Cmasterclay

Hey, we're neighbors! I'm seeing the same thing at Oakwood and Dania Pointe in my area along with Aventura. But this film skews pretty white (and not just Taylor Swift white) for our area. Color Purple is sold out all day on Christmas at all three of these theaters btw. Insanely impressive.

These numbers make me wonka my willy.

Apparently that Argylle awareness number is not reflective of my theaters. I've gotten the trailer at every movie without fail since September. Even Anatomy of a Fall!

If "fan expectations" explain the scores, it is great for reception but a little concerning for internal multiplier. If Willy Wonka truly has that many "fans", then 30 looks more likely than 35.

Beetlejuice also had a massive debut on Quorum. If it's not total garbage I've moved it over 300m in my predictions. The buzz is palpable IRL too.

Most wide open seems to be the sixth (and maybe fifth) spot in Best Picture - Drama. Assuming Oppenheimer, Killers, Past Lives, Maestro, and maybe Anatomy of a Fall I guess the sixth goes to ...... Zone of Interest? Ferrari? Iron Claw?

I think it certainly appears to be headed for about 12, and as high as Les Mis wouldn't totally stun me though I am doubtful it gets that high. It's already selling well with a (likely) review boost to come. Also, the PostTrak data consistently shows that black audiences of all ages returned to theaters in slightly higher degrees than white audiences, and the last movie targeted towards black audiences was.....I can't even remember.

Predicting 135m for Wonka, 120m for Color Purple and Migration (PIB style legs incoming), and about 90 for Aquaman. 25m for Poor Things, 20m for Iron Claw and Ferrari. Eh!!!

December may be saved by sheer volume instead of any real hits - we had three solid openers in the two weeks that usually never get any, and a whopping seven wide releases (plus one or two major expansions) coming next. The sheer amount of product making various degrees of money, from hits like Wonka and Color Purple to 15m here and there for stuff like Iron Claw and Ferrari, is enough to at least sustain theaters a bit by volume. It's why 2023 is up so much over 2022. That said, 2024 has some red alert signs with the strike delays and a return to normal output post-COVID.

Eh, the first two weekends of December are usually much more shit than these two. It's actually gonna add up to much higher new content than in past years over these two weeks, so I'd say it's a positive story. It is what is coming I'm more concerned about.

May December one of the rare films I feel actually benefitted from Netflix release, felt kind of dead at Cannes but it caught zeitgeist with the streaming crowd.

Huge miss for Iron Claw and Color Purple. Color Purple still has Globes and SAG to rebuild, Iron Claw might be fucked. Feels like the top nine there, minus Spiderverse and plus Anatomy (ineligible for AFI) might be our lineup. I'm not totally ruling out Color Purple yet though.

Predictions update!! Picture Oppenheimer (winner) Holdovers Killers Of the Flower Moon Barbie Maestro Poor Things American Fiction Past Lives I am quite confident about those eight!! (Last two between Color Purple, Anatomy of a Fall, Zone of Interest, Iron Claw, May December, and Boy and Heron. I am currently going Color Purple and Anatomy of a Fall with no confidence) Director Nolan (winner) Gerwig Marty Payne Yorgos Actor Murphy (winner) BCoop Wright Leo Giamatti (I can DEF see Zac making it....just not sure who he knocks out!) Actress Gladstone (winner) Stone Mulligan Fantasia Huller (Margot just missing but I can obviously see it) Supporting Actor Gosling (winner) De Niro Downey Mark Buffalo Sauce Melton (Let's see if Melton keeps it up. I think he does. No idea who wins this one honestly. Wide open). Supporting Actress Da'Vine (winner) Moore Brooks Henson Blunt

In the ten film era, they usually miss 3-5 movies - they particularly love their big masculine epics by guys like Eastwood, so no stunner on Ferrari here. Now, AFI tomorrow? That'll capture 8 of the 10 nominees, I'd bet. Very predictive.

I will say I see a fairly unreal amount of memes for this from people with zero previous interest in Godzilla movies

Timmy seems like a miscast but Holland seems like even more of a miscast. Gene Wilder was a demented hot weirdo, Holland and Timothee both have big theater kid energy. It needed to be like ten years younger Ryan Gosling or something.

They've replaced Jesus with Paddington over there, so it makes sense.

This was so excellent. Often terrifying, often moving. Can't believe the mainline American franchise can't take a hint of notes from this film.

Saw Minus One today. Loved it. Shame what a stinking bore this looks like just like the last two. A bunch of fantastical souless bullshit without an ounce of stakes or scale. Minus One is proof these movies don't have to be dumb garbage.

Some solid numbers at the middle and lower end of the market and in the specialty release/one week engagement types that I think continues in December, but the lack of even a Jumanji level hit, much less an Avatar or NWH one, is brutal. Box office has some health returning in some places if you look hard enough but the lack of a mega hit dampens everything.

There's huge desire for this movie. Unfortunately it's a Tim Burton in the year 2023, so probably gonna be real bad.

Battlefield Earth would get positive social embargo reactions in this day and age. Come on. I'll wait for reviews.

Nice for the Holdovers, wish it got a little bit of expansion and no VOD so it could hit 25m. Movie is beloved by audiences.

I appreciated the movie's depiction of Napoleon as an insecure horndog bozo as Numbers said, but it is so uninterested in politics or history that it gives you zero reason to give a shit about this guy and why him being this way matters. If you didn't know French history, you'd be confused why this guy was any different at all. If you did know French history, like me, it feels woefully short on any perspective to add stakes. I didn't want some dry textbook, but at least make it feel like we should care about what this guy did.

I mean I never thought it was gonna be that good, I just thought that there was alot of audience interest in it, and it's still gonna finish above HOG. The 3m previews prove that audiences were into it, but I can understand now why it isn't getting great legs.