lilmac
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Posts posted by lilmac
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Thanks.
Let’s say Bond scores 80-90% on RT. There’s good buzz. It does $300M worldwide. Probably half of what it needs to break even. Could we see 10 million willing to pay $30 USD equivalent worldwide to stream it from their homes? Absolutely.
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Definitely a nostalgia trip. Baumer and I were the most active members on BOM in 2002 and have lots of stories from this era. My boxoffice forum experiences go back to the mid to late 1990s. There was one movie discussion site in particular which had a boxoffice thread. Happy to share Titanic, Lost World, MBFGW, TPM, etc reaction stories to anyone interested.
I really appreciate these year to year deep dives. Thanks for your hard work!
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Vote Trump 2020
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What about Ben Affleck? Tom Holland? Kidding.
I really miss the early Sean Connery Bond. I would have been ok with Fassbender or Stringer Bell 10 years ago but please, not Cavill. Even 2021 will be rocky for the boxoffice. Could be one of the lower grossing Bond films when it ultimately releases.
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Vote Trump 2020
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On 9/20/2020 at 8:22 PM, Darth Homer said:
Imagine if you'd told someone a year ago that New Mutants would have incredible legs and be the #2 movie of summer 2020.
That right there exemplifies 2020. I think $300m WW for Tenet is a win all things considering.
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Vote Trump 2020
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Universal really put themselves in a corner. I wonder if their revenue sharing agreement with AMC applies to PVOD on Peacock or just standalone On-Demand.
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Vote Trump 2020
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If we are not back to normal until late 2021 studios in the interim will have to make hard choices on what to do with their tentpoles. That could accelerate the consolidation of theaters to the big players (that’s if Chapter 13 allows them to survive long enough). It’s dire indeed. Assuming there is a vaccine by say, December it will take months to get a critical mass inoculated and that’s if people are comfortable with the antidote. The plus side is the fact that Tenet made *any* money in theaters bodes well for the films that have broader mass appeal. I could see Fast and Furious cracking $500m at the boxoffice.
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Vote Trump 2020
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I was really rooting for Quibi. Huge fan of Katzenberg since his Disney days. I enjoyed The Most Dangerous game but they needed 10 more shows I liked to sustain my subscription. Enjoyed the model although I know others that were frustrated because you couldn’t view the entire film at once (a key feature of their model). Perhaps MoviePass can acquire them. 🙂
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Vote Trump 2020
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If even Batman got infected, just imagine how many people have gotten COVID and don’t realize it!
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Salutations
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Captain Marvel for sure. Lion King (lack of originality) and Toy Story 4 (ranks 3rd in the franchise). I enjoyed all these films but felt they were overrated.
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Good Variety article. It will be interesting to see if a precedent is set and studios start masking boxoffice returns.
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I was really hoping Tenet would save the day.
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According to recent reports, that $20M “OW” for Tenet was more than just the four day weekend, which was closer to $12M. I don’t see how Bond or WW release this year. Even if Bond films make most of its money overseas.
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The likelihood of a critical mass getting inoculated by mid-2021 is slim (assuming there is a vaccine by the end of the year). The 2021 boxoffice is in jeopardy as well. Studios are going to gave to look long and hard at their 2021 tentpoles, especially those delayed to 2021. We could see most people seeing the major blockbusters only via SVOD.
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On the topic of the film, I’ll reserve final judgment when I can see it again but with subtitles. Dialogue was drowned out or garbled several times. Reminds me of the issues with Bane in TDKR.
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With only 32% seating capacity in NA, Tenet’s domestic OW is roughly equivalent to ~$60m. It’s a good gross actually
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WB could release WW1984 and send it to SVOD 14 days later (while still showing the film on the big screen). Whoever wants to see it in theaters can while audiences also have the option of streaming.
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I can’t wait. I will be going to the theaters for the first time in several months to see Tenet (IMAX) in the States.
My local theater has done a good job in implementing safety measures. If I’m wearing a mask, gloves and I’m distanced from others, there is low risk.-
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There will be ALOT of Super Bowl movie commercials this upcoming year.
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35 minutes ago, Macleod said:
As soon as it's directly apparent that it won't make the November date. Which could be very soon...or it could be weeks away.
I don't think Shang-Chi is making it's May 2021 date, anyway -- it's weeks behind in filming, and even though some production has resumed in Sydney, they don't even seem to fully scaled up, yet.
And who knows what will happen to corporate theaters in the meantime?
I think Eternals (if it's finished) stays in February, Black Widow goes to May, Shang-Chi goes later 2021. I think everything MCU will be pushed back in the cart, obviously...just like everything else is.
But I still also hold out the wild card that Black Widow could indeed go to Disney+
(Laugh all you want, but who saw 2020 coming?)
Do you believe theaters, writ large, will be at enough seating capacity by Feb 2021?Somewhat related - if theaters are at say, 40% capacity due to seating restrictions I don’t know whether it makes more financial cents...I mean sense...to delay releases until a full return to normalcy or say “screw it, let’s see what we get from theaters and go PVOD.”
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3 hours ago, Madhuvan said:
The Mulan model is to earn money mostly from subscribed.
New subscribers are good but they are not that important factor
Agreed. The Mulan model works if it helps Disney bring in more revenue than it spent to make Mulan.
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It will take months to disseminate a vaccine, assuming one comes by this winter. Even April/May 2021 is not looking good from a boxoffice perspective. Theaters will still see limited capacity IMO. Best for BW to push out even further or use the Mulan+ model if it works.
Theatrical to VOD window shortening | 17-31 Day theatrical window for Uni
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by lilmac
They could delay or make a profit via PVOD. My point is that limited boxoffice success + PVOD = path to breaking even