MattW

Bumping this up in case anyone else wants to join.

Keeping all tracking in this thread makes it easier to find in the future, also simplifies posting for those willing to put in the time to track multiple movies rather than switch between multiple threads and post the same comps mutliple times. My thoughts at least.

Deathly Hallows 2 jumped the equivalent of about 50m over DH1 in today's dollars, but then I believe 3D was a big part of that and I'm not sure how much the effect was. Episode 3 jumped over Ep2 about 50m (for the 4 day opening for both movies) as well adjusting both up to today's prices, in that case though 3 years had passed. Not apples to apples in either case but the opportunity seems to be there.

Holy hell this looks amazing. Should go over Fast 8 for sure on the domestic side, overseas at least 75% as much, 230+ and 750+

I added a second theater in my area, total of 4138 seats sold out of 5706 available, 72.5% and a dollar value of $34,498 for the 2 locations (going by the lowest available price for each seat) for Thursday previews only, meaning for 3600 theaters that would be about $62.1m. Some overperforming locations here to be at that level more than a week out. And I think more showtimes will be assigned as well.

I didn't think I'd get quoted for my meager presales report, so here's a bit of a more in depth one at just one theater. I think it's a 14 screen theater, and currently there are 9 showtimes for Thursday night, with only one IMAX showtime at 10pm, so either the 6pm time is reserved by a very prestigious group or they're waiting to post that showtime bc it'll sell out instantly. sold capacity % 427 482 87 233 277 84 179 250 71 111 178 62 imax 548 616 89 114 210 54 85 225 38 304 482 63 10 277 3 Total 2011 2997 67 I must have been counting the imax seats when there was a 3d showing bc counting now there are 616 total seats in there. At normal adult prices this currently represents $22,417.78 but many of the tickets will seniors and many will be children, hard to estimate what the true value will be, but even if every ticket was senior/child priced it would still be $15,962.47 and if you multiplied that by 3800* theaters that would be a total Thursday preview of $60m. Obviously a bigger theater like this one is not representative, but still, it's gonna be big. After presales started I was thinking 45-55, now I'm thinking it could land more in the 50-60m range Thursday night. *TDKR had 3700 locations for midnights, HPDH2 had 3800, the other big movies didn't have a theater count anywhere but that's probably the upper limit for preview showings like this.

Another version of this contest. This time a month of premium each for the closest predictions of the domestic opening, overseas opening and the worldwide opening as reported by boxofficemojo on Monday afternoon. The more specific you make it the less of a need for tiebreakers. If necessary though the tiebreaker is the chinese total opening in yuan as reported on Maoyan on Monday at the same time that mojo has their actuals up (or that number converted to dollars with Monday's exchange rate since I'm sure some people will post a dollar figure for it). I'm not sure what my final guess will be yet but here's a starter: Domestic: $282,525,000 Overseas: $670,125,000 Worldwide: $952,650,000 China: ¥1,715,000,000 2 weeks to think about it, watch the various tracking and presales threads, and get your predictions in. This will close Tuesday April 23rd at 12pm pacific because actual numbers from a few countries will start coming that afternoon/evening I believe. (Here's a sheet with everyone so far, if you want to check and make sure I didn't make any mistakes (like I did last time) that'd be helpful.)

https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-u-s-opening-weekend-projections-can-sequel-get-close-to-300m-1202588329/ Yes, Endgame can get to this box office threshold, even with a running time of 3 hours and 2 minutes. (Avengers: Infinity War had a running time of 2 hours and 29 minutes, and Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens clocked in at 2 hours and 16 minutes.) Math provided to Deadline by B.O. analysts supports this projection range even if Endgame has only four or five showtimes a day, at a 70% capacity at 12,000 U.S. auditoriums. TW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross Change Theaters Change Avg. Est. Screens Change Avg. Est. Shows Change Avg. Total Gross Week # 1 Iron Man 3 BV $174,144,585 - 4,253 - $40,946 13,200 - $13,193 163,400 - $1,066 $174,144,585 1 With the same number of screens per theater IW would have had 13,800 screens, and 172k showtimes.

Maybe fandango decided they didn't like someone else tracking their data and nixed it for good. I'm sure they know about it at this point

I don't have hard numbers but it looks a lot like Force Awakens in my area, and I think theaters around me outperform for star wars relative to superhero stuff. With the presales reports I'm thinking the chance it opens under infinity war is probably in the 10% range, 255-285 seems like a good 95% CI right about now.

The 520 seat IMAX showtime that I bought for had about 50 seats sold 10 minutes after tickets went on sale. Now 4 hours later it's at 400 sold, front few rows and way off to the sides are all that's left.

Godzilla 2014 did 250m OS-Ch with notoriously bad week to week drops, I think this one will do 300+ and 450-500m total overseas.

The 2 week commitment means Hellboy, After, Little and Missing Link may have obligated showtimes thursday night but their time is up before Endgame starts showtimes Friday morning. Only Llorona, Breakthrough and Penguins will be inside the 2 week period still. So I think there's room for showtimes to fill the gap between IW and Endgame's runtime, but until presale numbers roll in indicating otherwise I still don't think it'll match the OW. Speaking of, do we have akvalley presale numbers for the leadup to the week of release, or just the MTWTh the week of?

