MattW
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Posts posted by MattW
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Very strong finish to the month, almost $750m, strongest March post pandemic with ease. I thought the year would be struggling more but it’s not doing too bad so far, ahead of 2022 by a healthy margin.
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Even if total “Friday” is 31 that still means true Friday of 21.6 or even slightly more. But I still expect Keyser’s 23-26 range holds, DL just being conservative.
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7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
Was Godzilla’s $9.3m from 10 years ago midnights only? Or Thursday previews?
Godzilla Warner / Legendary FRI, 05/16/2014 7PM THU $9.300 M $38.411 M 4.130 $93.188 M 10.020 -
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Was hoping the movie would be about jesse plemons and those shades. Am disappointed.
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Only reason to fudge up to 45 is so that it's bigger than afterlife, probably to appease someone internally is my guess, I seriously doubt anyone outside of Sony cares about that. And the difference will be made up for in the coming days/weeks, the actual dom total won't be affected.
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Sounds reasonable to me, and would be a solid opening.
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Is it a spoiler to link the China TV spot and poster?
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https://deadline.com/2024/03/godzilla-x-kong-the-new-empire-box-office-projection-1235860199/
QuoteAfter pouring over $200M currently into the domestic box office with Dune: Part Two, Legendary Entertainment and Warner Bros. have more cash to shower on exhibition with the Easter weekend March 29 theatrical release of Godzilla x. Kong: The New Empire. Currently projections are at $45M+ (don’t be shocked if it hits $50M) for the second Adam Wingard directed title in the Legendary Monsterverse.
At that level in opening weekend that will feasibly propel the Godzilla and Kong franchise past the $2 billion mark at the global box office.
At the low-end, the movie will rank as the fourth best domestic debut out of 5, the best being 2014’s Godzilla ($93.1M) and the lowest being 2021’s Godzilla vs. Kong (also helmed by Wingard) which posted a 3-day of $31.6M portion in a 5-day run of $48.1M. Even though that movie went day-and-date on HBO Max due to Covid, the movie was pivotal in bringing audiences back to major market theaters after they reopened a couple of weeks prior in March 2021. Godzilla vs. Kong at $470.1M worldwide is the highest grossing day-and-date streaming theatrical title ever.
Similar to Godzilla vs. Kong, New Empire is taking advantage of the robust Easter moviegoing weekend, last year seeing the second best opening ever for the holiday with Illumination/Universal’s Super Mario Bros Movie ($166.4M). Warner Bros/DC’s 2016 title Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice continues to hold the record opening for Easter weekend with $181M.
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Out of curiosity I asked what chatgpt thought GxK would open to
Not all that interesting, but it did come up with something close to what BOT is collectively thinking right now, maybe a touch higher.
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Enjoyed it very much but couldn’t help wondering, how does Jessica Ferguson and her little riding coach get off the worm when they get to their destination?
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Based on the B&T thread I'd guess the true Thursday number is slightly under 10m and they rounded up. I'm feeling like it'll end up high 70s total through Sunday, 77-80m. Quite good.
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Some GxK talk in the buzz and tracking thread, count me with those not really feeling this one. The trailer makes it look like it’s jumped the shark to me. I’ll guess this opens on a similar level as Godzilla vs Kong, 40-45m
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Feb 360, not great bob.
Incidentally Bob Marley saved the month by overperforming (at least by my own expectations).
March I'll say about
650:
120 from holdovers
200 Dune
180 for the March 8th releases
40 for the March 15th releases
50 for the March 22nd releases, I'm not feeling much for ghostbusters, but I know many other are so we'll see.
Godzilla and Kong manage to squeeze their OW into the month, maybe 50m.
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Probably has been noted elsewhere but it did $754k the first Sunday, $1.764k 2nd Sunday, and $2.516 third.
With around a million today leading into the weekend and the holiday on Monday there's a chance it could actually increase again on the 4th Sunday. I'm looking for a good comp but not really finding any, would need +135% Friday +60% Saturday -20% Sunday to hit $3m this Sunday. Those bumps are probably too big for a rated R movie, but not impossible.Nevermind, only 3 increasing sundays.
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Continuing with the month by month predictions I'll say
Jan - $400m
Feb - $350m
Mar - $550m
Looking at the year as a whole I think it's an open question if it can match 2022's total. In fact if China does as well this year as it did last year then 2024 could be the year that China passes the Domestic market.
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Comscore says 2023 did in fact hit $9 billion, another example of mojo not quite capturing the entire market, only 99% of it.
