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MattW

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    2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Summer 2023 I think will end up about 10% ahead of summer 2022, about 15% behind the prepandemic avg summer. 

    But of course you also have to look at the "cost of goods" as they say. Without really delving into it I'd guess hollywood collectively spent a lot more getting their product to market this year than in most years. 

    Weekday numbers July 24-27

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by MattW

    My rough sketch for Opp has it go down to 9 on Thursday, and make it over 300 total.

     

    But I think there's a real chance that the heavy must-see-on-a-big-screen draw wears off after a few weeks and the legs soften considerably, and it comes down to that 250-275 range. 

    • Like 2

    C’MON BARBIE LET'S GO PARTY...AT LOS ALAMOS | BARBENHEIMER WEEKEND THREAD | We’re Thriving in our Plastic Fantastic Era | Mother Mothered with 162M | Daddy Exploded with 82.4M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

    I don't think this will happen, in fact I give it less than a 10% chance of happening; but could Oppenheimer cross $100M on Monday?

     

    F: $33M

    S: $28M (24% increase from True Friday, $61M cume)

    S: $25M (11% decrease, $86M cume)

    M: $14M (44% decrease, $100M cume)

     

    IMAX and other PLF screens will stay packed/sold out all week and they are already comprising about 50% of the film's gross. That percentage will only increase as time passes. $100M after four days seems improbable but it's not impossible. 

    Possible, I have penciled in a 50% drop for Monday but that's probably too conservative, the spillover effect could easily be bigger. 

    C’MON BARBIE LET'S GO PARTY...AT LOS ALAMOS | BARBENHEIMER WEEKEND THREAD | We’re Thriving in our Plastic Fantastic Era | Mother Mothered with 162M | Daddy Exploded with 82.4M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

    so we are a few hours from media declaring barbie the biggest ow of 2023; made me wonder: is there an agreed-upon method, among box office followers, of converting 6-day, 5-day, or 4-day ows into 3-days?

     

    if there is, what would mario be? guessing something like 185, but I'm just going of a hunch

    My method is find a comparable Friday opening during the same month, Furious 7 in 2015 for example opened over easter weekend as well, then compare the first 7 days and take the weekend ratio. 180-something is what I come up with as well.

    • Like 1

    C’MON BARBIE LET'S GO PARTY...AT LOS ALAMOS | BARBENHEIMER WEEKEND THREAD | We’re Thriving in our Plastic Fantastic Era | Mother Mothered with 162M | Daddy Exploded with 82.4M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, M37 said:


    ::looks up own club history::


    Listen, none of us are perfect at this …

    I embrace my awfulness at predictions. I've made some stinkers. 

     

    I do have one golden club moment, I made a club saying Ep8 would be closer to rogue 1 than TFA, and then in there I said something about solo essentially bombing and it ended up being right on the mark. 

    2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    With both barbie and oppy blowing up July 2023 will end up topping last year's July by a small margin, but August is going to absolutely destroy the last 2 years, could even come close to 2017's level (admittedly a weak Aug). I bet MI7 also plays strong through the month and all three get a big bump for labor day giving Sept a strong start as well.

    Oppenheimer (2023)

    in Review That Movie! (Spoilers Allowed)

    Posted

    Incredible movie, very Nolan. The sound is almost overwhelming, the music builds and holds the tension very well. I'm not the person to judge acting but for me it all worked, Cillian Murphy is great, always has been. 

     

    One thing I missed is Rami Malek was in there for like a minute before be was giving apparently very credible, convincing testimony that completely took down Strauss, and I didn't see why his character asserting everything should be the last word on the subject. 

     

    It's almost a horror movie-like ending,  it was a success, they did it,  but that win is inextricable from the rest of history up to today and the permanent risk that is with us every day now. 

    • Like 2
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