2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 1 $2,048.40 $1,332.50 $1,153.30 $1,669.00 $1,104.10 $1,276.50 $1,519.60 $1,341.50 $1,063.20 2 $1,346.90 $1,263.50 $1,056.10 $1,515.00 $956.00 $1,215.40 $1,108.60 $1,123.80 $1,025.50 3 $1,309.50 $1,236.00 $1,028.60 $1,405.00 $773.30 $970.80 $1,084.90 $1,045.70 $960.30 4 $1,242.80 $1,034.80 $1,023.80 $1,331.20 $758.50 $958.40 $1,021.10 $712.20 $825.50 5 $1,146.60 $962.10 $966.60 $1,157.30 $755.40 $865.00 $877.20 $694.70 $752.60 6 $889.10 $880.20 $875.50 $856.10 $747.90 $788.70 $829.70 $665.70 $698.50 7 $855.00 $870.30 $873.60 $851.00 $714.40 $743.60 $757.90 $626.10 $623.90 8 $791.10 $863.80 $814.00 $682.30 $710.60 $723.20 $746.90 $586.80 $591.80 9 $778.90 $854.00 $783.10 $621.80 $709.00 $668.00 $694.40 $563.70 $543.10 10 $653.70 $821.80 $746.80 $595.70 $675.10 $644.60 $624.00 $559.90 $494.90 2017 was impressive, 10 hollywood movies over 800m plus 1 Chinese movie. Will this year do better?

I was kidding about under glass, but 8pm thursday isn't the final total? The weekend has started, if that's not the final then what is?

Halloween: 182,821 Us: 94,216 That's why Us is selling more, it has waaayyy more good seats still open than Halloween had at the same point. Also half of Halloween is 38m. Us < Glass confirmed.

I put 94m on boxofficechamps, regretting it now, but it really seems like it should be doing 70+. I will be very surprised if it's more presale heavy than Halloween.

Completely useless digression, I went to look at signs and sixth sense and found an error on mojo. They list week #5 for sixth sense as 27.8m, but it's actually 34.2m. Edit, a lot of the numbers for sixth sense don't add up, not sure which are the correct ones

I agree, even saying it will be in the same neighborhood is a stretch considering what halloween was last year and that it was released at the right time of year. At the same time when presales get this big for a completely original movie, predicting 75+ seems like a stretch as well. Inside Out is still the biggest opening for an original movie I believe.

I'm guessing it'll be at 375 through Thursday and should make about 75m more for the 2nd weekend, 450+ on sunday.

Flame wars are more fun than circle jerking like these guys on twitter ⬆️

Guess I'm out of the loop, very cool. It'll cruise well past 700m then.

Oct 28: 12.2 Nov 4: 91.7 (+79.5) Nov 11: 185.3 (+93.6) Nov 18: 256.4 (+71.1; -24.0%) Nov 25: 320.3 (+63.9; -10.1%) Dec 2: 375.7 (+55.4; -13.3%) Dec 9: 423.0 (+47.3; -14.6%) Dec 16: 455.5 (+32.5; -31.3%) Dec 23: 482.2 (+26.7; -17.8%) Dec 30: 513.3 (+31.1; +16.5%) Jan 6: 550.0 (+36.7; +18.0%) Jan 13: 575.55 (+25.55; -30.4%) Jan 20: 596.0 (+20.5; -19.8%) Jan 27: 611.6 (+15.6; -23.9%) Feb 3: 624.4 (+12.8; -17.9%) Feb 10: 634.1 (+9.7; -24.2%) Feb 17: 642.1 (+8.0; -17.5%) Feb 24: 647.7 (+5.6; -30.0%) Mar 3: 654.3 (+6.6; +17.8%) Mar 10: 660.5 (+6.2; -6.1%) Still going strong. Another 20m? 25?

Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $333,836,259 29.2% + Foreign: $809,100,000 70.8% = Worldwide: $1,142,936,259 Feb 10: 792.5 (+8.3) Feb 17: 800.7 (+8.2) Feb 24: 805.9 (+5.2) Mar 3: 808.2 (+2.3) Mar 10: 809.1 (+0.9) Pretty much done now, $810m overseas total and might hit up to 335 domestic = $1145m

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-marvel-eyes-125m-us-bow-at-box-office-1192178 Marvel's first female-fronted superhero pic, starring Brie Larson, is tracking to open this weekend to a mighty $125 million to $145 million at the North American box office, where revenue year to date is down 26 percent over 2018 following a dismal February, which hit a 17-year low. Some even think the movie could hit $150 million through Sunday. Either way, Captain Marvel is poised to score the second-biggest opening for a Marvel Studios title introducing a new character behind last year's Black Panther, which debuted domestically to $202 million in February 2018. The Marvel and Disney tentpole also looks to come in ahead of DC's Wonder Woman ($103 million). Overseas, Captain Marvel is tracking to open to $150 million or more. It touches down in every major market this week timed to its U.S. launch save for Japan. My own guess is right around 140m. Presales have been incredible, and I'm thinking that there's some hunger games type demand, which was presale heavy compared to other franchises at the time.