think it's because it's long as hell and there's no holiday this Thursday/Friday, so pretty much any non-fans are waiting until the weekend days.
  5. Cmasterclay
    I actually do think Garfield has a 200m domestic shot. Fall Guy could do nice enough but when was the last time a movie like that broke out THAT much? Also wasn't everyone saying how great Bullet Train was before release, and then it stunk? At this point I don't have Apes making 100m domestic, and Bad Boys seems a cinch lock to drop from last one without the pent up demand and nostalgia.
  6. Cmasterclay
    When/if Dune 2 doesn't hit 200 we aren't getting a 200m domestic grosser until Inside Out 2....that is woof. I had fun being optimistic for a few weeks and making some nice posts about all the breakout little hits but I feel the old Clay coming back!! (Edit: to be clear this is still much higher than I predicted for Dune 2, it's the state of the year that I'm cynical about)
  7. Cmasterclay
    Frankly a little stunned how little this seems to be breaking out considering the huge trailer views, initial buzz, nostalgia factor, and starved kid's market. I predicted 55/180 in the 2024 predictions and now I hope it just gets over 100.
  8. Cmasterclay
    Looking like the 73/187 that John Wick 4 seems like the realistic domestic target for Dune. I had it at 55/140 last summer so certainly outpunched what I thought!
  9. Cmasterclay
    Godzilla x Kong has no hook at all and is coming out at the end of a busy month, I'm not as low as Shawn but I just don't see why it would do much more than King of the Monsters. The last one was the real megahit waiting to happen and they blew it on day and date streaming release before the fucking vaccine was even available.
  10. Cmasterclay
    Liam Neeson....Leslie Nielsen......if you say them fast enough, enough times, they are the same name.
  11. Cmasterclay
    Shocking that people in this thread that have spent the last year calling me negative on everything are suddenly acting mega disappointed Dune is about to hit 75m-80m. That's an amazing number. Who in the world could have expected those kind of numbers for a Dune movie? It's a miracle these movies both made as much as they did - turned one of the dorkiest, whitest hard sci fi franchises into legit hits. I'm still stunned all these years later it even got greenlit.
  12. Cmasterclay
    So instead of moving to next year it moves up. Nice one!
  13. Cmasterclay
    I liked the first Dune but didn't quite love it because of emotional inertness. Anyone who had the same feeling on Dune 1 see this last night? Seems like alot of big time Dune Heads giving reviews here, which is totally fine to be, but they also told me I should be cuming my pants over Part One too.
  14. Cmasterclay
    Yellowstone is a soap opera with contemporary grievance. I don't think that translates to this being a theatrical hit at all, sadly. Looks good though!
  15. Cmasterclay
    Think March release grosses add up to low-mid 700s which is a nice increase but lack of holdovers and a little backloading means the calendar gross falls below 2023.
  16. Cmasterclay
    Man actually now that I look at last summer it had a sizable number of hits that I totally forgot about, this summer is kind of looking fucking rough ngl.
  17. Cmasterclay
    March 2024 should beat out March 2023 (though not much at all), April will be like 500m behind with no Mario, and May-August are looking to have the same three 300m+ and a few films around 150m as last year, except with no Barbie at the top end, so it will be lower too. Theoretically could have nearly a billion behind 2023 by September. Now, September to December of this year look much, much more lucrative than 2023's did on paper, but it just might be too much to make up unless Taylor has another Eras tour or something.
  18. Cmasterclay
    One of the few realistic choices that could have possibly gotten me interested after the absolute dreck of the last three. Edwards far from perfect but the things he does very well (scale, atmosphere) are the things that were most missing from the last trilogy.
  19. Cmasterclay
    Test screening reports on this were great so I think Xmas platform for a 1917 type release is still possible.
  20. Cmasterclay
    Quorum far from the end all be all but those are horrendous numbers for Furiousa. Have had Dune at 70m OW since last fall and still sticking there until next week at least - just think the white fanboy factor is going to lead to comps coming down quite heavily, but I'd love to be wrong and frankly the good news is that now looks like a low range and not a high range!
  21. Cmasterclay
    I think the continued pattern of good holds and unexpected mini breakouts and depth at the box office indicates that people are coming back and want to spend some money at the movies - I do worry that the utter lack of product compared to even a meh 2023 could lead to a lower ceiling for the year. You can only have so many 60-70m mini breakouts to add up to a total figure.
  22. Cmasterclay
    Actually think the box office is starting to get quite healthy market wise, it's the lacking product that concerns me this year. Which I suppose is an improvement from last couple years!
  23. Cmasterclay
    Box Office Theory user CrashBandicoot81 DESTROYS Bob Marley's legacy!!!!
  24. Cmasterclay
    I didn't quite get to loving Dune even though I loved most elements of it - I liked it very much, but it was a bit emotionally chilly and turgid and geometric for me. People forget how much a movie like Lord of the Rings. BR2049, or even TDK trilogy hit the heartstrings in a way this just doesn't tap into. I doubt this one has that either but if it substitutes genuinely electric political stakes and commentary that'd be a fine substitute!
  25. Cmasterclay
    Yeah I liked Dune. Dune your mom!
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