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lilmac

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Posts posted by lilmac

  1. 389+14 = 405 by thursday (405)3rd weekend 55 vs Battleship & Dictator (460M)460+17 weekdays (477M)4th weekend 44 vs MIB on Memorial Day Weekend (521M)521+18 weekdays (539M)5th weekend 21 vs Snow White & the huntsman ( 560M)560+ 9 weekdays (569M)6th weekend 9 vs Madagascar 3 & Prometheus (578M)578+ 5 weekdays (583M)7th weekend 4 vs Rock of Ages (587M)587+ 3 weekdays (586M)8th weekend 1 vs Brave & Abraham Lincoln: VH (587M)587+ 2 weekdays (589M)9th weekend >1 vs G.I Joe: Retribution (590M)Add around 5-10 million for subsequent daysfinal range 595-600M.

    that's pretty close to my $590m projection.
  2. Has anyone mentioned that the weekdays are probably inflated?Mother's Day, an inflated day, was Sunday.So either the movies experience drops on Tuesday or they have a good week and low Friday increases. Happened before. Many times.

    True. Star Trek dropped pretty significantly Tuesday (but had a softer Sunday and Monday drop) but Thor and IM2 stayed steady *shrug*I think we'll see a slight drop.... $7.6 million ish.
  3. True, but The Avengers has far better WOM than IM2. We'll start to see that come into play this weekend.Down 6% from last week wat :mellow:

    My concern is that it is too late for WOM to help it attain SM1 like multipliers. Now the big boys of summer are coming into play, eating up theaters and demand. The Dictator/Battleship combo (equiv to a single $60mil opener) and definitely MIB3, Snow White, on and on. I don't predict big drops for TA, it's a very good movie, but I don't see soft landings either.
  4. Using the same Monday-Weekend ratio as Iron Man, it'd get $65.4m. The three openers this week will hit it a bit harder than Prince Caspian did Iron Man, so I think $58-60m is where it'll land.

    Does anyone have a good explanation for why Iron Man's 3rd weekend decline was so low? Less than expected competition from Prince of Caspian perhaps? It really had the benefit of 3 weekends and THEN Memorial Day. What a great final/OW multiplier it had.
  5. I had it at 570mil and that was with my prediction of 8.4mil for today, i'm still sticking with my 570mil prediction though.

    I'm also less confident in $600 million. Whenever I run the numbers to when the dailies are $100-$150k, I can never get to $600 million, let alone $650m. My final prediction is $590 million.

    I hope I'm off by something like $45 million though.

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