MattW
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Posts posted by MattW
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Movie theater industry analyst Eric Wold cut his domestic 2024 full-year forecast from $9.6 billion to $8.6 billion and his 2025 estimate from $10.29 billion $9.92 billion.
Before the strikes I didn't think 2024 would be better than 2023, I thought at best it would come close.
A bit premature but 2025's schedule does look pretty good, and if it gets to the 10b neighborhood that'd be quite the feat.
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Not sure how big a contributor this is but for me bringing the tv characters into the movies makes the movie seem cheaper, like a made for tv movie. Ever since the shield show it seemed clear to me the tv characters wouldn't work in the movies. And they kept them out for the most part. But that could be mostly just me.
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What do Saturday presales look like and will walkups be slightly better... Down 10% from Friday is 32, Sunday down a normal 30% is 23 or so. Yeah, I'm thinking joker keeps the October crown.
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September 471.7, 72% of the prepandemic avg about 650-660.
Summer 19% over 2022, 6% under the previous average.
YTD we're at 25% over 2022, 18% under the average.
Rest of the year looks much better than it did just a month ago, but I still don't see it bringing up the YTD average, I'll guess 2023 ends up just north of 9 billion.
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Dec 1 seems like a weird release date, every other post thanksgiving release has done quite poorly. Maybe this is the one that breaks the mold though, who knows.
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On 6/23/2023 at 11:53 AM, MattW said:
Oct will likely be as bad or worse than last year looking at the schedule.
How the turn tables have tabled.
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1 hour ago, BoxOfficeZ said:
57% For Taylor Swift, 43% for AMC. Will be a massive return on the 20 million spent.
Quote43% stays with the theaters and 57% of the gross goes to the Swifts and AMC.
I read this as saying the theater playing the movie gets 43%, the 57% likely mostly goes to Swift but AMC gets part of that by playing distributor. So AMC overall will get more than 43%, but cinemark for example will only get 43% of the shows it has.
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It's interesting that Friday is so far just 'opening night', not a full day of shows. Will be a bit like Thursday previews but being Friday I'd guess relatively bigger, maybe more like a July thurs previews.
Being Oct theaters likely have somewhat more staffing issues with kids being in school and that might explain the weekend only scheduling. Or is it the swift team that specified weekends only?
A lot of curiosities here.
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August will come in at about 810m, basically at the prepandemic average level which was about 850.
Summer season I think ends up just a touch over 4 billies, about 18% higher than last summer and 7% under the before-times average of ~4.3b
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I think doing half price would be a better balance for ncd, premium screens still get their due while regular screen matinees are mostly in the same $3-4 range.
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Superman legacy under superman returns Dom and ww is my guess. Club coming soon
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57 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
Great job from the 2022 movies.
Are legs longer post-pandemic? Initially I thought they were getting shorter but for the movies that catch the zeitgeist it seems they are lengthening.
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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:
I don't think Charlie has any early access to previews. He is extrapolating from tracking data.
I've been assuming that he's putting together some sort of weighted average of the reports here.
Same for ec, all his predictions are just from following the b&t thread
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Comscore definitely captures more of the market than mojo or the-numbers do, so 1370 is the more authoritative number.
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4 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:
See you when Crayola endgame makes $6B.
Yeah right, you know they're gonna rush Crayons v Magic Markers too soon and the whole thing falls apart
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28 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Its likely that the theaters lost by Barbie could be smaller ones. Could be even independent one. Those theaters would not even be playing Oppenheimer. Plus Oppenheimer always had limited shows even in big multiplexes while Barbie has way bigger release. Loss of these small theaters will have zero impact to its BO.
There's one specialty theater by me that plays mostly foreign and independent films and they'll play a blockbuster every so often I assume as a boost so they can stay in business in their main niche. That's what I assume are a big portion of the theaters that drop these big movies after just 2 weeks.
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https://deadline.com/2023/08/barbie-oppenheimer-july-box-office-record-1235452876/
....the second-best record for the month with $1.37 billion per Comscore...
Mojo and the-numbers don't quite capture everything, 2nd best july and thus 2nd best month of all time.
August looks much better than last year but I don't see it getting back to the pre-pandemic level. Over 600m would be great.Edit, it's gonna be way bigger than 600, maybe 750ish?Also August is surprisingly consistent, 2016-2019 averages 843m, 2012-2019 averages 871m, and take it back to 2007 and it actually goes up to 880m. And August 1999 made 848m which with normal inflation would be over 1500 today.
Which has me curious, to serve so many more people back then were there more theaters then? More screens? Or were all showtimes just fuller on average
Aug 15 edit: ~800m for August
Sept 500
Oct 450
Nov 750
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47 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Cinemark announced that the July 2023 domestic box office performance was the company’s highest-grossing month in company history, corroborating the company’s sentiment that consumer demand for theatrical moviegoing is as strong as ever.
Eh, stretching the truth here, $1390m in july 2011 inflates to 1900 today.
They're also showing example of the increasing winner take all nature of the market, even nominally july 2016 was higher, but not for cinemark, the pandemic hurting the smaller local chains while the bigger ones are here on the other side to take a higher share of a smaller total.
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If equalizer wasn't opening labor day weekend I would be completely on board with barbenheimer going over Ep7 as most big summer movies get a healthy bump that weekend. And it could still happen this time but I'm not 100% sold. TFA will pull ahead this week and next weekend so there'll be some catching up to do after that.
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24 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:
On one hand, this conversation is getting out of wack, but on the other hand, we did pass 75 pages
204 opening weekend down to probably ~80 second weekend... Barbie+Oppy legs not looking great
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I remember finding this sketch quite funny
But if history had gone differently I probably wouldn't find it funny. So make of that what you will.
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2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:
WB be like:
Yeah right, Barbie is a drop in the bucket with all the DC movies coming out that will cost them and not make anything
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3 hours ago, Noctis said:
Barbie is gonna defeat DH2 as WB's highest grossing film worldwide.
Batman v superman couldn't do it, so Barbie v Ken had to step in.
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2 hours ago, Shawn said:
Share your final 2nd weekend predictions by 11:59pm ET tonight for Barbie and Oppy.
Closest on each gets a free month of Gold tier (no ads, more likes, etc.).
Must quote this post so it's easy to keep track!
Originally had 78 and 46 but with the way the murmurings are going I think they'll be higher.
Barbie: 88,250,250
Oppy: 48,750,750
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2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
The holiday run looks like it'll be better than I was thinking, but there were too many other Nov/Dec to make up for so the year will end up a bit under 9b, almost 80% of the previous average.
Back in early 2022 I was thinking ~70% would be the new normal so this is better than that at least. Next year will drop for sure, with 2025 benefitting. So the goal for the next two years together should be at least 18b.