Cmasterclay

Blair Witch is going to be terrific. I promised myself I wouldn't get too excited for an Antoine Fuqua movie again (Equalizer is his only good movie in 15 years), but there's a conflation of evidence that Magnificent Seven is really, really fun. Can't say I'm into Sully at all, though. Looks like Flight with all the good parts gone, and Flight had barely had enough good parts in the first place.

55 million OW, one mill for every percentage on Obama's record approval ratings! I can't wait. It looks and sounds like an exceptionally well-done, contained romantic comedy, except with the Obamas as a twist. It's a fantastic idea for a movie.

Oh yea, Southside With You comes out this month, too! That'll be awesome. Even Hands of Stone is getting okay reviews. Why couldn't they spread some of this shit out throughout the summer? I'm about to be working full-time 80 hours a week for Hillary, every day. Why couldn't they have thrown me a bone when I had free time.

Last year it gave us The Gift and Straight Outta Compton, plus pretty much the entirety of MI5 minus one day. Three of my four favorite movies of last summer. This year it's stepping up too. Then again, last year gave us Fantastic Four, that racist Owen Wilson movie, and Hitman, and this year is giving us Mechanic 2, Ben-Hur, and Suicide Squad, so it's still August.

Chris Pine definitely has something more than alot of "handsome white dude" star actors do. He needs to do more roles like this. I thought that Hell or High Water movie looked like every generic crime thriller that gets like 55 percent on RT and people forget about in a week (like Triple 9 or something), but I've actually read some reviews for this that say it could be an awards contender if they push it hard enough. Pine and Judd Apatow produced movies saving the summer. God knows it needs it.

Some hope for summer: Apparently that movie Hell or High Water is this summer's version of The Gift- a late summer genre movie that everyone thought looked "meh" but turned out terrific. It's getting exceptional reviews. Plus, Sausage Party, Pete's Dragon, and Kubo are getting excellent word, too. I believe when Gopher says that he heard War Dogs is really good, but Todd Phillips movies are just not for me at all, I can't do that whole bro schtick (even in his better movies like Hangover 1 or Old School). It'd have to get fantastic reviews to convince me that's it tackling that subject in a smart way and not just like Tucker Max with guns. But still, August saving the summer! My birthday month showing out!

This looks like it had the potential to be a sharp comedy that served as a commentary on something important, but instead they turned it into a Todd Phillips bro movie. Love the cast, think it's an interesting concept to make a movie about....loathe the director.

Suicide Squad is a soundtrack desperately in search of a movie. Fresh Prince's charisma alone lifts is above BvS by sheer force of Will. Good to have ya back, Big Willie.

Considering the terrible reviews, months of bad buzz, and the negative will from reception to BvS, the fact that Squad is heading for around 140 OW is insanity. There's clearly massive interest in the DCCU movies, I'll say that much. This brand and these characters have real power. Imagine if they actually had good buzz and good reviews. BvS could have done 185. This could have done 160. It's amazing that something so big feels so much like "what could have been," tbh.

I'm bumping from about 110/115 to around 130. Which is massive, all thingss considered. If this movie had gotten Jurassic World level reviews or even Jason Bourne level reviews, I'd be predicting over 150. But I know that someone like me, a college student with limited income, is probably not seeing this because of the reviews. And two of my older brothers and several of my friends have said the same thing. That is all, of course, anecdotal evidence. But logic dictates that reviews hurt, in today's day and age- and I actually did a data analysis project where I found that while it doesn't matter if reviews are great, they DO benefit on a statistically significant level if a movie is fresh. That is a logical argument backed up by some statistical evidence. I think that reviews cost this 20 million.

This is absolutely going to perform like a sequel- it has references to Man of Steel and a Batman cameo in the trailer, for crying out loud. This is a part of an established franchise. And those are getting more and more frontloaded every year. Plus, the entire marketing campaign/style of the movie was centered towards appealing to the teenage crowd that is the most reliable midnight demographic. I don't see any reason this won't be hugely frontloaded. I do think that the T-Mobile promotion will keep Friday up pretty huge, but I think Saturday is definitely dropping from the true Friday number without previews. If it does 65 today, I'd predict about 40 for Saturday.

