lilmac
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Posts posted by lilmac
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Many thanks Rth! I had 3.3 pegged for Tuesday albeit from a slightly higher Monday estimate. TA is still tracking with IM2 for the most part.Tuesday MIB3 should be around 5.7, TA 3.3, Can mk share goes up a lot on Tues
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Sure, anything can happen but SWATH has better much better buzz IMO.I am not saying MIB3 will have amazing legs but why are people predicting movies like Snow White and Prometheus to have better chances at succeeding?
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My answer is 1984. A much anticipated sequel and 4 franchise starters. It was an incredible year.Ghostbusters is the first movie I remember seeing. I was 5 and we saw it in a drive-in theater. I remember the Puft Man freaking me out.
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THG is still in the top 10, after all these weeks. Amazing. Good hold for TA, about as expected. MIB3 did poorly considering the budget. However OS grosses could mitigate the losses. The movie needs over $650m to break even but it will come $200m short. Still, home video, cable/tv rights, and other miscellaneous streams should cover the shortfall. I'd be surprised if a MIB4 is in the cards.
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I thought Drive was way overrated. Except for the beginning and the brief action scenes, I was bored.
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Yea, I can relate. The cost of movies prevents me from seeing 3D and IMAX releases as many times as the conventional format. I did see Avatar in 3D all six times and TDK in IMAX 2x, I believe. Fastforward to 2012 and I have more bills and financial responsibilities so I don't see me seeing a 3D movie 6x, no matter how good it is.
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I hope my $590 million prediction is way low. The weekend will be huge. Just say TA has a sub-50% drop (going up against SWATH, and MIB3 2nd weekend), could fierce competition from Prometheus the following weekend "make up" for the low drop and put $600m in jeopardy?Shawn whats your range for TA final gross.It could miss 600 million however I think its locked for 590 now.If it falls sub 50% next weekend then 600+ is on.
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Why would the budget hold it back anyway? It's the quality of the script and story if anything.I haven't updated my projections recently, but I'd say $585m is the absolute floor. And that requires a sustained big drop-off after the holiday, which I don't see happening. Its definitely hitting $600m, IMHO.When was the last time a Smith movie opened in 3D and IMAX?If any of his big summer movies opened today with those price advantages, they'd easily be doing $700m-1b or more. MIB3's global ticket sales are definitely underwhelming so far when compared to his previous hits. Its not just the budget holding this back unfortunately.
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That record may last longer than $200m OW. We may see humongous openers in the next several years but a movie with a big opening AND sexy legs? Amazing!On Saturday, THE AVENGERS became the fastest film to reach $500M--23 days. Previous record was AVATAR in 32 days.
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Cjohn - i agree
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Ummm no. The studios like to MAKE money.It doesn't. Studios just like to spend money.
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When the producers are in the boardroom with studio bosses making the pitch replete with powerpoint slides, animatics, storyboards and the like they dont think its going to loss $100 million. There is a big disconnect when you are in production. You firmly believe that what you are doing is going to sell and relate to people. It sucks when the early screenings and critic reviews come in and say the opposite. Yes, delays and such can escalate budgets but oftentimes the mega budgets are due to proposals that make the case and lead all to BELIEVE that this movie is the next Star Wars.You're right, it would be $120m today. So how does that justify the constant barrage of $200m budgets for movies that have no chance of being profitable at that level of cost?
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When the producers are in the boardroom with studio bosses making the pitch replete with powerpoint slides, animatics, storyboards and the like they dont think its going to loss $100 million. There is a big disconnect when you are in production. You firmly believe that what you are doing is going to sell and relate to people. It sucks when the early screenings and critic reviews come in and say the opposite. Yes, delays and such can escalate budgets but oftentimes the mega budgets are due to proposals that make the case and lead all to BELIEVE that this movie is the next Star Wars.You're right, it would be $120m today. So how does that justify the constant barrage of $200m budgets for movies that have no chance of being profitable at that level of cost?
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There have been more $100m+ budgets than one might think by simply looking at production budgets. We are adjusting boxoffice grosses for inflation but not budgets. For example, Juassic Park did not cost a mere $75 million to produce, not in 2012 dollars.Yeah, no kidding. It's just fucking crazy when you consider how much they actually need to make in order to break even. So many movies these days have ridiculous budgets that no one in their right mind would think, "Yeah, that movie will obviously break even."
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I'm sticking with my $50/$80m prediction for MIB3.
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Nacho Libre?? haha
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Depends on how many channels you have.Here where I live I can watch stuff like SW, Godfather, Casablanca and so an at least once a year on TV.Don't get it. Is it harder to catch those classics on american television?
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Close. :-)Hmm...why not Potter? Oh, right, they're the devil.
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..including re-releases for the old heads.
TPM - 8
TFA - 7
Dark Knight - 6
Avatar - 6
ROTK - 6 (i think)
Batman Begins - 5 (I am not sure why I saw BB 5x. It was good but 2x good not 5)
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Yea, I was really looking forward to an Battle Angel Alita flick but oh well. I think JC sees Avatar 2/3 as simply an aspect of his humanitarian/science work and will make no other movies afterward.
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Wed - 3.9Thurs - 3.2Friday - 7.7Sat - 10.7Sun - 10.1-10.2Mon - 8$511m as of Monday, 28th
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Thanks Rth. This is good.$3.9 is a 15% drop, compared to 23-25% the previous 2 Wednesdays.
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. You are so right. After the $80m opening, I wasnt sure it would pass TDK let alone DH2. TA has had a more entertaining run so far this year when one considers the OW, 2nd weekend, fastest to Fill in the Blank, etc.The fact that TA got over 200m in its OW wasn't as impressive as the way it got it. People were starting to think a 100m OD was going to come before a 200m OW the way films have gotten so frontloaded with midnight openings. It was really cool to see a film start out with a still huge 80m, more than 11m from the OD record, and destroy the OW record by 38m. TA's Saturday and Sunday performances are the highlight of its run.
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Seriously Baumer? A memo from Disney? I glad they are reading these forums. Many posters have been tracking the b.o. for many years and are quite good at tracking.I actually got a memo from Disney and they told me they are afraid of the warm weather than is gripping much of the north eastern US and southh west Canada, so they are pulling it this weekend from all theaters but about 500.I expect TA to drop by about 80% this weekend.It might not hit 500 now.
Wednesday numbers
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by lilmac