Horrendous piece of garbage. And not in the jokey "I'm so in" way. Just a joke that a film like this and a film like Minus One get to share the same property. Ugly, garish, nonsensical, weightless, stakeless nightmare. Fuck it. Fuck it to hell.
1. American Fiction
2. Oppenheimer
3. The Holdovers
4. Anatomy Of A Fall
5. Zone of Interest
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
Massive gap after these six
7. Past Lives
8. Barbie
9. Maestro
10. Poor Things
FWIW Bob Marley seems to have tactile, period sets and costumes, which run up the budget. I think it is high even considering that but I won't complain too much about doing that when they somehow made a Wicked movie look like it was filmed in a broom closet apparently (and for much more expensive)
Box office is down astronomical but I didn't even realize Lisa Frankenstein was a movie until somebody corrected me in the weekend thread last weekend that there was a wide release coming this weekend. So not gonna cry wolf over that failing.
Still think Marley does well despite meh reviews. I'm dying on the hill! (50m+ domestic would be "well")
September to December suddenly starting to get actually loaded. Maybe release some movies in February or April or August next time guys?
Wicked is such a perfect holiday movie and it's ready to drop but obviously it feels like it should move now. Gladiator is fine.
Somewhere like 70/190 or 200 domestic. Panda 55/185, Ghostbusters 45/120, GVK 60/150, Arthur The King like a weird 15/60 run, and Imaginary maybe high teens opening.
I predicted 70m/200m in my pre-year predictions and sticking with that. By the way, I think that would be outstanding! That's nearly double Dune 1 despite less pent up hype from years of waiting. Obviously COVID factors in there, but this franchise is a fairly hard sci-fi for white people that is more niche than the internet would have you believe. I'd find 200m outstandingly good.
My hot take is that people on here are going to be disappointed by Dune 2's numbers and pleasantly surprised by Panda/Ghostbusters/GVK/Arthur The Kang.
April is lacking in any clear big hit like past Aprils but it does have a surplus of films I think can do solid adult business and be good, so that's something. Overall gross for that month is going to be hella low but it could have a few nice stories.
Lack of competition is indeed helping some movies have really nice legs, as expected, but next weekend with no wide release and the Super Bowl is going to cause meltdowns how low things get. Madame Web ain't doing shit either. Bout to have a February where One Love is the only 50m grosser, and even that not by a ton.
Fortunately, I'm optimistic to varying degrees about all four big releases in March plus a couple of the smaller ones too.
A Complete Unknown apparently isn't filming until summer, I highly doubt that is ready for this year. PTA is already two weeks into filming but that's apparently for 2025 too, as is the Pitt F1 movie and Safdie/Rock MMA movie and QT's next flick. Basically if they aren't nearly totally done filming I doubt they're coming out this year. Rough year.
Lots of potentially interesting big budget plays (Dune, Mickey 17, Joker, Gladiator, Furiosa, Wicked), but man oh man does the midsize and smaller adult slate look devastating this year. 2025 gonna be loaded post strikes.
Final Predictions
Picture
The same ten every single person is predicting, though if something breaks through, somehow I think it's going to be fucking Saltburn.
Director
Nolan
Marty
Gerwig
Yorgos
Glazer
(First out: Triet)
Actor
Murphy
Pauly G
Cooper
Wright
Domingo
(Leo still wouldn't stun me)
Actress
Gladstone
Stone
Huller
Robbie
Mulligan
(Benning is first out and could see a sneak in)
Supporting Actor
RDJ
Gosling
De Niro
Dafoe
Brown
(None of Ruffalo/Melton/Sessa would remotely stun me)
Supporting Actress
Randolph
Brooks
Blunt
Foster
Pike
(Can certainly see Huller or Cruz or Moore here)
Feels like the Best Picture lineup is very set but the other lineups are interesting - can see any combo in Director after Nolan/Marty, last spot in Actress and Actor both up in air, and I can see any permutation of Brown/Sessa/Ruffalo/Dafoe/ Melton as final two in BSActor and any two of Foster/Pike/Moore/McAdams in BSActress.
To be clear, I think there's a good chance that One Love stinks given the release window they picked for it, and if it does go rotten then I see under 50m. But if it goes fresh, I think it's going to do quite well. That's my caveat prediction.
Whitney Houston was certainly an incredibly beloved and popular musician who sold a shit ton of famous records, but Marley kind of transcends just popular music into being a cultural titan IMO. We shall see! Market is alot better than it was for Whitney too.