In spite of there not being a halo movie over the holiday period 2023's december total is higher than 2022's, $735-740m vs $680m, though it was still only ~63% of the previous December average. Looking at the list of December releases makes 2023 look pretty solid though, 2-5 did quite a bit better than the last 2 years, and 6-25 is very close to the previous average December:
Month total #1 movie #s 2-5 #s 6-12 #s 13-25 Rest 2023 ~740 133.6 229.4 216 127.1 33.9 % of month 18.1 31 29.2 17.2 4.6 2022 677.9 401 181.3 65.3 21.3 9 % of month 59.2 26.7 9.6 3.1 1.3 2021 923.2 573 182.9 114.1 42.6 10.6 % of month 62.1 19.8 12.4 4.6 1.1 2019 1148.2 390.7 470.5 174.1 82.9 30 2018 1071.7 199.1 369 288.6 168.8 46.2 2017 1325 517.2 385 237.2 156.6 29 2016 1189.6 408.2 384.7 225.9 139.4 31.4 2016-2019 Avg 1183.6 378.8 402.3 231.5 136.9 34.1 % of month 32 34 19.6 11.6 2.9 2023 was reasonably representative of the prepandemic level with the #1 halo movie left off. If a 300-400m grossing movie was added on top of everything else that's a normal December in the before-times, but I'm sure we all recognize the market wouldn't have been able to handle that, the rest of the movies would very likely have suffered.
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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-2024-lag-behind-2023-1235765702/
QuoteIn China, box office revenue is expected to achieve a modest year-over-year gain of five percent in 2024 as the world’s most populous country embraces local fare over Hollywood product. Revenue is expected to hit $7.9 billion next year, compared to a projected $7.6 billion in 2023.
2024 might be the year. Personally I think US+Canada will come in much closer to 2022's level than THR and DL are saying, and if so this could be the big one!
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Something I come back to every winter is comparing different holiday schedules to see how much of an advantage/disadvantage it can give. So a few days ago I looked at it again and took a few ratios of the holiday period compared to days before and after, and really the only hard conclusion is that the legs of the movie matter more than the holiday schedule. I suspect Christmas/NY day on Thursday is the best schedule but looking at individual movies I can’t really prove it. Christmas Eve on Sat is obviously the worst but again a movie with that schedule and good legs will do better than a movie with a good schedule and bad legs, eg rogue one and SW9.
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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-forecast-2024-2025-movies-1235757052/
QuoteIf projections are right, domestic box office in 2024 could top out at $7.5 billion to $8 billion, compared to an expected $8.8 billion to $8.9 billion this year, say multiple studio executives who spoke with The Hollywood Reporter (a few are more bullish in thinking $8 billion to $8.5 billion is possible).
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All told, the global box office could lose out on $2 billion or more because of the 2024 movies that were bumped to 2025
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“The reality is that the box office isn’t the same as it was before. There have been two seismic shocks in the past few years — first the pandemic and now the strikes. At the same time, streaming exploded,” says analyst Rich Greenfield of LightShed Ventures.
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At this juncture, no one is sure when, or if, the North American box office will return to pre-pandemic levels, or $11 billion annually. Nor is 2023 revenue likely to cross $9 billion, as originally expected
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One startling stat is the year-over-year dip in the number of wide releases — films that play on 2,000 or more screens (this includes rereleases and specialty films that platform slowly). As of Dec. 13, there were approximately 82 such wide releases on the calendar, compared to an estimated 97 to 99 in 2023...
“The calendar for next year is in rough shape, and studios need to be clear-eyed,” says NRG head of film Ray Subers.
Ah, so that's where Ray Subers went.
QuoteBox office analysts are far more bullish on the back half of 2024, led by Marvel’s untitled Deadpool threequel, which opens in July. And many believe the downturn at the animation box office could be reversed when summer pics Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 come out. Other summer releases hoping to achieve event status include The Fall Guy, If and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Year-end notable mentions include Wicked, Mufasa: The Lion King, Karate Kid and Sonic the Hedgehog 3.
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Adds Dergarabedian, “It’s pretty clear there is a correlation between volume and box office. Everyone needs to get out there and take meaningful shots to get the box office back to normal.”
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I’m already hearing rumblings that WB is so bullish on Villeneuve’s vision for Dune that Part Three has been already been greenlit with a 2027 release date in mind. WB sees Part Two as a home run, and internally, I’m hearing the studio is already projecting an opening north of $100 million. That may be optimistic, but given the trailer above, hardly out of the question.
Interesting.
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The holiday run looks like it'll be better than I was thinking, but there were too many other Nov/Dec to make up for so the year will end up a bit under 9b, almost 80% of the previous average.
Back in early 2022 I was thinking ~70% would be the new normal so this is better than that at least. Next year will drop for sure, with 2025 benefitting. So the goal for the next two years together should be at least 18b.
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Movie theater industry analyst Eric Wold cut his domestic 2024 full-year forecast from $9.6 billion to $8.6 billion and his 2025 estimate from $10.29 billion $9.92 billion.
Before the strikes I didn't think 2024 would be better than 2023, I thought at best it would come close.
A bit premature but 2025's schedule does look pretty good, and if it gets to the 10b neighborhood that'd be quite the feat.
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Not sure how big a contributor this is but for me bringing the tv characters into the movies makes the movie seem cheaper, like a made for tv movie. Ever since the shield show it seemed clear to me the tv characters wouldn't work in the movies. And they kept them out for the most part. But that could be mostly just me.
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What do Saturday presales look like and will walkups be slightly better... Down 10% from Friday is 32, Sunday down a normal 30% is 23 or so. Yeah, I'm thinking joker keeps the October crown.
BOT Top 25 movies of 2023 | Reveal complete. The forum has bombed
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
I made the review list for oppenheimer? Wow high praise, thanks.