Good number. Considering this movie was marketed much more heavily to the teenage midnight crowd than most superhero movies, and the fact that everyone is off school and it is the middle of summer, I think that the preview to weekend IM might be lower than people think. I'm not quite talking Twilight or anything levels, but pretty much the same weekend IM as BvS despite being a more "original" property.

Seeing lots of sellouts for Suicide Squad down home in Miami already, but not too many in D.C. except for theaters with limited seating. I'm thinking 16/48/112.

Jesus Christ, that's a pretty solid number!

I'm just a huge proponent of the argument that when a huge TV event - be it the DNC, a massive NBA or MLB finals game, Mayweather/Paquio a huge football game, the Oscars- that 50 million Americans are spending their night watching, that will hurt box office. 50 million people tuning everything out and spending hours as part of a communal experience- remember, DNC watch parties started at 8- is going to limit the amount of people who can see a movie. We see it time and time again. Even June 19th, which was Father's Day, had only average Sunday drops relative to any other Father's Day, because Game 7 killed business. And Thursday, June 16th, had a massive drop relative to any other non-holiday weekend Thursday. usually, the average Thursday drop is 5%, but that day audiences dropped 19 percent with a game being watched by 30 million. Even I would have gone to see Bourne last night, but I wanted to be home all night for the speech, and I'm sure I'm not some isolated person, even if it is anecdotal. There is statistical evidence to back it up. The big fight during Age of Ultron, the Oscars every year, the Super Bowl and NFC championships every year, and the DNC from four years ago. It's just common sense to think that the same relatively urban/suburban, leftward skewing audience that impacts business when a huge NBA game or the Oscars is on would also impact business for a speech that was watched by even more people.

The same way that Seth Rogen movies are directed at "young" males. I don't mean young like 13, I mean young like 19-30.

Yea, but Bad Moms is a young, female driven film going up against the acceptance speech of the first ever female nominee for President. It's as much of a crossover as there possibly can be. And given that the Bourne movies were made as a direct critique of Bush and post-9/11 flag-waving jingoism, I'd say it skews more liberal than most action franchises, too. I think people are underestimating the potential effects of the DNC. Probably 30 million normal viewers watched it alone, and that didn't count the fact that we are running big watch parties at literally every campaign headquarter throughout the country, which attracted tons and tons of people last night. 50 million people were probably tuned in, and that intersected with the liberal-skewing cores of these two movies.

Worth noting, and I know we hear this alot, that Hillary's speech last night probably got well upwards of 30 million adult viewers (with parties included, I knew of one house that had 100 people but would only count as one viewer), many of whom are the kind of politically interested, left leaning people who like these Bourne movies. So that's pretty good. Puts it right on track for mid 50s opening.

FWIW, this has already sold out a screening near me tonight, and some others are filling up as well. That doesn't usually happen this far in advance of showtime for non-massive movies. This could be bigger than I though. Upping from 42 to 55.

More like Jason Bad am I right guys

Should have named it "Bourne Again." That would have increased the OW box office by 20 million. Bring in that religious movie crowd.

Even the Guardian, a newspaper that has actually featured as protagonists in these very films, said that it was a drop off in quality in their big feature story about the franchise. Probably not the best sign.

Here's how I knew Star Trek Beyond got it- in the opening scenes of space and at the moonbase, it made me actually feel wonder at the possibility of this being a real thing. It made the majesty and awe of space and futuristic sci fi technology actually make me feel something, instead of just being an endless loud canvas of pointless action.

Star Trek Beyond is excellent, and its biggest strength: it's a big studio movie in 2016 that actually remembers why we like blockbusters in the first place. It gets the sense of awe and human scale that defines what makes a good popcorn blockbuster, and loads it up with fun characters and twists to top it all off.

Looks like every other remake that goes for a "modern" and "edgy" new take on the movie that it loses sight of what makes this story worth telling. These sort of remakes tried so hard to bring an "original" spin on old material that they've overcorrected and all become cookie cutter looking bores. But we shall see.