Mango

Without Disney Plus I feel like it definitely would have made $100 million, even if just barely

Where were these articles in 2019? Sure my opening night of NWH had a decent amount of crowd yelling/clapping but Endgame was so much worse. The amount of dialogue I noticed that I missed when I saw it the next weekend was insane.

That didn't seem as much of an opinion on the movie itself but an expected reason hardcore fans (who dislike change) wouldn't like it so namecalling is kinda mean. But yeah that "twist" (it was obviously building to it) was something I actually liked. The characters of Matrix (even in the GOAT original) weren't exactly shrines of personalization (not a bad thing, lots of world building needed to be done) so it was nice to see some happen.

Assuming we manage a full recovery to moviegoing around late 2022/2023 I'm fully expecting the movie to dethrone TFA one of these days to be something out of left field like another Titanic or something. If SW and Avengers can't make a billion it's gonna have to be some sort of phenomenon/zeitgeist movie. I've actually believed this since TFA was doing the numbers in 2015/2016. Once Endgame opened with it's earth-shattering openings for a split second I thought that would do it instead but once it came back down to earth around weeks 3/4 my original expectation was renewed.

Jeez Matrix might not even do $10m

Will be tough to get $90 million with that, but still great nonetheless. A bit more frontloaded than expected, but after such a monster opening it won't matter. $600m is a guarantee and Black Panther is doing down, very outside possibility of Avatar.

I had like this paragraph of shit talking about how much better things look right now than a year ago, and how the Omicron Persei 8 variant is poor timing, more vaccines and boosters are coming, blah blah blah but I also know fuck all about medical science and am not a fortune teller. It's easy to get down after all that's happened but tbh on an optimistic side I do think things are looking pretty good for 2022. I didn't expect us to get this far in 2021 but if we keep pushing through I do like to think there's a light at the end of the tunnel somewhere.

I'm not really in the doom/gloom camp with a lot of others. Very few were expecting Matrix to put up numbers of any significance with the release date/HBO Max two punch. Sing will most certainly perform higher numbers next week than this week, but even that wasn't exactly a "must see", also remember Spidey is arguably the superhero with the most family-audience appeal so I can imagine that is cutting into it as well. Numbers can get better, it's up to the studios though. We need must-see movies that aren't day-and-date streaming or on their way to a Roku or Chromecast near you a few weeks later. I will say one thing, for the box office to thrive again we need the 90-day window back. I don't think this 30-45 day window is going to help things very much. I don't really get why studios are so gung-ho on having the movies streaming so soon. It seems like it would make more sense financially to let a movie make money for 3-4 months at the box office, then reap the rewards of streaming after. You get bank from the theater and people know they can stream it whenever they want once it hits the service. I don't think anyone will immediately unsubscribe to Disney+ if Disney came out and said "Hey, Doctor Strange and Lightyear will run 3-4 months in theaters before coming to streaming" It's coming to the platform regardless. That said, I don't run a studio and have zero actual experience with that kind of shit, so I'm sure on whatever metrics they've studied and stockholders have seen are probably influencing it.

Ah, Crash. From famed writer of Quantum of Solace Paul Haggis

If there was ever a year for Spidey to sweep the Oscars it would probably be this one

Should increase next weekend.

who writes this shit

I don’t get how nearly $400m in 7 days is “boring” after past year and a half a movie was lucky to get $200m but to each their own I guess

Looking at grosses for Yogi Bear and Tangled (same calendar, 2010) I would expect Sing 2 to make more next week than this week.

Disney sucks too and while they are involved with this movie, it's all Sony on a distribution standpoint. They were definitely a lot more pro-theatrical than Disney or WB.

Christmas Eve on Friday will provide a big week to week drop. $50 million from Thurs previews rolled into the Friday total. An 80% week to week drop would still provide a decent gross for the weekend. $20M Fri (-84%) $37M Sat (-50%) $38M Sun (-40%) Even if it did manage $100m for the weekend it's still down 61%

Exactly what I was thinking. I can't really call this movie "bad" though. I think it's competently made for the most part, but I don't know if I would go so far as to say I "liked" it? I appreciated them trying to be different than your run of the mill MCU or Universal monster blockbuster. In typical Wachowski fashion you're presented a lot of concepts, some fairly ambitious, but very few of them actually stick.

Yeah, Matrix might not have gotten far based on audience reception, but had WB moved this to either MLK weekend or Pres Day weekend in Jan-Feb and had it be a fully theatrical release I have no doubt it would have opened to $70-80 million. Where it would have gone from there is anyone's guess, but the opening would be big. The mixed-to-negative audience reception is not why it's bombing, it's bombing because it's widely available on HBO Max and because it got overshadowed hardcore by Spidey.

Tarantino is into movies as NFTs now? Isn't this the same guy that said movie going experience was ruined by digital projection? Weird route to take after that.

lmfao what? That was a terrible fucking cover though.

Doesn’t surprise me. There was a total of 10 people (including me and a friend) at my show yesterday. Parking lot was full, I assume for Spidey/Sing. With 6.4m opening day it might struggle to top the opening weekend of the first movie.

Any idea on Matrix previews?

Sticking with my Tron: Legacy comp. -47% for $34m

Yup. Ignoring the fact that Spidey's Sunday was way better than Tron's, if it followed that pattern exactly throughout the week into the weekend we get a $106m weekend and $500 million total by the 26th. That seems pretty good to me.

I wasn't in the camp of it beating TFA or Endgame in the first place but how exactly does one Monday number (which would only be down 44%) change this. Might be higher than TFA's drop but NWH is gonna have 4 straight weekdays to make bank whereas TFA had 3 before getting hit by Christmas Eve on Thurs. Christmas time grosses are going to vary paced on the calendar year, remember that. TFA/Avatar both dropped around 33% or so and I don't think it's a coincidence the calendar days lined up for them. I'd check out movies that came out in 2010 to see how they did on this date.