MrPink

I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is a good comparison for this. Obviously the star power in that film was bigger, at least from a leads perspective, but Oppenheimer is not lacking in star power either. And the plot for Hollywood was probably “smaller” in scope and more vague in its marketing in terms of what it was about. Yet it did fairly well in the end even without IMAX.

I say lean drama because I think it’s fair to still define it as a thriller. And that is exactly how Universal described it in their original press release. I also think people are way too hellbent on subject matter and runtime. I care more whether it’s good. And if it’s good, it’ll do fine. Maybe a limited ceiling. But Nolan’s name has already gotten this way more attention and press than a movie about Oppenheimer would normally get otherwise and that is a luxury for his films that’ll likely prevent it from being an outright bomb. And guaranteed IMAX screens will always help juice the gross.

Posters haven’t been too good for this one

The film was always going to lean more drama….why would we expect otherwise? At no point did I expect some battle to be shown off to the side. It has been sold as and directly stated as a thriller by Universal this whole time

Mmmmm I think it was actually trailer 3 lol

Apparently some people have seen it, screenshots are out there, just waiting for that cam rip. Hopefully no later than this evening we get it.

Don’t recall F9 having very good presales to begin with so it’d need to probably pace ahead in the final days

It’s at an 81%. Think it just comes down to some critics (maybe lean top critics?) on the fence are not giving the same kind of soft pass they did for say Vol 2, otherwise the scores would be right in line with it.

The visuals and scale is on point but trailer didn't do much for me tbh. Fairly positive on the first film overall though not enamored.

Trailer has been rated and is 3 min 6 sec long.

Don't think this is for me.

Song came out in 98 and here they are using it in a film set in 1994. Protesting the movie due to this sick discretion

Yordan is an OK player

@Shawn @Porthos Good game =]

No. Light the beam

More I think about it, it's gonna do pretty well domestic, around 140-150m but not terribly well OS. Looking at Dunkirk it would be extremely hard for Oppenheimer to make up for the UK and China's grosses from that OS run. So I'm thinking maybe 300-350m WW.

I think you're getting it wrong, drama fare like this is usually not going to have a major rush. Nolan's films usually leg it out, almost all have 3x or more with the exception of the Dark Knight Rises. So if it's going to underperform, then it's gonna come down to being a disappointment quality wise or opening low in the first place. But with the latter scenario, I just think the brand name and inflated ticket prices is probably gonna be enough to carry it to a solid opening as long as it's good. Stuff like a Man Called Otto and Air make me more confident that despite dry subject matters, Oppenheimer can do fairly well. And sure it's long but audiences won't care so much if the movie's good, really. Hasn't stopped Nolan's other films from being long and still succeeding, plus the exact runtime is not locked down yet, so we're not entirely sure how close to 3hr it actually is.

Barbie is getting a Dolby Cinema release. I would guess it might split some of those with Oppenheimer while Oppenheimer gets all IMAX. As for Interstellar, I think it was a slight underperformer domestically but did really well OS. WB being the OS distributor though meant they were probably really happy with the performance. It's now over 500m OS and trends pretty closely with Inception.

Looking at how Air is doing and adding a large amount of PLF on top of that plus Nolan's name recognition..honestly I'd be quite surprised if it opened under 30m assuming the movie reviews fairly well. And the adult skewing factor and Nolan's usual legs will take that to at least 100m domestic. I don't know if it's gonna be a significant success but I have it pegged for a 35-40m OW and doing some 120m+. I don't think it'll be a flop but the question is if it can breakout and be an unqualified success to me. Despite Tenet being more of a misstep with the audience, the read I'm getting is that people are still generally interested in what he's doing and open to seeing his movies and his pull in IMAX is always gonna help juice his grosses.

Honestly this looks fine and I was not a particular fan of the previous.

Movie is too kind to John Stockton if I were tbh.

Amazon paid a ton of money for it and Air has a pretty unique pay structure for its creatives that resulted in a high budget like that due to the Artists Equity production. Still if this did like 60-70m DOM in this climate, budget aside, that's pretty good given how poor adult dramas were doing last Fall.

Air?